Modelling the variability of midlatitude storm activity on decadal to century time scales   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Irene Fischer-Bruns  H. von Storch  J. F. González-Rouco  E. Zorita 《Climate Dynamics》2005,25(5):461-476

The output of several multi-century simulations with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model is examined with respect to the variability of global storm activity in winter on time scales of decades and longer. The frequency of maximum wind speed events within a grid box, using the lower limits on the Beaufort wind speed scale of 8 and 10 Bft as thresholds, is taken as the characteristic parameter. Two historical climate runs with time-dependent forcing of the last five centuries, one control simulation, and three climate change experiments are considered. The storm frequency shows no trend until recently. Global maps for the industrially influenced period hardly differ from pre-industrial maps, even though significant temperature anomalies temporarily emerge in the historical runs. Two indicators describing the frequency and the regional shift of storm activity are determined. In historical times they are decoupled from temperature. Variations in solar and volcanic forcing in the historical simulations as well as in greenhouse gas concentrations for the industrially influenced period are not related to variations in storm activity. Also, anomalous temperature regimes like the Late Maunder Minimum are not associated with systematic storm conditions. In the climate change experiments, a poleward shift of storm activity is found in all three storm track regions. Over the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, storm activity increases, while it decreases over the Pacific Ocean. In contrast to the historical runs, and with the exception of the North Pacific storm frequency index, the storm indices parallel the development of temperature, exceeding the 2 σ-range of pre-industrial variations in the early twenty-first century.  相似文献   

Global high resolution versus Limited Area Model climate change projections over Europe: quantifying confidence level from PRUDENCE results     

M. Déqué  R. G. Jones  M. Wild  F. Giorgi  J. H. Christensen  D. C. Hassell  P. L. Vidale  B. Rockel  D. Jacob  E. Kjellström  M. de. Castro  F. Kucharski  B. van den Hurk 《Climate Dynamics》2005,25(6):653-670

Four high resolution atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre sea surface temperature and sea-ice extent. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071–2100 and the 1961–1990 means is compared with the same diagnostic obtained with nine Regional Climate Models (RCM) all driven by the Hadley Centre atmospheric GCM. The seasonal mean response for 2m temperature and precipitation is investigated. For temperature, GCMs and RCMs behave similarly, except that GCMs exhibit a larger spread. However, during summer, the spread of the RCMs—in particular in terms of precipitation—is larger than that of the GCMs. This indicates that the European summer climate is strongly controlled by parameterized physics and/or high-resolution processes. The temperature response is larger than the systematic error. The situation is different for precipitation. The model bias is twice as large as the climate response. The confidence in PRUDENCE results comes from the fact that the models have a similar response to the IPCC-SRES A2 forcing, whereas their systematic errors are more spread. In addition, GCM precipitation response is slightly but significantly different from that of the RCMs.  相似文献   

Transient Behaviour of Tropospheric Ozone Precursors in a Global 3-D CTM and Their Indirect Greenhouse Effects     

R. G. Derwent  W. J. Collins  C. E. Johnson  D. S. Stevenson 《Climatic change》2001,49(4):463-487

The global three-dimensional Lagrangian chemistry-transport model STOCHEM has been used to follow the changes in the tropospheric distributions of the two major radiatively-active trace gases, methane and tropospheric ozone, following the emission of pulses of the short-lived tropospheric ozone precursor species, methane, carbon monoxide, NO_x and hydrogen. The radiative impacts of NO_x emissionswere dependent on the location chosen for the emission pulse, whether at the surface or in the upper troposphere or whether in the northern or southern hemispheres. Global warming potentials were derived for each of the short-lived tropospheric ozone precursor species by integrating the methane and tropospheric ozone responses over a 100 year time horizon. Indirect radiative forcing due to methane and tropospheric ozone changes appear to be significant for all of the tropospheric ozone precursor species studied. Whereas the radiative forcing from methane changes is likely to be dominated by methane emissions, that from tropospheric ozone changes is controlled by all the tropospheric ozone precursor gases, particularly NO_xemissions. The indirect radiative forcing impacts of tropospheric ozone changes may be large enough such that ozone precursors should be considered in the basket of trace gases through which policy-makers aim to combat global climate change.  相似文献   

Multivariate ENSO index and Indian monsoon rainfall: relationships on monthly and subdivisional scales     

O. P. Singh 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2001,78(1-2):1-9

Summary El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to cause world-wide weather anomalies. It influences the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) also. But due to large spatial and temporal variability of monsoon rains, it becomes difficult to state any single uniform relationship between the ENSO and IMR that holds good over different subdivisions of India, though the general type of relationship between all India monsoon rainfall and ENSO is known since long. The selection of the most suitable ENSO index to correlate with the IMR is another problem. The purpose of the present study is twofold, namely, to examine the relationship between the ENSO and IMR for entire monsoon season by using an ENSO index which represents the ENSO phenomenon in a comprehensive way, namely, the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and to establish the relationships between MEI and IMR for every meteorological subdivision of India for each monsoon month; i.e. June, July, August and September. A comparison of MEI/IMR correlations has been made with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)/IMR correlations. The result may find applications in the long range forecasting of IMR on monthly and subdivisional scales, especially over the high monsoon rainfall variability regions of Northwestern and the Peninsular India. Received October 27, 2000  相似文献   

A comprehensive model inter-comparison study investigating the water budget during the BALTEX-PIDCAP period   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

D. Jacob  B. J. J. M. Van den Hurk  U. Andræ  G. Elgered  C. Fortelius  L. P. Graham  S. D. Jackson  U. Karstens  Chr. Köpken  R. Lindau  R. Podzun  B. Rockel  F. Rubel  B. H. Sass  R. N. B. Smith  X. Yang 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2001,77(1-4):19-43

