Enhanced residual mean circulation during the evolution of split type sudden stratospheric warming in observations and model simulations     

Sourabh Bal  Semjon Schimanke  Thomas Spangehl  Ulrich Cubasch 《Journal of Earth System Science》2018,127(5):68

Residual mean circulation changes during the evolution of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) are investigated by composite analyses of 76 major warming events identified in a present day simulation performed with a coupled ocean–troposphere–stratosphere model from 299 winters. Their dynamical signatures are compared with the 17 SSW events identified from 35 years of Era-Interim data. The main difference is that, relative frequency of simulated SSW events is smaller than that obtained from reanalysis. SSW events are classified as displacement or split events based on the geopotential field values at 10 hPa. The geopotential field values identify 10 and 3 split events in simulation and observation respectively. The model quite accurately simulates some of the dynamical features associated with the major SSW. Residual mean circulation induced by EP-flux divergence, sum of advection and residual forcing are stronger in split events than in displacement type SSW has been confirmed by both simulation and observation. Moreover, the contribution of EP-flux divergence or planetary wave forcing is larger than the contribution of other types of forcing.  相似文献   

Variations of trace gases over the Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon     

I A Girach  Narendra Ojha  Prabha R Nair  Yogesh K Tiwari  K Ravi Kumar 《Journal of Earth System Science》2018,127(1):15

In situ measurements of near-surface ozone (\(\hbox {O}_{3})\), carbon monoxide (CO), and methane (\(\hbox {CH}_{4})\) were carried out over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) as a part of the Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ) campaign during the summer monsoon season of 2009. \(\hbox {O}_{3}\), CO and \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) mixing ratios varied in the ranges of 8–54 ppbv, 50–200 ppbv and 1.57–2.15 ppmv, respectively during 16 July–17 August 2009. The spatial distribution of mean tropospheric \(\hbox {O}_{3}\) from satellite retrievals is found to be similar to that in surface \(\hbox {O}_{3}\) observations, with higher levels over coastal and northern BoB as compared to central BoB. The comparison of in situ measurements with the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate (MACC) global reanalysis shows that MACC simulations reproduce the observations with small mean biases of 1.6 ppbv, –2.6 ppbv and 0.07 ppmv for \(\hbox {O}_{3}\), CO and \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\), respectively. The analysis of diurnal variation of \(\hbox {O}_{3}\) based on observations and the simulations from Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) at a stationary point over the BoB did not show a net photochemical build up during daytime. Satellite retrievals show limitations in capturing \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) variations as measured by in situ sample analysis highlighting the need of more shipborne in situ measurements of trace gases over this region during monsoon.  相似文献   

Application of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for flood risk assessment: a case study in Malda district of West Bengal,India     

Abhishek Ghosh  Shyamal Kumar Kar 《Natural Hazards》2018,90(1):349-364

A field experiment was conducted from 2 May 2010 to 1 May 2012 in the Gurbantunggut Desert, the second largest desert in China, to investigate saltation activity and its threshold velocity, and their relations with atmospheric and soil conditions. The results showed that saltation activity occurred more frequently during 08:00–20:00 Local Standard Time in spring and summer, with air temperatures between 20.0 and 29.0 °C, water vapor pressures between 0.6 and 0.9 kPa, soil temperatures between 25.0 and 30.0 °C, and a soil moisture lower than 0.04 m³/m³. At 2 m height, the saltation threshold velocity varied between 11.1 and 13.9 m/s, with a mean of 12.5 m/s. Threshold velocity showed clear seasonal variations in the following sequence: spring (11.7 m/s) < autumn (12.7 m/s) < summer (13.6 m/s). Affected by soil conditions, aeolian sand transport was weak, with an average annual aeolian sand that transported across a section (1.0 m × 2.0 m) of less than 6.0 kg.  相似文献   

