粒子滤波同化在厄尔尼诺-南方涛动目标观测中的应用     

段晚锁  封凡  侯美夷 《大气科学》2018,42(3):677-695

针对粒子滤波—目标观测方法的局限性,提出了能够克服该局限性的新目标观测方法,并将其应用于厄尔尼诺—南方涛动可预报性研究,揭示了东太平洋型厄尔尼诺事件和中太平洋型厄尔尼诺事件的目标观测敏感区。通过同化该敏感区的目标观测,显著减小了两类厄尔尼诺事件的预报不确定性,验证了新方法揭示的目标观测敏感区在改进厄尔尼诺预报技巧中具有更加重要的作用。  相似文献   

盆地城市地气温差变化特征及模拟研究——以成都市为例          下载免费PDF全文

杨巨佳  王超  肖天贵 《高原山地气象研究》2018,38(4):71-75

地气温差对大气边界层热力交换起着极为重要的作用,对局地气候、城市边界层结构和大气污染有着重要影响,因此有必要对城市下垫面地气温差进行相应研究。本文以典型盆地城市成都为例,利用2014年成都市地表温度、气温逐时观测资料分析了该地区地气温差的变化特征,讨论了中尺度数值模式WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model)对盆地城市地气温差的模拟能力。结论表明:成都市平均地气温差为2.20℃,多分布在0～2℃区间,与地表温度和气温变化不同,温差春季最大,夏、冬季次之,秋季最小;各季节温差日变化大致相似,均为中午较大,夜间在0℃左右,但极值大小不同。利用WRF对成都市典型夏季晴天地气温差进行了模拟研究,对比分析三种常用陆面过程参数化方案的模拟结果,三种方案模拟的变化趋势均与观测吻合,其中Noah方案能较好的模拟成都市地气温差的变化特征,通过参数化方案的组合方式,改进了模式对地气温差的WRF模拟能力。   相似文献   

中国西南地区地面平均相对湿度变化分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

李瀚  韩琳  贾志军 《高原山地气象研究》2016,36(4):42-47

本文利用1966~2013年中国地面气候资料月值数据集中的相对湿度数据,采用线性拟合、Mann-Kendall检验和小波分析等方法对中国西南地区的相对湿度变化特征进行了分析。结果显示西南地区年平均相对湿度值为66.44%,其中1966~2000年其值呈微弱上升态势,2000~2013年下降较快,从68%降至62%。年均相对湿度年际变化的突变检验可知在1990~2000年增长较快,在2007年发生突变;小波分析显示其存在约为3a和7a的短周期,以及约24a的长周期。月平均相对湿度的年内变化呈“单峰单谷”型,谷值57.62%出现在3月,峰值74.82%出现在9月。进入新世纪以来,年均相对湿度快速下降至62%,非常接近61.8%的人体最佳舒适程度,表明该地区居民可获得更好的舒适感,气候宜居条件变好。   相似文献   

Means,meanings, and contexts: A framework for integrating detailed ethnographic data into assessments of fishing community vulnerability     

《Marine Policy》2016

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Strengthened African summer monsoon in the mid-Piacenzian     

Ran Zhang  Zhongshi Zhang  Dabang Jiang  Qing Yan  Xin Zhou  Zhigang Cheng 《大气科学进展》2016,33(9):1061-1070

Using model results from the first phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) and four experiments with CAM4, the intensified African summer monsoon (ASM) in the mid-Piacenzian and corresponding mechanisms are analyzed. The results from PlioMIP show that the ASM intensified and summer precipitation increased in North Africa during the mid-Piacenzian, which can be explained by the increased net energy in the atmospheric column above North Africa. Further experiments with CAM4 indicated that the combined changes in the mid-Piacenzian of atmospheric CO₂ concentration and SST, as well as the vegetation change, could have substantially increased the net energy in the atmospheric column over North Africa and further intensified the ASM. The experiments also demonstrated that topography change had a weak effect. Overall, the combined changes of atmospheric CO₂ concentration and SST were the most important factor that brought about the intensified ASM in the mid-Piacenzian.  相似文献   

Characteristics and possible formation mechanisms of severe storms in the outer rainbands of Typhoon Mujiga (1522)          下载免费PDF全文

Bingyun Wang  Ming Wei  Wei Hua  Yongli Zhang  Xiaohang Wen  Jiafeng Zheng  Nan Li  Han Li  Yu Wu  Jie Zhu  Mingjun Zhang 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2017,31(3):612-624

To better understand how severe storms form and evolve in the outer rainbands of typhoons, in this study, we investigate the evolutionary characteristics and possible formation mechanisms for severe storms in the rainbands of Typhoon Mujigae, which occurred during 2–5 October 2015, based on the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data, conventional observations, and Doppler radar data. For the rainbands far from the inner core (eye and eyewall) of Mujigae (distance of approximately 70–800 km), wind speed first increased with the radius expanding from the inner core, and then decreased as the radius continued to expand. The Rankine Vortex Model was used to explore such variations in wind speed. The areas of strong stormy rainbands were mainly located in the northeast quadrant of Mujigae, and overlapped with the areas of high winds within approximately 300–550 km away from the inner core, where the strong winds were conducive to the development of strong storms. A severe convective cell in the rainbands developed into waterspout at approximately 500 km to the northeast of the inner core, when Mujigae was strengthening before it made landfall. Two severe convective cells in the rainbands developed into two tornadoes at approximately 350 km to the northeast of the inner core after Mujigae made landfall. The radar echo bands enhanced to 60 dBZ when mesocyclones occurred in the rainbands and induced tornadoes. The radar echoes gradually weakened after the mesocyclones weakened. The tops of parent clouds of the mesocyclones elevated at first, and then suddenly dropped about 20 min before the tornadoes appeared. Thereby, the cloud top variation has the potential to be used as an early warning of tornado occurrence.  相似文献   

