经验方法研究下垫面变化对洪水的影响   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

李致家  周赛  姚玉梅  戴健男  张建中  胡春岐  姚成 《湖泊科学》2012,24(4):637-642

1980s以来,人类活动对下垫面的影响加剧,研究下垫面变化对流域产汇流规律的影响具有重要意义.通过对海河流域中紫荆关、阜平两个流域分别用经验方法进行洪水模拟演算,并把洪水资料按照年代不同分时段,建立P+Pa～Rs相关关系图,分析流域下垫面变化对降雨径流相关关系的影响.建立产流量R与洪峰Qm之间的相关关系,通过统计比较不同年代的趋势线发现,在产流量相同情况下,1980s后的洪峰流量较1980s前有所减少,说明海河流域的调蓄作用有增强的趋势.同时建立流域下垫面条件改变后产流量与洪峰变化幅度的相关关系,发现流域产流量变化与洪峰变化呈正相关关系.  相似文献   

莱州湾夏季环流垂向结构及其影响机制的研究     

林道荣  吴文凡  刘子洲  殷冰冰  张利  张乃鹏  孙超  袁鹏杰  翟方国 《海洋科学》2023,47(5):54-65

完善莱州湾三维环流结构,对进一步认识莱州湾海域的物质输运和生态环境保护具有重要科学意义,但前人对于莱州湾环流三维结构的研究相对较少。本文基于一套高分辨率的海洋数值模式,从三维角度研究了莱州湾夏季8月份环流的气候态特征及其影响机制。数值研究表明,莱州湾夏季环流垂向结构呈现双层环流特征,其中在跨等深线方向,环流的双层结构环流特征比较显著且存在显著的密度锋面结构。动量诊断的结果进一步表明,这种双层结构环流的形成与底层密度锋面所导致的斜压梯度力密切相关。此外,通过量化温盐场对于密度锋面的贡献,本文证实了温度梯度是莱州湾顶的密度锋面的主要影响因素,其对斜压梯度力的贡献占比达到99%,而盐度梯度对于莱州湾中部区域的密度锋面十分重要,对斜压梯度力的贡献占比达到58%,这与夏季黄河所带来的淡水通量密切相关。  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal suspended sediment fingerprinting under different land management practices     

Maziar Mohammadi  Abdulvahed Khaledi Darvishan  Nader Bahramifar  Seyed Jalil Alavi 《国际泥沙研究》2023,38(4):481-493

Understanding spatio-temporal suspended sediment dynamics is more important in large watersheds due to the decisive role of local source apportionment in sediment transport and yield. The Talar River with a large mountainous watershed in northern Iran, which plays a vital role in water supply for agriculture and drinking, recently has faced quality degradation. The current study explores the relative contribution of suspended sediment sources using geochemical tracers and fingerprinting techniqu...  相似文献   

Pattern of spatial variability in granulometric and mineralogical characteristics across an ecologically sensitive sub-tropical wetland (Bihar,India)     

Alvia Aslam  Rajesh Kumar Ranjan  Avinash Dass 《国际泥沙研究》2023,38(4):516-529

Floodplain wetlands are dynamic systems undergoing frequent hydro-sedimentological changes. Tropical/subtropical wetlands have even more pronounced climatic and biological influences on the sediment dynamics. In the current study, a protected subtropical wetland in Bihar(India) has been assessed for its sedimentary and mineralogical status. Sediment characteristics and associated granulometric parameters are discussed to highlight the wetland’s hydrogeomorphic character, energy dimension, and th...  相似文献   

Rapid magnetic susceptibility measurement as a tracer to assess the erosion–deposition process using tillage homogenization and simple proportional models: A case study in northern of Morocco     

《国际泥沙研究》2023,38(5):739-753

Soil erosion is a significant threat in the Rif region in northern Morocco. Hence, accurate cartography of the phenomenon, magnitude, and extent of erosion in the area needs a simple, rapid, and economical method such as magnetic susceptibility (MS). The current study aims to: (i) determine the factors influencing the variation of soil MS, (ii) exploit MS to estimate soil loss using two approaches in different homogenous units characterized by the same climatic conditions with different edaphic characteristics (land use, slope, and lithology), and (iii) highlight the potential for using MS as a cheap and rapid tracer of a long term erosion and deposition processes. Mass-specific magnetic susceptibility at low (χ_lf) and high (χ_hf) frequencies were measured for 182 soil samples collected in the study area. A tillage homogenization (T-H) model and a simple proportional model (SPM) were applied on an undisturbed soil profile to predict the eroded soil depths for given cores. The results confirm that χ_lf is influenced by land use, slope, and soil type. Pedogenesis is the main factor affecting soil MS enhancement, indicated by homogenous magnetic mineralogy with a dominance of super-paramagnetic (SP) and stable single domain (SSD) magnetic grains. The study results show that higher soil losses have occurred in almost all the soil samples when applying the T-H model compared to application of the SPM. The SPM underestimates erosion due to its ignorance of the MS of the plow layers after erosion. The current study implies the high efficacy of magnetic susceptibility as the quick, easily measurable, simple, and cost-effective approach that can be used as an alternative technique for evaluating soil redistribution.  相似文献   

A new concept to forecast the process of suspended sediment accumulation in the bottom sediment of small reservoirs     

《国际泥沙研究》2023,38(4):556-565

The new concept presented for forecasting the rate of accumulation of suspended sediment in reservoir water in the bottom sediment allows reasonable estimates of the siltation process globally, regionally, or locally, to be obtained without the need for costly research. The method draws on three key parameters, i.e., the concentration of suspended sediments (SS), and its organic matter (OM_SS) content, as well as the storage capacity (V_R) (i.e., the water storage in the reservoir). All of these parameters easy to determine, with information on them, in fact, made widely available by most agencies managing reservoirs in different parts of the world. In practice, the proposed method can represent a missing link in the precise determination of a reservoirs rate of siltation (and hence, losses of storage capacity).  相似文献   

