甘肃河西走廊两次强对流天气对比分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王伏村  李耀辉  牛金龙  张得玉 《气象》2008,34(1):48-53

使用地面高空观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°6小时再分析数据和张掖CINRAD/CC雷达观测数据,对2006年7月7日、8月10日发生在甘肃河西走廊中部的两次强对流天气的环流形势、大气稳定度、相对风暴螺旋度(SRH)、天气雷达回波特征进行了对比分析.分析结果表明:产生这两次强对流天气环流形势不同.7月7日飑线对流系统产生于北部沙漠戈壁由北向南移动,右移飑线前部结构为气旋式旋转;8月10日对流系统产生于青藏高原由南向北移动,来自高原上的暖湿气流水汽充足,不稳定层比7月7日深厚,产生冰雹的左移超级单体结构为反气旋式旋转.7月7日右移飑线相对风暴螺旋度降雹前为正值,降雹开始后转为负值;8月10日左移反气旋超级单体相对风暴螺旋度在发展期为负值,降雹开始后跃增到60m2·s-2以上.  相似文献   

贵州地区一次暴雨的数值模拟及不稳定性诊断分析   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

吴哲红  虞苏青  丁治英  伍红雨 《高原气象》2008,27(6)

利用MM5V3.6模式对2004年5月29~30日发生在贵州地区的一次暴雨过程进行了模拟,模拟结果与实况基本一致。在此基础上,用模拟结果对强降水的流场以及不稳定机制等进行了诊断分析,以解释强降水发生的物理机制。结果表明,这次降水是由多种尺度系统相互作用,高、低层环流配置以及高空急流位置的变化等共同作用产生的;高层辐散区发展、低层辐合加强,形成"抽气机"效应,低层正涡度和高层负涡度加强,垂直涡度发展,激发出次级环流;对不稳定性的分析表明,降水开始为对流不稳定能量触发,降水加强后对流不稳定层次降低,对流不稳定能量减弱;中层锋区附近θe面陡立,有倾斜涡度发展,继而中层锋区条件性对称不稳定能量发展,降水加强。  相似文献   

A Preliminary Application of the Differential Evolution Algorithm to Calculate the CNOP   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

SUN Guo-Dong  MU Mu 《大气和海洋科学快报》2009,2(6):381-385

A projected skill is adopted by use of the differential evolution （DE） algorithm to calculate a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP）. The CNOP is the maximal value of a constrained optimization problem with a constraint condition, such as a ball constraint. The success of the DE algorithm lies in its ability to handle a non-differentiable and nonlinear cost function. In this study, the DE algorithm and the traditional optimization algorithms used to obtain the CNOPs are compared by analyzing a theoretical grassland ecosystem model and a dynamic global vegetation model. This study shows that the CNOPs generated by the DE algorithm are similar to those by the sequential quadratic programming （SQP） algorithm and the spectral projected gradients （SPG2） algorithm. If the cost function is non-differentiable, the CNOPs could also be caught with the DE algorithm. The numerical results suggest the DE algorithm can be employed to calculate the CNOP, especially when the cost function is non-differentiable.  相似文献   

Impact of Different Guidances on Sensitive Areas of Targeting Observations Based on the CNOP Method   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

TAN Xiaowei  WANG Bin  WANG Dongliang 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2010,24(1):17-30

The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations(CNOPs) obtained by a fast algorithm are applied to determining the sensitive area for the targeting observation of Typhoon Matsa in 2005 using an operational regional prediction model-the Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System(GRAPES).Through a series of sensitivity experiments,several issues on targeting strategy design are discussed,including the effectivity of different guidances to determine the sensitive area(or targeting area) and the impa...  相似文献   

Assessing the relationships between elevation and extreme precipitation with various durations in southern Taiwan using spatial regression models     

