Climate change impacts on global agriculture   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alvaro Calzadilla  Katrin Rehdanz  Richard Betts  Pete Falloon  Andy Wiltshire  Richard S. J. Tol 《Climatic change》2013,120(1-2):357-374

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO₂ fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land will change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity provide a false appreciation of the nature of changes likely to occur. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. No matter which SRES scenario is preferred, we find that the expected losses in welfare are significant. These losses are slightly larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that national welfare is influenced both by regional climate change and climate-induced changes in competitiveness.  相似文献   

Pyrite textures and compositions from the Zhuangzi Au deposit,southeastern North China Craton: implication for ore-forming processes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xing-Hui?Li  Hong-Rui?FanEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Kui-Feng?Yang  Pete?Hollings  Xuan?Liu  Fang-Fang?Hu  Ya-Chun?Cai 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2018,173(9):73

The Zhuangzi Au deposit in the world-class Jiaodong gold province hosts visible natural gold, and pyrite as the main ore mineral, making it an excellent subject for deciphering the complex hydrothermal processes and mechanisms of gold precipitation. Three types of zoned pyrite crystals were distinguished based on textural and geochemical results from EPMA, SIMS sulfur isotopic analyses and NanoSIMS mapping. Py0 has irregular shapes and abundant silicate inclusions and was contemporaneous with the earliest pyrite–sericite–quartz alteration. It has low concentrations of As (0–0.3 wt.%), Au and Cu. Py1 precipitated with stage I mineralization shows oscillatory zoning with the bright bands having high As (0.4–3.9 wt.%), Au and Cu contents, whereas the dark bands have low contents of As (0–0.4 wt.%), Au and Cu. The oscillatory zoning represents pressure fluctuations and repeated local fluid phase separation around the pyrite crystal. The concentration of invisible gold in Py1 is directly proportional to the arsenic concentration. Py1 is partially replaced by Py2 which occurs with arsenopyrite, chalcopyrite and native gold in stage II. The replacement was likely the result of pseudomorphic dissolution–reprecipitation triggered by a new pulse of Au-rich hydrothermal fluids. The δ³⁴S values for the three types of pyrite are broadly similar ranging from +?7.1 to +?8.8‰, suggesting a common sulfur source. Fluid inclusion microthermometry suggests that extensive phase separation was responsible for the gold deposition during stage II mineralization. Uranium–Pb dating of monazite constrains the age of mineralization to ca. 119 Ma coincident with a short compressional event around 120 Ma linked to an abrupt change in the drift direction of the subducting Pacific plate.  相似文献   

Timescales of convection in magma chambers below the Mid-Atlantic ridge from melt inclusions investigations   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Aurélia?ColinEmail author  Fran?ois?Faure  Pete?Burnard 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2012,164(4):677-691

Closed hopper and complex swallowtail morphologies of olivine microcrysts have been described in the past in both mid-oceanic ridge basalts and subaerial tholeitic volcanoes and indicate fluctuations in magma undercooling. We describe similar morphologies in a Mid-Atlantic ridge pillow basalt (sample RD87DR10), and in addition we estimate the duration of temperature fluctuations required to produce these textures as follows: (1) Pairs of melt inclusions are arranged symmetrically around the centre of hopper crystals and each pair represents a heating–cooling cycle. Using the literature olivine growth rates relevant to the observed morphologies, and measuring the distance between two successive inclusions, we estimate the minimum time elapsed during one convection cycle. (2) The major element composition of melt inclusions (analysed by electron microprobe) was found to be in the range of the boundary layer measured in the glass surrounding the olivines, irrespective of their size. Several major elements demonstrate that this boundary layer results from rapid quenching on the seafloor, and not from crystal growth at depth, implying the inclusions had the same composition as the surrounding magma when they were sealed. Using diffusivity of slow diffusing elements such as Al₂O₃, we estimate the minimum time required for inclusion formation. These two independent approaches give concordant results: each cooling–heating cycle lasted between a few minutes and 1 h minimum. Thus, these crystals probably recorded thermal convection in small magmatic bodies (a dyke or shallow magma chamber) during the last hour or hours before eruption.  相似文献   

Nitrogen in peridotite xenoliths: Lithophile behavior and magmatic isotope fractionation     

Reika Yokochi  Bernard Marty  Pete Burnard 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2009,73(16):4843-7521

