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1.
本研究在WRF(v3.8.1)中分别使用MODIS 21类和USGS 24类土地利用类型数据,模拟了新疆2017年7月9日的极端高温天气,并在对模拟温度进行了高度订正的基础上,对比了两种土地利用数据对2 m温度预报的影响。结果表明:(1)MODIS和USGS在新疆地区的土地利用差异主要在阿尔泰山、天山以及南疆西部的昆仑山北部海拔3000 m以上的高山带,相应地,使用USGS模拟的这些高山带2 m气温明显高于使用MODIS的模拟值,最高偏高12 K左右,是全疆范围内两者偏差的极大值。(2)就新疆区域而言,使用USGS模拟的2 m气温整体优于使用MODIS的模拟值,且USGS模拟的2 m温度整体低于MODIS模拟的2 m温度。两者与实况的偏差多在2 K以内。(3)在伊犁河谷,MODIS土地利用类型主要为"旱地/草地",USGS为"草地"和"农田/林地马赛克"。伊犁河谷代表站点2 m温度模拟多以高温偏低、低温偏高为主。(4)与MODIS相比,USGS中哈密地区"农田/林地马赛克"所占比重明显增大。哈密地区多数代表站点高、低温均以偏低为主。(5)站点温度的高度订正多以调低为主,调低幅度最大值为1.9 K,出现在伊犁河谷的尼勒克站。站点2 m温度的调整幅度整体上明显大于MODIS和USGS模拟2 m温度的差值,由此可见温度高度订正的必要性。 相似文献
2.
基于中尺度数值模式WRF,选取新疆两次强降水过程,设计3个试验方案,其中试验1为控制试验,试验2提高分辨率,试验3提高分辨率并调整物理参数化方案,初步评估不同分辨率和参数化方案对新疆区域2m温度、10m风速、降水预报的影响。结果表明:(1)提高分辨率对2m温度、10m风速模拟精度均有提高,2m温度预报精度提高约0.5℃,降低了日间温度模拟冷偏差;10m风速预报精度提高约0.5m/s,降低了风速模拟正偏差;但提高分辨率后,模式出现虚假降水预报的情况。(2)提高分辨率并调整物理参数化方案后,2m温度模拟误差略有减小,模拟偏差减小约0.2℃;10m风速模拟误差增大约0.5m/s,模拟偏差增大超过0.5m/s;对降水落区、量级的模拟精度显著提高,减小了降水中心的模拟强度,对虚假降水预报有一定修正。 相似文献
3.
利用常规观测、FY-2E卫星及EC-Interim 0.5°×0.5°再分析资料对2010-2014年夏季天山及其两侧地区α中尺度对流系统(MαCS)的时空分布特点进行分析,并对典型个例的云图特征和环境条件进行了深入的探讨。结果表明:(1)6月为MαCS出现的高发期且椭圆形MαCS占多数。MαCS形成和发展期主要集中在午后和后半夜,消亡于前半夜,三个时期最易发生时间依次滞后大约2 h,圆形和椭圆形MαCS日频次分别呈单峰和多峰型变化分布。MαCS生命史主要为3~6 h,其中6月生命史分布较广,7-8月较集中;大部分椭圆形MαCS较圆形MαCS生命史和消亡阶段长,圆形MαCS在形成阶段维持时间较长。(2)MαCS多生成于山边平原或浅山区,并在山区主脉上空形成直至成熟,在河谷和山脉两侧的平原区消亡。MαCS成熟期冷云盖长轴长度集中在500~800 km,云顶面积随MαCS出现频次增加而逐渐减小。圆形MαCS发展期移动缓慢,成熟后移速加快,椭圆形MαCS始终移速较慢。MαCS云团TBBmin呈现单峰型且近似正态分布,圆形较椭圆形MαCS的TBB平均梯度大。(3)天山山区MαCS的形成主要是通过层云中多个独立的β中尺度对流云团合并形成。MαCS易发生在高层急流带的抽吸区以及中层低槽前部的辐合上升区,中低层西南和西北气流携带的充沛水汽在大气不稳定层结、不稳定能量持续聚集的背景下辐合上升,促使MαCS不断发展。 相似文献
4.
