Downscaling large-scale climate variability using a regional climate model: the case of ENSO over Southern Africa   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Damien Boulard  Benjamin Pohl  Julien Crétat  Nicolas Vigaud  Thanh Pham-Xuan 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(5-6):1141-1168

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Climate variability and trends in downscaled high-resolution simulations and projections over Metropolitan France   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Robert Vautard  Thomas Noël  Laurent Li  Mathieu Vrac  Eric Martin  Philippe Dandin  Julien Cattiaux  Sylvie Joussaume 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(5-6):1419-1437

In order to fulfill the society demand for climate information at the spatial scale allowing impact studies, long-term high-resolution climate simulations are produced, over an area covering metropolitan France. One of the major goals of this article is to investigate whether such simulations appropriately simulate the spatial and temporal variability of the current climate, using two simulation chains. These start from the global IPSL-CM4 climate model, using two regional models (LMDz and MM5) at moderate resolution (15–20 km), followed with a statistical downscaling method in order to reach a target resolution of 8 km. The statistical downscaling technique includes a non-parametric method that corrects the distribution by using high-resolution analyses over France. First the uncorrected simulations are evaluated against a set of high-resolution analyses, with a focus on temperature and precipitation. Uncorrected downscaled temperatures suffer from a cold bias that is present in the global model as well. Precipitations biases have a season- and model-dependent behavior. Dynamical models overestimate rainfall but with different patterns and amplitude, but both have underestimations in the South-Eastern area (Cevennes mountains) in winter. A variance decomposition shows that uncorrected simulations fairly well capture observed variances from inter-annual to high-frequency intra-seasonal time scales. After correction, distributions match with analyses by construction, but it is shown that spatial coherence, persistence properties of warm, cold and dry episodes also match to a certain extent. Another aim of the article is to describe the changes for future climate obtained using these simulations under Scenario A1B. Results are presented on the changes between current and mid-term future (2021–2050) averages and variability over France. Interestingly, even though the same global climate model is used at the boundaries, regional climate change responses from the two models significantly differ.  相似文献   

Evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a global changing climate     

Aude Lemonsu  Raphaëlle Kounkou-Arnaud  Julien Desplat  Jean-Luc Salagnac  Valéry Masson 《Climatic change》2013,116(3-4):679-692

The evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a changing climate is analyzed from long-term offline numerical integrations including a specific urban parameterization. This system is forced by meteorological conditions based on present-climate reanalyses (1970–2007), and climate projections (2071–2099) provided by global climate model simulations following two emission scenarios (A1B and A2). This study aims at quantifying the impact of climate change on air temperature within the city and in the surroundings. A systematic increase of 2-meter air temperature is found. In average according to the two scenarios, it reaches +?2.0/2.4°C in winter and +?3.5/5.0°C in summer for the minimum and maximum daily temperatures, respectively. During summer, the warming trend is more pronounced in the surrounding countryside than in Paris and suburbs due to the soil dryness. As a result, a substantial decrease of the strong urban heat islands is noted at nighttime, and numerous events with negative urban heat islands appear at daytime. Finally, a 30% decrease of the heating degree days is quantified in winter between present and future climates. Inversely, the summertime cooling degree days significantly increase in future climate whereas they are negligible in present climate. However, in terms of accumulated degree days, the increase of the demand in cooling remains smaller than the decrease of the demand in heating.  相似文献   

Modeling of changes in thermal bioclimate: examples based on urban spaces in Freiburg, Germany   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Dominik Fröhlich  Andreas Matzarakis 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,111(3-4):547-558

The Place of the Old Synagogue is a popular place in the city center of Freiburg, a medium-sized city in southwest Germany. It is going to be redesigned soon. In this paper the impact of urban street design and surface material on human thermal comfort is analyzed using the example of the Place of the Old Synagogue. The models SkyHelios, RayMan, and ENVI-met were applied to quantify and qualify the changes. All three models are freely available. Their combination allows analysis of development in long-term conditions, as well as changes in spatial distribution of thermal comfort, as well as of heat stress in summer. Results show that the models can provide valuable information. About the Place of the Old Synagogue, quantitative results show that the period with heat stress will become longer, while the intensity of heat stress increases. The spatial results show that the most significant changes are due to changes in shading. Nevertheless, an increase in thermal stress up to 10 °C is calculated for areas, where ground coverage changes from grass to pavement.  相似文献   

