Understanding scientists’ computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models     

《Global Environmental Change》2017

  相似文献   

Science and Sensibility: Negotiating an Ecology of Place     

Erin Upton  Daniel Jaffee 《社会与自然资源》2017,30(11):1421-1422

  相似文献   

The Influence of Place on the Willingness to Pay for Ecosystem Services     

Max Nielsen-Pincus  Patricia Sussman  Drew E. Bennett  Hannah Gosnell  Robert Parker 《社会与自然资源》2017,30(12):1423-1441

Sense of place, including an individual’s attitudes toward specific geographic settings, is generally predicted to influence willingness to engage in place-protective behaviors. Relatively little research, however, has empirically examined the influence of people’s attitudes toward a place on their willingness to pay for environmental protection. Using the example of a payment for ecosystem services (PES) initiative in the McKenzie River watershed, Oregon, USA, we found that place attitudes were a significant predictor of respondents’ willingness to pay for a program designed to benefit drinking water quality. These results suggest that connecting conservation actions to landscapes that are meaningful to people may increase their financial support for PES and other conservation programs. While program managers have little or no influence over stakeholders’ political ideology, gender, or income, managers may be able to influence prospective PES buyers’ awareness and attitudes through targeted communications, thereby potentially increasing support for place-based conservation efforts.  相似文献   

Landowner Attitudes Toward Conservation Easements: Balancing the Private and Public Interest in Land     

Ashley Vizek  Max Nielsen-Pincus 《社会与自然资源》2017,30(9):1080-1095

Private land conservation provides an opportunity to address problems of habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss caused by an increase in the development and parcelization of private land. Conservation easements (CEs) are used to protect significant natural qualities of private land. In this study, we explore landowner attitudes toward CEs through the implementation of a mixed-mode survey to private landowners in the Whychus Creek Watershed (Deschutes County, Oregon). The results of an exploratory factor analysis suggest there are two dimensions to landowner attitudes toward CEs, an internal dimension and an external dimension. We found that positive external attitudes are primarily influenced by environmental beliefs, whereas positive internal attitudes are influenced by a suite of factors, including financial beliefs and perceived risk to private ownership. Awareness of CEs may also play a role in attitude development. Through this research, we argue that CEs may be beneficial in reintegrating the public good into private property.  相似文献   

Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape     

Joshua S. Halofsky  Jessica E. Halofsky  Miles A. Hemstrom  Anita T. Morzillo  Xiaoping Zhou  Daniel C. Donato 《Climatic change》2017,142(1-2):83-95

While ecosystem services and climate change are often examined independently, quantitative assessments integrating these fields are needed to inform future land management decisions. Using climate-informed state-and-transition simulations, we examined projected trends and tradeoffs for a suite of ecosystem services under four climate change scenarios and two management scenarios (active management emphasizing fuel treatments and no management other than fire suppression) in a fire-prone landscape of dry and moist mixed-conifer forests in central Oregon, USA. Focal ecosystem services included fire potential (regulating service), timber volume (provisioning service), and potential wildlife habitat (supporting service). Projections without climate change suggested active management in dry mixed-conifer forests would create more open forest structures, reduce crown fire potential, and maintain timber stocks, while in moist mixed-conifer forests, active management would reduce crown fire potential but at the expense of timber stocks. When climate change was considered, however, trends in most ecosystem services changed substantially, with large increases in wildfire area predominating broad-scale trends in outputs, regardless of management approach (e.g., strong declines in timber stocks and habitat for closed-forest wildlife species). Active management still had an influence under a changing climate, but as a moderator of the strong climate-driven trends rather than being a principal driver of ecosystem service outputs. These results suggest projections of future ecosystem services that do not consider climate change may result in unrealistic expectations of benefits.  相似文献   

Multi-criteria evaluation of CMIP5 GCMs for climate change impact analysis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ali?AhmadalipourEmail author  Arun?Rana  Hamid?Moradkhani  Ashish?Sharma 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,128(1-2):71-87

Climate change is expected to have severe impacts on global hydrological cycle along with food-water-energy nexus. Currently, there are many climate models used in predicting important climatic variables. Though there have been advances in the field, there are still many problems to be resolved related to reliability, uncertainty, and computing needs, among many others. In the present work, we have analyzed performance of 20 different global climate models (GCMs) from Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset over the Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest USA. We demonstrate a statistical multicriteria approach, using univariate and multivariate techniques, for selecting suitable GCMs to be used for climate change impact analysis in the region. Univariate methods includes mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, relative change (variability), Mann-Kendall test, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS-test); whereas multivariate methods used were principal component analysis (PCA), singular value decomposition (SVD), canonical correlation analysis (CCA), and cluster analysis. The analysis is performed on raw GCM data, i.e., before bias correction, for precipitation and temperature climatic variables for all the 20 models to capture the reliability and nature of the particular model at regional scale. The analysis is based on spatially averaged datasets of GCMs and observation for the period of 1970 to 2000. Ranking is provided to each of the GCMs based on the performance evaluated against gridded observational data on various temporal scales (daily, monthly, and seasonal). Results have provided insight into each of the methods and various statistical properties addressed by them employed in ranking GCMs. Further; evaluation was also performed for raw GCM simulations against different sets of gridded observational dataset in the area.  相似文献   