采用2013—2018年5—9月ECMWF细网格资料和阿勒泰地区36次短时强降水资料,用Micaps平台的模式探空模块计算T-log P图及其对流参数,运用统计学方法进行了误差检验。结果表明:模式探空T-log P图48 h预报时效内一致性较高(72%),尤其是24 h预报时效内(92%);72 h预报时效内总指数和干暖盖指数及垂直风切变、60 h预报时效内沙氏指数、48 h预报时效内风暴相对螺旋度和36 h预报时效内850与500 hPa温度差、对流温度、最大抬升指数、抬升指数以及24 h预报时效内K指数、700与850 hPa假相当位温差、大风指数等对流参数的3种误差均较小(3.5),相关系数较高(0.60),特别是沙氏指数、K指数、700与850 hPa假相当位温差、垂直风切变和风暴相对螺旋度的3种误差1.5。T-log P图的一致性随时效的延长而减小,对流参数的误差随预报时效的延长变化不一致,在强对流潜势预报业务中注意订正运用。 相似文献
5.
The Semail ophiolite located in the eastern part of the Arabian platform preserves remnants of ocean plate stratigraphy and related metamorphic sole. To understand the petro-tectonic evolution of a metamorphic sole during subduction to obduction processes, here we investigate the garnet metagabbros from the metamorphic sole and the tonalites which intruded the mantle section of the Khor Fakkan Block. We present results from petrology, geochemistry, zircon U-Pb, Hf and O isotope analyses and phase equilibria modeling. The garnet metagabbro samples have E-MORB-type enriched-mantle compositions with zircon dates of ca. 89–96 Ma, and positive εHf(t) values ranging from 5.6 to 10.0. The tonalite is peraluminous with those range of ca. 87–92 Ma, and a range of positive εHf(t) values of 5.1–10.0. The similarity in εHf values from both the garnet metagabbro and tonalite samples suggests a strong relevance to their mantle source, indicating the role of subducted material during their formation. In contrast, the δ18O(zircon) values show distinctly different values of high δ18O(zircon) of ~13–16‰ for the tonalite and ~ 5–8‰ for the metagabbro samples, reflecting variations in the role of surface-derived source materials. The phase equilibria modeling of the garnet metagabbro shows high-pressure amphibolite facies metamorphism that preceded the peak granulite facies metamorphism, followed by lower pressure hydration and decompression. This clockwise P-T path might reflect partial melting and differentiation of mantle wedge section above subducted slab. Our results provide insights into the complex processes within a supra-subduction zone, implying differences in degree of partial melting of the ocean plate stratigraphic sequences including recycled oceanic slab and surface-derived marine sediments that were subsequently interacted with hydrothermally altered mantle at a mantle wedge during subduction to obduction processes that formed the Semail ophiolite during the Upper Cretaceous. 相似文献
6.
The Taklimakan Desert, the world's second largest desert, plays an important role in regional climate change. Previous studies on its spatial temperature features suffered from sparse conventional detection data, but the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder(AIRS) provides excellent temperature retrievals with high spatiotemporal resolution. Validation of AIRS temperature retrievals over desert regions with high land-surface emissivity, the key contributor to inversion error, is essential before using these data in regional weather/climate modeling. This paper examines the correlation coefficients, root mean square error(RMSE) and mean BIAS between AIRS-retrieved atmospheric temperature data and radiosonde observations(RAOBs) in the Taklimakan Desert hinterland and oases in the morning and at dusk. Firstly, the AIRS retrievals are consistent with RAOBs and are more consistent in the morning than at dusk. The consistency is better over a small-scale desert oasis than over a large-scale oasis in the morning and exhibits the opposite trend at dusk. The correlation coefficient over the hinterland is high in the morning but negative at dusk due to high desert-surface emissivity. Second, the RMSEs, which are all smaller than 3 K, are generally higher over desert sites than over oasis sites and slightly lower over a small-scale oasis than over a large-scale oasis in the morning. At dusk, the RMSEs are higher over desert sites than over oases and slightly higher over a small-scale oasis than over a large-scale oasis. Furthermore, the RMSEs are generally higher in the morning than at dusk over a large-scale oasis and lower in the morning than at dusk over a small-scale oasis. Third, the absolute mean BIAS values are mostly lower than 1 K. In the morning, relative to RAOB temperatures, the retrieval temperatures are higher over desert sites but lower over oasis sites. At dusk, the retrieval temperatures are lower than RAOB temperatures over both desert and oasis sites. The retrieval temperatures are higher than RAOB temperatures over desert sites in the morning but slightly lower at dusk. Most absolute mean BIAS values are higher in the morning than at dusk over both oasis and desert sites. Finally, the consistency between the AIRS and RAOB temperature data is high from 700 hPa to 100 hPa in the morning and from 700 hPa to 300 hPa at dusk. The difference between the AIRS and RAOB temperature data is generally higher in the morning than that at dusk. The RMSE differences between the AIRS and RAOB data are slightly lower in the morning than at dusk and are lower in the middle layers between 700 hPa and 150 hPa than in the layers above 150 hPa during both the morning and night. The BIAS is lower in the morning than at dusk below 300 hPa but higher in the upper layers. Moreover, the BIAS value is positive in the middle layers between 500 hPa and 150 hPa and negative at other levels at both times. Generally, the AIRS retrieval temperatures are reliable and can be used in further studies in the Taklimakan Desert. 相似文献
7.
