Assessment of radionuclide transport uncertainty in the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain     

Ming Ye  Feng Pan  Yu-Shu Wu  Bill X. Hu  Craig Shirley  Zhongbo Yu 《Advances in water resources》2007

The present study assesses the uncertainty of flow and radionuclide transport in the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain using a Monte Carlo method. Matrix permeability, porosity, and sorption coefficient are considered random. Different from previous studies that assume distributions of the parameters, the distributions are determined in this study by applying comprehensive transformations and rigorous statistics to on-site measurements of the parameters. The distribution of permeability is further adjusted based on model calibration results. Correlation between matrix permeability and porosity is incorporated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. After conducting 200 Monte Carlo simulations of three-dimensional unsaturated flow and radionuclide transport for conservative and reactive tracers, the mean, variances, and 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles for quantities of interest (e.g., matrix liquid saturation and water potential) are evaluated. The mean and 50th percentile are used as the mean predictions, and their associated predictive uncertainties are measured by the variances and the 5th and 95th percentiles (also known as uncertainty bounds). The mean predictions of matrix liquid saturation and water potential are in reasonable agreement with corresponding measurements. The uncertainty bounds include a large portion of the measurements, suggesting that the data variability can be partially explained by parameter uncertainty. The study illustrates propagation of predictive uncertainty of percolation flux, increasing downward from repository horizon to water table. Statistics from the breakthrough curves indicate that transport of the reactive tracer is delayed significantly by the sorption process, and prediction on the reactive tracer is of greater uncertainty than on the conservative tracer because randomness in the sorption coefficient increases the prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in radionuclide transport is related to uncertainty in the percolation flux, suggesting that reducing the former entails reduction in the latter.  相似文献   

Equatorial coronal arches and geomagnetic disturbance     

C. Sawyer  Shirley F. Hansen 《Solar physics》1972,26(2):370-377

Central-meridian passage of coronal equatorial arches is followed, statistically, after about 7 days by geomagnetic disturbance. Sector-boundary crossings at Earth are most likely to occur 5 days after arch CMP, while metric noise sources cluster at the location of the arches. This agrees with the location of the noise sources relative to sector boundaries described by Sakurai and Stone (1971), rather than with that found by Martres et al. (1970) for 1964 and 1966, and may indicate evolution of the relation between coronal and interplanetary structure. We looked for, but did not find, clustering of coronal arches at a particular phase of the Olsen rotation scheme.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.  相似文献   

Simulation of Regional Ground Water Flow and Salt Water Intrusion in Hernando County, Florida   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Varut Guvanasen  Shirley C. Wade  Mark D. Barcelo 《Ground water》2000,38(5):772-783

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An improved practical approach for estimating catchment-scale response functions through wavelet analysis     

Ravindra Dwivedi  Christopher Eastoe  John F. Knowles  Lejon Hamann  Thomas Meixner  Paul A. “Ty” Ferre  Christopher Castro  William E. Wright  Guo-Yue Niu  Rebecca Minor  Greg A. Barron-Gafford  Nathan Abramson  Bhaskar Mitra  Shirley A. Papuga  Michael Stanley  Jon Chorover 《水文研究》2021,35(3):e14082

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Axial rotation, orbital revolution and solar spin–orbit coupling     

James H. Shirley 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,368(1):280-282

The orbital motion of the Sun has been linked with solar variability, but the underlying physics remains unknown. A coupling of the solar axial rotation and the barycentric orbital revolution might account for the relationships found. Some recent published studies addressing the physics of this problem have made use of equations from rotational physics in order to model particle motions. However, our standard equations for rotational velocity do not accurately describe particle motions due to orbital revolution. The Sun's orbital motion is a state of free fall; in consequence, aside from very small tidal motions, the associated particle velocities do not vary as a function of position on or within the body of the Sun. In this note, I describe and illustrate the fundamental difference between particle motions in rotation and revolution, in order to dispel some part of the confusion that has arisen in the past and that which may yet arise in the future. This discussion highlights the principal physical difficulty that must be addressed and overcome by future dynamical spin–orbit coupling hypotheses.  相似文献   

Coronal disturbances     

W. J. Wagner  Richard T. Hansen  Shirley F. Hansen 《Solar physics》1974,34(2):453-459

A fast coronal transient event was observed simultaneously on 17 February 1972 by the Sacramento Peak Observatory 6-in. λ 5303 filter coronagraph and the High Altitude Observatory K-coronameter. We interpret the rapid opening of green line structure cospatial with the disappearance of a white light streamer as material motion of iron ions and electrons. Together with the subsequent two-fold increase in K-corona brightness in an adjacent region, this is taken as evidence of a transference of electrons to a new streamer in a realignment of magnetic flux tubes accompanying a flare.  相似文献   

