CMIP5地球系统模式溶解氧模拟结果分析     

鲍颖  李阳春 《海洋学报(英文版)》2016,35(12):28-37

本文基于常用的统计方法,通过与WOA09观测的海洋溶解氧浓度数据进行比较,定量地评估了9个CMIP5地球系统模式在历史排放试验中海洋溶解氧气候态特征的模拟能力。在海表,由于地球系统模式均能很好地模拟海表温度（SST）,模式模拟的海表溶解氧浓度分布与观测一致,模拟结果无论是全球平均浓度偏差还是均方根误差均接近0,空间相关系数与标准偏差接近1。在海洋中层以及深层这些重要水团所在的区域,各模式的模拟能力则差异较大,尤其在溶解氧低值区（OMZs）所在的500m到1000m,各模式均出现全球平均偏差、均方根误差的极大值以及空间相关系数的极小值。在海洋内部,模式偏差的原因比较复杂。经向翻转环流和颗粒有机碳通量均对模式的偏差有贡献。分析结果表明物理场偏差对溶解氧偏差的贡献较大。一些重要水团,比如北大西洋深水,南极底层水以及北太平洋中层水在极大程度上影响了溶解氧在这些海区的分布。需要指出的是,虽然在海洋内部各模式模拟的溶解氧浓度偏差较大,但是多模式平均结果却能表现出与观测较好的一致性。  相似文献   

Three dimensional seismic studies of deep-water hazard-related features on the northern slope of South China Sea     

《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2016

Mass transport deposits and geological features related to fluid flow such as gas chimneys, mud diapirs and volcanos, pockmarks and gas hydrates are pervasive on the canyon dominated northern slope of the Pearl River Mouth basin of the South China Sea. These deposits and structures are linked to serious geohazards and are considered risk factors for seabed installations. Based on high resolution three dimensional seismic surveys, seismic characteristics, distributions and origins of these features are analyzed. A distribution map is presented and geometrical parameters and spatial distribution patterns are summarized. Results show that various groups of the mapped features are closely tied to local or regional tectonism and sedimentary processes. Mass transport complexes are classified as slides near the shelf break, initially deformed slumps on the flanks of canyons and highly deformed slumps on the lower slope downslope of the mouth of canyons. We propose them to be preconditioned by pore pressure changes related to sea level fluctuations, steep topography, and fluid and fault activities. Gas chimneys are mainly located in the vicinity of gas reservoirs, while bottom-simulating reflectors are observed within the gas chimney regions, suggesting gas chimneys serve as conduits for thermogenic gas. Mud diapirs/volcanos and pockmarks are observed in small numbers and the formation of pockmarks is related to underlying gas chimneys and faults. This study aims at reducing risks for deep-water engineering on the northern slope of South China Sea.  相似文献   

Geological control factors of micro oil distribution in tight reservoirs     

《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2016

Understanding the oil distribution characteristics in unconventional tight reservoirs is crucial for hydrocarbon evaluation and oil/gas extraction from such reservoirs. Previous studies on tight oil distribution characteristics are mostly concerned with the basin scale. Based on Lucaogou core samples, geochemical approaches including Soxhlet extraction, total organic carbon (TOC), and Rock-Eval are combined with reservoir physical approaches including mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP) and porosity-permeability analysis, to quantitatively evaluate oil distribution of tight reservoirs on micro scale. The emphasis is to identify the key geological control factors of micro oil distribution in such tight reservoirs. Dolomicrites and non-detrital mudstones have excellent hydrocarbon generation capacity while detritus-containing dolomites, siltstones, and silty mudstones have higher porosity and oil content, and coarser pore throat radius. Oil content is mainly controlled by porosity, pore throat radius, and hydrocarbon generation capacity. Porosity is positively correlated with oil content in almost all samples including various lithologies, indicating that it is a primary constraint for providing storage space. Pore throat radius is also an important factor, as oil migration is inhibited by the capillary pressure which must be overcome. If the reservoir rock with suitable porosity has no hydrocarbon generation capacity, pore throat radius will be decisive. As tight reservoirs are generally characterized by widely distributed nanoscale pore throats and high capillary pressure, hydrocarbon generation capacity plays an important role in reservoir rocks with suitable porosity and fine pore throats. Because such reservoir rocks cannot be charged completely. The positive correlation between hydrocarbon generation capacity and oil content in three types of high porosity lithologies (detritus-containing dolomites, siltstones, and silty mudstones) supports this assertion.  相似文献   