In order to document the origin and speciation of nitrogen in mantle-derived rocks and minerals, the N and Ar contents and isotopic compositions were investigated for hydrous and anhydrous peridotite xenoliths from Ataq, Yemen, from Eifel, Germany, and from Massif Central, France. Nitrogen and Ar were extracted by stepwise combustion with a fine temperature resolution, followed by fusion in a platinum crucible. A large isotopic disequilibrium of up to 25.4‰ is observed within single peridotite xenoliths, with δ¹⁵N values as low as −17.3‰ in phlogopite whereas clinopyroxene and olivine show positive δ¹⁵N values. Identical Sr isotopic ratios of phlogopite, clinopyroxene and whole rock in this wehrlite sample are consistent with crystallization from a common reservoir, suggesting that the light N signature of phlogopite might be the result of isotopic fractionation during N uptake from the host magma. The nitrogen concentration is systematically high in phlogopite, (7.6-25.7 ppm), whereas that of bulk peridotite xenoliths is between 0.1 and 0.8 ppm. The high N content of phlogopite is at least partly due to host magma-mineral interaction, and may also suggest the occurrence of N as that substituted for K⁺ during mineral growth in mafic magmas. Such speciation is consistent with the fact that N and Rb contents correlate well for a set of samples from mantle regions that were affected by subduction-related metasomatism and magmatism. The N/Rb ratios of these samples are comparable with values estimated for subduction zone magmas, but are one order of magnitude lower than the N/Rb ratios characterizing subducting slabs. This difference suggests preferential release of N relative to alkalis in the forearc region. N/⁴⁰Ar^∗ ratios of minerals from analyzed mantle xenoliths are much higher than those of vesicles in MORBs and OIBs, requiring either the occurrence of nitrogen speciation in the mantle more compatible than Ar, significant loss of fluid phase during entrainment, or long residence time of volatile elements in the mantle source(s) of fluids to increase drastically the ⁴⁰Ar^∗ budget of the latter.  相似文献   

A coupled hydrology–biogeochemistry model to simulate dissolved organic carbon exports from a permafrost‐influenced catchment          下载免费PDF全文

Jason S. Lessels  Doerthe Tetzlaff  Sean K Carey  Pete Smith  Chris Soulsby 《水文研究》2015,29(26):5383-5396

We outline the development of a simple, coupled hydrology–biogeochemistry model for simulating stream discharge and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics in data sparse, permafrost‐influenced catchments with large stores of soil organic carbon. The model incorporates the influence of active layer dynamics and slope aspect on hydrological flowpaths and resulting DOC mobilization. Calibration and evaluation of the model was undertaken using observations from Granger Basin within the Wolf Creek research basin, Yukon, northern Canada. Results show that the model was able to capture the dominant hydrological response and DOC dynamics of the catchment reasonably well. Simulated DOC was highly correlated with observed DOC (r² = 0.65) for the study period. During the snowmelt period, the model adequately captured the observed dynamics, with simulations generally reflecting the timing and magnitude of the observed DOC and stream discharge. The model was less successful over the later summer period although this partly reflected a lack of DOC observations for calibration. The developed model offers a valuable framework for investigating the interactions between hydrological and DOC processes in these highly dynamic systems, where data acquisition is often very difficult. © 2015 The Authors Hydrological Processes Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Place Perception and Social Interaction on an Exurban Landscape in Central Colorado*   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Soren C. Larsen  Curt Sorenson  Dave McDermott  Joshua Long  Chris Post 《The Professional geographer》2007,59(4):421-433

An assumption commonly made in research on exurbanization is that the subdivision of land ownership necessarily creates a socially divisive landscape devoid of shared place perceptions and concerns. This article presents the results of an ethnography project undertaken in a former Colorado ranching valley that is currently exurbanizing. The study revealed not only the emergence of social networks and groups among new residents, but also the presence of distinct themes in place perception and assessment within these assemblages. In particular, the results indicated that concerns about natural hazards and environmental limitations have motivated new residents to interact with one another.  相似文献   

The protection of Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems from inter- and intra-continental transfer of non-indigenous species by human activities: A review of current systems and practices     

Kevin A. Hughes  Pete Convey 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(1):96-112

Invasions by non-indigenous species are amongst the greatest threats to global biodiversity, causing substantial disruption to, and sometimes local extinction of, individual species and community assemblages which, in turn, can affect ecosystem structure and function. The terrestrial environment of Antarctica consists of many isolated ‘islands’ of ice-free ground. Prolonged isolation makes Antarctic biodiversity vulnerable to human-mediated impacts, in particular (1) the introduction of non-indigenous species from outside Antarctica, and (2) the redistribution of indigenous Antarctic species between biologically distinct areas within the continent. The Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty, the primary instrument through which environmental management is addressed within the Antarctic Treaty System, says little about unintentional introduction of non-indigenous species to Antarctica, and nothing specifically about human-mediated transfer of native species from one area to another. We review the effectiveness of the Antarctic protected area system, the primary means through which area-specific environmental protection is achieved under the Antarctic Treaty System. This reveals that the measures described in most Antarctic Specially Protected Area (ASPA) and Antarctic Specially Managed Area (ASMA) Management Plans, by themselves, may not be sufficient to (1) minimise the possibility of introduction of plants, animals and microbes not native to the protected area or (2) adequately protect the many unusual assemblages of species, type localities or only known habitats of certain species found in Antarctica. We discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a more effective system, including the implementation of appropriate biosecurity measures across different spatial scales and applied to different biological groups.  相似文献   

