Preparing for climate change in Washington State     

Lara C. Whitely Binder  Jennifer Krencicki Barcelos  Derek B. Booth  Meriel Darzen  Marketa McGuire Elsner  Richard Fenske  Thomas F. Graham  Alan F. Hamlet  John Hodges-Howell  J. Elizabeth Jackson  Catherine Karr  Patrick W. Keys  Jeremy S. Littell  Nathan Mantua  Jennifer Marlow  Don McKenzie  Michael Robinson-Dorn  Eric A. Rosenberg  Claudio O. Stöckle  Julie A. Vano 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):351-376

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.  相似文献   

Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution     

J. Elizabeth Jackson  Michael G. Yost  Catherine Karr  Cole Fitzpatrick  Brian K. Lamb  Serena H. Chung  Jack Chen  Jeremy Avise  Roger A. Rosenblatt  Richard A. Fenske 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):159-186

Illness and mortality related to heat and worsening air quality are core public health concerns associated with climate change projections. We examined the historical relationship between age- and cause-specific mortality rates from 1980 through 2006 and heat events at the 99th percentile of humidex values in the historic period from January 1, 1970 to December 31, 2006 in the greater Seattle area (King, Pierce and Snohomish counties), Spokane County, the Tri-Cities (Benton and Franklin counties) and Yakima County; the relative risks of mortality during heat events were applied to population and climate projections for Washington State to calculate number of deaths above the baseline (1980–2006) expected during projected heat events in 2025, 2045 and 2085. Three different warming scenarios were used in the analysis. Relative risks for the greater Seattle area showed a significant dose-response relationship between heat event duration and daily mortality rates for non-traumatic deaths for persons ages 45 and above, typically peaking at four days of exposure to humidex values above the 99th percentile. The largest number of projected excess deaths in all years and scenarios for the Seattle region was found for age 65 and above. Under the middle warming scenario, this age group is expected to have 96, 148 and 266 excess deaths from all non-traumatic causes in 2025, 2045 and 2085, respectively. We also examined projected excess deaths due to ground-level ozone concentrations at mid century (2045–2054) in King and Spokane counties. Current (1997–2006) ozone measurements and mid-twenty-first century ozone projections were coupled with dose-response data from the scientific literature to produce estimates overall and cardiopulmonary mortality. Daily maximum 8-h ozone concentrations are forecasted to be 16–28% higher in the mid twenty-first century compared to the recent decade of 1997–2006. By mid-century in King County the non-traumatic mortality rate related to ozone was projected to increase from baseline (0.026 per 100,000; 95% confidence interval 0.013–0.038) to 0.033 (95% CI 0.017–0.049). For the same health outcome in Spokane County, the baseline period rate of 0.058 (95% CI 0.030–0.085) was estimated increase to 0.068 (95% CI 0.035–0.100) by mid-century. The cardiopulmonary death rate per 100,000 due to ozone was estimated to increase from 0.011 (95% CI 0.005–0.017) to 0.015 (0.007–0.022) in King County, and from 0.027 (95% CI 0.013–0.042) to 0.032 (95% CI 0.015–0.049) in Spokane County. Public health interventions aimed at protecting Washington’s population from excessive heat and increased ozone concentrations will become increasingly important for preventing deaths, especially among older adults. Furthermore, heat and air quality related illnesses that do not result in death, but are serious nevertheless, may be reduced by the same measures.  相似文献   

The Effect of Source Distribution on Bulk Scalar Transfer between a Rough Land Surface and the Atmosphere     

Vanessa Haverd  Margi Böhm  Michael R. Raupach 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2010,135(3):351-368

We investigate the effect of source distribution on the bulk transfer of passive scalars between rough, vegetated land surfaces and the atmosphere, using data from a wind-tunnel experiment in which passive heat was emitted from both the underlying surface and canopy elements of a three-dimensional regular bluff-body array. The experimental results are compared with a simple one-dimensional, two-source model for scalar transfer. We find that: (1) the observed scalar transfer resistance across the boundary layer at the underlying surface is simply related to flat-plate theory by a constant of 0.62, despite the complexity of the turbulent flow within the wind-tunnel canopy; (2) one-dimensional gradient-transfer theory, even with extensions to account for the non-local nature of turbulent transfer within the canopy, does not describe the observed details of scalar concentration gradients in the highly three-dimensional canopy flow, but does provide a reasonable framework for bulk scalar transfer between the composite ground-canopy surface and the flow above the canopy; (3) the kB ⁻¹ parameter (which accounts for bulk excess resistance to scalar transfer over momentum transfer) is highly sensitive to scalar source partition between ground and canopy.  相似文献   

The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme US precipitation events in a global atmosphere model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michael F. Wehner  Richard L. Smith  G. Bala  Phillip Duffy 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(2-3):241-247