SoFISHticated policy – social perspectives on the fish conflict in the Northeast Atlantic     

《Marine Policy》2016

Ecosystem changes currently question the traditional allocation of fishing rights and quotas in the fishery of Northeast Atlantic mackerel and Norwegian spring-spawning herring in the Northeast Atlantic. Variability in the distribution of these highly migratory species escalated in a political conflict between member states of the European Union, Iceland, the Faroe Islands and Norway, which is a driving force for unsustainable fishery. The aim of this paper is to investigate this conflict by outlining the social understandings of diverse stakeholders by using the Q methodology. The method reduced the complexity of numerous opinions, detected four distinct perspectives and simultaneously categorised the participating stakeholders. Although the perspectives differ in various elements, the protection of economic interests seems to dominate over the quest for sustainability. The call of all stakeholders in this study to clarify the fishing rights in the Northeast Atlantic reveals a clear deficiency of the current international fishery management in handling abrupt ecological changes and the necessity to acknowledge this as a complex adaptive system.  相似文献   

Seasonal variations in the nitrogen isotopic composition of settling particles at station K2 in the western subarctic North Pacific     

Yoshihisa?MinoEmail author  Chiho?Sukigara  Makio?C.?Honda  Hajime?Kawakami  Kazuhiko?Matsumoto  Masahide?Wakita  Minoru?Kitamura  Tetsuichi?Fujiki  Kosei?Sasaoka  Osamu?Abe  Jan?Kaiser  Toshiro?Saino 《Journal of Oceanography》2016,72(6):819-836

Intensive observations using hydrographical cruises and moored sediment trap deployments during 2010 and 2012 at station K2 in the North Pacific Western Subarctic Gyre (WSG) revealed seasonal changes in δ ¹⁵N of both suspended and settling particles. Suspended particles (SUS) were collected from depths between the surface and 200 m; settling particles by drifting sediment traps (DST; 100–200 m) and moored sediment traps (MST; 200 and 500 m). All particles showed higher δ ¹⁵N values in winter and lower in summer, contrary to the expected by isotopic fractionation during phytoplankton nitrate consumption. We suggest that these observed isotopic patterns are due to ammonium consumption via light-controlled nitrification, which could induce variations in δ ¹⁵N(SUS) of 0.4–3.1 ‰ in the euphotic zone (EZ). The δ ¹⁵N(SUS) signature was reflected by δ ¹⁵N(DST) despite modifications during biogenic transformation from suspended particles in the EZ. δ ¹⁵N enrichment (average: 3.6 ‰) and the increase in C:N ratio (by 1.6) in settling particles suggests year-round contributions of metabolites from herbivorous zooplankton as well as TEPs produced by diatoms. Accordingly, seasonal δ ¹⁵N(DST) variations of 2.4–7.0 ‰ showed a significant correlation with primary productivity (PP) at K2. By applying the observed δ ¹⁵N(DST) vs. PP regression to δ ¹⁵N(MST) of 1.9–8.0 ‰, we constructed the first annual time-series of PP changes in the WSG. This new approach to estimate productivity can be a powerful tool for further understanding of the biological pump in the WSG, even though its validity needs to be examined carefully.  相似文献   

Cenozoic forearc gabbros from the northern zone of the Eastern Pontides Orogenic Belt,NE Turkey: Implications for slab window magmatism and convergent margin tectonics     

