Bi-level optimization for risk-based regional hurricane evacuation planning     

Pruttipong Apivatanagul  Rachel A. Davidson  Linda K. Nozick 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(2):567-588

Almost all engineering evacuation models define the objective as minimizing the time required to clear the region or total travel time, thus making an implicit assumption that who will or should evacuate is known. Conservatively evacuating everyone who may be affected may be the best strategy for a given storm, but there is a growing recognition that in some places that strategy is no longer viable and in any case, may not be the best alternative by itself. Here, we introduce a new bi-level optimization that reframes the decision more broadly. The upper level develops an evacuation plan that describes, as a hurricane approaches, who should stay and who should leave and when, so as to minimize both risk and travel time. The lower level is a dynamic user equilibrium (DUE) traffic assignment model. The model includes four novel features: (1) it refocuses the decision on the objectives of minimizing both risk and travel time; (2) it allows direct comparison of more alternatives, including for the first time, sheltering-in-place; (3) it uses a hurricane-scenario-based analysis that explicitly represents the critically important uncertainty in hurricane track, intensity, and speed; and (4) it includes a new DUE algorithm that is efficient enough for full-scale hurricane evacuation applications. The model can be used both to provide an evacuation plan and to evaluate a plan’s performance in terms of risk and travel time, assuming the plan is implemented and a specified hurricane scenario then actually occurs. We demonstrate the model with a full-scale case study for Eastern North Carolina.  相似文献   

The Significance of Intestinal Parasite Remains in Pollen Samples from Medieval Pits in the Piazza Garibaldi of Parma,Emilia Romagna,Northern Italy     

Assunta Florenzano  Anna Maria Mercuri  Aurora Pederzoli  Paola Torri  Giovanna Bosi  Linda Olmi  Rossella Rinaldi  Marta Bandini Mazzanti 《Geoarchaeology》2012,27(1):34-47

This paper presents the study of parasite remains recovered in pollen samples collected from archaeological layers. Laboratory treatment enabled us to obtain very high concentrations of both pollen and parasite eggs from the same samples. The case study of the site of Piazza Garibaldi in Parma, a town in the Po plain, is reported. The site was a sacred area in Roman times and a market square in Medieval times (10th–11th century A.D.). Pollen, seeds, and fruits from the latter phase were collected from four Medieval pits and one cesspit. After a palynological treatment including sieving, floating, and light acetolysis, abundant quantities of parasite eggs were extracted. Human and animal parasite eggs belonging to Trichuris, Ascaris, Taenia/Echinococcus, Capillaria, Dicrocoelium, and Diphyllobothrium were found. The analyses of animal and plant remains identified in the same samples suggested that the pit infillings consisted of waste, human and animal excrements, deteriorated plant food, and refuse of grapes. Therefore, parasite remains help the interpretation of archaeobotanical data in identifying human behaviors and site functions.  相似文献   

Climate uncertainties and their discontents: increasing the impact of assessments on public understanding of climate risks and choices     

Brenda Ekwurzel  Peter C. Frumhoff  James J. McCarthy 《Climatic change》2011,108(4):791-802

US public awareness of the reality and risks of human-caused climate change remains limited, despite strong evidence presented in the IPCC and other major climate assessments. One contributing factor may be that the immense collective effort to produce periodic climate assessments is typically not well matched with public communication and outreach efforts for these reports, leaving a vacuum to be filled by less authoritative sources. Print and online media coverage provides one metric of the US public reach of selected climate assessments between 2000 and 2010. The number of Lexis-Nexis articles for the search terms “climate change” or “global warming” within 14 days of each report’s release varied significantly over time with a peak occurring in 2007. When compared to background “chatter” relating to climate change, each assessment had widely diverse penetration in the US media (~4% for US National Climate Assessment in 2000; ~17% for Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment in 2004; ~19% and ~10% for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report Working Group I and Working Group II respectively in 2007; ~4% for the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) assessment report in 2009; and ~5% for US National Research Council’s America’s Climate Choices reports in 2010). We propose ways to improve the public reach of climate assessments, focusing in particular on approaches to more effectively characterize and communicate the role of uncertainty in human actions as distinct from other sources of uncertainty across the range of possible climate futures.  相似文献   

Stratigraphy of the Triassic?Jurassic Boundary Successions of the Southern Margin of the Junggar Basin, Northwestern China   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

