STUDY OF THE MODIFICATION OF MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SCHEMES FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS     

张涵斌  智协飞  陈静  王亚男  王轶 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(4):389-399

This study investigates multi-model ensemble forecasts of track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the western Pacific, based on forecast outputs from the China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Japan Meteorological Agency and National Centers for Environmental Prediction in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) datasets. The multi-model ensemble schemes, namely the bias-removed ensemble mean (BREM) and superensemble (SUP), are compared with the ensemble mean (EMN) and single-model forecasts. Moreover, a new model bias estimation scheme is investigated and applied to the BREM and SUP schemes. The results showed that, compared with single-model forecasts and EMN, the multi-model ensembles of the BREM and SUP schemes can have smaller errors in most cases. However, there were also circumstances where BREM was less skillful than EMN, indicating that using a time-averaged error as model bias is not optimal. A new model bias estimation scheme of the biweight mean is introduced. Through minimizing the negative influence of singular errors, this scheme can obtain a more accurate model bias estimation and improve the BREM forecast skill. The application of the biweight mean in the bias calculation of SUP also resulted in improved skill. The results indicate that the modification of multi-model ensemble schemes through this bias estimation method is feasible.  相似文献   

Upgrading and testing the 3D reconstruction of gamma-ray air showers as observed with an array of Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes     

《Astroparticle Physics》2010,32(6):421-430

Stereoscopic arrays of Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes allow to reconstruct gamma-ray-induced showers in three dimensions, which offers several advantages: direct access to the shower parameters in space and straightforward calorimetric measurement of the incident energy. In addition, correlations between the different images of the same shower are taken into account. An analysis method based on a simple 3D-model of electromagnetic showers was recently implemented in the framework of the H.E.S.S. experiment. In the present article, the method is completed by an additional quality criterion, which reduces the background contamination by a factor of about 2 in the case of extended sources, while keeping gamma-ray efficiency at a high level. On the other hand, the dramatic flares of the blazar PKS 2155-304 in July 2006, which provided H.E.S.S. data with an almost pure gamma-ray sample, offered the unique opportunity of a precision test of the 3D-reconstruction method as well as of the H.E.S.S. simulations used in its calibration. An agreement at a few percent level is found between data and simulations for the distributions of all 3D shower parameters.  相似文献   

沿海地区地下水模拟优化管理模型   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

高玉芳  陈耀登  张展羽 《水科学进展》2010,21(5):622-627

针对中国一些沿海地区地下水超采及由此带来的海水入侵问题,将地表水补给、抽水量及地下水位等相嵌在一起,建立了沿海地区地下水模拟优化管理模型。将人工鱼群算法和基于MODFLOW2000的变密度地下水流及溶质运移模型耦合起来,对沿海地区地下水模拟优化管理模型进行求解。以山东省威海市节水示范区为例,验证模型的有效性和可靠性。结果表明,10、11、12月份抽水量最大,以后至第2年5月份依次是减少的;从区域分布上看,在临海区域1号井处抽水量是3500～1120m3/月,在其它井处是6540～2920m3/月;与现行方案相比,增加总有效供水1990m3,地下水平均水位升高0.29m,海水入侵问题能够得到解决。计算结果合理可行,为沿海地区地下水资源的科学管理和持续利用提供可靠依据。  相似文献   

Relation between temperature changes of the mid-upper troposphere over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance in the twentieth century     

Yong Wang  Qi-Long Miao  Chong-Yi E  Jian-Kang Han  Yuan-Yuan Ding 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2010,60(6):1257-1266