Low solubility of He and Ar in carbonatitic liquids: Implications for decoupling noble gas and lithophile isotope systems     

Pete Burnard  Michael J. Toplis 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2010,74(5):1672-236

In order to asses the importance of carbonatitic liquids in transporting noble gases in the mantle, the solubilities of He and Ar in carbonatitic liquids were estimated from analyses of calcium-potassium carbonate glasses that had been synthesized at 1 bar and temperatures between 850 and 950 °C under He or Ar enriched atmospheres. Despite poor reproducibility related to difficulties synthesizing carbonatite glass, we have been able to estimate He and Ar solubilities in carbonatite liquids to be 1 × 10⁻⁸ and 2 × 10⁻⁹ mol g⁻¹ at 1 bar respectively (with ?50% uncertainty). Despite the significant uncertainties on these estimates, it is clear that the noble gases are not massively soluble in carbonatite liquids (within error, these solubilities are identical to their equivalent solubilities in tholeiitic melts). Assuming the results of these low pressure experiments can be applied to mantle conditions, it seems unlikely that carbonatite metasomatism per se transports noble gases within the mantle. It is nevertheless possible that partitioning of lithophile trace elements (including the important radioelements, U, K and Th) and noble gases between a carbonatitic melt and a silicate melt could effectively decouple lithophile and noble gas isotope systematics because the carbonatitic melt expressedly does not transport noble gases, yet is known to efficiently transport incompatible trace elements.  相似文献   

Inter-comparison of cosmogenic in-situ He, Ne and Cl at low latitude along an altitude transect on the SE slope of Kilimanjaro volcano (3°S, Tanzania)     

Irene Schimmelpfennig  Alice Williams  Raphaël Pik  Pete Burnard  Samuel Niedermann  Robert Finkel  Björn Schneider  Lucilla Benedetti 《Quaternary Geochronology》2011,6(5):425-436

Because the intensity and energy spectrum of the cosmic ray flux are affected by atmospheric depth and geomagnetic-field strength, cosmogenic nuclide production rates increase considerably with altitude and to a lesser degree with latitude. The scaling methods used to account for spatial variability in production rates assume that all cosmogenic nuclides have the same altitude dependence. In this study we evaluate whether the production rates of cosmogenic ³⁶Cl, ³He and ²¹Ne change differently with altitude, which is plausible due to the different threshold energies of their production reactions. If so, nuclide-specific scaling factors would be required.Concentrations of the three cosmogenic nuclides were determined in mafic phenocrysts over an altitude transect between 1000 and 4300 m at Kilimanjaro volcano (3°S). Altitude dependence of relative production rates was assessed in two ways: by determination of concentration ratios and by calculation of apparent exposure age ratios for all nuclide pairs. The latter accounts for characteristics of ³⁶Cl that the stable nuclides ³He and ²¹Ne do not possess (radioactive decay, high sensitivity to mineral composition and significant contributions from production reactions other than spallation). All ratios overlap within error over the entire transect, and altitudinal variation in relative production rates is not therefore evident. This suggests that nuclide-specific scaling factors are not required for the studied nuclides at this low-latitude location. However, because previous studies have documented anomalous altitude-dependent variations in ³He production at mid-latitude sites, the effect of latitude on cross-calibrations should be further evaluated.We determined cosmogenic ²¹Ne/³He concentration ratios of 0.1864 ± 0.0085 in pyroxenes and 0.377 ± 0.018 in olivines, agreeing with those reported in previous studies.Despite the absence of independently determined ages for the studied lava surfaces, the consistency in the dataset should enable progress to be made in the determination of the production rates of all three nuclides as soon as the production rate of one of the nuclides has been accurately defined.To our knowledge this is the first time that ³⁶Cl has been measured in pyroxene. The Cl extraction method was validated by measuring ³⁶Cl in co-existing plagioclase phenocrysts in one of the samples.  相似文献   

Road density as a proxy for population density in regional-scale risk modeling     

Pete Quinn 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):1227-1248

This paper examines the use of road network data as a proxy for interpreting population density, which is of use in regional-scale qualitative risk assessment for natural hazards. Comparison of available road network and population data at various scales in Ontario and Quebec yields a best-fit relationship of D _P  = 28 D _R ² . Analysis of available high-resolution topographic data for the Caribbean island nation of Saint Lucia suggests similar power law trends, with expected population density in Saint Lucia roughly half that of Canada for the same road density. Together, these findings suggest that D _P  ~ 10–30 D _R ² may represent a useful range broadly applicable for a wide variety of geographic, climactic and socioeconomic settings. The Canadian relationship has been used to generate a population density model for the lowlands of eastern Ontario and southern Quebec, and this model has been compared with the spatial distribution of seismic hazard to develop a qualitative seismic risk map. The seismic risk map, presented primarily for illustrative purposes, shows elevated seismic risk in urban centers in the study area, and along a predominantly rural area east of Quebec City on both shores of the Saint Lawrence River.  相似文献