Response of the Gulf Stream transport to characteristic high and low phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation     

《Ocean Modelling》2011,40(3-4):220-232

We investigate an ambiguity in the current understanding of the Gulf Stream (GS) transport in response to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While some investigations (discussed herein) suggest enhanced transport during low NAO phases, other studies suggest enhanced transport in high NAO phases. NAO-induced variability in the western North Atlantic is studied by using a 1/6°-resolution basin-scale Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) model. Results indicate that the western boundary current limb of the GS, upstream of Cape Hatteras, exhibit enhanced transport during low-NAO phases. However, further downstream of Cape Hatteras, after the GS separates from the coast, diminished GS transport is seen during low-NAO phases. The converse is true for high NAO phases for both segments of the GS system. Model results show the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC), the northern recirculation gyre and the southern recirculation gyre intensify (weaken) during the high (low) NAO periods.  相似文献   

Effect of offshore troughs on the South India erratic summer monsoon rainfall in June 2017     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2021

The onset and advance of southwest monsoon are accompanied by the appearance of the offshore trough along the southwest coast of India. This offshore trough escorts a deluge of rainfall to the southwest coast, and sometimes rainfall band moves eastward further into south India. These broad observations were noticed during the summer monsoon of June 2017. Meteorological agencies and media had reported a huge amount of rainfall over the southwest coast of India during the month. But, in the far interior of south India, rainfall was less. Due to the less rainfall, water resources depleted, which affected local farmers and common man of south India. The confused views of the common man on southwest coast rainfall could be due to lack of understanding related to various factors affecting rainfall over the same region. This article is an endeavor to address the preliminary understanding of the southwest coast rainfall during June 2017, with more stress on offshore troughs. The study begins with area-averaged rainfall statistics over south, southwest, and southeast India by employing satellite and rain gauge merged rainfall datasets. Area averaged analysis revealed offshore trough contributed 80 % of rainfall over the South West India, 68 % over South East India, contributing to an overall 75 % over south India in 2017. To identify offshore trough position and strength in the reanalysis and model simulations, a new method called VSV (Vertical Shear of Vorticity) method was introduced. The computed offshore troughs were categorized into Active, Normal, and Feeble based on the strength of meridional gradient of mean sea level pressure and 850 hPa horizontal winds. The contribution due to each category of the offshore trough over different sub-regions was investigated to find out the effect of the offshore trough to total rainfall. Dynamic and thermodynamic features of these categories of the offshore trough were investigated by using proxies like equivalent potential temperature and moisture flux convergence. We found that during active offshore trough an eastward propagation of rain bands persists, which was explained by using moisture flux convergence and equivalent potential temperature at different levels of the atmosphere.  相似文献   

On the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last deglaciation     

Wei Liu  Zhengyu Liu  Jun Cheng  Haibo Hu 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(5-6):1257-1275

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Parallelization Load Balance Strategy for a Global Grid-Point Model     

WU Xiangjun  CHEN Dehui  SONG Junqiang  JIN Zhiyan  YANG Xuesheng  ZHANG Hongliang 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2010,24(5):622-630

The Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System (GRAPES) is a new-generation operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model developed by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA).It is a grid-point model with a code structure different from that of spectral models used in other operational NWP centers such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF),National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP),and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA),especially in the context of p...  相似文献   

Projection of lightning over South/South East Asia using CMIP5 models     

Chandra  Sagarika  Kumar  Praveen  Siingh  Devendraa  Roy  I.  Victor  N. Jeni  Kamra  A. K. 《Natural Hazards》2022,110(1):57-68

Physical phenomena observed before strong earthquakes have been reported for centuries. Precursor signals, which include radon anomalies, electrical signals, water level changes and ground lights near the epicenter, can all be used for earthquake prediction. Anomalous negative signals observed by ground-based atmospheric electric field instruments under fair weather conditions constitute a novel earthquake prediction approach. In theory, the abnormal radiation of heat before an earthquake produces fair weather around the epicenter. To determine the near-epicenter weather conditions prior to an earthquake, 81 global earthquake events with magnitudes of 6 or above from 2008 to 2021 were collected. According to Harrison's fair weather criteria, in 81.48% of all statistical cases, the weather was fair 6 h before the earthquake; in 62.96% of all cases, the weather was fair 24 h before the event. Moreover, most of these cases without fair weather several hours before the earthquake were near the sea. Among the 37 inland earthquakes, 86.49% were preceded by 6 h of fair weather, and 70.27% were preceded by fair weather for 24 h. We conclude that the weather near the epicenter might be fair for several hours before a strong earthquake, especially for inland events.

