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11.
12.
The arrival time difference for the AB branch of PKP from deep Tonga earthquakes is constant over years with a standard deviation of ±0.05 seconds at seismographs located 10 to 50 km from each other. If published travel time curves are used to calculate the relative residuals of PKP the standard deviation from the constant mean is improved by approximately 0.01 seconds for AB branch data. For the BC branch, standard deviations of relative travel times of ±0.06 seconds are reduced to less than ±0.05 seconds by calculating relative residuals. We conclude that changes of crustal transit time forP-waves could be resolved, based on careful PKP arrival time measurement at two or more neighboring stations if the changes exceed 0.05 sec and last for more than one year. The conditions for achieving this result are that PKP from Tonga earthquakes is clearly recorded, and that time-keeping is accurate. The data on which these conclusions are based were obtained from the Graefenberg seismograph array, which is located in West Gemany and consists of 13 stations separated by distances of 10 km to 100 km. We propose that relative arrival times of PKP from Tonga could be used in the Mediterranean - Middle East area to search for precursory travel time changes before large earthquakes.  相似文献   
13.
—?Rayleigh wave group velocity dispersion measurements from 10?s to 160?s periods have been made for paths traversing Northern Africa. Data were accumulated from the IRIS DMC, GEOSCOPE, and MEDNET seismic networks covering the years 1991–1997. The group velocity measurements are made including the effects of debiasing for instantaneous period and a single-iteration, mode-isolation (phase match) filter. The curves are grouped by tectonic province and compared to tomographic model-based curves in an effort to test and validate the tomographic models. Within each tectonic category (rift, orogenic zone, or craton) group velocity curves from various provinces are similar. Between tectonic categories, however, there are marked differences. The rift related paths exhibit the lowest group velocities observed, and cratonic paths the fastest. One-dimensional shear velocity inversions are performed, and while highly nonunique, the ranges of models show significant differences in upper mantle velocities between the tectonic provinces.¶This work is part of a larger project to determine group velocity maps for North Africa and the Middle East. The work presented here provides important tools for the validation of tomographic group velocity models. This is accomplished by comparing group velocity curves calculated from the tomographic models with carefully selected high-quality group velocity measurements. The final group velocity models will be used in M s measurements, which will contribute to the m b :M s discriminant important to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). The improved shear wave velocity models provided by this study also contribute to the detection, location, and identification of seismic sources.  相似文献   
14.
It is well known that most MHD shocks observed within 1 AU are MHD fast shocks. Only a very limited number of MHD slow shocks are observed within 1 AU. In order to understand why there are only a few MHD slow shocks observed within 1 AU, we use a one-dimensional, time-dependent MHD code with an adaptive grid to study the generation and evolution of interplanetary slow shocks (ISS) in the solar wind. Results show that a negative, nearly square-wave perturbation will generate a pair of slow shocks (a forward and a reverse slow shock). In addition, the forward and the reverse slow shocks can pass through each other without destroying their characteristics, but the propagating speeds for both shocks are decreased. A positive, square-wave perturbation will generate both slow and fast shocks. When a forward slow shock (FSS) propagates behind a forward fast shock (FFS), the former experiences a decreasing Mach number. In addition, the FSS always disappears within a distance of 150R (where R is one solar radius) from the Sun when there is a forward fast shock (with Mach number \geq1.7) propagating in front of the FSS. In all tests that we have performed, we have not discovered that the FSS (or reverse slow shock) evolves into a FFS (or reverse fast shock). Thus, we do not confirm the FSS-FFS evolution as suggested by Whang (1987).  相似文献   
15.
Increases in chlorinated and brominated halocarbons are believed to be responsible for the depletion of stratospheric ozone observed over much of the globe in the past decade or so. Ozone depletion is in turn believed to lead to a negative radiative forcing, tending to cool the stratosphere and the surface. We show that the increasing atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting halocarbons and onset of related ozone depletion likely led to a negative forcing of the climate system in the 1980s that slowed significantly the rate of change of total anthropogenic radiative forcing due to the combined effect of all greenhouse gases over that decade. Within the next decade, emissions of these halocarbons are expected to rapidly decrease, with corresponding impacts on ozone and radiative forcing. As the emissions of ozone-depleting gases are reduced and eventually phased out, the rate of ozone depletion is expected to decrease and eventually reverse. All other things being equal, we show that the change from deepening ozone depletion in the 1980s to ozone increases in the future should lead to a pronounced increase in the decadal rate of change of anthropogenic greenhouse forcing of the next few decades, perhaps to levels unprecedented in this century.  相似文献   
16.
