1983年菏泽5.9级地震前后沂水泉氡的变化   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张昭栋  高玉斌 《地震》1993,(6):1-6

沂水泉位于山东省沂水一汤头断裂带上。多年来的观测分析表明,影响沂水泉氡值变化的最大干扰是降雨。由于这种干扰存在着“记忆”滞后影响,所以用一般的相关分析难以将这种影响排除干净。本文对最小二乘法为建立模型的判据,用动态灰箱分析法拟合并推估观测系统的变化。在分析中用了四个状态变量：长趋势成分Ｌ（ｔ）、年周期变化成分Ｐ（ｔ）、降雨影响部分Ｒ（ｔ）和随机变化部分Ｓ（ｔ）。经过分析表明,沂水泉氡的长趋势部分１  相似文献   

Estimation for partially observed Markov processes     

M. E. Thompson  T. N. Kaseke 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1995,9(1):33-47

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.  相似文献   

二维地震观测系统合理性的论证方法     

SUN Xiao-jie LI Chao-lin WANG Li-bin REN Ri-chun LI Hai-yan ZHUANG Yi-ming LIU Ying-xin SUN Ke .Daqing Petroleum Institute  Daqing  Heilongjiang  China .Coalfield Geological  Geophysical Exploration Company of Jilin Province  Changchun  China .Coal Field Geology Bureun of Jilin Province  Changchun  China 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2006,(Z2)

已知勘查区深度范围前提下,最大炮检X和道间距ΔX,不可以太大也不可以太小,施工前能够计算出它的允许值范围。  相似文献   

基于卡尔曼滤波的时间序列影像背景估计   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘飞  张鹏林 《地理空间信息》2005,3(3):12-13

文章将卡尔曼滤波理论应用于时间序列影像的背景估计,引入衰减记忆因子解决滤波的发散问题,最终实现了对背景信号的估计。  相似文献   

一种新的综合Kalman滤波及其在星载GPS 低轨卫星定轨中的应用     

韩保民  欧吉坤  曲国庆 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2005,30(6):493-496

针对将Kalman滤波方法应用到星载GPS定轨时，由于动态噪声和观测噪声确定不准而造成滤波的发散、污染观测值造成Kalman滤波估值的扭曲及计算舍入误差可能带来协方差阵的不正定性等缺陷，提出了一种新的综合Kalman滤波方法。该方法用拟准检定法准确地探测和修正量测方程中存在的粗差；用UD分解算法克服了数值的不稳定性，改进了计算精度；用Sage自适应滤波器克服滤波器的发散。算例结果表明，这种综合卡尔曼滤波方法具有数值稳定性好、较强的自适应性和较好地削弱粗差影响等优点。  相似文献   

Parameter identification of inelastic structures under dynamic loads     

Haochuan Zhang  Greg C. Foliente  Yongmin Yang  Fai Ma 《地震工程与结构动力学》2002,31(5):1113-1130

The generalized model of differential hysteresis contains 13 control parameters with which it can curve‐fit practically any hysteretic trace. Three identification algorithms are developed to estimate the control parameters of hysteresis for different classes of inelastic structures. These algorithms are based upon the simplex, extended Kalman filter, and generalized reduced gradient methods. Novel techniques such as global search and internal constraints are incorporated to facilitate convergence and stability. Effectiveness of the devised algorithms is demonstrated through simulations of two inelastic systems with both pinching and degradation characteristics in their hysteretic traces. Owing to very modest computing requirements, these identification algorithms may become acceptable as a design tool for mapping the hysteretic traces of inelastic structures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

On the oceanic impact of a data-assimilation method in a coupled ocean-land-atmosphere model     

Clemente A. S. Tanajura  Konstantin P. Belyaev 《Ocean Dynamics》2002,52(3):123-132

 Based on the Kalman filter theory, a new data-assimilation method has been used to improve the 3-D oceanic temperature field of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) coupled general circulation model. This method is applied to assimilate surface and subsurface temperature of in situ measurements from the Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic project (PIRATA). The assimilation of the PIRATA data produces an improved representation of the thermal state of the ocean and allows a better estimation of other oceanographic quantities, like meridional heat fluxes and zonal currents. The present paper focuses on the tropical Atlantic and, in particular, it contains new reconstructed temperature profiles. One-month forecast experiments during 1999 were performed and the impact of the assimilation is discussed. Received: 24 April 2001 / Accepted: 8 March 2002  相似文献   

A Bayes filter in Friedland form for INS/GPS vector gravimetry     

B. Schaffrin  J. H. Kwon 《Geophysical Journal International》2002,149(1):64-75

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动态定位自适应滤波解的性质   总被引：21，自引：4，他引：21  

杨元喜 《测绘学报》2003,32(3):189-192

自适应抗差滤波具有控制观测异常及状态方程信息异常干扰的能力。着重研究自适应滤波解的性质。首先推导了动态自适应滤波与经典Kalman滤波解的解差，继而给出了状态向量估值的数学期望和均方误差，并分析了在自适应因子调控下解的偏差和均方误差的变化规律。由状态解向量的数学期望和均方误差的表达式可以看出，自适应因子能够控制状态异常对状态估值和均方误差的影响。  相似文献   

Generalized Coarse Graining Procedures for Flow in Porous Media     

Sabine Attinger 《Computational Geosciences》2003,7(4):253-273

This paper focuses on heterogeneous soil conductivities and on the impact their resolution has on a solution of the piezometric head equation: owing to spatial variations of the conductivity, the flow properties at larger scales differ from those found for experiments performed at smaller scales. The method of coarse graining is proposed in order to upscale the piezometric head equation on arbitrary intermediate scales. At intermediate scales large scale fluctuations of the conductivities are resolved, whereas small scale fluctuations are smoothed by a partialy spatial filtering procedure. The filtering procedure is performed in Fourier space with the aid of a low-frequency cut-off function. We derive the partially upscaled head equations. In these equations, the impact of the small scale variability is modeled by scale dependent effective conductivities which are determined by additional differential equations. Explicit results for the scale dependent conductivity values are presented in lowest order perturbation theory. The perturbation theory contributions are summed up with using a renormalisation group analysis yielding explicit results for the effective conductivity in isotropic media. Therefore, the results are also valid for highly heterogeneous media. The results are compared with numerical simulations performed by Dykaar and Kitanidis (1992). The method of coarse graining combined by a renormalisation group analysis offers a tool to derive exact and explicit expressions for resolution dependent conductivity values. It is, e.g., relevant for the interpretation of measurement data on different scales and for reduction of grid-block resolution in numerical modeling. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献