基于不同海拔高度的雷达降水估测试验   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

范江琳  青泉  马力 《气象科学》2014,34(1):66-71

在国内外雷达定量估测区域降水量一些方法基础上,将降水类型、地理位置和海拔高度同时纳入考虑范畴,在成都CINRAD/SC雷达站(海拔高度596.5 m)200 km范围内选择实验区,并按海拔高度将所选区域分为3区。然后利用2010年7—8月的雷达体扫资料以及同时段、同时次的雨量计数据,采用最优化算法分别在每个区域内修订传统Z-I关系中的"A,b"系数,以得到不同海拔地区的Z-I关系和每小时雨量估测值。研究表明,与直接采用传统的Z-I关系定量测量降水相比,各个区域内,经改善后的Z-I关系准确率提高了20%左右,算法相对简单,适合业务使用。  相似文献   

绵阳市度日数特征及其变化趋势分析          下载免费PDF全文

廖麒翔  徐仁鹏  谢雨竹 《高原山地气象研究》2014,(1):72-76

从20世纪50年代以来,度日数一直作为气候变化与供暖关系的一个综合评价指标。基于全球变暖可能对我国供暖天数和温度产生深刻的影响,本文采用绵阳市1946~2005年共49年的日最低、最高气温资料,分析了绵阳市度日数年变化特征,并对其进行了趋势分析。结果表明:绵阳市历年供暖度日数最小值处于1998年,比1976年最大值低93.5%,10a年均供暖度日数变化趋势为二次曲线;制冷度日数波动性很大,1960~1979年在1500℃·d左右波动,1979~1990年在1400℃·d左右波动,1990年以后基本处于1500℃·d以上,10a年均制冷度日数拟合趋势曲线为三次曲线。基于Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验法,在α=0.05水平下,对绵阳市供暖和制冷度日数进行检验,研究发现:供暖度日数明显减少,1992年为突变起始年份;制冷度日数波动增长,且自1997年起突变。  相似文献   

基于探空资料因子组合分析方法的冰雹预报   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

刘晓璐  刘建西  张世林  刘平 《应用气象学报》2014,25(2):168-175

以1978—2007年四川省宜宾探空站200 km范围内共45例降雹事件与非降雹事件作为时间样本,将利用T-lnp探空资料计算表征热力、动力、水汽条件、温度、高度等物理参数作为预报因子,采用因子组合分析方法对3244个预报因子进行筛选,找出影响宜宾探空站附近降雹的预报因子,并计算得到它们的阈值及组合关系,建立了冰雹预报指标判别式。两个主要因子为400 hPa饱和湿静力温度与850 hPa湿静力温度之差 (T_σ400*-T_σ850) 和400 hPa与地面垂直气压梯度之差 (G_z400-G_zsurface),两个条件因子为700 hPa水汽压与饱和水汽压之差 (e₇₀₀-e_s700) 和700 hPa露点温度与饱和湿静力温度之差 (T_d700-T_σ700*)。将2008年全年732例时次的T-lnp探空资料代入判别式进行试报,探测率为84%,空报率为67.7%,成功指数为30.4%,试报结果表明:基于探空资料因子组合分析方法得到的冰雹预报指标判别方法可行,具有一定准确性。  相似文献   

Variations of early autumn rainfall in the lee side of the Tibetan Plateau     

Xingwen Jiang  Yueqing Li  Song Yang  Guangbi He 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,117(3-4):565-577

The variability of climate in the lee side of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) often exhibits unique features. In this study, the authors investigate the variations of early autumn rainfall in the lee side of the TP (LSTP). The rainfall amount and number of rain days in LSTP increase from August to September. The center of heavy and torrential rains during September is located in LSTP as well. These unique features are attributed to later withdrawal of the East Asian summer monsoon in the middle and higher troposphere compared to the lower troposphere and stronger South Asian summer monsoon and thermal forcing of the TP. The September rainfall in LSTP experienced strong interdecadal fluctuation, with overall below normal rainfall from mid-1980s to late 2000s, while there was no apparent long-term trend in the August and October rainfall amount. The above normal September rainfall is associated with an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific, a weaker-than-normal ridge around the Lake Baikal, a stronger-than-normal East Asian jet stream, and warmer air over the southeastern TP. The interdecadal decrease in rainfall in September may be caused by the central equatorial Pacific warming, which induces an anomalous cyclone over the western North Pacific. The September anomalous cyclone is stronger and more westward compared to that in August and October, and thus favors the below normal rainfall in LSTP.  相似文献   

电站坝基岩体评价及深层抗滑稳定性分析     

米猛 《四川地质学报》2014,(2):243-247

某水电站位于雅鲁藏布江中游桑日至加查峡谷段出口处,坝型为混凝土重力坝,最大坝高116m,属高坝。混凝土重力坝主要是依靠坝体自身重量于基础之上产生的摩擦力及坝体与基础之间的凝聚力来抵抗水压力以满足稳定要求,对基础岩体要求较高。根据该水电站坝基工程实践,从坝基岩体质量评价方法、分级标准及深层抗滑稳定计算方法等方面进行一些有益探索,对类似工程坝基岩体质量评价及深层抗滑稳定计算具有指导意义。  相似文献   

