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51.
Stephen E. Swearer Graham E. Forrester Mark A. Steele Andrew J. Brooks David W. Lea 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2003,56(5-6):1111-1123
We tested whether estuarine fishes have site-specific differences in the concentrations of trace elements in their otoliths that can be used as ‘fingerprints’ to identify them to their estuary of origin. To evaluate the robustness of this approach, we tested whether elemental fingerprints were consistent among individuals of five species that were collected in 1996 from three temperate estuaries in southern California. We also tested whether elemental fingerprints were consistent between spring and autumn 1996 for three species in one of the sites, Carpinteria Marsh. The species evaluated comprised a mid-water-dwelling smelt (Atherinops affinis), two benthic gobies (Clevelandia ios and Ilypnus gilberti), and two flatfish (Paralichthys californicus and Hypsopsetta guttulata). The concentrations of six elements (Mn, Cu, Zn, Sr, Ba, and Pb) were determined in the otoliths using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Within estuaries, the five species exhibited strong variation in elemental concentration, indicating substantial interspecific differences in otolith environmental history. When the five fish species were considered separately, multivariate (MANOVA) and univariate (ANOVA) analyses of variance indicated that the elemental composition of otoliths differed significantly among the estuaries in four of the five species. Based on linear discriminant function analyses (DFA), differences were strong enough that trace element composition could be used to accurately assign fish to their site of origin [mean (range): 93.5% (74–100%)]. However, elemental signatures within Carpinteria Marsh were not consistent between spring and autumn 1996, and this was reflected in a substantial reduction in the accuracy of assigning fish to their true site of origin. When we compared site differences between fish species (site×species interactions), the elemental fingerprints were most similar between closely related species (e.g. the two gobies and the two flatfish) and most dissimilar between distantly related species, both phylogenetically and ecologically. Among the six elements analyzed, Sr and Ba exhibited the most inconsistent pattern among species, with significant differences in 80 and 70% of the pairwise species comparisons, respectively. The remaining four elements showed ≥70% consistency in the pattern of variation among sites for the different species. Thus, while otolith elemental fingerprinting can be a useful tool for inferring estuarine residency, such fingerprints may be temporally variable and species specific. 相似文献
52.
Simulation by CMIP5 models of the atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its climate impacts 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This study focuses on the climatic impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) as a mode of internal variability. Given the difficulties involved in excluding the effects of external forcing from internal variation, i.e., owing to the short record length of instrumental observations and historical simulations, we assess and compare the AMO and its related climatic impacts both in observations and in the “Pre-industrial” experiments of models participating in CMIP5. First, we evaluate the skill of the 25 CMIP5 models’ “Historical” simulations in simulating the observational AMO, and find there is generally a considerable range of skill among them in this regard. Six of the models with higher skill relative to the other models are selected to investigate the AMO-related climate impacts, and it is found that their “Pre-industrial” simulations capture the essential features of the AMO. A positive AMO favors warmer surface temperature around the North Atlantic, and the Atlantic ITCZ shifts northward leading to more rainfall in the Sahel and less rainfall in Brazil. Furthermore, the results confirm the existence of a teleconnection between the AMO and East Asian surface temperature, as well as the late withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon, during positive AMO phases. These connections could be mainly caused by internal climate variability. Opposite patterns are true for the negative phase of the AMO. 相似文献
53.
54.
Hanna Hadler Peter Fischer Lea Obrocki Michael Heinzelmann Andreas Vött 《Sedimentology》2020,67(3):1309-1343
Ostia, the ancient port of Rome at the mouth of the river Tiber (Italy), flourished until the 2nd Century ad , although massive siltation had already caused the abandonment of its lagoonal harbour in the 1st Century bc . In search of an alternative harbour site, geomorphological and geoarchaeological research was carried out in the ‘Fiume Morto’, an abandoned Tiber meander to the immediate north of the town. To reconstruct its complex development and evaluate the suitability of the river channel as a fluvial harbour, a transect perpendicular to the former river channel's flow axis was systematically explored by a new methodological approach combining electrical resistivity tomography, direct push-electrical conductivity sensing and vibracores. Together with microfossil, mineralogical and geochemical analyses of sediment samples and 50 radiocarbon dates, in-depth stratigraphic data support a detailed reconstruction of different Tiber channel generations. Results reveal a meander development closely related to distinct ‘cut and fill’ dynamics. Inactive river channels were repeatedly filled with lagoonal sediments, abruptly followed by phases of intense incision. Yet, the overall Fiume Morto channel structure remained stable and almost in situ over centuries, showing nearly no lateral changes since the southward shift of the Tiber River mouth in the first millennium bc . In the 1st Century bc , channel conditions favoured navigation and transportation of goods with large ships. Open-water conditions, suitable for anchoring and landing activities, dominate from the 1st Century ad until 1557 ad , when the Fiume Morto meander was finally cut off and silted up within a short time. Within the fluvial deposits, sediments most likely related to tsunami inundations are preserved. These events occurred sometime before the 2nd Century bc , in the early 1st Century ad and in the 17th Century ad or later. Results are consistent with traces of tsunami influence found in Ostia's western lagoonal harbour. 相似文献
55.
