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231.
Marcell Ferenc Joelle Nicolas Tonie van Dam Laurent Polidori Alexis Rigo Philippe Vernant 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2014,58(1):56-75
Surface displacements due to temporal changes in environmental mass redistributions are observable in the coordinate time series of many Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) sites. In this study, we investigated the effect of loading on estimates of tectonic velocity computed from campaign-style GNSS observations. The study region is in the Pyrenees mountain range between France and Spain (ResPyr campaigns). In this area, seismic activity is continuous and moderate and the expected amplitude of the horizontal tectonic velocity is less than 0.5 mm/yr. In order to determine the velocity, 4 sparse GNSS campaigns were carried out from 1995 to 2010. Considering this small rate of deformation, loading phenomena can contribute a non-negligible artifact to the velocity computation that could affect our geodynamical interpretation. In this investigation, we specifically considered the atmospheric, hydrological, and non-tidal ocean loading phenomena. The computed loading deformations for this region show the horizontal displacements are dominated by the non-tidal ocean loading (maximum 4 mm for the North and 3.1 mm for the East components); the main vertical contributions are due to the atmospheric and continental water storage loading (maximum 14.3 for the atmosphere and 8.1 mm for the hydrology, respectively). We have found that the dominant loading effect on the horizontal velocity is the non-tidal ocean loading (mean of 0.11 mm/yr), whereas the vertical component is dominated by the hydrological loading (mean of 0.21 mm/yr). Since the study area is in a mountainous region, we also analyzed the difference between the atmospheric and the topography dependent atmospheric loading models at our GNSS campaign sites. We did not find any significant difference between the two atmospheric loading models in terms of horizontal velocity. Finally, we performed simulations to identify the optimum timing and frequency of future GNSS campaigns in this area that would minimize the loading effects on tectonic velocity estimates. 相似文献
232.
Multivariate Prediction of Total Water Storage Changes Over West Africa from Multi-Satellite Data 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Ehsan Forootan Jürgen Kusche Ina Loth Wolf-Dieter Schuh Annette Eicker Joseph Awange Laurent Longuevergne Bernd Diekkrüger Michael Schmidt C. K. Shum 《Surveys in Geophysics》2014,35(4):913-940
West African countries have been exposed to changes in rainfall patterns over the last decades, including a significant negative trend. This causes adverse effects on water resources of the region, for instance, reduced freshwater availability. Assessing and predicting large-scale total water storage (TWS) variations are necessary for West Africa, due to its environmental, social, and economical impacts. Hydrological models, however, may perform poorly over West Africa due to data scarcity. This study describes a new statistical, data-driven approach for predicting West African TWS changes from (past) gravity data obtained from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE), and (concurrent) rainfall data from the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) and sea surface temperature (SST) data over the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. The proposed method, therefore, capitalizes on the availability of remotely sensed observations for predicting monthly TWS, a quantity which is hard to observe in the field but important for measuring regional energy balance, as well as for agricultural, and water resource management. Major teleconnections within these data sets were identified using independent component analysis and linked via low-degree autoregressive models to build a predictive framework. After a learning phase of 72 months, our approach predicted TWS from rainfall and SST data alone that fitted to the observed GRACE-TWS better than that from a global hydrological model. Our results indicated a fit of 79 % and 67 % for the first-year prediction of the two dominant annual and inter-annual modes of TWS variations. This fit reduces to 62 % and 57 % for the second year of projection. The proposed approach, therefore, represents strong potential to predict the TWS over West Africa up to 2 years. It also has the potential to bridge the present GRACE data gaps of 1 month about each 162 days as well as a—hopefully—limited gap between GRACE and the GRACE follow-on mission over West Africa. The method presented could also be used to generate a near-real-time GRACE forecast over the regions that exhibit strong teleconnections. 相似文献
233.