How many Stakes are Required to Measure the Mass Balance of a Glacier?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Andrew G. Fountain  & Aldo Vecchia 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》1999,81(4):563-573

Glacier mass balance is estimated for South Cascade Glacier and Maclure Glacier using a one-dimensional regression of mass balance with altitude as an alternative to the traditional approach of contouring mass balance values. One attractive feature of regression is that it can be applied to sparse data sets where contouring is not possible and can provide an objective error of the resulting estimate. Regression methods yielded mass balance values equivalent to contouring methods. The effect of the number of mass balance measurements on the final value for the glacier showed that sample sizes as small as five stakes provided reasonable estimates, although the error estimates were greater than for larger sample sizes. Different spatial patterns of measurement locations showed no appreciable influence on the final value as long as different surface altitudes were intermittently sampled over the altitude range of the glacier. Two different regression equations were examined, a quadratic, and a piecewise linear spline, and comparison of results showed little sensitivity to the type of equation. These results point to the dominant effect of the gradient of mass balance with altitude of alpine glaciers compared to transverse variations. The number of mass balance measurements required to determine the glacier balance appears to be scale invariant for small glaciers and five to ten stakes are sufficient.  相似文献   

On-chip micro-refrigerators for sub-Kelvin cooling     

《New Astronomy Reviews》1999,43(2-4):317-327

Thin-film tunnel junctions made of a normal metal, an insulating layer and a superconductor (this structures are also called NIS junctions), are able to cool down the metal electrons by means of the tunneling mechanism. This fact opens the possibility to refrigerate small detectors by means of a local cooling of the chip. Another important application of the NIS junctions is high sensitive thermometry. These NIS coolers, together with their relative thermometers, are fabricated by using micro and nano-electronic techniques. This fact makes them very compact devices, allowing sub-Kelvin cooling with no moving parts. The present status of the art on Peltier refrigeration by NIS junctions will be reviewed in this work.  相似文献   

Rare-earth element (REE) behaviour in the alteration facies of the active magmatic–hydrothermal system of Vulcano (Aeolian Islands,Italy)     

《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》1999,88(4):325-342

This work reports a study on the rare-earth element (REE) behaviour in the high-sulfidation-type superficial alteration and in the phyllic and propylitic alteration in the subsurface of the island of Vulcano. The results of this study demonstrate notable differences in the REE behaviour in the different alteration facies. In silicic alteration, all REE are equally strongly depleted; in advanced argillic alteration, LREE are quite immobile whereas HREE are strongly depleted; in intermediate argillic, phyllic and propylitic alteration, REE patterns are almost unchanged compared with their fresh rock equivalents. These features indicate that the behaviour of REE in hydrothermal alteration facies at La Fossa is mainly controlled by pH, availability of complexing ions in the fluid (mainly SO₄²⁻ and, in the silicic facies, F⁻) and the presence of secondary minerals able to host REE in their structures. The origin of the acid fluids is related to the hypogenic introduction of prevalently magmatic acid gases produced by the degassing of the shallow magmatic system of La Fossa volcano. In the active high-temperature fumarolic field of La Fossa, REE behaviour illustrates the transition from a dry vapor system, corresponding to the high-temperature fumaroles, to a wet condensing system in the surrounding area. The results of this research, carried out on an active high-sulfidation system, provide a useful tool for the study of high-sulfidation epithermal ore deposits and particularly help to understand the alteration processes during the main stage of hypogene wall rock alteration.  相似文献   

A multicatchment analysis of headwater and downstream temperature effects from contemporary forest harvesting          下载免费PDF全文

Kevin D. Bladon  Catalina Segura  Nicholas A. Cook  Sharon Bywater‐Reyes  Maryanne Reiter 《水文研究》2018,32(2):293-304

Stream temperature is a key physical water‐quality parameter, controlling many biological, chemical, and physical processes in aquatic ecosystems. Maintenance of cool stream temperatures during summer is critical for high‐quality aquatic habitat. As such, transmission of warm water from small, nonfish‐bearing headwater streams after forest harvesting could cause warming in downstream fish‐bearing stream reaches with negative consequences. In this study, we evaluate (a) the effects of contemporary forest management practices on stream temperature in small, headwater streams, (b) the transmission of thermal signals from headwater reaches after harvesting to downstream fish‐bearing reaches, and (c) the relative role of lithology and forest management practices in influencing differential thermal responses in both the headwater and downstream reaches. We measured summer stream temperatures both preharvest and postharvest at 29 sites—12 upstream sites (4 reference, 8 harvested) and 17 downstream sites (5 reference, 12 harvested)—across 3 paired watershed studies in western Oregon. The 7‐day moving average of daily maximum stream temperature (T_7DAYMAX) was greater during the postharvest period relative to the preharvest period at 7 of the 8 harvested upstream sites. Although the T_7DAYMAX was generally warmer in the downstream direction at most of the stream reaches during both the preharvest and postharvest period, there was no evidence for additional downstream warming related to the harvesting activity. Rather, the T_7DAYMAX cooled rapidly as stream water flowed into forested reaches ~370–1,420 m downstream of harvested areas. Finally, the magnitude of effects of contemporary forest management practices on stream temperature increased with the proportion of catchment underlain by more resistant lithology at both the headwater and downstream sites, reducing the potential for the cooling influence of groundwater.  相似文献