Impacts of the Three Gorges Reservoir on its immediate downstream hydrological drought regime during 1950–2016     

Yu  Meixiu  Liu  Xiaolong  Li  Qiongfang 《Natural Hazards》2019,96(1):413-430

Natural Hazards - Impacts of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) on the downstream hydrological extremes always draw public attentions, particularly during its (quasi) normal water storing period. To...  相似文献   

气候变化背景下玉龙雪山漾弓江流域径流变化 及其影响因素分析     

方金鑫  蒲焘  史晓宜  王世金  牛贺文 《冰川冻土》2019,41(2):268-274

利用1979-2016年金沙江支流漾弓江流域木家桥水文站流量资料和丽江市气象资料,揭示了漾弓江流域径流变化特征及其主要影响因素。研究结果表明：漾弓江流域年径流量呈先增加后减小趋势。在年代际时间尺度, 20世纪80年代、90年代以及2000-2009年,径流量呈现增加趋势,而2010-2016年径流量呈减小趋势,与2000-2009年相比, 2010-2016年径流量减少了42%（减少径流量为0.88×10⁸ m³）。气温和降水量对径流的影响均较为显著,其中,降水量对径流的影响主要体现在雨季,而气温对径流的影响主要体现在消融期。气温升高导致冰川累积负物质平衡,进而引起冰雪融水变化,漾弓江流域2000-2009年径流变化的主要原因。  相似文献   

山坡表层关键带结构与水文连通性研究进展   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

刘金涛  韩小乐  刘建立  梁忠民  贺瑞敏 《水科学进展》2019,30(1):112-122

山丘区是洪水的"策源地",山丘区坡地、沟谷及间歇性河道为洪水的形成提供了通道,同时也是水文连通时空变化最为强烈的地带。然而,对流域表层关键带结构特征及其水文连通机制等的认识尚存不足,限制了产汇流理论及模型方法的发展和应用。通过对比国内外山坡水文实验,发现山坡物理结构连通性控制并深刻影响着水流的连通过程,现有水文连通实验侧重孔隙等微观尺度的规律研究,与水文模型理论存在尺度上的巨大偏差。为此,提出水文连通性应侧重揭示水流在山坡地表、地下的宏观表象通道及分布特征,探索径流连通的动力学机制,即山坡水文连通性研究重在剖析其结构特征的水文累积效应,应保持关键带结构特征合理概化与产汇流理论适度复杂之间的平衡。  相似文献   

坡面流层流区动力学特性   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

杨苗  龚家国  赵勇  赵翠平 《水科学进展》2019,30(5):709-718

为完善坡面水流的基础理论研究,基于定床水槽试验,以甘油溶液为试验流体,采用超声波测量技术,进行了4种粗糙度、5种坡度和13种单宽流量条件下的组合试验,研究了坡面流层流区的动力学特性及滚波特征。研究结果表明:在雷诺数为8~160的范围内,流态指数在理论值0.33附近波动,且随粗糙度的增大呈现先增大后减小的变化趋势,在粗糙度为0.10 mm附近达到峰值;阻力系数受坡度和粗糙度影响显著,可较好地由坡度、粗糙度和雷诺数的关系式表示;随着雷诺数的增大,滚波波速和波峰均呈幂函数形式递增,滚波周期大小无明显变化;坡度的增大会使层流失稳临界单宽流量减小,粗糙度的增大会使临界弗劳德数的均值减小。  相似文献   