We investigate the ability of a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to reproduce observed 20 year return values of the annual maximum daily precipitation totals over the continental United States as a function of horizontal resolution. We find that at the high resolutions enabled by contemporary supercomputers, the AGCM can produce values of comparable magnitude to high quality observations. However, at the resolutions typical of the coupled general circulation models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the precipitation return values are severely underestimated.  相似文献   

The development of extremely dry surface air due to vertical exchanges under the exit region of a jet streak     

Michael L. Kaplan  C. Huang  Y.-L. Lin  J. J. Charney 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2008,102(1-2):63-85

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Dynamical Tropopause Variability and Potential Vorticity Streamers in the Northern Hemisphere —— A Climatological Analysis     

Olivia MARTIUS  Cornelia SCHWIERZ  Michael SPRENGER 《大气科学进展》2008,25(3):367-380

This study presents a 44-year climatology of potential vorticity （PV） streamers in the Northern Hemisphere based upon analyses of the ERA-40 reanalysis data set. A comparison to an existing 15-year climatology yields very good agreement in the locations of PV streamer frequency maxima, but some differences are found in the amplitude of frequencies. The climatology is assessed with the focus on links between PV streamer frequencies and the synoptic- and planetary-scale variability of the dynamical tropopause.
A comprehensive overview is provided on where （zonally） and when （seasonally） short-term variability throughout the extra-tropical and sub-tropical tropopause is enhanced or reduced. Several key processes that influence this variability are discussed. Baroclinic processes, for example, determine the variability in the storm-track areas in winter, whereas the Asian summer monsoon significantly influences the variability over Asia.
The paper also describes links between the frequency of PV streamers in the extra-tropical and subtropical tropopause and three major northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns. The observed changes in the PV streamer frequencies are closely related to concomitant variations of PV and its gradient within the tropopause region. During opposite phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation the location of the streamer frequency maxima shifts significantly in the Atlantic and European region in both the extra-tropics and subtropics. The influence of ENSO on the streamer frequencies is most pronounced in the subtropical Pacific.  相似文献   

Holocene climate evolution of the Ugii Nuur basin,Mongolia     

Wolfgang SCHWANGHART  Brigitta SCH  "UTT  Michael WALTHER 《大气科学进展》2008,25(6):986-998

In order to evaluate the Holocene palaeoenvironmental evolution of the Ugii Nuur basin, central Mongolia, investigations on chemical and mineralogical properties of lacustrine sediments were carried out on a 630 cm sediment core from lake Ugii Nuur. The interpretation of the record is based on a principal component analysis （PCA） of the elemental composition of the samples. The results show that lacustrine deposition started at 10.6 kyr BP. Low lake level conditions were identified during the Early Holocene （10.6-7.9 kyr BP）. The Mid Holocene （7.9-4.2 kyr BP） was characterized by generally higher lake levels and thus higher moisture supply, but it experienced strong climatic fluctuations. Arid conditions prevailed from 4.2-2.8 kyr BP and were followed by a stable, more humid phase until today.  相似文献   

The relative importance of tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways     

Amy Solomon  Sang-Ik Shin  Michael A. Alexander  Julian P. McCreary 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(2-3):315-331

To what extent is tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways relative to locally generated variability and variability forced through the atmosphere? To address this question, in this study we use an anomaly-coupled model, consisting of a global, atmospheric general circulation model and a 4½-layer, reduced-gravity, Pacific-Ocean model. Three solutions are obtained; with coupling over the entire basin (CNT), with coupling confined to the tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North and South Pacific specified by climatology (TP), and with coupling confined to the Tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North Pacific specified by output from CNT (NPF). It is found that there are two distinct signals forced in the North Pacific that can impact the tropics through ocean pathways. These two signals are forced by wind stress and surface heat flux anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific. The first signal is relatively fast, impacts tropical variability less than a year after forcing, is triggered from November to March, and propagates as a first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave. The second signal is only triggered during springtime when buoyancy forcing can effectively generate higher-order baroclinic modes through subduction anomalies into the permanent thermocline, and it reaches the equator 4–5 years after forcing. The slow signal is found to initiate tropical variability more efficiently than the fast signal with one standard deviation in subtropical zonal wind stress forcing tropical SST anomalies centered on the equator at 135°W of approximately 0.5°C. Allowing extratropically forced tropical variability is found to shift primarily 2-year ENSO variability in a tropics-alone simulation to a more realistic range of 2–6 years.  相似文献   

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Till Kuhlbrodt  Stefan Rahmstorf  Kirsten Zickfeld  Frode Bendiksen Vikebø  Svein Sundby  Matthias Hofmann  Peter Michael Link  Alberte Bondeau  Wolfgang Cramer  Carlo Jaeger 《Climatic change》2009,96(4):489-537

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO₂ concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO₂ emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.  相似文献   

Climatic Change Letters inaugural editorial     

Stephen H. Schneider  Michael Oppenheimer 《Climatic change》2009,97(1-2):1-2

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