电离层TEC的预测模型   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李秀海  郭达志  张随甲 《测绘工程》2010,19(1):5-8

电离层总电子含量（TEC）的精确预报对提高GNSS导航精度,保障无线电空间远程通讯具有重要作用。分析了IGS发布的电离层格网点总电子含量（TEC）的时间序列特点,基于时间序列分析理论,以AR模型对格网点TEC随机时间序列平稳化后建模和预报。实例分析表明,研究的预报技术和方法是可行的。  相似文献   

Fuzzy MCDM-based GIS model for subsea oil pipeline route optimization: An integrated approach     

Abdul-Lateef Balogun  Abdul-Nasir Matori  Adekunle Isa Hamid-Mosaku  Dano Umar Lawal  Imtiaz Ahmed Chandio 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2017,35(7):961-969

Proper pipeline route selection is an integral component of a typical oil exploration and transportation project. Improperly selected routes could have severe consequences including pipe failures, oil spillage, and environmental disasters. Consequently, technologies like geographic information systems (GIS) are increasingly being used to facilitate the oil pipeline route selection procedure—especially for onshore routing projects. Surprisingly, not much has been documented on the application of GIS to offshore pipeline routing. With recent discoveries on the merits of offshore oil exploration, it is necessary to extend the analytical capabilities of GIS to the unique offshore domain. However, concerns have been raised regarding the limitations of GIS in accurately prioritizing diverse selection criteria in typical multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems like route selection. Consequently, this paper addresses the offshore/subsea pipeline routing constraint using a hybrid decision support system (DSS), which integrates a GIS and fuzzy logic-based approximate reasoning (AR) models for optimal performance. The resultant spatial decision support system (SDSS) was successfully applied to a case study in Malaysia. The AR algorithm calculated the significance level of the multiple criteria using various fuzzy linguistic variables and membership functions. The aggregated priority ranking from different pipeline routing experts showed that the overall influence of the environmental criteria (61.4%) significantly exceeded that of other equally important criteria in the study area. These rankings were inputted into the SDSS to simulate various probable routes. Final results accurately highlighted an optimal route, which places a premium on the protection of environmental features in the subsea study area—in alignment with the preferences of majority of the experts.  相似文献   

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秦臻  高井祥  王坚 《大地测量与地球动力学》2010,30(5):144-148

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城市供水管网健康监测与诊断(Ⅰ)——用户流量的预测     

梁建文 《地震工程与工程振动》2010,30(4)

供水管网运行状态的准确把握对供水管网的健康监测和健康诊断至关重要,而供水管网运行状态准确把握的关键则在于对用户流量的准确把握。本文提出了供水管网用户流量预测的两个方法,EMD分解与自回归模型相结合的方法和逐步回归方法与自回归模型相结合的方法,文中通过一实际供水管网中某用户流量的预测分析并与实际监测值的比较,验证了两个方法的有效性。研究使得城市供水管网健康的在线监测和在线诊断成为可能。  相似文献   

沉降观测AR模型的不确定性平差算法     

邹渤  宋迎春  唐争气  谢雪梅 《大地测量与地球动力学》2016,36(8):686-688

在沉降观测过程中,获取的数据经常存在着不确定性,影响参数估计的可靠性和沉降预测的准确性。把不确定度作为参数融入AR模型,建立基于AR模型的不确定性平差模型。依据残差中不确定性传播规律,利用min-max估计准则,使得残差中的最大不确定度达到最小,从一个新的角度探讨不确定性观测数据的处理方法,得到基于不确定性算法的AR模型,扩展了现有误差理论。通过沉降实例进一步验证算法的优越性。  相似文献   

Predicting socioeconomic conditions from satellite sensor data in rural developing countries: A case study using female literacy in Assam,India     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2013

Social data from census and household surveys provide key information for monitoring the status of populations, but the data utility can be limited by temporal gaps between surveys. Recent studies have pointed to the potential for remotely sensed satellite sensor data to be used as proxies for social data. Such an approach could provide valuable information for the monitoring of populations between enumeration periods. Field observations in Assam, north-east India suggested that socioeconomic conditions could be related to patterns in the type and abundance of local land cover dynamics prompting the development of a more formal approach. This research tested if environmental data derived from remotely sensed satellite sensor data could be used to predict a socioeconomic outcome using a generalised autoregressive error (GAR_err) model. The proportion of female literacy from the 2001 Indian National Census was used as an indicator of socioeconomic conditions. A significant positive correlation was found with woodland and a significant negative correlation with winter cropland (i.e., additional cropping beyond the normal cropping season). The dependence of female literacy on distance to nearest road was very small. The GAR_err model reduced residual spatial autocorrelation and revealed that the logistic regression model over-estimated the significance of the explanatory covariates. The results are promising, while also revealing the complexities of population–environment interactions in rural, developing world contexts. Further research should explore the prediction of socioeconomic conditions using fine spatial resolution satellite sensor data and methods that can account for such complexities.  相似文献   