基于人工降雨试验的淮北地区产流产沙差异性研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

王振龙  杜明成  姜翠玲  王发信  王怡宁  周超 《水科学进展》2019,30(4):507-514

针对淮北地区水土流失问题,利用野外人工模拟降雨试验,分析了不同雨强(40mm/h、60mm/h和80mm/h)和坡度(5°、10°和15°)条件下砂姜黑土和黄潮土产流产沙差异。结果表明:砂姜黑土初始产流时间长,产流总量小。坡面出现细沟时,砂姜黑土初始含沙量随时间变化有减小趋势,最终趋于稳定,而黄潮土含沙量呈波动变化;60mm/h、80mm/h雨强10°坡砂姜黑土产沙总量大于黄潮土,其他情况黄潮土产沙总量大于砂姜黑土,黄潮土土壤侵蚀严重。砂姜黑土表面细沟发育密度大,主要在坡面中下部,为相互连通的树枝状结构,而黄潮土表面细沟发育密度小,形成沟壑。两种土壤产流总量、产沙总量与坡度、雨强分别呈多元线性函数、多元幂函数关系,雨强对坡面产流产沙总量的影响大于坡度。  相似文献   

Tidal truncation and barotropic convergence in a channel network tidally driven from opposing entrances     

《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2003,56(3-4):629-639

Residual circulation patterns in a channel network that is tidally driven from entrances on opposite sides are controlled by the temporal phasing and spatial asymmetry of the two forcing tides. The Napa/Sonoma Marsh Complex in San Francisco Bay, CA, is such a system. A sill on the west entrance to the system prevents a complete tidal range at spring tides that results in tidal truncation of water levels. Tidal truncation does not occur on the east side but asymmetries develop due to friction and off-channel wetland storage. The east and west asymmetric tides meet in the middle to produce a barotropic convergence zone that controls the transport of water and sediment. During spring tides, tidally averaged water-surface elevations are higher on the truncated west side. This creates tidally averaged fluxes of water and sediment to the east. During neap tides, the water levels are not truncated and the propagation speed of the tides controls residual circulation, creating a tidally averaged flux in the opposite direction.  相似文献   

Impact of fractional probability distributions on statistics of hydraulic conductivity,dynamics of groundwater flow and solute transport at a low-permeability site     

Chengpeng Lu  Wei Qin  Ching-Sheng Huang  Yong Zhang  Tema Koketso Ealotswe 《水文研究》2020,34(21):4112-4127

The fractional Brownian motion (fBm) and fractional Lévy motion (fLm) can easily describe the geometry and the statistical structure of hydraulic conductivity (K) for real-world. However, the fBm and fLm models have not been systematically evaluated when building the K field for a low-permeability site. In this study, both the fBm and fLm are used to simulate the low-K field at NingCheGu (NCG), Tianjin, China. Groundwater flow and solute transport are then computed using MODFLOW and MT3DMS, respectively, and the influence of the fBm/fLm models for K on groundwater flow and solute transport is discussed. Results show that the fLm fits better the statistics of the low-K medium than fBm, and the random logarithmic K (LnK) field generated by fLm is more stable because the resultant LnK field captures more of the measured properties at the field site than that generated by fBm. In contrast, the LnK generated by fBm is more likely to form both high-K channels and low-K barriers. The fBm therefore predicts more extreme behaviours in flow and transport, including the preferential flow, low-concentration blocks and solute retention. The overall groundwater renewal period and solute travel time for the fLm simulation are slightly shorter than those for fBm. The impacts of the fLm and fBm models on the statistics of the resultant LnK fields and the dynamics of groundwater flow and solute transport revealed by this study shed light on the selection and evaluation of the fractional probability distribution models in capturing the K fields for low-K media.  相似文献   

An optimized baseflow separation method for assessment of seasonal and spatial variability of baseflow and the driving factors     

SUN Jiaqi  WANG Xiaojun  Shamsuddin SHAHID  LI Hongyan 《地理学报(英文版)》2021,31(12):1873-1894