Relationship between atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau and precipitation in the Sichuan–Chongqing region during summer          下载免费PDF全文

Xin Lai  Yuanfa Gong 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2017,31(3):555-566

NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data and a 47-yr daily precipitation dataset from a network of 42 rain gauges are used to analyze the atmospheric heat source (<Q₁>) anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its influence on the summer precipitation anomaly in the Sichuan–Chongqing region. Results show that the vertical advection of <Q₁> over the central TP is a major factor affecting summer precipitation in the Sichuan–Chongqing region. When the vertical advection of <Q₁> over the central TP is strengthened, the South Asian high shifts further than normal to the south and east, the western Pacific subtropical high shifts further than normal to the south and west, and the Indian low weakens. This benefits the transport of warm moist air from the low latitude oceans to the Sichuan–Chongqing region. Correspondingly, in the high latitudes, two ridges and one trough form, which lead to cool air moving southward. These two air masses converge over the Sichuan–Chongqing region, leading to significant precipitation. In contrast, when the vertical advection of <Q₁> over the central TP is weakened, the South Asian high moves to the north and west, the subtropical high moves eastward and northward, and the Indian low strengthens. This circulation pattern is unfavorable for warm air advection from the south to the Sichuan–Chongqing region, and the cool air further north cannot move southward because of the presence of two troughs and one ridge at high latitude. Thus, ascent over the Sichuan–Chongqing region is weakened, resulting in less precipitation.  相似文献   

Error sensitivity analysis in 10–30-day extended range forecasting by using a nonlinear cross-prediction error model          下载免费PDF全文

Zhiye Xia  Lisheng Xu  Hongbin Chen  Yongqian Wang  Jinbao Liu  Wenlan Feng 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2017,31(3):567-575

Extended range forecasting of 10–30 days, which lies between medium-term and climate prediction in terms of timescale, plays a significant role in decision-making processes for the prevention and mitigation of disastrous meteorological events. The sensitivity of initial error, model parameter error, and random error in a nonlinear crossprediction error (NCPE) model, and their stability in the prediction validity period in 10–30-day extended range forecasting, are analyzed quantitatively. The associated sensitivity of precipitable water, temperature, and geopotential height during cases of heavy rain and hurricane is also discussed. The results are summarized as follows. First, the initial error and random error interact. When the ratio of random error to initial error is small (10^–6–10^–2), minor variation in random error cannot significantly change the dynamic features of a chaotic system, and therefore random error has minimal effect on the prediction. When the ratio is in the range of 10^–1–2 (i.e., random error dominates), attention should be paid to the random error instead of only the initial error. When the ratio is around 10^–2–10^–1, both influences must be considered. Their mutual effects may bring considerable uncertainty to extended range forecasting, and de-noising is therefore necessary. Second, in terms of model parameter error, the embedding dimension m should be determined by the factual nonlinear time series. The dynamic features of a chaotic system cannot be depicted because of the incomplete structure of the attractor when m is small. When m is large, prediction indicators can vanish because of the scarcity of phase points in phase space. A method for overcoming the cut-off effect (m > 4) is proposed. Third, for heavy rains, precipitable water is more sensitive to the prediction validity period than temperature or geopotential height; however, for hurricanes, geopotential height is most sensitive, followed by precipitable water.  相似文献   

对流层臭氧影响植被研究进展:观测、参数化方案及应用     

周智敏  李芳  曾晓东  倪长健 《气候与环境研究》2017,22(5):613-622

对流层臭氧(O_3)作为最重要的大气污染物之一,对植物的形态特征和生理生化指标有着重要影响;并通过作用于陆面植被间接改变全球和区域的碳循环以及气候和环境。本文系统地回顾了对流层臭氧影响陆面植被的观测事实,主要包括其对光合作用、气孔导度、叶面积、生物量、产量等方面的影响;归纳和分析了常用的O_3暴露指数(ozone exposure index)和O_3影响植被的参数化方案的优缺点;并介绍这些参数化方案应用于生态模式和地球系统模式,模拟O_3通过作用于陆面植被对碳、水、能量通量和状态的影响。最后探讨了O_3影响植被在观测、参数化方案及其模拟应用方面亟需解决的问题以及未来发展方向。  相似文献   

基于重组降水集合预报的洪水概率预报   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

赵琳娜  刘莹  包红军  王彬雁  白雪梅  李潇濛  杨瑞雯  李依瞳 《应用气象学报》2017,28(5):544-554

采用条件亚正态模型方法,生成了具有包含不同可能性的降水集合预报。为了保持各子流域降水集合预报变量之间的空间相关性,采用集合预报重组方法对降水集合预报进行重新排列。使用重组后的降水集合预报驱动水文模型,实现了淮河上游大坡岭-息县、淮河上游息县-王家坝和汝河-洪河上游3个子流域的12次洪水过程的洪水概率预报,并对1988年9月7日和1991年7月31日两次洪水概率预报进行个例分析。结果表明:相对于单一确定性预报,通过条件亚正态分布模型生成降水集合预报后,再经过Schaake洗牌法空间相关性重新组合的降水集合预报,捕捉洪峰出现时间和流量的能力更强。对洪水概率预报来说,降水概率预报更能达到对未来的水文事件进行最大可能估计的目的,并尽可能综合了降水预报不确定性因素,同时也说明维持变量原有的空间相关特征对于降水概率预报具有重要意义。  相似文献