Research Progress and Prospect on Reactivation of Ancient Landslides     

Yongshuang Zhang  Ruian Wu  Changbao Guo  Lichao Wang  Xin Yao  Zhihua Yang 《地球科学进展》2018,33(7):728-740

The ancient landslide has endured long-term slope evolution which results in its complicated material and special rock-soil properties. The risk of ancient landslide reactivation is substantially increasing due to the increase of intensified human engineering activities and the frequency of extreme weather events. Many ancient landslides have been reactivated all over the world and led to serious fatalities and severe damage to many important engineering facilities such as transportation and hydropower engineering projects. On the basis of the analysis of the research situation about the ancient landslides at home and abroad, the main research advances were summarized including the regional developing laws and recognizing of the ancient landslides, the mechanics properties of ancient landslide body and related sliding zone, reactivation mechanism of ancient landslides, reactivating process and modeling analysis of ancient landslides, early recognization of ancient landslide reactivation, etc. To meet the demands of disaster prevention and reduction, three key scientific issues were put forward to be solved: ①automaticaly establishing the methodology and identification criterions for recognition of ancient landslide; ②revealing the reactivation mechanism of ancient landslide based on a new strength theory; ③establishing the early rapid recognition method and predictive model for ancient landslide reactivation. Solving the above mentioned scientific theory and methodology will facilitate the planning and site selection of major projects as well as the disaster prevention and reduction in ancient landslide developing areas.  相似文献   

Progress and Prospect of Statistics and Assessment of Large-scale Natural Disaster Damage and Losses     

Xi Wang  Hongjian Zhou 《地球科学进展》2018,33(9):914-921

In June 2014, the "Statistics System for the Damage and Loss of Large-scale Natural Disasters" (SSDLLND) was issued by the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Office of National Disaster Reduction Committee, which marked that the statistics and assessment of China's catastrophic natural disaster damage and losses formally entered a new stage of institutionalization. On the basis of analyzing the five major international disaster damage and loss assessment systems, including HAZUS-MH, ECLAC, DaLA, EMA-DLA and PDNA, the differences between the “SSDLLND” of China and five major international systems were compared from the statistics and assessment contents and indicators. Combined with the statistics and assessment practices of China’s large-scale disaster damage and losses and the characteristics of international systems in recent years, the future development of the SSDLLND were proposed in three aspects: Enriching and improving the framework of damage and loss statistics content, stepwise improvement of disaster impact assessment methods (such as the ecological capital loss assessment, tourism industry loss assessment due to the disasters, etc.), and improving indicators and parameters of loss statistics. The study has an important practical significance for improving the statistics and assessment system of the damage and loss of major natural disasters and better serving the post-disaster recovery and reconstruction decision-making.  相似文献   

Intraseasonal oscillation of the rainfall variability over Rwanda and evaluation of its subseasonal forecasting skill          下载免费PDF全文

Xuan Zhou  Lin Chen  Janet Umuhoza  Yifeng Cheng  Lu Wang  Ran Wang 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(6):60-65

非洲中东部地区的经济主要依靠自给农业支撑,该地区农业经济对降水的变化尤为敏感.本文以卢旺达为例,观测分析指出卢旺达的次季节降雨主要集中在10-25天;根据次季节尺度降水变率的单点相关方法,发现卢旺达的次季节降水变率和周围区域变化一致;进一步合成结果显示该地区次季节降水变率与异常西风有关,这可追溯到赤道地区西传的赤道Rossby波.最后,本文评估了当前动力模式ECMWF对 卢旺达地区(即非洲中东部)次季节降水变率的预报能力,发现EC模式在对该区域降水和相关风场指数的预报技巧都在18天左右,且预报技巧表现出一定的年际差异,这可能与热带太平洋的背景海温信号有关.该工作增进了当 前对非洲中东部地区的次季节降水变率和预测水平的认知,并且对该地区国家粮食安全和防灾减灾具有启示性意义.  相似文献   

Intraseasonal oscillation of the southwest monsoon over Sri Lanka and evaluation of its subseasonal forecast skill          下载免费PDF全文

L.A.D.Buddika Bandurathna  Lu Wang  Xuan Zhou  Yifeng Cheng  Lin Chen 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(6):7-13