Guy Delrieu Laurent Bonnifait Pierre-Emmanuel Kirstetter Brice Boudevillain 《水文科学杂志》2014,59(7):1308-1319
AbstractRadar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were assessed using reference values established by means of a geostatistical approach. The reference values were estimated from raingauge data using the block kriging technique, and the reference meshes were selected on the basis of the kriging estimation variance. Agreement between radar QPEs and reference rain amounts was shown to increase slightly with the space–time scales. The statistical distributions of the errors were modelled conditionally with respect to several factors using the GAMLSS approach. The conditional bias of the errors presents a complex structure that depends on the space–time scales and the considered geographical sub-domains, while the standard deviation of the errors has a more homogeneous behaviour. The estimation standard deviation of the reference rainfall and the standard deviation of the errors between radar and reference rainfall were found to have the same magnitude, indicating the limitations of the available network in terms of providing accurate reference values for the spatial scales considered (5–100 km2).
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor R.J. MooreCitation Delrieu, G., Bonnifait, L., Kirstetter, P.-E., and Boudevillain, B., 2013. Dependence of radar quantitative precipitation estimation error on the rain intensity in the Cévennes region, France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1300–1311. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.827337 相似文献
234.
Elsa Mohino Serge Janicot Hervé Douville Laurent Z. X. Li 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(11-12):2319-2334
Observational evidence suggests a link between the summer Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and anomalous convection over West Africa. This link is further studied with the help of the LMDZ atmospheric general circulation model. The approach is based on nudging the model towards the reanalysis in the Asian monsoon region. The simulation successfully captures the convection associated with the summer MJO in the nudging region. Outside this region the model is free to evolve. Over West Africa it simulates convection anomalies that are similar in magnitude, structure, and timing to the observed ones. In accordance with the observations, the simulation shows that 15–20?days after the maximum increase (decrease) of convection in the Indian Ocean there is a significant reduction (increase) in West African convection. The simulation strongly suggests that in addition to the eastward-moving MJO signal, the westward propagation of a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave is needed to explain the overall impact of the MJO on convection over West Africa. These results highlight the use of MJO events to potentially predict regional-scale anomalous convection and rainfall spells over West Africa with a time lag of approximately 15–20?days. 相似文献
235.
We have studied by high-resolution X-ray Computed Tomography the effect of crystal clustering on the Shape-Preferred Orientation (SPO) development in synthetic magmas experimentally deformed at 300 MPa and 475–550°C. A fully connected solid network that could potentially induce the onset of yield strength is not achieved in these suspensions containing 16 vol% of crystals. The alumina grain population exhibits a glomeroporphyritic texture made of isolated grains (59.6%) and clusters of touching grains (40.4%). The SPO of the sub-population of isolated grains exhibits foliation and lineation, which are closely parallel to the plane and direction of shear, respectively. The SPO of clustered grains has little influence overall shape fabric. The angular relationships between the average foliation and cluster elongation provide a good indicator of the shear sense. Finally, we highlight the strain partitioning between nearly non-deformed large clusters acting as rigid glomerocrysts and highly sheared zones in low concentrated suspensions. 相似文献
236.
Following the need for understanding and quantifying the effect of temperature on the response of a candidate host formation for radioactive waste disposal, finite element modelling of an in situ thermal experiment has been carried out. Based on a thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) finite element approach including a consistent thermo-plastic constitutive model, it has been possible to reproduce the THM response of a clay formation submitted to in situ thermal loading. The simulated large-scale experiment, called ATLAS was designed in the underground research facility (HADES-URF) in Mol, Belgium. After an extensive literature analysis on the thermal, hydraulic and mechanical characteristics of Boom Clay, laboratory tests were simulated to calibrate model parameters. The results of the finite element modelling of the ATLAS experiment were compared with in situ measurements and revealed the necessity to account for flow diffusion in all three directions through a 2D axisymmetric analysis. Finally, those results were interpreted in the light of elasto-thermoplasticity, which emphasizes the significant role of thermo-plastic processes in the global THM response of the clay formation. 相似文献
237.