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相似集合预报方法在北京区域地面气温和风速预报中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王在文  陈敏  Luca Delle Monache  卢冰  张涵斌 《气象学报》2019,77(5):869-884

相似集合是近年来提出的一种基于相似理论、大数据挖掘和集合预报思路的统计释用方法。文中首先介绍了相似集合的基本原理,并应用该方法对北京快速更新循环数值预报系统（BJ-RUC）v3.0预报地面要素开展了订正释用试验。结果表明,相似集合订正后,在0—36 h预报时段内,10 m风速的均方根误差降低44%,2 m气温的均方根误差降低22%,均方根误差均显著减小。对比测站预报误差的水平分布,相似集合方法的应用对于提升非城区站点的10 m风速预报、复杂地形区域的2 m气温预报具有更为明显的效果。相同预报因子的相似集合和支持向量机方法对模式10 m风速和2 m气温预报均具有显著且相似的订正效果,但相似集合方法具有计算资源需求较少、不需要大量人工干预的优势。相似集合方法形成的集合较好地模拟了模式平均误差的增长情况,集合离散度与集合平均均方根误差表现出理想的统计一致性,即相似集合方法在形成确定性预报的同时,还能够提供预报要素的不确定性或概率信息。因此,相似集合方法在模式预报订正及释用方面具有广阔的应用前景。   相似文献   

两类不同风灾个例超级单体特征对比分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

杨波  孙继松  刘鑫华 《气象学报》2019,77(3):427-441

采用分钟级加密自动气象站观测资料,盐城、淮安和岳阳、荆州雷达探测数据,以及欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）高分辨率的ERA-Interim全球再分析数据,对比分析了2016年6月23日江苏阜宁龙卷灾害和2015年6月1日湖北监利下击暴流大风灾害的环境特征与超级单体的结构特征。结果表明:（1）两次强对流大风灾害发生在相似的低空环流背景下:风灾发生在低空急流出口区左侧的暖区内、850 hPa低涡中心东侧6—7个经距的位置;环境大气的对流有效位能大于2000 J/kg。但是风灾的类型不同,江苏阜宁大风灾害主要由超级单体龙卷造成,监利“东方之星”沉船事故主要是超级单体触发的下击暴流造成。短时强降水中心与风灾中心的相对位置不同:阜宁龙卷移动方向的左侧伴随着最强短时降水;湖北监利沉船事件发生期间,风灾中心与短时强降水中心基本重合。鉴于不同性质的对流大风位置与超级单体母体的中心位置对应关系上存在差异,通过比较地面观测的瞬时大风与瞬时强降水中心的相对位置将有助于区分强对流大风的性质。（2）环境风垂直切变强度对对流风暴结构、发展、维持有重要影响:阜宁龙卷发生时,其上空0—6 km风垂直切变达4×10-3 s-1,超级单体有明显的向前倾斜结构,形成有界弱回波区;而监利强对流沉船位置0—6 km风垂直切变只有2.3×10-3 s-1左右,风暴单体中的上升气流近乎于垂直。阜宁超级单体中气旋,首先出现在0—1.5 km风垂直切变和0—3 km风暴相对螺旋度带状大值区,在向抬升凝结高度更低的环境移动过程中,其底部不断下降,形成龙卷;而在监利沉船区,中低层风切变和风暴相对螺旋度相对要弱得多,对应风暴单体中的中气旋强度、持续性较弱,中气旋底部高度维持在1.6 km左右。（3）环境湿度垂直结构特征不同可能是风暴单体形成不同类型灾害大风的重要环境因子。监利下击暴流造成的风灾发生时,在地面气温迅速下降过程中,气压变化呈现快速跳升又快速下降的“尖锥”形,气压峰值比降水峰值提前4 min出现。它与对流层中高层环境大气中较为深厚的干空气卷入对流风暴中造成水物质强烈蒸发、冷却过程有关。而阜宁风灾过程中,环境大气中层仅存在非常浅薄的干层,加之低层较为深厚的饱和大气环境,对应的地面冷池效应相对较弱。   相似文献   