Hone‐Jay Chu 《水文研究》2012,26(21):3174-3181

A spatially autocorrelated effect exists in precipitation of a mountainous basin. This study examines the relationship between maximum annual rainfall and elevation in the Kaoping River Basin of southern Taiwan using spatial regression models (i.e. geographically weighted regression (GWR), simultaneous autoregression (SAR), and conditional autoregression (CAR)). Results show that the GWR, SAR, and CAR models can improve spatial data fitting and provide an enhanced estimation for the rainfall–elevation relationship than the ordinary least squares approach. In particular, GWR achieves the most accurate estimation, and SAR and CAR achieve similar performance in terms of the Akaike information criterion. The relationship between extreme rainfall and elevation for longer duration is more concise than that for short durations. Results show that the spatial distribution of precipitation depends on elevation and that rainfall patterns in study area are heterogeneous between the southwestern plain and the eastern mountain area. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Flood simulation using the gauge‐adjusted radar rainfall and physics‐based distributed hydrologic model     

Byung Sik Kim  Bo Kyung Kim  Hung Soo Kim 《水文研究》2008,22(22):4400-4414

This paper reports the results of an investigation into flood simulation by areal rainfall estimated from the combination of gauged and radar rainfalls and a rainfall–runoff model on the Anseong‐cheon basin in the southern part of Korea. The spatial and temporal characteristics and behaviour of rainfall are analysed using various approaches combining radar and rain gauges: (1) using kriging of the rain gauge alone; (2) using radar data alone; (3) using mean field bias (MFB) of both radar and rain gauges; and (4) using conditional merging technique (CM) of both radar and rain gauges. To evaluate these methods, statistics and hyetograph for rain gauges and radar rainfalls were compared using hourly radar rainfall data from the Imjin‐river, Gangwha, rainfall radar site, Korea. Then, in order to evaluate the performance of flood estimates using different rainfall estimation methods, rainfall–runoff simulation was conducted using the physics‐based distributed hydrologic model, Vflo^?. The flood runoff hydrograph was used to compare the calculated hydrographs with the observed one. Results show that the rainfall field estimated by CM methods improved flood estimates, because it optimally combines rainfall fields representing actual spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Approximate local confidence intervals under change of support     

A. E. Tercan  P. A. Dowd 《Mathematical Geology》1995,27(1):149-172

Approximate local confidence intervals are constructed from uncertainty models in the form of the conditional distribution of the random variable Z given values of variables [Z_i, i=1,...,n]. When the support of the variable Z is any support other than that of the data, the conditional distributions require a change of support correction. This paper investigates the effect of change of support on the approximate local confidence intervals constructed by cumulative indicator kriging, class indicator kriging, and probability kriging under a variety of conditions. The conditions are generated by three simulated deposits with grade distributions of successively higher degree of skewness; a point support and two different block supports are considered. The paper also compares the confidence intervals obtained from these methods using the most used measures of confidence interval effectiveness.  相似文献   

Comparative performance of indicator algorithms for modeling conditional probability distribution functions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

P. Goovaerts 《Mathematical Geology》1994,26(3):389-411

This paper compares the performance of four algorithms (full indicator cokriging. adjacent cutoffs indicator cokriging, multiple indicator kriging, median indicator kriging) for modeling conditional cumulative distribution functions (ccdf).The latter three algorithms are approximations to the theoretically better full indicator cokriging in the sense that they disregard cross-covariances between some indicator variables or they consider that all covariances are proportional to the same function. Comparative performance is assessed using a reference soil data set that includes 2649 locations at which both topsoil copper and cobalt were measured. For all practical purposes, indicator cokriging does not perform better than the other simpler algorithms which involve less variogram modeling effort and smaller computational cost. Furthermore, the number of order relation deviations is found to be higher for cokriging algorithms, especially when constraints on the kriging weights are applied.  相似文献   

Stochastic conditional inverse modeling of subsurface mass transport: A brief review and the self-calibrating method   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

J. J.?Gómez-HernándezEmail author  H.-J. W. M. Hendricks?Franssen  A.?Sahuquillo 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2003,17(5):319-328

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贝叶斯网络结构学习及其应用研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

黄解军  万幼川  潘和平 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2004,29(4):315-318

阐述了贝叶斯网络结构学习的内容与方法 ,提出一种基于条件独立性 (CI)测试的启发式算法。从完全潜在图出发 ,融入专家知识和先验常识 ,有效地减少网络结构的搜索空间 ,通过变量之间的CI测试 ,将全连接无向图修剪成最优的潜在图 ,近似于有向无环图的无向版。通过汽车故障诊断实例 ,验证了该算法的可行性与有效性。  相似文献