Konstantin Brenner Mayya Groza Laurent Jeannin Roland Masson Jeanne Pellerin 《Computational Geosciences》2017,21(5-6):1075-1094
Fully implicit time-space discretizations applied to the two-phase Darcy flow problem leads to the systems of nonlinear equations, which are traditionally solved by some variant of Newton’s method. The efficiency of the resulting algorithms heavily depends on the choice of the primary unknowns since Newton’s method is not invariant with respect to a nonlinear change of variable. In this regard, the role of capillary pressure/saturation relation is paramount because the choice of primary unknowns is restricted by its shape. We propose an elegant mathematical framework for two-phase flow in heterogeneous porous media resulting in a family of formulations, which apply to general monotone capillary pressure/saturation relations and handle the saturation jumps at rocktype interfaces. The presented approach is applied to the hybrid dimensional model of two-phase water-gas Darcy flow in fractured porous media for which the fractures are modelled as interfaces of co-dimension one. The problem is discretized using an extension of vertex approximate gradient scheme. As for the phase pressure formulation, the discrete model requires only two unknowns by degree of freedom. 相似文献
238.
Charline Giguet-Covex Fabien Arnaud Jérôme Poulenard Dirk Enters Jean-Louis Reyss Laurent Millet Jérome Lazzaroto Olivier Vidal 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2010,43(1):171-190
Sedimentological, geochemical and particle-size analyses were used to reconstruct the evolution of both trophic state and
hypolimnetic anoxia in Lake Bourget (French Alps) during the last century. Radionuclide dating (210Pb, 137Cs and 241Am) confirmed the annual rhythm of laminations in the upper sediment profile. In Lake Bourget, biochemical varves are triplets
composed of a diatom layer (spring lamina), a bio-precipitated calcite-rich layer (spring/summer lamina), and a layer rich
in organic matter and detrital particles (winter lamina). The onset of eutrophication and the first appearance of an anoxic
facies occurred simultaneously and were dated by laminae counting to AD 1943±1 year. Persistent anoxic conditions began in
AD 1960. Eutrophication is characterised by drastic increases in the flux of biogenic silica (mostly diatoms), lacustrine
organic matter, and larger calcite crystals (15–30 μm). The increase of organic matter also represents a marker of the onset
of anoxic conditions in the hypolimnion. Our results show that eutrophication was the main factor controlling anoxia in the
hypolimnion. This eutrophication was caused mostly by the inflow of untreated sewage effluents, and to a lesser extent, by
input of fertilizer-derived phosphorus during floods of the Rhone River and run-off from the lake catchment. The Rhone River,
however, can also be a source of re-oxygenation via underflows that originate during flood events. Oxygenation of the hypolimnion
is also controlled by low winter temperatures, which enable turnover of the lake. Thus, global warming, associated with a
forecasted reduction in precipitation, might reduce the efficiency of hypolimnetic re-oxygenation in Lake Bourget. 相似文献
239.
Qiaoyu Cui Laurent Marquer Marta Arzarello Vincent Lebreton 《Frontiers of Earth Science》2009,3(2):171-174
This paper presents an image analysis method for automated quantification of charcoal total area, focusing on the charcoal
fractions less than 160 μm observed on 14 pollen slides from Grotta Reali samples. Four fire signals were recorded with 4
high values in the microcharcoal concentration curve. On the basis of modern microcharcoal study, mean length/width ratio
of the microcharcoal particles was applied in an archeological context as an indicator of vegetal type (wood, grass or leaves).
Therefore, the 4 fire signals were separated into two types: high concentration with high length/width ratio, and high concentration
with low length/width ratio. Two fire signals might be interpreted as anthropic fire based on hearth or combustion areas,
as inferred from archeological remains. 相似文献
240.
The major French site of Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum (Adams and Reeves, 1850) cultivation is located in the Chausey Archipelago where the associated practices are highly mechanized: every steps of production are made with tractor-driven machinery. The Manila clam concessions are concentrated on Lanice conchilega (Pallas, 1766) bioherms, which are known to increase alpha-diversity and to locally modify sediment dynamics. This study focus on the impacts of Manila clam cultivation on (i) the natural populations of L. conchilega and on (ii) the structure of the associated benthic assemblages during the different steps of the farming production cycle. We found that the L. conchilega populations are significantly affected within the concessions where their total abundances drastically decrease, their spatial patterns are modified and the associated benthic assemblages are significantly altered. Our results are discussed in a context of a sustainable management of the Manila clam cultivation in coastal areas. 相似文献