某水电站滑坡形成机制及稳定性分析     

张青宇  郑爱国  唐世明 《四川地质学报》2014,(1):101-103

该水电站滑坡变形主要表现在滑坡的前、后缘及其两侧,目前该滑坡已处于不稳定状态,因此对该滑坡的形成机制及稳定性进行分析就尤为重要。该滑坡的形成机制为蠕滑—拉裂式,稳定性的地质分析和定量计算都表明:该滑坡天然状态下处于稳定状态,持续降雨状态下处于不稳定状态。  相似文献   

基于τ-p变换的地震道重构     

谢小国 《四川地质学报》2014,(4):625-627

基于τ-p变换原理,研究一种基于τ-p变换的地震数据重构方法,运用该方法对待重构道用零道替代,通过τ-p正反变换及一定的迭代处理实现地震道数据重构。理论模型与实际资料应用表明,基于τ-p变换的地震道重构方法效果明显,重构数据稳健。  相似文献   

理塘县卡辉地区温泉形成模式分析     

韦玉婷  胡亚召 《地质灾害与环境保护》2014,(2):78-82

卡辉地区出露4处温泉群,泉点达30余处。本文从该地温泉的分布、水化学特征、热源、地热地质构造和补排条件方面,分析温泉形成模式,为区内地热资源开发利用提供地质参考。  相似文献   

The Dynamic Evaluation of Rock Slope Stability Considering the Effects of Microseismic Damage   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

N. W. Xu  F. Dai  Z. Z. Liang  Z. Zhou  C. Sha  C. A. Tang 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2014,47(2):621-642

A state-of-the-art microseismic monitoring system has been implemented at the left bank slope of the Jinping first stage hydropower station since June 2009. The main objectives are to ensure slope safety under continuous excavation at the left slope, and, very recently, the safety of the concrete arch dam. The safety of the excavated slope is investigated through the development of fast and accurate real-time event location techniques aimed at assessing the evolution and migration of the seismic activity, as well as through the development of prediction capabilities for rock slope instability. Myriads of seismic events at the slope have been recorded by the microseismic monitoring system. Regions of damaged rock mass have been identified and delineated on the basis of the tempo-spatial distribution analysis of microseismic activity during the periods of excavation and consolidation grouting. However, how to effectively utilize the abundant microseismic data in order to quantify the stability of the slope remains a challenge. In this paper, a rock mass damage evolutional model based on microseismic data is proposed, combined with a 3D finite element method (FEM) model for feedback analysis of the left bank slope stability. The model elements with microseismic damage are interrogated and the deteriorated mechanical parameters determined accordingly. The relationship between microseismic activities induced by rock mass damage during slope instability, strength degradation, and dynamic instability of the slope are explored, and the slope stability is quantitatively evaluated. The results indicate that a constitutive relation considering microseismic damage is concordant with the simulation results and the influence of rock mass damage can be allowed for its feedback analysis of 3D slope stability. In addition, the safety coefficient of the rock slope considering microseismic damage is reduced by a value of 0.11, in comparison to the virgin rock slope model. Our results demonstrate that microseismic activity induced by construction disturbance only slightly affects the stability of the slope. The proposed feedback analysis technique provides a novel method for dynamically assessing rock slope stability and can be used to assess the slope stability of other similar rock slopes.  相似文献   

Assessment of the Excavation-Damaged Zone in a Tall Rock Slope Using Acoustic Testing Method     

Jia-wen Zhou  Xing-guo Yang  Hui-ge Xing  Yu-feng Xue  Gang He 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2014,32(4):1149-1158

During slope excavation, high stresses can become concentrated in the rock mass because of stress redistribution. Failure of the rock mass creates an excavation-damaged zone (EDZ) in the slope. The damage reduces the acoustic wave velocity in the rock mass. Results of field tests measuring acoustic wave velocity at the Jinping I Hydropower Station are used here to study the EDZ in a tall rock slope. Two acoustic testing methods were adopted in the field tests: single-hole acoustic testing (SAT) and cross-hole acoustic testing (CAT). The acoustic wave velocity was lower in the EDZ, and the depth of the EDZ increased with decreasing slope elevation. Statistical analysis shows that the acoustic wave velocity obtained by the SAT method is larger than that obtained by the CAT method, and the relative difference between the SAT- and CAT-derived velocities is lower for a high quality rock mass than for a low quality rock mass. The integrity ratio and severity of damage can also be determined by acoustic wave velocity test results, revealing that the integrity ratio and elastic modulus of a rock mass are reduced in the EDZ.  相似文献