Understanding the temporal variations of extreme floods that occur in response to climate change is essential to anticipate the trends in flood magnitude and frequency in the context of global warming. However, long-term records of paleofloods in arid regions are scarce, thus preventing a thorough understanding of such events. In this study, a reconstruction of paleofloods over the past 300 years was conducted through an analysis of grain sizes from the sediments of Kanas Lake in the Altay Mountains of northwestern China. Results showed that grain parameters and frequency distributions can be used to infer possible abrupt environmental events within the lake sedimentary sequence, and two extreme flood events corresponding to ca. 1736–1765 AD and ca. 1890 AD were further identified based on canonical discriminant analysis(CDA) and coarse percentile versus median grain size(C-M) pattern analysis, both of which occurred during warmer and wetter climate conditions by referring to tree-ring records. These two flood events are also evidenced by lake sedimentary records in the Altay and Tianshan mountains. Furthermore, through a comparison with other records, the flood event from ca. 1736–1765 AD in the study region seems to have occurred in both the arid central Asia and the Alps in Europe, and thus may have been associated with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) index. 相似文献
In the metropolises of China, the metro plays an increasingly important role in commuting because of its efficiency, affordability, and cleanliness. This paper attempts to explore the relationship between walking access distance to metro stations and the demographic characteristics of passengers, such as age, monthly income, travel frequency, gender, and travel purpose, as well as the influence of the urban context. Nanjing Metro Line 2 is selected as the case study. By using different methods such as a questionnaire survey, spatial decay function, analysis of covariance (ANOVA), network analysis of routes, and K-means cluster analysis, it is suggested that demographic characteristics have a significant impact on the pedestrian walking distance, with the exception of gender. Furthermore, the paper finds a spatial decay effect in walking access distance, the decay rate of which, however, varies across stations. Terminal stations have a larger pedestrian catchment area than in regular and exchange stations. Moreover, the passengers of Nanjing Metro Line 2 can be classified into six groups according to their demographic characteristics, among which education and occupation are vital indicators in determining their willingness to walk to the stations. Middle-class passengers have a higher dependence on the metro and tend to walk longer than other groups do. This study provides an important reference for planners and transport sectors to optimize land-use and transport infrastructures. 相似文献
The Fenglin and Fengcong landform units are considered to be an important representation for defining the degree of development of Karst landforms. However, these terrain features have been proven difficult to delineate and extract automatically because of their complex morphology. In this paper, a new method for identifying the Fenglin and Fengcong landform units is proposed. This method consists of two steps: (1) terrain openness calculation and (2) toe line extraction. The proposed method is applied and validated in the Karst case area of Guilin by using ASTER GDEM with one arc-second resolution. The openness of both the positive and negative terrain and a threshold were used to extract toe lines for segmenting depressions and pinnacles in Fenglin and Fengcong landforms. A comparison between the extracted Fenglin and Fengcong landform units and their real units from high resolution images was carried out to evaluate the capability of the proposed method. Results show the proposed method can effectively extract the Fenglin and Fengcong landform units, and has an overall accuracy of 93.28%. The proposed method is simple and easy to implement and is expected to play an important role in the automatic extraction of similar landform units in the Karst area. 相似文献
The transfer and evolution of stress among rock blocks directly change the void ratios of crushed rock masses and affect the flow of methane in coal mine gobs. In this study, a Lagrange framework and a discrete element method, along with the soft-sphere model and EDEM numerical software, were used. The compaction processes of rock blocks with diameters of 0.6, 0.8, and 1.0 m were simulated with the degrees of compression set at 0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, and 25%. This study examines the influence of stress on void ratios of compacted crushed rock masses in coal mine gobs. The results showed that stress was mainly transmitted downward through strong force chains. As the degree of compression increased, the strong force chains extended downward, which resulted in the stress at the upper rock mass to become significantly higher than that at the lower rock mass. It was determined that under different degrees of compression, the rock mass of coal mine gobs could be divided, from the bottom to the top, into a lower insufficient compression zone (ICZ) and an upper sufficient compression zone (SCZ). From bottom to top, the void ratios in the ICZ sharply decreased and those in the SCZ slowly decreased. Void ratios in the ICZ were 1.2–1.7 times higher than those in the SCZ.
In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming
at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis
of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step,
‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE
spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of
their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the
direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion
of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s−1, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated
as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’,
we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the
onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8
and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the
relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison
among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method
is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude
of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation
thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency. 相似文献