Impact of climate change on the hydrogeology of two basins in northern France     

Florence Habets  Julien Boé  Michel Déqué  Agnès Ducharne  Simon Gascoin  Ali Hachour  Eric Martin  Christian Pagé  Eric Sauquet  Laurent Terray  Dominique Thiéry  Ludovic Oudin  Pascal Viennot 《Climatic change》2013,121(4):771-785

This study presents an analysis of climate-change impacts on the water resources of two basins located in northern France, by integrating four sources of uncertainty: climate modelling, hydrological modelling, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios. The analysis focused on the evolution of the water budget, the river discharges and piezometric heads. Seven hydrological models were used, from lumped rainfall-discharge to distributed hydrogeological models, and led to quite different estimates of the water-balance components. One of the hydrological models, CLSM, was found to be unable to simulate the increased water stress and was, thus, considered as an outlier even though it gave fair results for the present day compared to observations. Although there were large differences in the results between the models, there was a marked tendency towards a decrease of the water resource in the rivers and aquifers (on average in 2050 about ?14 % and ?2.5 m, respectively), associated with global warming and a reduction in annual precipitation (on average in 2050 +2.1 K and ?3 %, respectively). The uncertainty associated to climate models was shown to clearly dominate, while the three others were about the same order of magnitude and 3–4 times lower. In terms of impact, the results found in this work are rather different from those obtained in a previous study, even though two of the hydrological models and one of the climate models were used in both studies. This emphasizes the need for a survey of the climatic-change impact on the water resource.  相似文献   

Spectral analysis of the background in ground-based, long-slit spectroscopy     

Frédéric Zagury 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2005,26(4):377-394

This paper examines the variations, because of atmospheric extinction, of broad-band visible spectra, obtained from long-slit spectroscopy, in the vicinity of some stars, nebulae, and one faint galaxy.  相似文献   

Comments on the low-wavenumber power of granulation brightness fluctuations     

Claude Aime  Julien Borgnino  François Martin  Gilbert Ricort 《Solar physics》1977,53(1):189-195

A comment is made on the Edmonds' study of the low-wavenumber power of solar granulation. It is concluded that its one-dimensional power spectrum is biased, and that the corresponding two-dimensional power spectrum shows negative parts.  相似文献   

Surface area, porosity and water adsorption properties of fine volcanic ash particles   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Pierre Delmelle  Frédéric Villiéras  Manuel Pelletier 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2005,67(2):160-169

Our understanding on how ash particles in volcanic plumes react with coexisting gases and aerosols is still rudimentary, despite the importance of these reactions in influencing the chemistry and dynamics of a plume. In this study, six samples of fine ash (<100 m) from different volcanoes were measured for their specific surface area, a_s, porosity and water adsorption properties with the aim to provide insights into the capacity of silicate ash particles to react with gases, including water vapour. To do so, we performed high-resolution nitrogen and water vapour adsorption/desorption experiments at 77 K and 303 K, respectively. The nitrogen data indicated a_s values in the range 1.1–2.1 m²/g, except in one case where a a_s of 10 m²/g was measured. This high value is attributed to incorporation of hydrothermal phases, such as clay minerals, in the ash surface composition. The data also revealed that the ash samples are essentially non-porous, or have a porosity dominated by macropores with widths >500 Å. All the specimens had similar pore size distributions, with a small peak centered around 50 Å. These findings suggest that fine ash particles have relatively undifferentiated surface textures, irrespective of the chemical composition and eruption type. Adsorption isotherms for water vapour revealed that the capacity of the ash samples for water adsorption is systematically larger than predicted from the nitrogen adsorption a_s values. Enhanced reactivity of the ash surface towards water may result from (i) hydration of bulk ash constituents; (ii) hydration of surface compounds; and/or (iii) hydroxylation of the surface of the ash. The later mechanism may lead to irreversible retention of water. Based on these experiments, we predict that volcanic ash is covered by a complete monolayer of water under ambient atmospheric conditions. In addition, capillary condensation within ash pores should allow for deposition of condensed water on to ash particles before water reaches saturation in the plume. The total mass of water vapour retained by 1 g of fine ash at 0.95 relative water vapour pressure is calculated to be ~10^–2 g. Some volcanic implications of this study are discussed.Editorial responsibility: J. Gilbert  相似文献   

Hydrographische Bibliographie     

Fr. Model  H. Mädler 《Ocean Dynamics》1967,20(4):188-204

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Strombeobachtungen in der südwestlichen Nordsee     

Fr. Model 《Ocean Dynamics》1958,11(5):217-218

Ohne Zusammenfassung  相似文献