—Whereas the coast of Peru south of 10°S is historically accustomed to tsunamigenic earthquakes, the subduction zone north of 10°S has been relatively quiet. On 21 February 1996 at 21:51 GMT (07:51 local time) a large, tsunamigenic earthquake (Harvard estimate M w = 7.5) struck at 9.6°S, 79.6°W, approximately 130 km off the northern coast of Peru, north of the intersection of the Mendaña fracture zone with the Peru–Chile trench. The likely mechanism inferred from seismic data is a low-angle thrust consistent with subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the South American plate, with relatively slow rupture characteristics. Approximately one hour after the main shock, a damaging tsunami reached the Peruvian coast, resulting in twelve deaths. We report survey measurements, from 7.7°S to 11°S, on maximum runup (2–5m, between 8 and 10°S), maximum inundation distances, which exceeded 500 m, and tsunami sediment deposition patterns. Observations and numerical simulations show that the hydrodynamic characteristics of this event resemble those of the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami. Differences in climate, vegetation and population make these two tsunamis seem more different than they were. This 1996 Chimbote event was the first large (M w >7) subduction-zone (interplate) earthquake between about 8 and 10°S, in Peru, since the 17th century, and bears resemblance to the 1960 (M w 7.6) event at 6.8°S. Together these two events are apparently the only large subduction-zone earthquakes in northern Peru since 1619 (est. latitude 8°S, est. M w 7.8); these two tsunamis also each produced more fatalities than any other tsunami in Peru since the 18th century. We concur with Pelayo and Wiens (1990, 1992) that this subduction zone, in northern Peru, resembles others where the subduction zone is only weakly coupled, and convergence is largely aseismic. Subduction-zone earthquakes, when they occur, are slow, commonly shallow, and originate far from shore (near the tip of the wedge). Thus they are weakly felt, and the ensuing tsunamis are unanticipated by local populations. Although perhaps a borderline case, the Chimbote tsunami clearly is another wake-up example of a "tsunami earthquake."  相似文献   
17.
Aircraft, radiosonde, surface-flux, and boundary-layer windprofiler data from the Cooperative Atmosphere Surface Exchange Study's 1997 field project, CASES-97, are combined with synoptic data to study the evolution of the vertically-averaged mixed-layerpotential temperature []and mixing-ratio [Q] onthree nearly-cloudless days from 1000 CST to 1200CST (local noon is approximately 1230 CST). This was achieved through examination of the terms in the time-tendency (`budget')equations for []and [Q]. We estimate three of the terms –local time rate of change, vertical flux divergence, andhorizontal advection. For the [Q]-budget, vertical flux divergence usually dominates, buthorizontal advection is significant on one of the three days. The [Q]-budget balances for two of the three days to within the large experimental error. For the -budget,vertical flux divergence accounts for most of the morningwarming, with horizontal advection of secondary importance.The residual in the -budget has the same sign for all three days, indicating that not all the heating is accounted for. We can balance the []-budgets to within experimental error on two of the three days by correcting the vertical-flux divergence for apparent low biases in the flux measurements of one of the aircraft and in the surface fluxes, and accounting for direct heating of the mixed layer by radiative flux divergence allowing for the effects of carbonaceous aerosols. The [];-budget with these corrections also balances on the third day if horizontal gradients from synoptic maps are used to estimate the horizontal advection. However, the corrected budget for this day does not balance if the horizontal gradient in the advection term is estimated using CASES-97aircraft and radiosondes; we suggest that persistent mesoscale circulations led to an overestimate of the horizontal gradient andhence horizontal advection.  相似文献   
18.
Greenhouse warming due to carbon dioxide atmospheres may be responsible for maintaining the early Earth's surface temperature above freezing and may even have allowed for liquid water on early Mars. However, the high levels of CO2 required for such warming should have also resulted in the formation of CO2 clouds. These clouds, depending on their particle size, could lead to either warming or cooling. The particle size in turn is determined by the nucleation and growth conditions. Here we present laboratory studies of the nucleation and growth of carbon dioxide on water ice under martian atmospheric conditions. We find that a critical saturation, S=1.34, is required for nucleation, corresponding to a contact parameter between solid water and solid carbon dioxide of m=0.95. We also find that after nucleation occurs, growth of CO2 is very rapid, and we report the growth rates at a number of supersaturations. Because growth would be expected to continue until the CO2 pressure is lowered to its vapor pressure, we expect particles larger than those being currently suggested for the present and past martian atmospheres. Using this information in a microphysical model described in a companion paper, we find that CO2 clouds are best described as “snow,” having a relatively small number of large particles.  相似文献   
19.
EUV97 is a solar EUV empirical model that incorporates revised soft X-ray fluxes from the SOLRAD-11 satellite (1976–1979) and uses Lα recently recalibrated to the UARS satellite (1991–present) SOLSTICE Lα. The soft X-ray data have been revised from the original flux values using Mewe's spectral fits to the data. The recalibrated AE-E and SME Lα datasets use UARS Lα for absolute flux values to provide two solar cycles of Lα irradiance extending back to 1977. Lα is used by EUV97 as a proxy for chromospheric EUV irradiances. The EUV97 empirical solar model takes its heritage from the EUV91 model based on a multiple linear regression technique that fits soft X-ray and EUV irradiances to 10.7 cm flux for transition region and coronal emissions or to Lα and Hei 10830 Ú EW for chromospheric emissions.  相似文献   
20.
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