《Gondwana Research》2016

The Eastern Pontides Orogenic Belt represents one of the best examples of fossil convergent margins in the eastern Mediterranean region. However, the origin and geodynamic setting of the late Mesozoic–Cenozoic magmatism in this belt remain controversial due to lack of systematic geological, geochemical and chronological data. The general consensus is that the late Mesozoic–Cenozoic igneous activity is related to northward subduction of oceanic lithosphere in the late Mesozoic and following collision between Tauride and Pontide blocks in the early Cenozoic. Here we present a comprehensive study focusing on the origin and geodynamic setting of gabbro bodies exposed along a narrow zone, parallel to the southeastern coast of the eastern Black Sea basin, in the Northern Zone of the Eastern Pontides Orogenic Belt.The studied gabbro bodies are hosted within late Cretaceous basaltic, andesitic, and dacitic volcanics including pyroclastic rocks and interbedded sedimentary rocks. The gabbro bodies range in size from 0.1 km² to 1.5 km², and outcrop patterns vary from round or elliptical to markedly elongate with sharp and discordant contact with the host rocks. Their mineral assemblage includes mainly clinopyroxene, plagioclase, minor olivine, amphibole, magnetite and rarely orthopyroxene, biotite, zircon and titanite. The occurrence of sutured grain boundaries on clinopyroxene and plagioclase, and the presence of reverse compositional zoning in clinopyroxene and olivine suggest mixing between magmas of contrasting compositions during mineral growth. Thermobarometric computations indicate that the temperature at the beginning of crystallization was ~ 1250 °C and crystallization was polybaric. Zircon and titanite U–Pb ages indicate that these small intrusions were emplaced into crustal rocks of the Eastern Pontides Orogenic Belt during Lutetian (45 ± 2 Ma). The depletion of HFSE is consistent with the involvement of an arc-related source in the petrogenesis of these rocks, and low to moderate enrichment Ce, Rb, Ba, K, Pb, Sr and Th suggests that involvement of subducted oceanic sediment was modest. The low Th content and low Th/Yb indicate that the role of sediment addition was nevertheless limited. The Nd, Sr and Pb isotopic data are consistent with the interpretation that the dominant source component in these gabbros is a depleted, peridotitic mantle, and that crustal contamination is relatively unimportant. We suggest that mafic magmas that produced the gabbroic intrusions were derived from melting of a depleted mantle source under the forearc region of the Eastern Pontides Orogenic Belt during southward subduction of two oceanic plates separated by a mid-ocean ridge, leading to the formation of a slab window. We also infer fractional crystallization and assimilation during both magma storage in the crust–mantle transition zone and transfer into the overlying arc crust.  相似文献   

Long-Term Trends of Nutrients and Phytoplankton in Chesapeake Bay     

L. W. HardingJr.  C. L. Gallegos  E. S. Perry  W. D. Miller  J. E. Adolf  M. E. Mallonee  H. W. Paerl 《Estuaries and Coasts》2016,39(3):664-681

Climate effects on hydrology impart high variability to water-quality properties, including nutrient loadings, concentrations, and phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a), in estuarine and coastal ecosystems. Resolving long-term trends of these properties requires that we distinguish climate effects from secular changes reflecting anthropogenic eutrophication. Here, we test the hypothesis that strong climatic contrasts leading to irregular dry and wet periods contribute significantly to interannual variability of mean annual values of water-quality properties using in situ data for Chesapeake Bay. Climate effects are quantified using annual freshwater discharge from the Susquehanna River together with a synoptic climatology for the Chesapeake Bay region based on predominant sea-level pressure patterns. Time series of water-quality properties are analyzed using historical (1945–1983) and recent (1984–2012) data for the bay adjusted for climate effects on hydrology. Contemporary monitoring by the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) provides data for a period since mid-1984 that is significantly impacted by anthropogenic eutrophication, while historical data back to 1945 serve as historical context for a period prior to severe impairments. The generalized additive model (GAM) and the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) are developed for nutrient loadings and concentrations (total nitrogen—TN, nitrate?+?nitrate—NO₂?+?NO₃) at the Susquehanna River and water-quality properties in the bay proper, including dissolved nutrients (NO₂?+?NO₃, orthophosphate—PO₄), chl-a, diffuse light attenuation coefficient (K _D (PAR)), and chl-a/TN. Each statistical model consists of a sum of nonlinear functions to generate flow-adjusted time series and compute long-term trends accounting for climate effects on hydrology. We present results identifying successive periods of (1) eutrophication ca. 1945–1980 characterized by approximately doubled TN and NO₂?+?NO₃ loadings, leading to increased chl-a and associated ecosystem impairments, and (2) modest decreases of TN and NO₂?+?NO₃ loadings from 1981 to 2012, signaling a partial reversal of nutrient over-enrichment. Comparison of our findings with long-term trends of water-quality properties for a variety of estuarine and coastal ecosystems around the world reveals that trends for Chesapeake Bay are weaker than for other systems subject to strenuous management efforts, suggesting that more aggressive actions than those undertaken to date will be required to counter anthropogenic eutrophication of this valuable resource.  相似文献   