基于Hyperion高光谱数据和随机森林方法的岩性分类与分析     

柯元楚  史忠奎  李培军  张西雅 《岩石学报》2018,34(7):2181-2188

探索利用高光谱数据的岩性填图新方法是遥感地质应用领域的重要需求之一。本文运用随机森林方法和EO-1Hyperion高光谱数据,对新疆塔里木西北部柯坪地区的局部区域进行岩性分类,并对相关问题进行分析。分别利用光谱特征以及加入光谱一阶导数特征进行岩性分类,并对不同特征对岩性分类的重要性进行分析,同时与现有的基于光谱角制图方法(SAM)进行比较。结果表明,与SAM方法相比,随机森林方法得到了更高精度的岩性分类结果,是一种有效可行的岩性分类方法。根据特征重要性的排序,蓝绿光波段、短波红外波段以及相应的一阶导数特征对研究区Hyperion数据的沉积岩岩性分类贡献更大。  相似文献   

概率密度分布法在“一带一路”地区极端月气温评估和预估中的应用     

齐亚杰  严中伟  钱诚 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(2):151-161

“一带一路”地区人口众多,气候类型复杂,亟待加强区域气候变化风险的认识。文中将该区分成10个区域,基于第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中的31个全球模式模拟结果,应用概率密度分布（PDF）方法评估历史阶段（1986—2005年）各模式模拟暖月和冷月气温的能力,挑选并建立较优模式集合,用以预估21世纪中叶（2041—2060年）和21世纪末（2081—2100年）的极端月气温。结果表明,模式对观测中冷月气温距平PDF的模拟水平整体较暖月高。与多模式平均以及中位值相比,较优模式集合方法更适于极端暖/冷月气温的评估。在中等排放RCP4.5情景下,与低纬度地区相比,较优模式模拟中高纬地区未来极端暖/冷月气温的增温幅度的不确定性范围较大。21世纪中叶和21世纪末较优模式模拟的极端暖月气温在地中海增幅整体最大,东南亚增幅整体最小。对较优模式集合预估的极端冷月气温而言,无论是21世纪中叶还是世纪末,北欧增幅整体最大,东南亚增幅整体最小。  相似文献   

The Key Supply Source of Long-Distance Moisture Transport for the Extreme Rainfall Event on July 21, 2012 in Beijing     

李娟  徐祥德  李跃清  赵天良  吴翀 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(1):34-47

In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and meteorological observation data were used to research the long-distance moisture transport supply source of the extreme rainfall event that occurred on July 21, 2012 in Beijing. Recording a maximum rainfall amount of 460 mm in 24 h, this rainstorm event had two dominant moisture transport channels. In the early stage of the rainstorm, the first channel comprised southwesterly monsoonal moisture from the Bay of Bengal (BOB) that was directly transported to north China along the eastern edge of Tibetan Plateau (TP) by orographic uplift. During the rainstorm, the southwesterly moisture transport was weakened by the transfer of Typhoon Vicente. Moreover, the southeasterly moisture transport between the typhoon and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) became another dominant moisture transport channel. The moisture in the lower troposphere was mainly associated with the southeasterly moisture transport from the South China Sea and the East China Sea, and the moisture in the middle troposphere was mainly transported from the BOB and Indian Ocean. The control experiment well reproduced the distribution and intensity of rainfall and moisture transport. By comparing the control and three sensitivity experiments, we found that the moisture transported from Typhoon Vicente and a tropical cyclone in the BOB both significantly affected this extreme rainfall event. After Typhoon Vicente was removed in a sensitivity experiment, the maximum 24-h accumulated rainfall in north China was reduced by approximately 50% compared with that of the control experiment, while the rainfall after removing the tropical cyclone was reduced by 30%. When both the typhoon and tropical cyclone were removed, the southwesterly moisture transport was enhanced. Moreover, the sensitivity experiment of removing Typhoon Vicente also weakened the tropical cyclone in the BOB. Thus, the moisture pump driven by Typhoon Vicente played an important role in maintaining and strengthening the tropical cyclone in the BOB through its westerly airflow. Typhoon Vicente was not only the moisture transfer source for the southwesterly monsoonal moisture but also affected the tropical cyclone in the BOB, which was a key supply source of long-distance moisture transport for the extreme rainfall event on July 21, 2012 in Beijing.  相似文献   

Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on the Predictability of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Intensity     

钟权加  李建平  李舒文  王羱  丁瑞强  张立凤 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(4):355-367

The role of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the development and predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is examined using a large set of idealized numerical experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that the onset time of rapid intensification of TC gradually decreases, and the peak intensity of TC gradually increases, with the increased magnitude of SST. The predictability limits of the maximum 10 m wind speed (MWS) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) are ~72 and ~84 hours, respectively. Comparisons of the analyses of variance for different simulation time confirm that the MWS and MSLP have strong signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) from 0-72 hours and a marked decrease beyond 72 hours. For the horizontal and vertical structures of wind speed, noticeable decreases in the magnitude of SNR can be seen as the simulation time increases, similar to that of the SLP or perturbation pressure. These results indicate that the SST as an external forcing signal plays an important role in TC intensity for up to 72 hours, and it is significantly weakened if the simulation time exceeds the predictability limits of TC intensity.  相似文献   

Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models     

钟水新  庄妍  胡胜  陈子通  丁伟钰  冯业荣  邓涛  刘显通  张艳霞  徐道生  戴光丰  蒙伟光 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(4):406-417

In the present study, the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were investigated. The impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further discussed. The results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over Henan. The maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan Province. The 24-h and 48-h Threat Score (TS) of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and 0.64. The comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score (FSS) verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and 0.87. The water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7 · 20. The north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye (Cempaka) over south China. The IVT over the lower troposphere (<500 hPa) showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level, especially in the planetary boundary layer (<700 hPa). More practical technical needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall, as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.  相似文献   

Assimilation of Polarimetric Radar Data Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for the Analysis and Forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar     

黎慧琦  刘显通  肖辉  万齐林 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(2):94-108

This study explores the potential for directly assimilating polarimetric radar data (including reflectivity Z and differential reflectivity ZDR) using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to improve analysis and forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar (2018). Ewiniar weakened but brought about heavy rainfall over Guangdong, China after its final landfall. Two experiments are performed, one assimilating only Z and the other assimilating both Z and ZDR. Assimilation of ZDR together with Z effectively modifies hydrometeor fields, and improves the intensity, shape and position of rainbands. Forecast of 24-hour extraordinary rainfall ≥250 mm is significantly improved. Improvement can also be seen in the wind fields because of cross-variable covariance. The current study shows the possibility of applying polarimetric radar data to improve forecasting of tropical cyclones, which deserves more researches in the future.  相似文献   

复杂地形地区月平均气温(混合)地理加权回归克里格插值   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

聂磊  舒红  刘艳 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2018,43(10):1553-1559

以地形地貌特征复杂、观测站点分布稀疏不均匀的四川省为研究区,引入地形因子（坡度和坡向）和植被指数,采用顾及空间关系非平稳性的（混合）地理加权回归克里格模型（（mixed）geographically weighted regression Kriging,（m）GWRK）进行月尺度平均气温插值方法及精度分析研究。针对不同季节和不同地区,将（m）GWRK插值结果与基于全局回归的回归克里格（regression Kriging,RK）插值结果进行对比。结果表明,RK、GWRK、mGWRK回归关系的决定系数R2分别为0.795、0.922、0.911,均方根误差分别为0.83℃、0.64℃、0.55℃,表明GWRK、mGWRK对目标变量的解释能力以及插值精度都优于RK;GWRK、mGWRK相对于RK对月平均气温插值的改进具有季节与地区差异,冬半年的改进大于夏半年,在地形地貌变化大的地区改进大于地形地貌变化小的地区。  相似文献