Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk     

Joern Birkmann  Susan L. Cutter  Dale S. Rothman  Torsten Welle  Matthias Garschagen  Bas van Ruijven  Brian O’Neill  Benjamin L. Preston  Stefan Kienberger  Omar D. Cardona  Tiodora Siagian  Deny Hidayati  Neysa Setiadi  Claudia R. Binder  Barry Hughes  Roger Pulwarty 《Climatic change》2015,133(1):53-68

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El Niño-Southern Oscillation impacts on winter winds over Southern California     

Neil Berg  Alex Hall  Scott B. Capps  Mimi Hughes 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):109-121

Changes in wintertime 10 m winds due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation are examined using a 6 km resolution climate simulation of Southern California covering the period from 1959 through 2001. Wind speed statistics based on regional averages reveal a general signal of increased mean wind speeds and wind speed variability during El Niño across the region. An opposite and nearly as strong signal of decreased wind speed variability during La Niña is also found. These signals are generally more significant than the better-known signals in precipitation. In spite of these regional-scale generalizations, there are significant sub-regional mesoscale structures in the wind speed impacts. In some cases, impacts on mean winds and wind variability at the sub-regional scale are opposite to those of the region as a whole. All of these signals can be interpreted in terms of shifts in occurrences of the region’s main wind regimes due to the El Niño phenomenon. The results of this study can be used to understand how interannual wind speed variations in regions of Southern California are influenced by the El Niño phenomenon.  相似文献   

Turbulence Structure Within and Above a Canopy of Bluff Elements   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Margi Böhm  John J. Finnigan  Michael R. Raupach  Dale Hughes 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,146(3):393-419

Measurements of turbulence structure in a wind-tunnel model canopy of bluff elements show many of the features associated with vegetation canopies and roughness sublayers but also display features more characteristic of the inertial sublayer (ISL). Points of similarity include the existence of an inflexion point in the space-time averaged streamwise velocity at the canopy top, the variation with height of turbulent second moments and the departure of the turbulent kinetic energy budget from local equilibrium in and just above the canopy. Quadrant analysis shows characteristic dominance of sweep over ejection events within the canopy although sweeps are more frequent than usually seen in vegetation canopies. Points of difference are a u′, w′ correlation coefficient that is closer to the ISL value than to most canopy data, and a turbulent Prandtl number midway between canopy and ISL values. Within the canopy there is distinct spatial partitioning into two flow regimes, the wake and non-wake regions. Both time-mean and conditional statistics take different values in these different regions of the canopy flow. We explain many of these features by appealing to a modified version of the mixing-layer hypothesis that links the dominant turbulent eddies to the instability of the inflexion point at canopy top. However, it is evident that these eddies are perturbed by the quasi-coherent wakes of the bluff canopy elements. Based upon an equation for the instantaneous velocity perturbation, we propose a criterion for deciding when the eddies linked to the inflexion point will dominate flow structure and when that structure will be replaced by an array of superimposed element wakes. In particular, we show that the resemblance of some features of the flow to the ISL does not mean that ISL dynamics operate within bluff-body canopies in any sense.  相似文献   

Accuracy assessment of georectified aerial photographs: Implications for measuring lateral channel movement in a GIS     

Michael L. Hughes  Patricia F. McDowell  W. Andrew Marcus 《Geomorphology》2006,74(1-4):1-16

Aerial photographs are commonly used to measure planform river channel change. We investigated the sources and implications of georectification error in the measurement of lateral channel movement by testing how the number (6–30) and type (human versus natural landscape features) of ground-control points (GCPs) and the order of the transformation polynomial (first-, second-, and third-order) affected the spatial accuracy of a typical georectified aerial photograph. Error was assessed using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the GCPs as well as error in 31 independent test points. The RMSE and the mean and median values of test-point errors were relatively insensitive to the number of GCPs above eight, but the upper range of test-point errors showed marked improvement (i.e., the number of extreme errors was reduced) as more GCPs were used for georectification. Using more GCPs thus improved overall georectification accuracy, but this improvement was not indicated by the RMSE, suggesting that independent test-points located in key areas of interest should be used in addition to RSME to evaluate georectification error.The order of the transformation polynomial also influenced test-point accuracy; the second-order polynomial function yielded the best result for the terrain of the study area. GCP type exerted a less consistent influence on test-point accuracy, suggesting that although hard-edged points (e.g., roof corners) are favored as GCPs, some soft-edged points (e.g., trees) may be used without adding significant error. Based upon these results, we believe that aerial photos of a floodplain landscape similar to that of our study can be consistently georectified to an accuracy of approximately ± 5 m, with 10% chance of greater error. The implications of georectification error for measuring lateral channel movement are demonstrated with a multiple buffer analysis, which documents the inverse relationship between the size of the buffers applied to two channel centerlines and the magnitude of change detected between them. This study demonstrates the importance of using an independent test-point analysis in addition to the RSME to evaluate and treat locational error in channel change studies.  相似文献   

Engineering geology for tomorrow's cities,edited by M.G. Culshaw, H.J. Reeves, I. Jefferson and T.W. Spink. Geological Society Engineering Geology Special Publication, 22, London, 2009. No. of pages: 303. Price: £95.00. ISBN 978‐1‐86239‐290‐8 (hardback).     

Will Hughes 《Geological Journal》2013,48(1):108-109

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