1993年世界气候异常原因及大气对东传型ENSO事件响应的诊断分析   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

井传才  曲维政  李若钝  邹娥梅  于惠苓 《热带气象学报》1995,11(1):57-65

主要用气候统计方法，按不同标准对１９４９－１９９２年影响我国（进入防线）的西太平洋台风资料进行过滤分析。确定台风突然加强的标准，在此基础上对它们进行分类，给出各类的时空分布特点及高低层平均环境场，得出的结论是（１）影响我国的突然加强的台风主要出现在每年７－１０月，并集中的南海中部，东海出现的个例减少。（２）按中心气压和近中心的最大风速变化的先后，突然加强台风可分为三类，第三类与第一、二类高低层的产  相似文献   

Statistical regression applied to borehole strain measurements data analysis     

D. H. Zou 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》1995,13(1):17-27

Summary In mining and geotechnical engineering, it is usually necessary to carry out field measurements in order to obtain information. Parameters are often measured indirectly and calculated based on certain relationships to the measured quantities. More often, the number of measurements taken is greater than the minimum required, in order to increase the reliability of results. However, some data points are less reliable than others for reasons such as measurement errors; a solution which best fits the measurement data is obtained accordingly. As a result, there is a residual or a difference between the individual quantities measured and those predicted from the best-fit solution. This brings about a question of how big a residual is acceptable for a solution to be reliable. It is also important to know whether the data point with the largest residual is the most erroneous, whether those data points with large residuals should be deleted and how many of them should be deleted. Standard deviation may provide a measure of the data divergence but it is questionable if this parameter can be used as a measure of the reliability of solution. In order to solve these problems, the author has done extensive study in this area, especially as part of geotechnical data analysis. In this paper, the statistical multiple regression method is introduced to analyse the measurement data. The method is applied to the analysis ofin situ stress measurement and can be easily adopted to analyse data from other field measurements and laboratory tests. An example is included which illustrates the analysis procedure and shows the advantages of the method.  相似文献   

On the Statistics of Wind Gusts     

F. Boettcher  CH. Renner  H.-P. Waldl  J. Peinke 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2003,108(1):163-173

Wind measurementsnear the North Seaborder of Northern Germany andvelocity measurements under localisotropic conditions of a turbulent wakebehind a cylinder are compared. It is shownthat wind gusts, measured by means ofvelocity increments, do show similar statisticsto the laboratory data if they are conditionedon an averaged wind speed value.Clear differences between the laboratory dataand the atmospheric measurements arefound for the waiting time statistics betweensuccessive gusts above acertain threshold.  相似文献   

河南省气象部门科技服务与产业统计报表处理系统     

厉玉昇  孙博阳吴艳 冶林茂 《河南气象》2004,(3):37-38

根据统计工作需要，设计和开发了河南省气象部门科技服务与产业统计报表处理系统。该系统集成了报表处理过程中所需要的各种功能，界面友好，操作简单。  相似文献   

Flood Fatalities in Australia, 1788-1996     

Lucinda Coates 《The Australian geographer》1999,30(3):391-408

Information on fatalities from flooding in Australia has been compiled from newspapers, historical accounts, and government and scientific reports. Records covering 1788 to 1996 indicate that at least 2213 persons have been killed in floods in Australia. The overall decadal death rate has decreased from 23.98 per 100 000 population in the 1800s to 0.04 per 100 000 in the 1990s. The greatest number of fatalities has occurred in New South Wales but, taking population into account, Queensland has been the most vulnerable state historically as, more recently, has been the Northern Territory. Most fatalities have occurred during February, and amongst males (80.6 per cent). The overall male:female death and death-rate ratios are both 4:1. Whereas the male:female death-rate ratio has fluctuated over time from 10:1 to 1:1, it does not approach equality. Most fatalities (38.5 per cent) have occurred through attempts to cross creeks, bridges or roads in times of flood. Another 31.5 per cent of victims were in houses-the majority awaiting rescue, or simply unaware of the flood. Of the total known deaths, work-related fatalities have accounted for 12.4 per cent, and recreational pursuits for 5.7 per cent.  相似文献   

