Radar rainfall estimation for flash flood forecasting in small urban watersheds     

James A. Smith  Mary Lynn Baeck  Katherine L. Meierdiercks  Andrew J. Miller  Witold F. Krajewski 《Advances in water resources》2007

Radar rainfall estimation for flash flood forecasting in small, urban catchments is examined through analyses of radar, rain gage and discharge observations from the 14.3 km² Dead Run drainage basin in Baltimore County, Maryland. The flash flood forecasting problem pushes the envelope of rainfall estimation to time and space scales that are commensurate with the scales at which the fundamental governing laws of land surface processes are derived. Analyses of radar rainfall estimates are based on volume scan WSR-88D reflectivity observations for 36 storms during the period 2003–2005. Gage-radar analyses show large spatial variability of storm total rainfall over the 14.3 km² basin for flash flood producing storms. The ability to capture the detailed spatial variation of rainfall for flash flood producing storms by WSR-88D rainfall estimates varies markedly from event to event. As spatial scale decreases from the 14.3 km² scale of the Dead Run watershed to 1 km² (and the characteristic time scale of flash flood producing rainfall decreases from 1 h to 15 min) the predictability of flash flood response from WSR-88D rainfall estimates decreases sharply. Storm to storm variability of multiplicative bias in storm total rainfall estimates is a dominant element of the error structure of radar rainfall estimates, and it varies systematically over the warm season and with flood magnitude. Analyses of the 7 July 2004 and 28 June 2005 storms illustrate microphysical and dynamical controls on radar estimation error for extreme flash flood producing storms.  相似文献   

Finite element modelling of thick plates on two‐parameter elastic foundation     

Ryszard Buczkowski  Witold Torbacki 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2001,25(14):1409-1427

This paper is intended to give some information about how to build a model necessary for bending analysis of rectangular and circular plates resting on a two‐parameter elastic foundation, subjected to combined loading and permitting various types of boundary conditions. The formulation of the problem takes into account the shear deformation of the plate and the surrounding interaction effect outside the plate. The numerical model based on an 18‐node zero‐thickness isoparametric interface element interacting with a thick Reissner–Mindlin plate element with three degrees of freedom at each of the nine nodes, which enforce C⁰ continuity requirements for the displacements and rotations of the midsurface, is proposed. Stiffness matrices of a special interface element are superimposed on the global stiffness matrix to represent the stiffening elastic foundation under and beyond the plate. Some numerical examples are given to illustrate the advantages of the method presented. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Quaternary sediments in the Dien Bien Phu fault zone, NW Vietnam: a record of young tectonic processes in the light of OSL-SAR dating results   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Witold Zuchiewicz  Nguyen Quoc Cuong  Andrzej Bluszcz  Marek Michalik   《Geomorphology》2004,60(3-4):269-302

The Dien Bien Phu fault zone (DBP), orientated NNE to N, is one of the most seismically active zones in Indochina. In NW Vietnam, this zone is 160 km long and 6–10 km wide, cutting sedimentary and metamorphic rocks of the Late Proterozoic, Palaeozoic and Mesozoic age, as well as Palaeozoic and Late Triassic granitoids. Along the DBP relatively small, narrow pull-apart basins occur, the three largest of which (Chan Nua, Lai Chau and Dien Bien Phu) have been studied in detail. All of them are bounded by sinistral and sinistral-normal faults, responsible for offset and deflected drainage, presence of numerous shutter ridges and displaced terraces and alluvial fans. The normal component of motion is testified to by well-preserved triangular facets on fault scarps, highly elevated straths in river watergaps, overhanging tributary valleys, as well as high and uneven river-bed gradients.Our observations indicate a minimum recent sinistral offset ranging from 6–8 to 150 m for Holocene valleys to 1.2–9.75 km for middle–late Pleistocene valleys in different fault segments. The thickness of Quaternary sediments varies from 5–25 m in the Lai Chau area to some 130 m in the Dien Bien Phu Basin. In the Lai Chau Basin, the middle terrace (23 m) alluvia of Nam Na River at Muong Te bridge have been optically stimulated luminescence/single aliquot regenerative dose technique (OSL-SAR) dated at 23–40 to 13 ka. These sediments were normal-faulted by some 11 m after 13 ka, and mantled by vari-coloured slope loams, 8–12 m thick, containing colluvial wedges composed of angular debris. These wedges were probably formed due to at least three palaeoseismic events postdating 6 ka. In the Dien Bien Phu Basin, in turn, alluvium of the upper Holocene terraces has been OSL-SAR dated to 6.5–7 and 1.7–1.0 ka, whereas the younger (sub-recent) terrace sediments give ages of 0.5–0.2 ka.Displaced terraces and alluvial fans allow us to suppose that the sinistral and sinistral-normal faults bounding narrow pull-apart basins in the southern portion of the DBP fault reveal minimum rates of left-lateral strike-slip ranging from 0.6 to 2 mm/year in Holocene and 0.5–3.8 mm/year in Pleistocene times, whereas rates of Holocene uplift tend to attain 1 mm/year north of Lai Chau and 0.4–0.6 mm/year west of Dien Bien Phu. More precise estimations, however, are difficult to obtain due to poor age control of the displaced drainage. Rates of Quaternary strike-slip are comparable with those of the Red River fault; the sense of movement being, however, opposite. Taking into account the presence of two phases of Late Cenozoic strike-slip of contrasting sense of motion, as well as the geometry of the two fault zones, we hypothesize that the Red River and Dien Bien Phu faults are conjugate faults capable of generating relatively strong earthquakes in the future.  相似文献   

