基于小波神经网络耦合模型对云南星云湖富营养化气象驱动因子的分析     

潘佳敏  冯禹昊  谢平  方精云 《湖泊科学》2021,33(2):428-438

气象因子是影响湖泊富营养化的重要因素,而湖泊富营养化对人群健康、生态系统和社会经济等均有负面影响.本文基于统计资料及遥感数据,结合Morlet小波分析和BP多层前馈神经网络(BP神经网络)构建了不同时间尺度下的小波神经网络耦合模型,分析了19862011年云南星云湖水华强度变化与月降雨量、月平均气温、月平均风速、月日照...  相似文献   

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISWRidge Relationships     

Cheng-Wu CHEN  Hsien-Chueh Peter YANG  Chen-Yuan CHEN  Alex Kung-Hsiung CHANG  Tsung-Hao CHEN   《中国海洋工程》2008,22(1):43-56

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p 〈0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to cheek the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height （X1 ） and potential energy （X2 ） significantly impact （p 〈 0. 0001 ） the amplitude-based refleeted rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all 〉 0.05 （0.2839, 0.3438, respectively）. That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height （ X1 ） and potential energy （X2） can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model. Investigation of 6 predictive powers （ R2, Max-rescaled R^2, Sorners＇ D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively） indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.  相似文献   

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Hsien-Chueh Peter YANG  Alex Kung-Hsiung CHANG  Tsung-Hao CHEN 《中国海洋工程》2008,22(1)

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.  相似文献   

弱流场调制下的海面微波散射模拟研究     

吕伟艳  赵朝方  杜涛 《海洋科学》2008,32(7):57-61

根据海面微波散射的多尺度模型以及波流相互作用理论,对一维弱流场调制下的海面微波散射截面进行了数值模拟。结果表明,利用数值方法直接求解波作用量方程获得的海浪调制谱并结合多尺度模型可以较好地模拟弱流场引起的雷达散射截面的变化。内波等海洋现象调制了海浪谱,使得雷达散射截面反映出这些海洋特征,整个调制过程的模拟对于分析这些海洋现象并更好地利用其雷达数据具有重要意义。  相似文献   

抽水和建筑荷载双重作用下的地面沉降模型   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

赵慧  钱会  李渊  彭建兵 《地球科学与环境学报》2008,30(1):57-60

依据含水层质量守恒原理,推导了非固结地层在建筑荷载作用下的地面沉降机理模型,并将其与Jacob假定下抽水引起的地面沉降弹性模型相比较,结果发现两种模型的机理表达式完全一致,仅区别于水动力原因或实质的不同.在同一坐标系中,根据线性叠加原理,抽水沉降漏斗和荷载沉降漏斗可能都落在地下水位降落漏斗内.假定两者为相互独立事件,给出了抽水和建筑荷载双重作用下的地面沉降模型,表明其如果以水位降深为制约因子,则可以对水动力实质完全不同的两种沉降过程进行线性叠加计算.  相似文献   

Kalman 滤波几种异常检验法     

聂建亮  吴富梅 《地球科学与环境学报》2008,30(2):204-208

为了检测动态导航观测异常和动力学模型异常,采用预测残差构造观测误差和动力学模型误差整体检验法,对观测异常可分别采用以模型为准的观测异常检验、以当前历元可靠观测为基准的异常检验或以Kalman滤波估值为基础的异常检验的方法;对于动力学模型异常检验,可以分别采用状态不符值检验法、以状态参数Kalman滤波估值为基础的动力学模型异常检验或以可靠观测为基础的动力学模型误差整体检验的方法.分析了以上几种检验方法的特点,并用实测数据进行了检验.结果表明:在观测异常或动力学模型异常处,异常检验对导航数据精度有一定程度地提高.  相似文献   

变形观测数据时间序列建模中的几个问题   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王卫  杨志强  杨建华  王滕军 《地球科学与环境学报》2008,30(2):214-217

针对在变形观测数据时间序列建模中所遇到的问题,对变形观测数据时间序列建模中的数据预处理、模型选择、模型定阶与系统稳定性检验等问题进行了研究,提出了分析数据趋势项提取的AR模型方法,编写了C语言计算程序,实现了样条函数插值方法、周期项提取的差值法,建立ARMA分析模型,对变形预测数据与实际观测数据进行了比较.结果表明:该方法的正确性以及时间序列分析方法在变形数据处理与分析中的适用性与可行性.  相似文献   

地震云          下载免费PDF全文

《山东国土资源》2008,24(7)

地震云是指地震即将发生时,震区上空出现的不同颜色的,如白色、灰色、橙色、橘红色等带状云。其分布方向同震中垂直,一般出现于早晨和傍晚。据目测估计,地震云的高度可达6000米以上,相当于气象云中高云类的高度。  相似文献   

海岸带边坡防浪林消浪理论与实验研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

杨建民 《海洋通报》2008,27(2):16-21

在海岸边坡上种植防浪林是一种新的护岸形式,应用理论分析和模型实验对其进行了初步研究.建立波浪在斜坡上传播的控制方程及边界条件,应用摄动理论求解非线性解,得到了一阶精确解和二阶近似解.在模型实验中,确定几何比尺为 1∶10,选取桧柏树枝作为防浪林模型,根据量纲分析,确定的主要影响因素是海岸边坡坡度、波高、波周期、水深与防浪林树宽.实验结果表明,防浪林宽度与岸坡坡度对消浪效果影响较大.  相似文献   

江东大桥建设对钱塘江水动力的影响     

鲁海燕  史英标  杨元平 《海洋学研究》2008,26(2):20-26

应用二维水流数学模型模拟了江东大桥建设前后大范围的流场,比较了建桥前后水位、流速、流向等水动力因子的变化,评价了大桥建设对工程区域水动力的影响,并与物理模型试验的结果进行对比,分析了结果的合理性。研究成果为大桥的设计和管理提供了技术依据。  相似文献