由于沙漠恶劣的环境,观测站点稀少,塔克拉玛干沙漠地区的温度、湿度时空分布很难仅仅依靠少量的常规观测资料分析得到,高分辨率的大气红外探测器（AIRS）资料可有效弥补这个空缺。地形和地表发射率是影响AIRS反演温湿度廓线产品进度的两大要素,在塔里木盆地的塔克拉玛干沙漠地区使用AIRS温湿度产品必须首先对其质量进行检验。本研究主要对2016年7月1~15日晴空背景下AIRS反演的温度、位势高度、水汽数据在塔克拉玛干沙漠及周边绿洲地区在早晨和傍晚的可信度作了详细的对比分析。结果表明：（1） AIRS卫星资料集里的温度资料与探空数据有很好的吻合度。温度资料在沙漠腹地尚有较小偏差,在周边绿洲地区尤其是其中高层一致性较高。AIRS反演温度在沙漠腹地的塔中站在早晨各层的偏差明显大于傍晚,其余各站早晨和傍晚反演偏差不大。（2） AIRS卫星测得的位势高度资料几乎与探空资料的完全一致,是本对比研究中观测质量最好的要素,但AIRS探测层次能达到1 hPa,探测高度优于探空。（3）反演的湿度廓线与探空偏差较大。AIRS资料的混合比在300 hPa上的高层与探空吻合,在中层偏干,低层偏湿,低层水汽探测误差可能与盆地地形和沙漠下垫面有关。（4）早晨沙漠腹地的塔中站AIRS反演气温平均偏差在各层均比其余7个绿洲站明显偏大,在500 hPa以下的低层明显偏冷,在其上明显偏暖,偏暖幅度随高度的升高而增大。早晨绿洲AIRS反演温度在所有气压层上温度偏差绝对值均在1℃以内,均方根误差小于2℃,傍晚偏差绝对值在3℃以内,均方根误差在700 hPa以下的低层较高层大,700 hPa以上在3℃以内。绝对误差在早晨和傍晚均随高度的升高而减小,在100 hPa以上又有逆转,这种逆转在塔中站尤为明显。 相似文献
8.
基于1961 - 2017年6 - 8月新疆北部47个观测站点的逐日降水资料, 根据百分位法定义不同站点的夏季极端降水阈值, 分析了新疆北部地区夏季极端降水事件和最大日降水的时空分布特征、 贡献率及其与海拔的关系。结果表明： 新疆北部地区夏季极端降水事件和最大日降水量的各个特征量分布存在明显的时空差异, 空间上夏季极端降水事件、 最大日降水量表现为山区高、 盆地低的特点,在海拔2 000 m左右存在一个最大降水带; 夏季极端降水事件和最大日降水量呈增多、 增强的趋势, 并从20世纪90年代前后开始有明显的增加。夏季极端降水事件主要以单日为主, 夏季极端降水贡献随时间呈缓慢增加的趋势, 而夏季极端降水过程贡献和最大日降水贡献随时间变化呈下降趋势。 相似文献
9.
O.M. Raspopov V.A. Dergachev M.G. Ogurtsov T. Kolström H. Jungner P.B. Dmitriev 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2011,73(2-3):388-399
Unique palaeoclimatic data with annual time resolution as tree ring widths and annual varve deposits are analyzed in order to reveal periodicities in climatic processes at tens to hundreds of million years ago. The climatic periodicities thus found are compared with the solar and climatic periodicities observed at present. 相似文献
10.
Controversy exists over the extent of glaciation in Eastern Asia at the Last Glacial Maximum: complete ice sheet cover vs. restricted mountain icefields (an area discrepancy equivalent to 3.7 Greenland Ice Sheets). Current arguments favour the latter. However, significant last glacial ice-rafted debris (IRD) exists in NW Pacific ocean cores, which must have been sourced from a major ice sheet somewhere bordering the North Pacific. The origin of this IRD is addressed through a combination of marine core analysis, iceberg trajectory modelling and remote sensing of glacial geomorphology. We find compelling evidence for two stages of glaciation centred on the Kamchatka area of maritime southeast Russia during the last glacial, with ice extent intermediate in size between previous maximum and minimum reconstructions. Furthermore, a significant increase in iceberg flux precedes, and accompanies, a substantial marine core ash deposit at around 40 ka BP. We speculate that rapid decay of the first stage of the ice sheet may have triggered substantial volcanic activity. 相似文献