SHA Jingeng  Vivi VAJDA  PAN Yanhong  Linda LARSSON  YAO Xiaogang  ZHANG Xiaolin  WANG Yaqiong  CHENG Xiansheng  JIANG Baoyu  DENG Shenghui  CHEN Siwei  PENG Bo 《《地质学报》英文版》2011,85(2):421-436

The Triassic?Jurassic (Tr?J) boundary marks a major extinction event, which (~200 Ma) resulted in global extinctions of fauna and flora both in the marine and terrestrial realms. There prevail great challenges in determining the exact location of the terrestrial Tr?J boundary, because of endemism of taxa and the scarcity of fossils in terrestrial settings leading to difficulties in linking marine and terrestrial sedimentary successions. Investigation based on palynology and bivalves has been carried out over a 1113 m thick section, which is subdivided into 132 beds, along the Haojiagou valley on the southern margin of the Junggar Basin of the northern Xinjiang, northwestern China. The terrestrial Lower Jurassic is conformably resting on the Upper Triassic strata. The Upper Triassic covers the Huangshanjie Formation overlaid by the Haojiagou Formation, while the Lower Jurassic comprises the Badaowan Formation followed by the Sangonghe Formation. Fifty six pollen and spore taxa and one algal taxon were identified from the sediments. Based on the key-species and abundance of spores and pollen, three zones were erected: the Late Triassic (Rhaetian) Aratrisporites?Alisporites Assemblage, the Early Jurassic (Hettangian) Perinopollenites?Pinuspollenites Assemblage, and the Sinemurian Perinopollenites?Cycadopites Assemblage. The Tr?J boundary is placed between bed 44 and 45 coincident with the boundary between the Haojiagou and Badaowan formations. Beds with Ferganoconcha (?), Unio?Ferganoconcha and Waagenoperna?Yananoconcha bivalve assemblages are recognized. The Ferganoconcha (?) bed is limited to the upper Haojiagou Formation, Unio?Ferganoconcha and Waagenoperna?Yananoconcha assemblages are present in the middle and upper members of the Badaowan Formation. The sedimentary succession is interpreted as terrestrial with two mainly lake deposit intervals within Haojiagou and Badaowan formations, yielding fresh water algae and bivalves. However, the presence of brackish water algae Tasmanites and the marine?littoral facies bivalve Waagenoperna from the Badaowan Formation indicate that the Junggar Basin was influenced by sea water caused by transgressions from the northern Tethys, during the Sinemurian.  相似文献   

A study of arsenic,iron and other dissolved ion variations in the groundwater of Bishnupur District,Manipur, India   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Jayalakshmi Devi Oinam  AL. Ramanathan  Anurag Linda  Gurmeet Singh 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,62(6):1183-1195

The presence of arsenic (As) in groundwater and its effect on human health has become an issue of serious concern in recent years. The present study assessed the groundwater quality of the Bishnupur District, Manipur, with respect to drinking water standards. Higher concentrations of pH, iron and phosphate were observed at several locations. Phosphate and iron levels were highest in the pre-monsoon, followed by monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. The arsenic concentrations were highest during post-monsoon (1–200 μg L⁻¹) as compared to pre-monsoon (1–108 μg L⁻¹) and monsoon (2–99 μg L⁻¹). Kwakta and Ngakhalawai show higher levels of arsenic concentration as compared to the prescribed World Health Organization (WHO) and Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) norms. Arsenic showed a strong positive correlation with phosphate and negative correlation with sulphate, suggesting a partial influence of anthropogenic sources. The study suggests that the Bishnupur area has an arsenic contamination problem, which is expected to increase in the near future.  相似文献   

Swashed away? Storm impacts on sandy beach macrofaunal communities     

Linda Harris  Ronel Nel  David Schoeman 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011,94(3):210-221

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The origin of eucrites,diogenites, and olivine diogenites: Magma ocean crystallization and shallow magma chamber processes on Vesta     

Ben E. Mandler  Linda T. Elkins‐Tanton 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2013,48(11):2333-2349