The δ¹⁸O data obtained from an 18.7 m ice core drilled in Chongce Ice Cap at an elevation of 6,530 m a.s.l. in the West Kunlun Mountains on the northern Tibetan Plateau show a strong correlation with the summer temperature of the middle to upper troposphere over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. Based on this, the δ¹⁸O record can be used as a proxy of the June–September mean temperature of the mid-upper troposphere (MUT) from 1903 to 1992. The time span of the ice core record is much longer than the meteorological data available only after 1948. Using the empirical mode decomposition method (EMD), the δ¹⁸O record is decomposed into various frequency components and compared with the solar irradiance variations of the same period. The results show that (1) The June–September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes is completely decomposed into four IMF (intrinsic mode function) components and an increasing trend. (2) Solar irradiance is decomposed into the Schwabe cycle, the Hale cycle, the Gleissberg cycle, and an increasing trend. (3) The correlation coefficients between the June and September mean temperatures of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance on the longer timescales (at least more than 11-year) show the significant correlations; their phase changes are basically identical in general, and (4) the 11-year Schwabe cycle exists in the June–September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes during most of the time from 1903 to 1992, and only in the two high-temperature phases (1929–1944 and from 1975 to the present) may global warming disturb this relation. A full understanding of this phenomenon would shed insight into the potential consequence of global warming on the MUT.  相似文献   

Cassini图像中受散射光影响的7颗土星近环内卫星的天体测量          下载免费PDF全文

王志强  刘梦琪  张庆丰  吴林朋  欧钊杰  李燕  李展 《天文学报》2023,64(6):69

卡西尼号探测器携带了光学成像科学子系统(ISS: Imaging Science Subsystem), 在2004--2017年间拍摄了一些土星内卫星的图像. 部分图像中土星内卫星非常靠近土星环, 观测对象受土星环散射光影响导致测量精度差, 甚至无法测量. 由此提出一种适用于这类图像的背景消除算法, 可对受土星光环散射光影响的土星内卫星进行测量. 归算了7颗近环内卫星(土卫十(Janus)、土卫十一(Epimetheus)、土卫十五(Atlas)、土卫十六(Prometheus)、土卫十七(Pandora)、土卫三十二(Methone)和土卫四十九(Anthe))的70张ISS图像, 并与不消除散射光的方法进行了比较. 结果显示, 该方法至少可以提高43%的精度. 和喷气推进实验室的土星卫星历表\lk SAT415相比, 测量得到的赤经和赤纬方向的残差均值分别为0.72km和2.26km, 标准差分别为10.99km和11.36km.  相似文献   

日本海中尺度涡旋时空变化特征研究     

杨霄  张永垂  夏长水  董昌明  胡楠  汪浩笛  陈诗尧 《海洋学报》2022,44(6):22-36

本文利用1993–2019年基于海表面高度异常的涡旋数据集和高度计数据统计分析了日本海区域中尺度涡旋的大小、极性、生命周期、振幅、传播等表面特征的时空变化规律。27年间,共探测到1 429个涡旋,气旋和反气旋数量基本相当,其中气旋675个,反气旋754个。两种极性涡旋均具有较强的季节变化:秋季较多,冬季次之,春季最少。郁陵盆地、大和盆地等为涡旋多发区域呈现西南–东北向带状分布。其中,南部海域反气旋占优,靠近津轻海峡的北部海域气旋占优。西部和南部受东韩暖流和对马暖流的驱动,涡旋移动方向与流场基本一致,北部涡旋与黎曼寒流以及副极地锋流有关。研究表明,动力学不稳定是涡旋在秋冬季大量产生的重要原因。此外,半封闭盆地、局地流场以及复杂的海气相互作用等都可能会对涡旋的产生和消亡造成一定影响。  相似文献   

Three-dimensional mesoscale eddy identification and tracking algorithm based on pressure anomalies     

Yuan  Liming  Tian  Fenglin  Xu  Suqin  Zhou  Chun  Chen  Jie 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2021,39(6):2153-2166

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology - The Kuroshio Extension (KE) is one of the most eddy-energetic regions in the global ocean. However, most mesoscale eddy studies in the region are focused on...  相似文献   

协同多时相波谱特征的不透水面信息级联提取     

帅艳民  马现伟  曲歌  邵聪颖  刘涛  刘守民  黄华兵  谷玲霄  拉提帕•吐尔汗江  梁继  李玲 《地球信息科学学报》2021,23(1):171-186

