Brittleness index predictions from Lower Barnett Shale well-log data applying an optimized data matching algorithm at various sampling densities     

David A.Wood 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(6):444-457

The capability of accurately predicting mineralogical brittleness index(BI)from basic suites of well logs is desir-able as it provides a useful indicator of the fracability of tight formations.Measuring mineralogical components in rocks is expensive and time consuming.However,the basic well log curves are not well correlated with BI so correlation-based,machine-learning methods are not able to derive highly accurate BI predictions using such data.A correlation-free,optimized data-matching algorithm is configured to predict BI on a supervised basis from well log and core data available from two published wells in the Lower Barnett Shale Formation(Texas).This transparent open box(TOB)algorithm matches data records by calculating the sum of squared errors be-tween their variables and selecting the best matches as those with the minimum squared errors.It then applies optimizers to adjust weights applied to individual variable errors to minimize the root mean square error(RMSE)between calculated and predicted(BI).The prediction accuracy achieved by TOB using just five well logs(Gr,pb,Ns,Rs,Dt)to predict BI is dependent on the density of data records sampled.At a sampling density of about one sample per 0.5 ft BI is predicted with RMSE～0.056 and R2～0.790.At a sampling density of about one sample per 0.1 ft BI is predicted with RMSE～0.008 and R2～0.995.Adding a stratigraphic height index as an additional(sixth)input variable method improves BI prediction accuracy to RMSE～0.003 and R2～0.999 for the two wells with only 1 record in 10,000 yielding a BI prediction error of＞±0.1.The model has the potential to be applied in an unsupervised basis to predict BI from basic well log data in surrounding wells lacking mineralogical measure-ments but with similar lithofacies and burial histories.The method could also be extended to predict elastic rock properties in and seismic attributes from wells and seismic data to improve the precision of brittleness index and fracability mapping spatially.  相似文献   

基于WACCM+DART的临近空间SABER和MLS臭氧观测同化试验研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

敬文琪  王业桂  崔园园  蔡其发  兰伟仁 《大气科学》2019,43(2):233-250

本研究在WACCM+DART（Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model,Data Assimilation Research Test-Bed）临近空间资料同化预报系统中加入SABER（Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry）和MLS（Microwave Limb Sounder）臭氧观测同化接口,并以2016年2月一次平流层爆发性增温（SSW）过程为模拟个例进行了SABER和MLS臭氧观测同化试验,得出以下结论:同化SABER和MLS臭氧体积浓度观测得出的WACCM+DART臭氧分析场能够较真实反映SSW期间北极上空平流层臭氧廓线随时间的演变特征,且与ERA5（Fifth Generation of ECMWF Reanalyses）再分析资料描述的臭氧变化特征具有很好的一致性;基于SABER和MLS臭氧观测的WACCM臭氧6 h预报检验表明同化臭氧观测对臭氧分析和预报误差的改善效果主要体现在南半球高纬平流层和北半球中高纬平流层中上层-中间层底部;基于ERA5再分析资料的WACCM+DART分析场检验表明同化SABER和MLS臭氧体积浓度资料可在提高北半球高纬地区上平流层-中间层底部臭氧场分析质量的同时减小该地区上平流层-中间层底部温度场和中间层底部纬向风场的分析误差;基于MLS臭氧资料的臭氧中期预报检验表明相对控制试验同化SABER和MLS臭氧体积浓度资料能更好改善0~5 d下平流层和中间层底部臭氧的预报效果。  相似文献   

