Decadal Variability of Extreme Precipitation Days over Northwest China from 1963 to 2012          下载免费PDF全文

GUO Pinwen  ZHANG Xiakun  ZHANG Shuyu  WANG Chunling  ZHANG Xiao 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2014,28(6):1099-1113

Daily precipitation data from 153 meteorological stations over Northwest China during summer from 1963 to 2012 were selected to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme summer precipitation frequency. The results show that the extreme precipitation frequency was regional dependent. Southern Gansu, northern Qinghai, and southern Shaanxi provinces exhibited a high extreme precipitation frequency and were prone to abrupt changes in the frequency. Northwest China was further divided into three sub-regions (northern, central, and southern) based on cluster analysis of the 50-yr extreme precipitation frequency series for each meteorological station. The extreme precipitation frequency changes were manifested in the northern region during the late 1970s and in the central region from the end of the 1980s to the 1990s. The southern region fluctuated on a timescale of quasi-10 yr. This study also explored the mechanism of changes in extreme precipitation frequency. The results demonstrate that stratification stability, atmospheric water vapor content, and upward motion all affected the changes in extreme precipitation frequency.  相似文献   

UV-B辐射增强对河南省夏直播花生产量及品质的影响     

韩艳  娄运生  李萌  胡程达  刘荣花 《南京气象学院学报》2014,6(3):244-248

在大田条件下,研究了模拟地表UV-B辐射增强对花生（开农49号）的产量及品质的影响.UV-B辐射设3个水平,即对照、增强20%和增强40%.结果表明：UV-B辐射增强能显著降低花生产量,产量下降的原因主要是由单位面积产量、株荚果数、百仁重减少造成的;花生品质受UV-B影响较为复杂,UV-B增强20%时,花生脂肪质量分数为51.02%,蛋白质质量分数为22.34%,油酸/亚油酸质量比为1.19,较对照组提高了0.02;UV-B增强40%时,花生脂肪质量分数为51.82%,蛋白质质量分数为22.56%,油酸/亚油酸质量比为1.28,较对照组提高了0.11.研究认为,UV-B辐射增强,不足以对花生的品质产生显著影响,这可能与设定的UV-B辐射强度、试验设计方案及花生的品种有关.  相似文献   

Time delays in the correlation between solar activity and the F2 region plasma frequency     

Ludmila Triskova  Vladimir Truhlik  Katerina Podolska 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2011,73(5-6):623-626

The upper ionosphere electron density characterized by the critical frequency foF2 is correlated with solar activity when using monthly medians or averages from longer intervals. When shorter intervals are studied, time delays of different lengths in solar activity effects in the ionosphere are observed. The correlation between the foF2 values and the solar radiation intensity, given by the F10.7 index, is studied using the 1967–2003 data of mid-latitude ionosonde stations spaced at distances greater than 100° in geographical longitude. At which longitude the reaction of foF2 to the changes in solar activity appears sooner depends on the position of the interval studied in the 22-year solar cycle.  相似文献   

气候变暖下干旱对森林生态系统的影响     

周国逸  李琳  吴安驰 《南京气象学院学报》2020,12(1):81-88

人类活动显著影响着全球大气循环格局,全球平均温度升高导致干旱事件发生幅度、频度和持续时间增加,这对森林生态系统带来更多的是负面影响.本文基于已有研究,系统总结了干旱事件对森林生态系统地理分布格局、群落结构重建、植物生长和生理特性、死亡和灭绝、植物生产力以及碳循环功能的影响及其机理,并对未来干旱事件对森林生态系统长期效应以及在不同时间尺度上作用机理的研究提出建议.本研究对开展全球变化背景下森林生态系统对干旱事件响应机制的研究具有重要指导意义.  相似文献   

北京“7.21”特大暴雨环流形势极端性客观分析   总被引：14，自引：3，他引：11  

赵洋洋  张庆红  杜宇  江漫  张季平 《气象学报》2013,71(5):817-824

2012年7月21日(简称“7.21”),北京发生了自1951年以来最强的暴雨事件。利用倾斜旋转T模态主成分分析法和美国国家环境预报中心/美国国家大气研究中心再分析资料,探讨了北京“7.21”特大暴雨的大尺度环流形势的极端性。结果表明,北京“7.21”暴雨日所属的大尺度环流型在1951—2012年夏季出现的频率为10.9%,而在“7.21”同类环流型中暴雨出现的概率为4.51%。和同类暴雨日平均场相比,“7.21”暴雨日当天西太平洋副热带高压西伸更强,北京地区对流层低空急流更强,并伴随环境大气中极端充沛的可降水量和较大的风垂直切变。在“7.21”同类环流型下的621 d中,“7.21”暴雨日北京南侧的低空急流排在第54位,北京局地风垂直切变排在第209位,可降水量排在第8位,显示出其在低空急流和可降水量上的极端性。1951—2012年夏季,具有“7.21”暴雨日同类环流形势、且925 hPa低空急流和可降水量均达到或超过“7.21”暴雨日值的个例有3次,相当于每21年发生一次。  相似文献   

The Application of a Meteo-hydrological Forecasting System with Rainfall Bias Correction in a Small and Medium-sized Catchment     

高玉芳  吴雨晴  陈耀登  喻伟  顾天威  武雅珍 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(2):154-168