Lea Obrocki Andreas Vött Dennis Wilken Peter Fischer Timo Willershäuser Benjamin Koster Franziska Lang Ioannis Papanikolaou Wolfgang Rabbel Klaus Reicherter 《Sedimentology》2020,67(3):1274-1308
The western Peloponnese was repeatedly hit by major tsunami impacts during historical times as reported by historical accounts and recorded in earthquake and tsunami catalogues. Geological signatures of past tsunami impacts have also been found in many coastal geological archives. During the past years, abundant geomorphological and sedimentary evidence of repeated Holocene tsunami landfall was found between Cape Katakolo and the city of Kyparissia. Moreover, neotectonic studies revealed strong crust uplift along regional faults with amounts of uplift between 13 m and 30 m since the mid-Holocene. This study focuses on the potential of direct push in situ sensing techniques to detect tsunami sediments along the Gulf of Kyparissia. Direct push measurements were conducted on the landward shores of the Kaiafa Lagoon and the former Mouria Lagoon from which sedimentary and microfaunal evidence for tsunami landfall are already known. Direct push methods helped to decipher in situ high-resolution stratigraphic records of allochthonous sand sheets that are used to document different kinds of sedimentological and geomorphological characteristics of high-energy inundation, such as abrupt increases in grain size, integration of muddy rip-up clasts and fining upward sequences which are representative of different tsunami inundation pulses. These investigations were completed by sediment coring as a base for local calibration of geophysical direct push parameters. Surface-based electrical resistivity tomography and seismic data with highly resolved vertical direct push datasets and sediment core data were all coupled in order to improve the quality of the geophysical models. Details of this methodological approach, new in palaeotsunami research, are presented and discussed, especially with respect to the question of how the obtained results may help to facilitate tracing tsunami signatures in the sedimentary record and deciphering geomorphological characteristics of past tsunami inundation. Using direct push techniques and based on sedimentary data, sedimentary signatures of two young tsunami impacts that hit the Kaiafa Lagoon were detected. Radiocarbon age control allowed the identification of these tsunami layers as candidates for the ad 551 and ad 1303 earthquake and tsunami events. For these events, there is reliable historical data on major damage on infrastructure in western Greece and on the Peloponnese. At the former Mouria Lagoon, corroborating tsunami traces were found; however, in this case it is difficult to decide whether these signatures were caused by the ad 551 or the ad 1303 event. 相似文献
56.
57.
Conditional risk based on multivariate hazard scenarios 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Mauro?Bernardi Fabrizio?DuranteEmail authorView authors OrcID profile Piotr?Jaworski Lea?Petrella Gianfausto?Salvadori 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(1):203-211
We present a novel methodology to compute conditional risk measures when the conditioning event depends on a number of random variables. Specifically, given a random vector \((\mathbf {X},Y)\), we consider risk measures that express the risk of Y given that \(\mathbf {X}\) assumes values in an extreme multidimensional region. In particular, the considered risky regions are related to the AND, OR, Kendall and Survival Kendall hazard scenarios that are commonly used in environmental literature. Several closed formulas are considered (especially in the AND and OR scenarios). An application to spatial risk analysis involving real data is discussed. 相似文献
58.