2015年济南地区雾霾天气过程大气物理量特征初步分析     

崔雅琴  张佃国  王洪  刘泉  张骞  张洪生 《大气科学》2019,43(4):705-718

文中对比分析了2015年29个雾、霾及雾霾混合天气过程中,章丘探空站L波段探空雷达和山东省气象局院内德国14通道地基微波辐射计观测的温度资料。对观测数据实施了质量控制,检验了精度和可信度,统计分析了宏观物理参量特征和日变化规律。针对雾、霾及雾霾天气过程各选取了一个个例进行分析,分析了大气中PM_2.5、PM₁₀、SO₂、NO₂、O₃、CO含量的变化情况,分析了相对湿度、液态水路径和综合水汽含量等的变化情况。结果表明:两种观测数据一致性较好,拟合优度高于0.97;贴地逆温层存在一定的季节变化,悬垂逆温层存在一定的差异,逆温层的变化、污染参量变化与雾霾的形成有密切关系;不同天气背景对大气物理参量有较大的影响,PM₁₀、AQI（空气质量指数）和CO均在相同时间段出现峰值,有明显的起伏;CO峰值雾霾天气中尤为明显,由早到晚随时间峰值逐渐增大,雾天和霾天峰值较小,雾霾天气明显大于雾天或霾天。  相似文献   

高时空分辨率三维风场在强对流天气临近预报中的融合应用研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杨璐  陈敏  陈明轩  高峰  秦睿  宋林烨  程丛兰 《气象学报》2019,77(2):243-255

以业务应用为目标,开展高时、空分辨率三维风场在强对流天气临近预报中的融合应用研究。运用北京快速更新多尺度分析和预报系统集成子系统（RMAPS-IN,Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Integration）,对雷达四维变分分析系统（VDRAS）30 min临近预报的高时、空分辨率三维风场作为数据源与自动气象站风场观测进行快速融合处理。结果表明,以VDRAS临近预报风场取代数值模式预报场作为融合初猜场后形成的分析结果对于风场有明显的改善:（1）长时间序列客观检验结果表明,地面10 m高风场U/V分量绝对误差分别为0.05和0.06 m/s。实时融合对未来预报的影响随着预报时效的延长,U/V分量的绝对误差不断增大。（2）对于11个强对流个例,地面10 m高风场风速均方根误差降低0.3 m/s,风向均方根误差降低13°;边界层三维风场,风速均方根误差降低0.8 m/s,风向均方根误差降低10°。平原站点融合以后风速、风向预报效果有较大改善,山区站点融合以后改善相对较小。（3）通过对2017年7月20日暴雨和7月7日雷暴大风个例的详细分析,发现融合基于雷达资料四维变分同化获得的高分辨率临近预报风场对各对流系统中的中尺度结构特征给出了更加细致准确的描述。   相似文献   

夏季亚洲阻塞高压识别及其对中国东北气候异常的可能影响:不同再分析资料对比     

刘刚  徐士琦  廉毅 《气象学报》2019,77(2):303-314

基于阻塞高压（阻高）客观识别方法,利用1979-2016年夏季（6-8月）NCEP-Ⅰ、NCEP-Ⅱ逐日再分析资料和ERA-interim逐6 h再分析资料对识别结果进行对比分析;并以D类（130°-160°E）阻高为例,讨论其对6月中国东北地区气候的可能影响。结果表明:NCEP-Ⅰ和NCEP-Ⅱ再分析资料对阻高活动天数、发生频次及年代际变化的识别结果差异较小,而ERA-interim与前两种资料的结果差别较大。3种再分析资料下,夏季各类阻高活动天数均与500 hPa高度场存在相应的显著相关区,且形态相近。但前两种资料对于各类阻高的表征结果较为一致,而ERA-interim再分析资料对各类阻高面积和范围的表征偏小。6月D类阻高活动日数与东北地区气温和降水关系密切,D类阻高活跃年,大气环流以经向型为主,东北地区低层低温、暖平流,高层高温、冷平流的结构指示大气层结不稳定,且东北上空为异常低压环流控制,上升气流较强,有利于6月东北地区出现低温多雨天气。鄂霍次克海地区是6月罗斯贝波的重要来源地之一,而6月D类阻高的形成可能与海-陆温差有关。   相似文献   

第三次国土调查城镇村内部细化调查方法研究     

廖丹霞  翁进 《国土资源导刊(湖南)》2021,18(1):33-36

基于第三次国土调查城镇村内部细化调查的工作要求和数据基础,梳理了城镇村调查边界划定、城镇村土地利用框架构建、城镇村土地利用图斑转绘、城镇村土地利用类型判定、外业补充调查等城镇村内部细化调查环节;归纳了1:2000基础地理信息数据、不动产登记数据、基础性地理国情监测数据等已有调查成果在各调查环节的数据转换利用方式,为城镇...  相似文献   