An Approach to Quantify the Heat Wave Strength and Price a Heat Derivative for Risk Hedging     

Samuel S. P. SHEN  Benedikt KRAMPS  Shirley X. SUN  Barbara BAILEY 《大气科学进展》2012,29(1):1-9

Mitigating the heat stress via a derivative policy is a vital financial option for agricultural producers and other business sectors to strategically adapt to the climate change scenario. This study has provided an approach to identifying heat stress events and pricing the heat stress weather derivative due to persistent days of high surface air temperature (SAT). Cooling degree days (CDD) are used as the weather index for trade. In this study, a call-option model was used as an example for calculating the price of the index. Two heat stress indices were developed to describe the severity and physical impact of heat waves. The daily Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-D) SAT data from 1901 to 2007 from the southern California, USA, were used. A major California heat wave that occurred 20-25 October 1965 was studied. The derivative price was calculated based on the call-option model for both long-term station data and the interpolated grid point data at a regular 0.1 ×0.1 latitude-longitude grid. The resulting comparison indicates that (a) the interpolated data can be used as reliable proxy to price the CDD and (b) a normal distribution model cannot always be used to reliably calculate the CDD price. In conclusion, the data, models, and procedures described in this study have potential application in hedging agricultural and other risks.  相似文献   

Ground water recharge and flow characterization using multiple isotopes   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Chowdhury AH  Uliana M  Wade S 《Ground water》2008,46(3):426-436

Stable isotopes of delta(18)O, delta(2)H, and (13)C, radiogenic isotopes of (14)C and (3)H, and ground water chemical compositions were used to distinguish ground water, recharge areas, and possible recharge processes in an arid zone, fault-bounded alluvial aquifer. Recharge mainly occurs through exposed stream channel beds as opposed to subsurface inflow along mountain fronts. This recharge distribution pattern may also occur in other fault-bounded aquifers, with important implications for conceptualization of ground water flow systems, development of ground water models, and ground water resource management. Ground water along the mountain front near the basin margins contains low delta(18)O, (14)C (percent modern carbon [pmC]), and (3)H (tritium units [TU]), suggesting older recharge. In addition, water levels lie at greater depths, and basin-bounding faults that locally act as a flow barrier may further reduce subsurface inflow into the aquifer along the mountain front. Chemical differences in ground water composition, attributed to varying aquifer mineralogy and recharge processes, further discriminate the basin-margin and the basin-center water. Direct recharge through the indurated sandstones and mudstones in the basin center is minimal. Modern recharge in the aquifer is mainly through the broad, exposed stream channel beds containing coarse sand and gravel where ground water contains higher delta(18)O, (14)C (pmC), and (3)H (TU). Spatial differences in delta(18)O, (14)C (pmC), and (3)H (TU) and occurrences of extensive mudstones in the basin center suggest sluggish ground water movement, including local compartmentalization of the flow system.  相似文献   

Brightness variations of the white light corona during the years 1964–67     

Richard T. Hansen  Charles J. Garcia  Shirley F. Hansen  Harold G. Loomis 《Solar physics》1969,7(3):417-433

Observations of the white light corona were made on over 900 days during the years 1964–67 at heights between 1.125 and 2.0 R with the K-coronameter at Mount Haleakala and Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The brightness distribution of the minimum corona was elliptical with average equatorial intensities three times the polar. Coronal features of the new cycle at 1.125 R occurred predominantly in the sunspot zones at 25–30° latitude and in a high latitude zone which migrated toward the North pole before solar maximum. The brightness of the inner corona doubled over this period and a close association is found between the average corona and 10.7-cm solar radio flux. Electron densities in the equatorial regions were nearly twice those of Van de Hulst's model corona, in agreement with the results of recent eclipse observations.At Hawaii Institute of Geophysics.  相似文献   

Global distribution of filaments during solar cycle No. 20     

Richard Hansen  Shirley Hansen 《Solar physics》1975,44(1):225-230

By tracing the positions of filaments on the solar disk for a series of consecutive Carrington rotations, one can make a compact representation of the changes in general topology of photospheric magnetic fields during the course of a solar cycle. Examples are shown for the time period 1964–1974, which may provide some insight into the long-term relationship of the mid-latitude diagonal filaments and the high latitude polar crown.  相似文献