Christina M. Leonard Carl J. Legleiter Devin M. Lea John C. Schmidt 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(11):2727-2744
Channels change in response to natural or anthropogenic fluctuations in streamflow and/or sediment supply and measurements of channel change are critical to many river management applications. Whereas repeated field surveys are costly and time-consuming, remote sensing can be used to detect channel change at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Repeat images have been widely used to measure long-term channel change, but these measurements are only significant if the magnitude of change exceeds the uncertainty. Existing methods for characterizing uncertainty have two important limitations. First, while the use of a spatially variable image co-registration error avoids the assumption that errors are spatially uniform, this type of error, as originally formulated, can only be applied to linear channel adjustments, which provide less information on channel change than polygons of erosion and deposition. Second, previous methods use a level-of-detection (LoD) threshold to remove non-significant measurements, which is problematic because real changes that occurred but were smaller than the LoD threshold would be removed. In this study, we present a new method of quantifying uncertainty associated with channel change based on probabilistic, spatially varying estimates of co-registration error and digitization uncertainty that obviates a LoD threshold. The spatially distributed probabilistic (SDP) method can be applied to both linear channel adjustments and polygons of erosion and deposition, making this the first uncertainty method generalizable to all metrics of channel change. Using a case study from the Yampa River, Colorado, we show that the SDP method reduced the magnitude of uncertainty and enabled us to detect smaller channel changes as significant. Additionally, the distributional information provided by the SDP method allowed us to report the magnitude of channel change with an appropriate level of confidence in cases where a simple LoD approach yielded an indeterminate result. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
59.
Determination of importance for comprehensive topographic factors on landslide hazard mapping using artificial neural network 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Mutasem Sh. Alkhasawneh Umi Kalthum Ngah Lea Tien Tay Nor Ashidi Mat Isa 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(3):787-799
A landslide is one of the natural disasters that occur in Malaysia. In addition to the geological factor and the rain as triggering factor, topographic factors such as elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, and curvature are considered as the main causes of landslides. The study in this paper was conducted in three stages. The first stage involved the extraction of extra topographic factors. Previous landslide studies had identified only four of the topographic factors. However, eight new additional factors have also been identified in this study. They are general curvature, longitudinal curvature, tangential curvature, cross-section curvature, surface area, diagonal line length, surface roughness, and rugosity. At this stage, 13 factors were extracted from the digital elevation model. The second stage involved specifying the importance of each factor. The multilayer perceptron network and backpropagation algorithm were used to specify the weight of each factor. Results were verified using the receiver operating characteristics based on the area under the curve method in the third stage. The results indicated 76.07 % accuracy in predicting of landslides, with slope angle as the most important factor while the tangential curvature has the least importance. 相似文献
60.
The incidence of large rain events in Mediterranean ecosystems vary among years. Summer aridity is interpreted as a resetting event, eliminating previous soil‐moisture dynamics. The dynamics of soil moisture and retention are critical to tree survival, particularly in dry regions. This study examines the long‐term soil water content (θV) dynamics in two distinct locations within the forest, under the canopy and forest clearing, within two diverse oak forests: subhumid mixed oak forests (MG) and semiarid monospecific oak woodlands (YE). Plots were established at small‐scale catchments and soil water contents were measured during 2010–2013, at three depths in the two different locations. Cumulative rainfall was used as an independent proxy for θV analysis. A novel bell‐bilogistic mathematical model of wetting, saturation, and drying arms was developed. We aimed to study the θV distribution differences between soil profiles giving the large climatic gradient between the two forested sub basins, the differences in vegetation traits along with soil attributes. We further aimed at determining the role of an individual tree in regulating soil‐moisture dynamics. We hypothesized the occurrence of distinct responses between sites in all soil‐moisture indices with higher θV at the wetter site. We tested the hypothesis that seasonal cumulative rainfall dictates the variations in soil‐moisture regimes throughout contiguous years. Annual rainfall was higher than long‐term average throughout the study. Soil profiles under the canopies at both sites were consistently wetter. Infiltration and depletion constants were higher at MG whereas maximum soil moisture was higher at YE. Homogenous recharge patterns were seen at MG although YE evinced more variation. Oaks had no effect on recharge at MG compared with the forest clearing. Soil properties primarily affected the wetting arm whereas vegetation composition regulated the drying arm. Mixed‐stands characterized by ever‐green and deciduous species may maintain favourable soil‐moisture conditions, in comparison with other mixed stand morphologies. The increasing role of slacking forces in infiltration process may alter the interaction between trees and herbaceous vegetation. 相似文献