Summary A comparison of 8 regional atmospheric model systems was carried out for a three-month late summer/early autumn period in 1995 over the Baltic Sea and its catchment area. All models were configured on a common grid using similar surface and lateral boundary conditions, and ran in either data assimilation mode (short term forecasts plus data assimilation), forecast mode (short term forecasts initialised daily with analyses) or climate mode (no re-initialisation of model interior during entire simulation period). Model results presented in this paper were generally post processed as daily averaged quantities, separate for land and sea areas when relevant. Post processed output was compared against available analyses or observations of cloud cover, precipitation, vertically integrated atmospheric specific humidity, runoff, surface radiation and near surface synoptic observations. The definition of a common grid and lateral forcing resulted in a high degree of agreement among the participating model results for most cases. Models operated in climate mode generally displayed slightly larger deviations from the observations than the data assimilation or forecast mode integration, but in all cases synoptic events were well captured. Correspondence to near surface synoptic quantities was good. Significant disagreement between model results was shown in particular for cloud cover and the radiative properties, average precipitation and runoff. Problems with choosing appropriate initial soil moisture conditions from a common initial soil moisture field resulted in a wide range of evaporation and sensible heat flux values during the first few weeks of the simulations, but better agreement was shown at later times. Received September 8, 2000 Revised April 3, 2001  相似文献   

The sensitivity of climate simulations to the specification of mixed phase clouds     

D. Gregory  D. Morris 《Climate Dynamics》1996,12(9):641-651

In the prognostic stratiform cloud scheme used in the UK Meteorological Office Unified Model, mixed phase clouds are assumed to exist between 0 and –15 °C. Recent observations of such clouds, carried out using the C-130 aircraft of the Meteorological Research Flight, suggest that a smaller range of 0 to –9°C may be more appropriate. The sensitivity of cloud and radiation fields as simulated by a 5 × 7.5° latitude-longitude version of the Unified Model to such a reduction in the temperature range of mixed phase clouds is considered. Using a smaller temperature range systematic errors in the radiation budget of the model are reduced in mid-latitudes, bringing the model into closer agreement with ERBE data. The sensitivity of model albedo to an increase in the temperature range over which mixed phase clouds are assumed to exist, suggested by previous observational studies, is also considered together with the impact of removing the mixed phase part of the precipitation parametrization altogether.  相似文献   

基于北斗/GNSS的中国-中南半岛地区大气水汽气候特征及同降水的相关分析   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

施闯  张卫星  曹云昌  楼益栋  梁宏  范磊  C SATIRAPOD  C TRAKOLKUL 《测绘学报》1957,49(9):1112-1119

本文采用统一的处理模型和处理策略对中国-中南半岛地区地基北斗/GNSS测站2006—2016年历史观测数据进行高精度重处理和水汽反演,获得近10年的大气可降水含量（PWV）产品。基于北斗/GNSS PWV产品,研究了该地区大气水汽平均含量、年周期振幅和半年周期振幅等气候特征,发现这些特征主要受到了测站纬度、高程以及季风的影响。通过分析PWV同并址气象站降水观测的关联特性,揭示了该地区大气水汽含量同降水相关性随测站纬度减小而降低的特点（在云南相关系数可达0.8,在靠近赤道的泰国南部相关系数约为0.2）。此外,PWV和降水的距平值相关分析表明,相比于历史同期,大气水汽含量较高的月份在一定程度上对应着降水异常偏高,两者相关系数为0.2~0.4。  相似文献   

黑龙江省气候旱涝定量诊断分析     

陈莉  李铁  刘玉莲  王保民 《黑龙江气象》1999,(2):1-6

简单介绍了气候旱涝分析方法,并选择“ＢＭ”方法作为本省气候旱涝定量分析方法。以哈尔滨气候区为例,利用“ＢＭ”方法建立了气候旱涝数学模型,在此基础上提出气候旱涝定量化指标,并进行了动态追踪定量化诊断分析  相似文献   

两次斜压锋生类强对流过程对比分析     

盛志军  周雨  张国平 《气象科技》2021,49(4):569-578

利用常规气象观测资料、加密自动站资料及NCEP再分析资料,对2019年春季江西两次强对流天气(以下简称"3·21"、"4·9"过程)作对比分析。结果表明:(1)两次过程都由冷空气进入地面倒槽触发,"3·21"过程冷暖空气的辐合明显;"4·9"过程锋面辐合较弱,冷锋移动快。(2)"3·21"过程对流发生时湿层更深厚,对流层高层高值位涡库自上而下呈漏斗状延伸至400hPa,"干侵入"特征明显;"4·9"过程中低层整体湿度条件较差,中高层有明显干空气卷入,冷却蒸发作用导致的强下沉气流引发地面大风。(3)"3·21"过程回波有明显弓形特征,中气旋数量达9个;强冷空气从3km高度侵入,动量迅速下传,移速快,对大风等强对流预警有指示意义;"4·9"过程侵入冷空气浅薄,单体风暴VIL小,短临预警低估大风可能性大。  相似文献   

风云四号气象卫星地面测距系统精度改进技术     

贾耀红  任立清  郭强 《气象科技》2020,48(5):630-634

风云四号静止气象卫星(FY-4)地面测距系统用于获得分布在不同地方的5个地面站到卫星的精确距离,进而利用得到的距离数据确定并预报卫星的轨道和位置,所以测距精度是影响卫星轨道和位置确定精度的主要因素。本文根据测距系统工作的原理及过程,分析影响测距精度的误差来源,从测距体制、站址坐标测量、地面设备时延测量、转发器时延测量、大气传输时延测量和各站时间同步几个方面分析了风云四号测距系统为了提高测距精度采取的相应的技术手段。  相似文献