The asteroid 4 Vesta is one of the very few heavenly bodies to have been linked to samples on Earth: the howardite‐eucrite‐diogenite (HED) meteorite suite. This large and diverse suite of meteorites provides a detailed picture of Vesta's igneous and postigneous history. We have used the range of igneous rock types and compositions in the HED suite to test a series of chemical models for solidification processes following peak melting (magma ocean) conditions on Vesta. Fractional crystallization cannot have been a dominant early process in the magma ocean because it leads to excessive Fe‐enrichment in the melt. Models that are dominated by equilibrium crystallization cannot produce orthopyroxene cumulates (diogenites). Our best models invoke 60–70% equilibrium crystallization of a magma ocean followed by continuous extraction of the residual melt into shallow magma chambers. Fractional crystallization in these magma chambers combined with continuous or periodic addition of more melt from the slowly compacting crystal mush (magmatic recharge) can produce all of the igneous HED lithologies (noncumulate and cumulate eucrites, diogenites, dunites, harzburgites, and olivine diogenites). Magmatic recharge can also explain the narrow range in eucrite compositions and the variability of incompatible trace element concentrations in diogenites. We predict an internal structure for Vesta that permits excavation of the HEDs during the formation of the Rheasilvia basin, while remaining consistent with observations from the Dawn mission and most impact models.  相似文献   

Assessing Nitrogen Dynamics Throughout the Estuarine Landscape     

Ashley R. Smyth  Suzanne P. Thompson  Kaylyn N. Siporin  Wayne S. Gardner  Mark J. McCarthy  Michael F. Piehler 《Estuaries and Coasts》2013,36(1):44-55

Assessing nitrogen dynamics in the estuarine landscape is challenging given the unique effects of individual habitats on nitrogen dynamics. We measured net N₂ fluxes, sediment oxygen demand, and fluxes of ammonium and nitrate seasonally from five major estuarine habitats: salt marshes, seagrass beds (SAV), oyster reefs, and intertidal and subtidal flats. Net N₂ fluxes ranged from 332?±?116 μmol?N-N₂?m^?2?h^?1 from oyster reef sediments in the summer to ?67?±?4 μmol?N-N₂?m^?2?h^?1 from SAV in the winter. Oyster reef sediments had the highest rate of N₂ production of all habitats. Dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) was measured during the summer and winter. DNRA was low during the winter and ranged from 4.5?±?3.0 in subtidal flats to 104?±?34 μmol?¹⁵NH ₄ ⁺ ?m^?2?h^?1 in oyster reefs during the summer. Annual denitrification, accounting for seasonal differences in inundation and light, ranged from 161.1?±?19.2 mmol?N-N₂?m^?2?year^?1 for marsh sediments to 509.9?±?122.7 mmol?N-N₂?m^?2?year^?1 for SAV sediments. Given the current habitat distribution in our study system, an estimated 28.3?×?10⁶?mol of N are removed per year or 76 % of estimated watershed nitrogen load. These results indicate that changes in the area and distribution of habitats in the estuarine landscape will impact ecosystem function and services.  相似文献   

The use of tracers to assess drill-mud penetration depth into sandstone cores during deep drilling: method development and application     

Linda Pellizzari  Dominik Neumann  Mashal Alawi  Dieter Voigt  Ben Norden  Hilke Würdemann 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(8):3727-3738

For the utilization of deep saline aquifers in the frame of geotechnical use, such as geological sequestration of CO₂, H₂ or energy storage, a baseline characterization of pristine reservoir rock cores is required to monitor changes in the indigenous microbial communities and pore fluids, and to study alterations in rock characteristics resulting from interaction with geological storage technologies. However, drilling procedures and technical fluids, particularly drill mud, are sources of core contamination. To measure the penetration of drill mud into the cores, three tracers (fluorescein, microspheres, and 4′,6-diamidino-2-phenylindole stained bacteria) were tested under laboratory conditions. The flow of drill mud into core samples was induced by applying uniaxial pressure differentials to the core, and the penetration depth was microscopically determined for each tracer. Fluorescein was extracted from the rock samples and quantified fluorometrically. The results indicate that all tested tracers are suitable for tracking drill-mud penetration. The actual penetration depth seems to be related to differences in mineral composition and texture as well as microfractures. Among all tested tracers, fluorescein labelling is the simplest, cheapest and most accurate method for analyzing the contamination of rock cores by technical fluids. The application of this tracer was successfully applied during two deep drilling campaigns at the CO₂ storage pilot site in Ketzin, Germany. The results highlight that the use of tracers is indispensable to ensure the quality of core samples for microbiological and biogeochemical analysis.  相似文献   

Decolonizing Development: Colonial Power and the Maya – By Joel Wainwright     

Linda A  Newson 《The Geographical journal》2009,175(3):240-241

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