How significant (p < 0.05) is geomorphic research?          下载免费PDF全文

Christopher J. Hutton 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(11):1559-1562

The pervasive application of the Null Hypothesis Significance Test in geomorphic research runs counter to widespread, long running, and often severe criticism of the method in the broader scientific literature. The application of the methodology typically leads to a binary separation of evidence into ‘significant’ and ‘not significant’ results based on a p‐value that is dependent on the null hypothesis being true. The method should not therefore be used to provide statistical support for substantive hypotheses, and is unsuitable for scientific inference in open systems where confirmation can only ever be partial. Alternative approaches based on Bayesian statistics can importantly be applied to measure partial support for hypotheses, conditional on the available data. Though not without their own assumptions, wider application of such methods can help facilitate a transition towards a broader approach to statistical, and in turn, scientific inference in geomorphic systems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A dependence modelling study of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island     

《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2016

The dependence between variables plays a central role in multivariate extremes. In this paper, spatial dependence of Madeira Island's rainfall data is addressed within an extreme value copula approach through an analysis of maximum annual data. The impact of altitude, slope orientation, distance between rain gauge stations and distance from the stations to the sea are investigated for two different periods of time. The results obtained highlight the influence of the island's complex topography on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island.  相似文献   

3D DEMAP数值模拟与观测实验          下载免费PDF全文

唐静  刘富波  王显祥  闫永利  马晓冰 《地球物理学报》2015,58(6):2103-2111

为推动电磁剖面(EMAP)技术向找矿勘探领域发展,本文针对密集阵列剖面(DEMAP)测量方式,利用三维积分方程法对层状介质中赋存三维地质异常体的电性结构进行了数值模拟,并在青海野马泉铁锌矿集区西部进行了大地电磁(MT)与DEMAP的野外对比观测实验.数值模拟结果显示,DEMAP观测方式获得的结果受偏移距影响,造成的视电阻率和相位误差与偏移距大小和地下电性结构的复杂性密切相关,但在整体上,统计误差≤10%.通过对野马泉矿集区的实验结果分析可得,DEMAP与MT的视电阻率断面和相位断面具有较好的一致性.本文从理论和实验上都表明DEMAP观测技术是一种有潜力的、经济、快速、有效的找矿手段.  相似文献   

胶州湾中肋骨条藻赤潮与环境因子的关系   总被引：55，自引：13，他引：55  

霍文毅  俞志明  邹景忠  宋秀贤  郝建华 《海洋与湖沼》2001,32(3):311-318

1998年7月3－8日胶州湾女增养残海域发生一次中肋骨条藻（Skketonemacostatum)赤潮，对该次赤潮生消全过程环境因子变化的监测分析表明，该养殖海域表层水体解态无机氮，无机磷，可溶性铁和锰含量高，为赤潮的发生提供了必需的营养基础，6月30日－7月1日较强的降雨过程使不体在以后两天中形成了高温，低盐，富营养的环境，有利于中肋骨条藻快速增殖拉导致了赤潮的爆发，7月3－8日天气持续的高温和静风使赤潮得以维持，随后磷，硅的耗尽使赤潮逐步走向消亡，应用相关分析和主成分分析，研究了赤潮与环境因子的关系，结果表明，影响本次赤潮的重要环境因子有：盐度，水温，硅酸盐，磷酸盐。  相似文献   

紫坪铺库区断层分布规律统计分析     

周宏伟  佘云龙  李洪 《工程地质学报》2007,15(2):159-163

定量描述地质构造的分布规律对诸如核废料地质处置、边坡稳定性分析、采矿工程以及水利水电工程都具有十分重要的意义。本文根据紫坪铺水库工程区域地质图,通过提取断层信息的方法,获得了断层分布图。对紫坪铺水利枢纽工程库区内尺度跨越3个数量级、共126条断层进行了统计分析,获得了断层长度-数量间的幂律关系,即N(r)~r-D。并通过分段线性拟合的方法,计算了幂指数的值。发现当断层长度r2.5km时,幂指数D=0.32;而当断层长度r2.5km时,幂指数D=1.58。该幂律关系对推演更小或更大规模断层分布具有重要意义。  相似文献