Meteo-hydrological forecasting models are an effective way to generate high-resolution gridded rainfall data for water source research and flood forecast. The quality of rainfall data in terms of both intensity and distribution is very important for establishing a reliable meteo-hydrological forecasting model. To improve the accuracy of rainfall data, the successive correction method is introduced to correct the bias of rainfall, and a meteo-hydrological forecasting model based on WRF and WRF-Hydro is applied for streamflow forecast over the Zhanghe River catchment in China. The performance of WRF rainfall is compared with the China Meteorological Administration Multi-source Precipitation Analysis System (CMPAS), and the simulated streamflow from the model is further studied. It shows that the corrected WRF rainfall is more similar to the CMPAS in both temporal and spatial distribution than the original WRF rainfall. By contrast, the statistical metrics of the corrected WRF rainfall are better. When the corrected WRF rainfall is used to drive the WRF-Hydro model, the simulated streamflow of most events is significantly improved in both hydrographs and volume than that of using the original WRF rainfall. Among the studied events, the largest improvement of the NSE is from -0.68 to 0.67. It proves that correcting the bias of WRF rainfall with the successive correction method can greatly improve the performance of streamflow forecast. In general, the WRF / WRF-Hydro meteo-hydrological forecasting model based on the successive correction method has the potential to provide better streamflow forecast in the Zhanghe River catchment.  相似文献   

Analysis of Cloud Scale Error of Low Resolution Satellite Based on GF-4 and Its Influence on Downward Radiation Calculation     

Chuanxiang Yi  Xiaozhou Xin  Jichao Hu  Hailong Zhang  Xiaojun Li  Wei Gong 《地球科学进展》2018,33(4):425-434

In order to study the scale error of low resolution meteorological satellite cloud detection and its impact on the calculation of downlink radiation, cloud detection using high resolution stationary satellite GF-4 data and error analysis were carried out. Firstly, the cloud detection of GF-4 data is carried out by using visible channel threshold method and time series method, and the error of cloud detection results of Himawari-8 and FY-2 (FY-2G, FY-2E) is analyzed based on the results of GF-4 cloud detection.In the study area, FY-2G, FY-2E and Himawari-8 cloud images could distinguish the clouds and clear sky. The main reason for the error was the scale effect produced by different spatial resolution satellites(the differences caused by cloud detection algorithms are not discussed here).Most of the errors occurred in the areas of thin clouds and broken clouds.High resolution data could detect broken clouds, while low resolution data lead to false and missed detection. On this basis, the error of remote sensing calculation of short wave radiation was analyzed,and it was found that the error of the actual cloud amount in the pixel would bring significant error to the estimation of the downward radiation.The relative error of the instantaneous downward radiation in the selected test area was -173.52%, and the maximum relative error of shortwave radiation was -20.20%.The results show that the high resolution stationary satellite data can significantly improve the estimation accuracy of the downlink shortwave radiation in the regions with more broken clouds.  相似文献   

CatBoost模型在水深反演中的应用     

孔瑞瑶  谢涛  马明  孔瑞林 《测绘通报》2022,(7):33-37

在多光谱遥感水深反演研究中,由于影响反演精度的因素较多,传统的水深反演模型具有一定局限性。机器学习算法在解决非线性高复杂问题上较有优势,将其应用在某些特定区域水深反演可提高反演精度。本文利用Sentinel-2多光谱遥感影像和LiDAR测深数据,以瓦胡岛为研究区域,构建CatBoost水深反演模型,与传统水深反演模型及Boosting中的XGBoost和LightGBM模型的反演精度进行比较。试验结果表明,经过参数优化后的CatBoost水深反演模型的决定系数、均方根误差、平均绝对误差和平均相对误差分别为96.19%、1.09 m、0.77 m和9.61%,准确性最高,效果更佳。  相似文献   

基于标准有效温度和不舒适指标研究南京热舒适状况     

赵子健  陈静怡  钟隽文 《气象与环境科学》2013,36(4):16-21

采用标准有效温度和不舒适指标,分析了南京市热舒适状况。以南京市2010年全年的逐时气温和相对湿度资料为基础,计算了2010年逐月每小时气温和相对湿度平均值。通过假定在均匀的环境条件下,遮阴的室内,伏案工作活动量为1.0 met,夏季服装热阻为0.6 clo,春、秋、冬季服装热阻为0.9 clo,室内风速约为0.125 m/s,计算出各月逐时标准有效温度和不舒适指标。结果表明,南京市的热舒适状况具有明显的季节变化和日变化特征。季节变化特征显示：夏冬两季热舒适度偏低,夏季平均标准有效温度和不舒适指标分别为27.6℃和0.7,人体感觉偏热;冬季平均标准有效温度和不舒适指标分别为9.4℃和-2.8,人体感觉偏冷;春秋两季热舒适度指数高,春季平均标准有效温度和不舒适指标分别为19.7℃和-0.8,秋季为17.2℃和-1.3,人体普遍感觉舒适,但舒适期持续时间短,全年约62天。就日变化特征而言,冬季白天人体热舒适度普遍高于夜间,夏季则相反。上述结果能够较好地反映南京市人体的普遍热舒适感,可为旅游、建筑、医疗、交通等相关行业和部门提供参考。  相似文献   

基于Landsat TM/ETM+数据的南昌城市热岛效应研究     

吴凡  景元书 《南京气象学院学报》2013,5(4):326-330

利用Landsat TM/ETM+数据进行南昌市地表温度反演,得出1989年和2000年2个时相的南昌市热岛强度等级分布特征,结合下垫面土地覆盖类型图,选取样区对比分析了地表温度空间分布.结果表明:南昌市存在比较明显的热岛效应,主城区的地表温度由城区中心向近郊、远郊逐渐降低,城市地表温度与下垫面的性质紧密相关.研究结果对于改善南昌城市生态环境、减缓城市热岛效应具有重要的参考价值.  相似文献