1 INTRODUCTION Being an important composition of the atmosphere, aerosol attracts increasing attention from the scientific community in recent years, together with the radiative forcing it causes and effects it imposes on the climate system. The anthropogenic aerosol affects the climate both directly and indirectly. The climate is directly affected when solar shortwave radiation is scattered and absorbed in what is known as the 搖mbrella effect? which can be dated back to as early as mor… 相似文献
Large carbon dioxide plumes with concentrations up to 45 ppm aboveambient levels were measured about 15 km downwind of the Prudhoe Bay, Alaskamajor oil production facilities, located at 70° N Lat. above the ArcticCircle. The measured emissions were 1.3 × 103 metrictons (C) hour-1 (11.4× 106 metric tons(C) year-1), six times greater than the combustion emissionsassumed by Jaffe and coworkers in J. Atmos. Chem. 20 (1995), 213–227,based on 1989 reported Prudhoe Bay oil facility fuel consumption data, andfour times greater than the total C emissions reported by the oil facilitiesfor the same months as the measurement time periods. Variations in theemissions were estimated by extrapolating the observed emissions at a singlealtitude for all tundra research transect flights conducted downwind of theoil fields. These 30 flights yielded an average emission rate of1.02 × 103 metric tons (C) hour-1 with astandard deviation of 0.33 × 103. These quantity ofemissions are roughly equivalent to the carbon dioxide emissions of7–10 million hectares of arctic tussock tundra (Oechel and Vourlitis,Trends in Ecol. Evolution 9 (1994), 324–329). 相似文献
Estuaries are used as nursery grounds by numerous marine species despite being usually subject to strong anthropogenic disturbances. Abundances of marine recruits (fish and crustacean decapods) and their main prey (mysids) were monitored by monthly sampling, from June 1997 to February 2009, in the lower reaches of the Guadalquivir estuary (SW Spain). During that period, unusually high and persistent turbidity events (HPTEs) were observed twice. Both HPTEs started with strong and sudden freshwater discharges after relatively long periods of very low freshwater inflow. Data from this time-series were used to test the hypothesis that HPTEs may negatively impact the nursery function of estuaries either by decreasing prey availability or by decreasing survival/arrival of marine recruits. During HPTEs, the commonest mysid (Mesopodopsis slabberi), a key species in the estuarine food web, showed a significant decrease in abundance. Likewise, some marine recruits that prey on M. slabberi and whose peaks of abundance within the estuary occur in summer–autumn (Engraulis encrasicolus and Pomadasys incisus) were less abundant during HPTEs. It is also suggested that HPTEs might have triggered a shift in the distribution of the most euryhaline prey (Neomysis integer) and predator (Dicentrarchus punctatus and Crangon crangon) species, towards more saline waters. This could have contributed to an increase in the inter-specific competition (for food/habitat) within the estuarine nursery area. The results discussed in this study call attention to the need to reduce as much as possible the anthropogenic pressures that may stimulate the occurrence of high and persistent turbidity events (HPTEs) in order to preserve the nursery function of temperate estuaries. 相似文献
This article illustrates the main difficulties encountered in the preparation of GHG emission projections and climate change mitigation policies and measures (P&M) for Kazakhstan. Difficulties in representing the system with an economic model have been overcome by representing the energy system with a technical-economic growth model (MARKAL-TIMES) based on the stock of existing plants, transformation processes, and end-use devices. GHG emission scenarios depend mainly on the pace of transition in Kazakhstan from a planned economy to a market economy. Three scenarios are portrayed: an incomplete transition, a fast and successful one, and even more advanced participation in global climate change mitigation, including participation in some emission trading schemes. If the transition to a market economy is completed by 2020, P&M already adopted may reduce emissions of CO2 from combustion by about 85 MtCO2 by 2030 – 17% of the emissions in the baseline (WOM) scenario. One-third of these reductions are likely to be obtained from the demand sectors, and two-thirds from the supply sectors. If every tonne of CO2 not emitted is valued up to US$10 in 2020 and $20 in 2030, additional P&M may further reduce emissions by 110 MtCO2 by 2030. 相似文献
Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.
Policy relevance
The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions. 相似文献