AR模型在大地电磁测深资料处理中的应用     

张春虹  张刚 《地球物理学进展》2013,28(3):1227-1233

大地电磁测深资料数据采集过程中,由于温度、湿度等对仪器的影响或GPS搜星不正常,采集到的数据有时会出现时间序列跳帧或缺失现象.针对这一问题,本文将基于无激励AR(p)模型预测数据的原理引入大地电磁测深数据处理中.根据已知序列确定AR(p)模型阶数以及模型参数,建立正确的预测模型对缺失数据进行预测,并对比经过预测后的数据与实际样本数据的频谱,表明AR(p)预测模型可以解决原始资料的不连续性问题,提高了大地电磁测深野外资料的利用率.  相似文献   

Hydro-climatic variability and forest fires in Mexico’s northern temperate forests     

José Návar  Liliana Lizárraga-Mendiola 《Geofísica Internacional》2013,52(1):5-20

Global warming is likely modifying the hydrological cycle of forested watersheds. This report set as objectives to: a) assess the hydrological variables interception loss, I, potential and actual evapo-transpiration, E, Et, runoff, Q, and soil moisture content, θ; b) evaluate whether these variables are presenting consistent trends or oscillations that can be associated to global warming or climate variability; and c) relate θ to the number of wildfires and the burned area in Durango, Mexico. A mass balance approach estimated daily variables of the water cycle using sub-models for I and Et to calculate Q and θ for a time series from 1945 to 2007. Regression and auto-regressive and moving averaging (ARIMA) techniques evaluated the statistical significance of trends. The cumulative standardized z value magnified and ARIMA models projected statistically similar monthly and annual time series data of all variables of the water cycle. Regression analysis and ARIMA models showed monthly and annual P, I, E, and Et, Q, and θ do not follow consistent up or downward linear tendencies over time with statistical significance; they rather follow oscillations that could be adequately predicted by ARIMA models (r² ≥ 0.70). There was a consistent statistical association (p ≤ 0.05) of θ with the number of wildfires and the area burned regardless of the different spatial scales used in evaluating these variables. The analysis shows seasonal variability is increasing over time as magnifying pulses of dryness and wetness, which may be the response of the hydrological cycle to climate change. Further research must center on using longer time series data, testing seasonal variability with additional statistical analysis, and incorporating new variables in the analysis.  相似文献   

对IPCC AR6报告中有关农业系统结论的解读     

段居琦  袁佳双  徐新武  居辉 《气候变化研究进展》2022,18(4):422-432

与IPCC第五次评估报告相比,第六次评估报告（AR6）有关农业的评估对象由作物生产系统延伸到粮食供应链系统,气候变化对作物生产不利影响的证据在加强。气候变化改变了作物适宜种植区,使中高纬度及温带地区作物种植界限向高纬度、高海拔地区推移。人为引起的气候变暖阻碍了作物产量的增长,地表O₃浓度增加使作物产量降低,CH₄排放加剧了这种不利影响。气候变化加剧作物病虫草害,极端气候事件高发加剧了粮食不安全,推升了国际粮食价格。适应措施有助于减缓气候变化不利影响,基于自然的适应方案在增强作物生产系统气候恢复力和保障粮食安全方面具有较高潜力。从保障国家粮食安全和重大战略需求出发,AR6报告对我国农业应对气候变化相关工作的启示如下：需要高度重视气候变化背景下作物种植适宜区转变与种植带北移的重要战略价值,合理规划农业生产布局;加强农业气象灾害和病虫害防治体系和能力建设,保障粮食生产稳定性;关注气候变化对国际作物生产和谷物贸易的影响,统筹国内、国际市场粮食资源,保障粮食安全;推进农业温室气体减排与作物生产高效协同,为实现国家减排目标做出贡献。  相似文献   

Interpretation of IPCC AR6 on buildings北大核心CSCD     

白泉  胡姗  谷立静 《气候变化研究进展》2022,18(5):557-566

IPCC于2022年4月正式发布了第六次评估报告(AR6)第三工作组(WGⅢ)报告《气候变化2022:减缓气候变化》,该报告以已发布的第一和第二工作组报告作为基础,评估了各领域减缓气候变化的进展。报告的第九章建筑章节系统全面地评估了全球建筑领域的温室气体排放现状、趋势和驱动因素,综述并评估了建筑减缓气候变化的措施、潜力、成本和政策。报告主要结论认为,全球建筑领域有可能在2050年实现温室气体净零排放,但如果政策措施执行不力,将有可能在建筑领域形成长达几十年的高碳锁定效应。报告的主要结论将成为全球建筑领域应对气候变化行动的重要参考,对于我国建筑领域实现碳达峰、碳中和目标也有非常重要的借鉴意义。  相似文献