经略21世纪海上丝路之海洋环境特征:海流特征          下载免费PDF全文

陈璇  郑崇伟  李训强  孙威 《海洋开发与管理》2016,33(4):3-7

海流对于海洋渔业、海洋表层初级生产力分布、海洋物质输运等理化生现象有着重要影响。文章利用海洋再分析流场资料,简要分析印度洋海区和南海海区(20°S—30°N,30°E—130°E)的流场年平均以及季节变化特点,得出以下结论:1南海海区流场的季节变化显著,受到季风、黑潮和地形的共同影响作用,在东北季风期间存在沿粤东沿岸至海南岛南侧转向沿越南沿岸的一支流系,该流系的强度变化影响爪哇海等南海南侧海区流场变化。2苏拉威西岛东侧和加里曼丹岛西侧流系有明显的季节变化,在流动强盛的时期这两支流系均是偏南向流动;从爪哇海流出的海流常年存在,夏季附近流速最大,最大流速分布在1.0m/s。3赤道印度洋海区和非洲东岸的沿岸流存在明显的季节变化,上层海区流动的低流速区存在流向切变;沿岸流最大流速在5-9月出现,可达1.8m/s以上,而赤道流系则在11月,可达0.8m/s以上。  相似文献   

Hybrid N-order Lagrangian Interpolation Eulerian?Lagrangian Method for Salinity Calculation     

吴炎成  朱首贤  周林  游小宝  张文静 《海洋工程》2016,(2):283-295

The Eulerian?Lagrangian method (ELM) has been used by many ocean models as the solution of the advection equation, but the numerical error caused by interpolation imposes restriction on its accuracy. In the present study, hybrid N-order Lagrangian interpolation ELM (LiELM) is put forward in which the N-order Lagrangian interpolation is used at first, then the lower order Lagrangian interpolation is applied in the points where the interpolation results are abnormally higher or lower. The calculation results of a step-shaped salinity advection model are analyzed, which show that higher order (N=3?8) LiELM can reduce the mean numerical error of salinity calculation, but the numerical oscillation error is still significant. Even number order LiELM makes larger numerical oscillation error than its adjacent odd number order LiELM. Hybrid N-order LiELM can remove numerical oscillation, and it significantly reduces the mean numerical error when N is even and the current is in fixed direction, while it makes less effect on mean numerical error when N is odd or the current direction changes periodically. Hybrid odd number order LiELM makes less mean numerical error than its adjacent even number order LiELM when the current is in the fixed direction, while the mean numerical error decreases as N increases when the current direction changes periodically, so odd number of N may be better for application. Among various types of Hybrid N-order LiELM, the scheme reducing N-order directly to 1st-order may be the optimal for synthetic selection of accuracy and computational efficiency.  相似文献   

Exploring the spatial distribution patterns of South African Cape hakes using generalised additive models     

A Grüss  D Yemane  TP Fairweather 《African Journal of Marine Science》2016,38(3):395-409

We developed delta generalised additive models (GAMs) to predict the spatial distribution of different size classes of South African hakes, Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus, using demersal trawl survey data and geographical (latitude and longitude) and environmental features (depth, temperature, bottom dissolved oxygen and sediment type). Our approach consists of fitting, for each hake size class, two independent models, a binomial GAM and a quasi-Poisson GAM, whose predictions are then combined using the delta method. Delta GAMs were validated using an iterative cross-validation procedure, and their predictions were then employed to produce distribution maps for the southern Benguela. Delta GAM predictions confirmed existing knowledge about the spatial distribution patterns of South African hakes, and brought new insights into the factors influencing the presence/absence and abundance of these species. Our GAM approach can be used to produce distribution maps for spatially explicit ecosystem models of the southern Benguela in a rigorous and objective way. Ecosystem models are critical features of the ecosystem approach to fisheries, and distribution maps constructed using our GAM approach will enable a reliable allocation of species biomasses in spatially explicit ecosystem models, which will increase trust in the spatial overlaps and, therefore, the trophic interactions predicted by these models.  相似文献