Book review     

David Gubbins  Emile A. Okal  Roberto Scarpa  R. E. Anderson  Leszek Czechowski  Rodney W. Page  Bernhard Spörli  Magdalena Kądziałko-Hofmokl  J. A. Majorowicz  Gregory Houseman  Donald L. Turcotte  David F. McTigue  Teng-fong Wong  David Lockner  David V. Wiltschko  David M. Fountain  G. P. Glasby  R. J. Angel  S. J. Gibowicz  Jonathan Franzen  Kacper R. Rybicki  Brian Farrell  Anil Suri  Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz  Witold G. Strupczewski 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,127(4):695-752

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Maneuvering control and trajectory tracking of very large crude carrier     

Witold Gierusz  Nguyen Cong Vinh  Andrzej Rak 《Ocean Engineering》2007,34(7):932-945

This paper presents a complex control system of the ship motions in confined waters. The general structure of this system is based on the two different controllers connected in parallel. They are dedicated to the different tasks and operate in different conditions. One of them is based on the robust control technology while another is based on the fuzzy logic technique. To decide which controller to use depends on the velocity of the vessel. The control system was implemented at the first stage on a nonlinear multi-variable simulation model and at the second stage on a real-time object—floating, autonomous model of the very large crude carrier (VLCC tanker). The whole system was developed in the MATLAB/Simulink platform.  相似文献   

Review of the Different Sources of Uncertainty in Single Polarization Radar-Based Estimates of Rainfall   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Gabriele Villarini  Witold F. Krajewski 《Surveys in Geophysics》2010,31(1):107-129

It is well acknowledged that there are large uncertainties associated with radar-based estimates of rainfall. Numerous sources of these errors are due to parameter estimation, the observational system and measurement principles, and not fully understood physical processes. Propagation of these uncertainties through all models for which radar-rainfall are used as input (e.g., hydrologic models) or as initial conditions (e.g., weather forecasting models) is necessary to enhance the understanding and interpretation of the obtained results. The aim of this paper is to provide an extensive literature review of the principal sources of error affecting single polarization radar-based rainfall estimates. These include radar miscalibration, attenuation, ground clutter and anomalous propagation, beam blockage, variability of the Z–R relation, range degradation, vertical variability of the precipitation system, vertical air motion and precipitation drift, and temporal sampling errors. Finally, the authors report some recent results from empirically-based modeling of the total radar-rainfall uncertainties. The bibliography comprises over 200 peer reviewed journal articles.  相似文献   

Chemistry of sediments from the Dobezyce Reservoir, Poland, and the environmental implications     

Witold RECZYNSKI  Malgorzata JAKUBOWSKA  Janusz GOLAS  Andrew PARKER  Barbara KUBICA 《国际泥沙研究》2010,25(1):28-38

Sediments samples of the Dobczyce Reservoir(South Poland) were taken in three successive years(2004-06) at 17 points,analyzed for 12 elements by atomic absorption spectrometry.Substantial variations in elemental composition due to hydrological and environmental reasons were found.The use of statistical and chemometric tools enabled objective and effective analysis of the data obtained,both in case of long term observations as well as in terms of interpretation of incidental changes in metal concentrations.T...  相似文献   

Estimation of radar-rainfall error spatial correlation     

Pradeep V. Mandapaka  Witold F. Krajewski  Grzegorz J. Ciach  Gabriele Villarini  James A. Smith 《Advances in water resources》2009

The study presents a theoretical framework for estimating the radar-rainfall error spatial correlation (ESC) using data from relatively dense rain gauge networks. The error is defined as the difference between the radar estimate and the corresponding true areal rainfall. The method is analogous to the error variance separation that corrects the error variance of a radar-rainfall product for gauge representativeness errors. The study demonstrates the necessity to consider the area–point uncertainties while estimating the spatial correlation structure in the radar-rainfall errors. To validate the method, the authors conduct a Monte Carlo simulation experiment with synthetic fields with known error spatial correlation structure. These tests reveal that the proposed method, which accounts for the area–point distortions in the estimation of radar-rainfall ESC, performs very effectively. The authors then apply the method to estimate the ESC of the National Weather Service’s standard hourly radar-rainfall products, known as digital precipitation arrays (DPA). Data from the Oklahoma Micronet rain gauge network (with the grid step of about 5 km) are used as the ground reference for the DPAs. This application shows that the radar-rainfall errors are spatially correlated with a correlation distance of about 20 km. The results also demonstrate that the spatial correlations of radar–gauge differences are considerably underestimated, especially at small distances, as the area–point uncertainties are ignored.  相似文献   

Four-dimensional reflectivity data comparison between two ground-based radars: methodology and statistical analysis     

Bong-Chul Seo  Witold F. Krajewski  James A. Smith 《水文科学杂志》2014,59(7):1320-1334

Abstract

A methodology is proposed to compare radar reflectivity data obtained from two partially overlapping ground-based radars in order to explain relative differences in radar-rainfall products and establish sound merging procedures for multi-radar observing networks. To identify radar calibration differences, radar reflectivity is compared for well-matched radar sampling volumes viewing common meteorological targets. Temporal separation and three-dimensional matching of two different sampling volumes were considered based on the original polar coordinates of radar observation. Since the proposed method assumes radar beam propagation under standard atmospheric conditions, anomalous propagation cases were eliminated from the analysis. The reflectivity comparison results show systematic differences over time, but the variability of these differences is surprisingly large due to the sensitive nature of the radar reflectivity measurement.