Baseflow is an important component of river or streamflow. It plays a vital role in water utilization and management. An improved Eckhardt recursive digital filter(IERDF) is proposed in this study. The key filter parameter and maximum baseflow index(BFImax) were estimated using the minimum smoothing method to improve baseflow estimation accuracy. The generally considered BFImax of 0.80, 0.50 and 0.25 according to the drainage basin's predominant geological characteristics often leads to significant errors in the regions that have complex subsurface and hydrologic conditions. The IERDF improved baseflow estimation accuracy by avoiding arbitrary parameter values. The proposed method was applied for baseflow separation in the upstream of Yitong River, a tributary of the Second Songhua River, and its performance was evaluated by comparing the results obtained using isotope-tracer data. The performance of IERDF was also compared with nine baseflow separation techniques belonging to filter, BFI and HYSEP methods. The IERDF was also applied for baseflow separation and calculation of rainfall infiltration recharge coefficient at different locations along the Second Songhua River's mainstream for the period 2000–2016. The results showed that the minimum smoothing method significantly improved BFImax estimation accuracy. The baseflow process line obtained using IEDRF method was consistent with that obtained using isotope 18 O. The IERDF estimated baseflow also showed stability and reliability when applied in the mainstream of the Second Songhua River. The BFI alone in the river showed an increase from the upstream to the downstream. The proportion of baseflow to total flow showed a decrease with time. The intra-annual variability of BFI was different at different locations of the river due to varying climatic conditions and subsurface characteristics. The highest BFI was observed at the middle reaches of the river in summer due to a water surplus from power generation. The research provided valuable information on baseflow characteristics and runoff mode determination, which can be used for water resources assessment and optimization of economic activity distribution in the region.  相似文献   

Predicting demand for 311 non-emergency municipal services: An adaptive space-time kernel approach     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2017

Many cities in the United States and Canada offer a 311 helpline to their residents for submitting requests for non-emergency municipal services. By dialing 311, urban residents can report a range of public issues that require governmental attention, including potholes, graffito, sanitation complaints, and tree debris. The demand for these municipal services fluctuates greatly with time and location, which poses multiple challenges to effective deployment of limited resources. To address these challenges, this study uses a locally adaptive space-time kernel approach to model 311 requests as an inhomogeneous Poisson process and presents an analytical framework to generate predictions of 311 demand in space and time. The predictions can be used to optimally allocate resources and staff, reduce response time, and allow long-term dynamic planning. We use a bivariate spatial kernel to identify the spatial structure and weigh each kernel by corresponding past observations to capture the temporal dynamics. Short-term serial dependency and weekly temporality are modeled through the temporal weights, which are adaptive to local community areas. We also transform the computation-intensive parameter estimation procedure to a low dimensional optimization problem by fitting to the autocorrelation function of historical requests. The presented method is demonstrated and validated with sanitation service requests in Chicago. The results indicate that it performs better than common industry practice and conventional spatial models with a comparable computational cost.  相似文献   

Evaluation of global climate model on performances of precipitation simulation and prediction in the Huaihe River basin     

Yenan?Wu  Ping-an?ZhongEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Bin?Xu  Feilin?Zhu  Jisi?Fu 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,133(1-2):191-204

Using climate models with high performance to predict the future climate changes can increase the reliability of results. In this paper, six kinds of global climate models that selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Path (RCP) 4.5 scenarios were compared to the measured data during baseline period (1960–2000) and evaluate the simulation performance on precipitation. Since the results of single climate models are often biased and highly uncertain, we examine the back propagation (BP) neural network and arithmetic mean method in assembling the precipitation of multi models. The delta method was used to calibrate the result of single model and multimodel ensembles by arithmetic mean method (MME-AM) during the validation period (2001–2010) and the predicting period (2011–2100). We then use the single models and multimodel ensembles to predict the future precipitation process and spatial distribution. The result shows that BNU-ESM model has the highest simulation effect among all the single models. The multimodel assembled by BP neural network (MME-BP) has a good simulation performance on the annual average precipitation process and the deterministic coefficient during the validation period is 0.814. The simulation capability on spatial distribution of precipitation is: calibrated MME-AM > MME-BP > calibrated BNU-ESM. The future precipitation predicted by all models tends to increase as the time period increases. The order of average increase amplitude of each season is: winter > spring > summer > autumn. These findings can provide useful information for decision makers to make climate-related disaster mitigation plans.  相似文献