面向四维变分资料同化的NSAS积云深对流参数化方案的简化及线性化研究     

龚建东  刘永柱  张林 《气象学报》2019,77(4):595-616

GRAPES全球四维变分资料同化系统需要积云深对流参数化方案的线性化与伴随方案,直接采用原始复杂参数化方案进行线性化并不可行,需要发展简化光滑方案来减缓非线性与非连续性特征。GRAPES全球模式采用NSAS积云对流参数化方案,积云深对流对环境的反馈主要通过补偿下沉来实现,研究突出补偿下沉作用,忽略降水蒸发、动量反馈等贡献,形成简化方案。采用输入温、湿度廓线加入不同幅度小扰动方法,评估参数化方案计算的温度、比湿时间倾向对输入扰动的敏感性,检验非线性与非连续特征。提出避免或减缓非连续“开关”的方法,在简化方案的基础上发展了简化光滑方案。简化光滑方案与原始积云深对流方案相比,在对流触发上一致,在对流的位温与比湿倾向、降水的时序模拟等方面相似,而在减缓非线性、避免非连续性方面显著优于原始方案。基于简化光滑方案发展的线性化方案表明,对小于2倍分析增量幅度的扰动,线性化方案可以较好地模拟非线性方案的扰动发展。发展的简化光滑方案具有合理性和实用性。   相似文献   

基于大气环流的稻纵卷叶螟气象预测模型          下载免费PDF全文

王纯枝  张蕾  郭安红  李轩  刘维  庄立伟  陆明红  吕厚荃  包云轩 《应用气象学报》2019,30(5):565-576

基于1980-2016年全国稻纵卷叶螟逐年发生面积、产量损失资料、逐月74项大气环流特征量以及南方15省(区、市)地面气象资料,采用因子膨化处理技术、Pearson遥相关分析法和逐步回归分析法,筛选对中国稻纵卷叶螟发生面积率有显著影响的大气环流因子,构建中国稻纵卷叶螟发生面积率的多时相动态大气环流预测模型,探讨大气环流对中国稻纵卷叶螟发生的可能影响机制。结果表明:46项大气环流因子与稻纵卷叶螟发生关系密切,副热带高压类、极涡类环流因子是中国稻纵卷叶螟发生面积率的主导影响因子。建立的中国稻纵卷叶螟发生面积率年前、年后3-10月的月动态预测模型历史拟合较好,对2015年、2016年1月初及3-10月各月初外延预报两年平均准确率分别达86.6%,90.5%,91.8%,93.4%,93.4%,94.0%,94.0%,94.3%,95.4%。关键环流特征因子、当年气候年型和稻区5-9月气象条件对中国稻纵卷叶螟的发生程度具有较好的指示效应,稻纵卷叶螟发生面积率较大的年份主要出现在干暖年和湿暖年;干冷年型常导致稻纵卷叶螟发生面积率偏小。  相似文献   

NINO3.4指数的多模式集合预报方法     

郭炜豪  温文  王晓春  郑志海 《热带气象学报》2019,35(2):262-267

基于贝叶斯模式平均方法(Bayesian Model Averaging),发展了一个NINO3.4指数的多模式客观权重集合预报方法(简称OBJ)。该方法基于训练期内单个模式的预报结果,用线性回归订正单个预报的偏差,依据模式的预报效果估计单个模式的权重。利用2002年2月—2015年10月美国哥伦比亚大学国际气候与社会研究所(IRI)提供的7个单一模式对NINO3.4指数的预报结果进行OBJ试验,并采用均方根误差对多模式集合平均预报(简称ENS)和OBJ的预报结果进行检验和评估。结果表明,ENS的预报效果优于7个单一模式的预报效果,而OBJ预报效果优于ENS预报效果,其NINO3.4指数的均方根误差比ENS方法降低了4%。将单一模式预报结果按时间划分为训练期和预报期,利用独立样本估计OBJ的参数并进行预报试验,这些试验也表明,OBJ能进一步提高预报精度。   相似文献