不透水面作为反应城市表征变化和区域城镇化的重要技术指标,其位置、图斑大小、空间分布等信息在地表水热循环和能量平衡等领域被广泛需求。传统方法大都基于单一时相信息提取不透水面,而忽略多时相所蕴含的丰富信息。因此,本文提出多时相信息融合的不透水面级联提取方法,利用Landsat-8 OLI遥感影像分析归一化植被指数（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI）、改进的归一化水体指数（Modified Normalized Difference Water Index, MNDWI）和归一化建筑指数（Normalized Difference Building Index, NDBI）年内时序变化特点和典型地物间多时相波谱曲线的协同特征,并归纳不透水面多时相变化规律;再根据先验知识所获取的有效地表信息,进行多时相分级提取不透水面信息。此外,基于实地考察数据和同期2 m GF-1遥感影像屏幕数字化生成30 m不透水面图斑,进行精度验证、分析和对比单时相、四季相及多时相3种时序情况下的提取精度。结果表明：单时相提取不透水面总精度最低,四季相提取精度优于单时相,而多时相提取精度最高（精度可达93.66%,Kappa系数为0.81）。本方法在偏远城镇不透水面的有效识别中显露潜在优势,可为不透水面提取方法融合时序波谱特征提供新思路。  相似文献   

基于卷积神经网络的ICESat-2光子点云去噪分类     

陆大进  黎东  朱笑笑  聂胜  周国清  张兴忆  杨超 《地球信息科学学报》2021,23(11):2086-2095

ICESat-2（Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2）是美国NASA（National Aeronautics and Space Administration）在2018年发射的激光测高卫星,其上搭载的激光测高系统ATLAS（Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System）采用微脉冲多波束光子计数激光雷达系统,因其低能耗、高探测灵敏度、高重复频率的特性极大改善了沿轨采样密度,但也使获取的数据中包含大量的噪声,如何有效实现光子点云去噪分类成为后续应用的关键,也是当前研究的热点和难点,为此本文提出一种基于卷积神经网络的光子点云去噪和分类算法。首先将光子点云按照沿轨和高程方向划分格网,去除明显的噪声光子,并将每个粗信号光子点栅格化为影像;然后基于少量样本构建的卷积神经网络分类模型实现光子点云精去噪和分类;最后利用机载激光雷达数据进行验证,并与ATL08产品的去噪分类结果进行对比。结果表明,对于裸地和森林区域,卷积神经网络算法均能有效去除噪声光子,特别对于森林区域,可同时实现去噪和分类;其中,裸地区域地表计算的R²和RMSE分别为1.0和0.72 m,森林区域地表和树冠计算的R²分别为1.0和0.70, RMSE分别为1.11 m和4.99 m。本文利用深度学习算法实现光子点云去噪分类,在裸地和森林区域均取得了较好的结果,为后续光子点云数据处理提供了参考。  相似文献   

Classifying and mapping the urban transition in Vietnam     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2014

The urban transition almost always involves wrenching social adjustment as small agricultural communities are forced to adjust rapidly to industrial ways of life. Large-scale in-migration of young people, usually from poor regions, creates enormous demand and expectations for community and social services. One immediate problem planners face in approaching this challenge is how to define, differentiate, and map what is rural, urban, and transitional (i.e., peri-urban). This project established an urban classification for Vietnam by using national census and remote sensing data to identify and map the smallest administrative units for which data are collected as rural, peri-urban, urban, or urban core. We used both natural and human factors in the quantitative model: income from agriculture, land under agriculture and forests, houses with modern sanitation, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. Model results suggest that in 2006, 71% of Vietnam's 10,891 communes were rural, 18% peri-urban, 3% urban, and 4% urban core. Of the communes our model classified as peri-urban, 61% were classified by the Vietnamese government as rural. More than 7% of Vietnam's land area can be classified as peri-urban and approximately 13% of its population (more than 11 million people) lives in peri-urban areas. We identified and mapped three types of peri-urban places: communes in the periphery of large towns and cities; communes along highways; and communes associated with provincial administration or home to industrial, energy, or natural resources projects (e.g., mining). We validated this classification based on ground observations, analyses of multi-temporal night-time lights data, and an examination of road networks. The model provides a method for rapidly assessing the rural–urban nature of places to assist planners in identifying rural areas undergoing rapid change with accompanying needs for investments in building, sanitation, road infrastructure, and government institutions.  相似文献