斯里兰卡的雨季发生于5-9月间,主要受西南季风的控制.本文发现该地区的西南季风降水存在很强的次季节变率,主导周期为10-35天.降水的季节内变化与西传的异常气旋有关.进一步,利用S2S比较计划中欧洲中心的数值预报模式(ECMWF)提供的回报试验数据,评估了当今动力模式对斯里兰卡西南季风次季节变化的预报技巧.结果显示,对季风指数的预测技巧超过30天,而对降水指数的预测技巧大约两周,且模式的预报技巧具有明显的年际差异.分析表明,能否正确模拟出大尺度环流对热带对流的响应是影响斯里兰卡降水预测的重要因子.  相似文献   

基于激光雨滴谱的双偏振雷达定量降水估测算法应用评估     

曾广宇  郭泽勇  周钦强  张弘豪  陈星登  郭佳 《气象研究与应用》2021,42(4):95-100

基于S波段双线偏振雷达资料、雨量计资料及激光雨滴谱数据,在CSU-ICE算法的基础上建立了CSU-LPA算法.以华南地区一次季风暴雨过程为评估对象,对CSU-LPA算法与传统PPS (Precipitation Processing System)算法进行了效果对比,评估该算法在业务中的应用效果.结果 表明,在绝对值相对误差指标上,CSU-LPA算法相对于PPS算法其估测误差减小了约16％;PPS算法在过程累计估测降水分布中存在几个区域的显著高估,且估测散点值分布离散,而CSU-LPA算法的估测结果与实况吻合度较高,估测散点值分布集中,说明新算法稳定性良好;单站小时累计估测降水中,CSU-LPA算法能有效抑制PPS算法的高估效应,尤其在累计雨量较大的时候体现得更为明显.  相似文献   

机器学习在广西台风极大风速预报中的应用     

吴玉霜  黄小燕  陈家正  赵华生 《气象研究与应用》2021,42(4):26-31

以1980-2020年广西台风期间桂林、梧州、龙州、南宁、玉林等5个气象观测站的地面日极大风速为研究对象,采用多元线性回归(MR)、支持向量机(SVM)、模糊神经网络(FNN)等三种较为常用的线性和非线性方法分别进行预报建模,对2011-2020年共10a独立样本的检验.结果 表明,在全样本风速预报的平均绝对误差上,FNN模型对桂林站、梧州站、龙州站、玉林站共4个站点预报的平均绝对误差最小,总体预报精度最好,MR预报模型则对南宁站有较好的预报能力,SVM模型预报效果总体偏差.对于6级以上大风的TS评分、命中率、空报率和预报偏差等4个评估指标的统计,FNN模型的预测精度最高且相对稳定,MR方案次之,SVM在三种方案中预报效果最差.FNN方法对广西台风期间地面日极大风速的预报有较好的参考作用.  相似文献   

一种盾构施工引起的地面沉降预测方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

周爱红  倪莹莹  尹超  孙武 《测绘科学》2018,(3):167-172

针对盾构施工引起的地面沉降的影响因素众多、关系错综复杂,常规数学模型难以准确预测沉降量的问题,该文提出了采用主成分分析法和粒子群优化的支持向量机方法来建立预测模型。并结合工程实例将预测结果与常用的多元线性回归模型和基于Levenberg-Marquardt算法改进的BP神经网络模型(LM-BP)的预测结果做了比较。结果表明:PCA-PSO-SVM的预测结果精度较多元线性回归模型和LM-BP神经网络有很大的提高,证明了该研究方法具有一定的理论意义和参考价值。  相似文献   

Beidou satellite maneuver thrust force estimation for precise orbit determination     