20世纪80和90年代华北干旱特征及成因分析   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：5  

荣艳淑  余锦华  段丽瑶 《高原气象》2007,26(2):319-325

在全球气候变暖背景下,20世纪80年代和90年代几乎有一半的年份出现干旱,90年代华北的干旱频率比80年代更高。本文从干旱基本状况、干旱强度和干旱空间分布出发,对华北地区这两个年代的干旱进行了比较,并从对全球气候变暖的响应和大气环流场特征等方面,探讨了这两个年代干旱的成因。研究表明,在干旱强度和空间分布上,90年代明显强于80年代。对全球气候变暖的响应90年代明显强于80年代,表现了更显著的增暖趋势。80年代的干旱年中北极涛动显著增强,中高纬度地区为气压正距平带控制;90年代的干旱年中北半球中高纬度地区为正负距平波列相间分布,存在EU和PNA遥相关型。本文还定义了西伯利亚高压指数,该指数90年代显著高于80年代,且与华北地区降水显著相关,可以作为华北地区旱涝预测的指标。  相似文献   

应用新安江-海河模型研究下垫面变化对设计洪水的影响   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

钟栗  姚成  李致家  黄鹏年 《湖泊科学》2015,27(5):975-982

为了探明流域产汇流参数变化特征及其演变机理,分析流域下垫面条件变化对设计洪水的影响.通过新安江海河模型研究卫河流域代表区下垫面变化情况,采用综合线性权重法对元村集站设计洪水资料系列进行一致性修正.结果表明:自由水蓄水容量、河网水流退水系数、地表填洼蓄水能力和地下水库出流初始水深这4个参数在1980年后都变大,可见代表区下垫面1980年前、后发生了明显的变化,导致流域内径流量大幅减少;合河—新村—五陵区间在1980年前15场洪水和1980年后32场洪水的预报径流深合格率都超过80%,达到乙等精度;元村集站最大5日洪量修正后比修正前平均减小27.1%;最大15日洪量修正后比修正前平均减小25.4%;最大30日洪量修正后比修正前平均减小23.0%.本研究可为水利工程的建设规模的确定提供科学依据,保障地区的防洪安全,满足人民生活和生产用水需求.  相似文献   

Comparison of parameter uncertainty analysis techniques for a TOPMODEL application     

Binquan?LiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Zhongmin?Liang  Yingqing?He  Lin?Hu  Weimin?Zhao  Kumud?Acharya 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(5):1045-1059

Parameter uncertainty in hydrologic modeling is crucial to the flood simulation and forecasting. The Bayesian approach allows one to estimate parameters according to prior expert knowledge as well as observational data about model parameter values. This study assesses the performance of two popular uncertainty analysis (UA) techniques, i.e., generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Bayesian method implemented with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, in evaluating model parameter uncertainty in flood simulations. These two methods were applied to the semi-distributed Topographic hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) that includes five parameters. A case study was carried out for a small humid catchment in the southeastern China. The performance assessment of the GLUE and Bayesian methods were conducted with advanced tools suited for probabilistic simulations of continuous variables such as streamflow. Graphical tools and scalar metrics were used to test several attributes of the simulation quality of selected flood events: deterministic accuracy and the accuracy of 95 % prediction probability uncertainty band (95PPU). Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify sensitive parameters that largely affect the model output results. Subsequently, the GLUE and Bayesian methods were used to analyze the uncertainty of sensitive parameters and further to produce their posterior distributions. Based on their posterior parameter samples, TOPMODEL’s simulations and the corresponding UA results were conducted. Results show that the form of exponential decline in conductivity and the overland flow routing velocity were sensitive parameters in TOPMODEL in our case. Small changes in these two parameters would lead to large differences in flood simulation results. Results also suggest that, for both UA techniques, most of streamflow observations were bracketed by 95PPU with the containing ratio value larger than 80 %. In comparison, GLUE gave narrower prediction uncertainty bands than the Bayesian method. It was found that the mode estimates of parameter posterior distributions are suitable to result in better performance of deterministic outputs than the 50 % percentiles for both the GLUE and Bayesian analyses. In addition, the simulation results calibrated with Rosenbrock optimization algorithm show a better agreement with the observations than the UA’s 50 % percentiles but slightly worse than the hydrographs from the mode estimates. The results clearly emphasize the importance of using model uncertainty diagnostic approaches in flood simulations.  相似文献   

Statistical downscaling of reference evapotranspiration in Haihe River Basin: applicability assessment and application to future projection     

Wanqiu Xing  Quanxi Shao  John Taylor  Yimin Ding  Jianyu Fu 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(1):15-27

Future changes in reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) are of increasing importance in assessing the potential impacts on hydrology and water resources systems of more pronounced climate change. This study assesses the applicability of the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in projecting ET₀, and investigates the seasonal and spatial patterns of future ET₀ based on general circulation models (GCMs) across the Haihe River Basin. The results indicate that SDSM can downscale ET₀ well in term of different basin-averaged measures for the HadCM3 and CGCM3 GCMs. HadCM3 has a much superior capability in capturing inter-annual variability compared to CGCM3 and thus is chosen as the sole model to assess the changes in future ET₀. There are three homogeneous sub-regions of the Haihe River Basin: Northwest, Northeast and Southeast. Change points are detected at around 2050 and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. The Northwest is revealed to have a slight to strong increase in ET₀, while the Northeast and the Southeast tend to experience a pattern change from decrease to increase in ET₀.