MODIS遥感数据格式及使用方法综合分析     

赵文化  单海滨  钟儒祥 《气象与环境科学》2007,30(1):44-48

针对当前MODIS遥感资料推广应用中数据产品使用者和开发者在实际工作中经常遇到数据格式和计算方法方面的问题,分析了MODIS遥感资料的数据格式,以及如何使用定标后的1B数据计算地球视场的光谱反射率和辐射率进而生成各种气象和环境监测应用产品,并给出了一个数据处理应用实例.  相似文献   

The role of water mass dynamics in controlling bacterial abundance and production in the middle Adriatic Sea     

Solić M  Krstulović N  Vilibić I  Kuspilić G  Sestanović S  Santić D  Ordulj M 《Marine environmental research》2008,65(5):388-404

Month-to-month fluctuations in the abundance of bacteria and heterotrophic nanoflagellates (HNF) and bacterial production, as well as various chemical (nutrients, oxygen) and physical (salinity, temperature) parameters were analysed at a station located in the open middle Adriatic Sea during one decade (1997-2006). Being influenced by both coastal waters and open Adriatic circulation in the surface layer, and by the deep Adriatic water masses in the deep layers (100 m), this station is quite suitable for detecting the environmental changes occurring in the open Adriatic Sea with respect to the circulation of its water masses and their long-term changes and anomalies. Multivariate methods were used to identify seasonal and inter-annual changes of the investigated parameters, associating observed changes to the changes in Adriatic water masses and circulation regimes. The analyses showed that bacterial abundance and production were controlled by different water mass dynamics during 1997-2001 compared to 2002-2006 period, particularly noticeable in different seasonal patterns of biological parameters. The interplay between North Adriatic Dense Water (NAdDW) and Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW) resulted in a change in the available nutrients (NAdDW is poor in orthophosphates), and as a consequence different bacterial abundance and production. A few periods were examined in detail, such as 2004, when LIW inflow was particularly strong and was accompanied by an increase of bacterial and HNF abundances, as well as of bacterial production.  相似文献   

Data-based forecasting of beach volumes on monthly to yearly timescales   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Howard N. Southgate   《Coastal Engineering》2008,55(12):1005-1015

Data-based methods for forecasting beach volumes are tested using ground-measured bathymetry from Duck, North Carolina, comprising 26 profiles, 20 year duration and one-month resolution. Derived beach volume time series show weak seasonal and strong event signals. The forecasting methods used are: Holt–Winters (standard and modified), three types of linear regression, and a default forecast in which the latest measurement persists unchanged into the future. Improved forecast accuracies are obtained by two modifications to Holt–Winters, involving an autocorrelation correction and long-term trend-damping, and by smoothing the fitting data using running medians or wavelet approximations. Beach volume forecasts are tested mainly at monthly intervals up to 12 months ahead, with further tests at up to 36 months ahead. Overall, modified Holt–Winters performs best and the default forecast second-best. With an added artificial seasonal signal, modified Holt–Winters outperforms the other methods more substantially.  相似文献   

Discrimination of spurious self-correlation in nondimensionalized analyses of fluid dynamical data     

Yoshiaki Toba  Naoya Suzuki  Satoru Komori 《Journal of Oceanography》2008,64(3):393-397

Nondimensionalization of variables enables us to treat experiment data much more simply and efficiently by decreasing the number of variables. In some cases, trivial conclusions (which Kenney, 1982, called spurious self-correlation) result from a formal application of dimensional analyses. In contrast, in some cases fully significant conclusions can be derived. We first discuss how to construct nondimensional variables retaining the physical meanings of variables. We then propose simple and efficient methods, especially the use of “spurious triangle (SpT)”, to discriminate between significant conclusions and spurious self-correlations in the analysis of nondimensionalized variables.  相似文献