Jing Qiao  Wu Chen 《GPS Solutions》2018,22(2):42

Beidou satellites, especially geostationary earth orbit (GEO) and inclined geosynchronous orbit (IGSO) satellites, need to be frequently maneuvered to keep them in position due to various perturbations. The satellite ephemerides are not available during such maneuver periods. Precise estimation of thrust forces acting on satellites would provide continuous ephemerides during maneuver periods and could significantly improve orbit accuracy immediately after the maneuver. This would increase satellite usability for both real-time and post-processing applications. Using 1 year of observations from the Multi-GNSS Experiment network (MGEX), we estimate the precise maneuver periods for all Beidou satellites and the thrust forces. On average, GEO and IGSO satellites in the Beidou constellation are maneuvered 12 and 2 times, respectively, each year. For GEO satellites, the maneuvers are mainly in-plane, while out-of-plane maneuvers are observed for IGSO satellites and a small number of GEO satellites. In most cases, the Beidou satellite maneuver periods last 15–25 min, but can be as much as 2 h for the few out-of-plane maneuvers of GEO satellites. The thrust forces acting on Beidou satellites are normally in the order of 0.1–0.7 mm/s². This can cause changes in velocity of GEO/IGSO satellites in the order of several decimeters per second. In the extreme cases of GEO out-of-plane maneuvers, very large cross-track velocity changes are observed, namely 28 m/s, induced by 5.4 mm/s² thrust forces. Also, we demonstrate that by applying the estimated thrust forces in orbit integration, the orbit errors can be estimated at decimeter level in along- and cross-track directions during normal maneuver periods, and 1–2 m in all the orbital directions for the enormous GEO out-of-plane maneuver.  相似文献   

A new multipath mitigation method based on adaptive thresholding wavelet denoising and double reference shift strategy   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mingkun Su  Jiansheng Zheng  Yanxi Yang  Qiang Wu 《GPS Solutions》2018,22(2):40

Multipath disturbance is one of the major error sources in high-accuracy positioning for global navigation satellite system (GNSS). Although various methods based on software and hardware strategies have been developed to mitigate this error, they are still limited by different kinds of factors and the effect is not ideal. After analyzing the existing methods, a new single-difference sidereal filtering method, based on adaptive thresholding wavelet denoising and double reference shift strategy (ATDR), is proposed to mitigate multipath effects for static short-baseline GNSS applications. The key idea of the proposed method is the use of both the adaptive thresholding wavelet denoising to extract an accurate multipath correction model from the reference Day and the double reference shift strategy to mitigate multipath for subsequent Day 2 more accurately and efficiently. By applying the introduced adaptive thresholding method, the average improvement rate of the RMS values of the single-difference residuals can reach about 15.82% compared with the constant thresholding method. Moreover, after applying the proposed ATDR method, the 3D positioning precision is improved by about 37.73% for the single epoch mode with 30 s data sampling rate and about 31.22% for the continuous mode with 1 s high sampling rate compared with the original results. Even compared with the constant thresholding single orbital reference (CTSR) method, the improvement percentage is about 33.94% in single epoch mode and about 25.40% in continuous mode for 3D positioning precision, respectively. In conclusion, the results of the two experiments indicate that the proposed ATDR method performs much better than the CTSR method in mitigating multipath for different sampling rates and different processing modes in the measurement domain for GNSS static short-baseline postprocessing applications.  相似文献   

Revisit the calibration errors on experimental slant total electron content (TEC) determined with GPS     

Wenfeng Nie  Tianhe Xu  Adria Rovira-Garcia  José Miguel Juan Zornoza  Jaume Sanz Subirana  Guillermo González-Casado  Wu Chen  Guochang Xu 《GPS Solutions》2018,22(3):85

The calibration errors on experimental slant total electron content (TEC) determined with global positioning system (GPS) observations is revisited. Instead of the analysis of the calibration errors on the carrier phase leveled to code ionospheric observable, we focus on the accuracy analysis of the undifferenced ambiguity-fixed carrier phase ionospheric observable determined from a global distribution of permanent receivers. The results achieved are: (1) using data from an entire month within the last solar cycle maximum, the undifferenced ambiguity-fixed carrier phase ionospheric observable is found to be over one order of magnitude more accurate than the carrier phase leveled to code ionospheric observable and the raw code ionospheric observable. The observation error of the undifferenced ambiguity-fixed carrier phase ionospheric observable ranges from 0.05 to 0.11 total electron content unit (TECU) while that of the carrier phase leveled to code and the raw code ionospheric observable is from 0.65 to 1.65 and 3.14 to 7.48 TECU, respectively. (2) The time-varying receiver differential code bias (DCB), which presents clear day boundary discontinuity and intra-day variability pattern, contributes the most part of the observation error. This contribution is assessed by the short-term stability of the between-receiver DCB, which ranges from 0.06 to 0.17 TECU in a single day. (3) The remaining part of the observation errors presents a sidereal time cycle pattern, indicating the effects of the multipath. Further, the magnitude of the remaining part implies that the code multipath effects are much reduced. (4) The intra-day variation of the between-receiver DCB of the collocated stations suggests that estimating DCBs as a daily constant can have a mis-modeling error of at least several tenths of 1 TECU.  相似文献