东亚春季强冷锋结构及其动力学诊断研究 II. 动力学诊断研究          下载免费PDF全文

李振军  赵思雄 《大气科学》1997,21(1):91-98

在本文第I部分对东亚春季强冷锋结构进行分析的基础上，第II部分对该锋面的增强过程作了动力学诊断的研究。通过研究发现:(1)从27日08时至28日20时（北京时，下同），该冷锋处于加强阶段，锋生函数的计算显示，最大锋生区出现在对流层中层，各项的量级相同，但以倾斜项的数值为大；(2)在锋生区的南侧发现有很明显的条件对称不稳定（CSI）区域，这有利于倾斜的对流上升运动的发展，提供了一个较好的强对流系统发展的环境，对冷锋中尺度雨带的形成，CSI的激发可能有重要的作用，然而东亚春季强冷锋的CSI与北美“典型”的CSI有较明显的不同；(3)本例与Hoskins-Bretherton（HB）的理论模型所进行的比较表明，HB模型的结果可说明实际观测到的锋区的基本特征。然而，理论模型中，可能由于采用半地转假设所限，对锋后的一支下沉气流描写较弱，而这支气流对强烈天气的发展可能有重要意义。  相似文献   

FX-3600P计算机程序在磁异常数据处理有关问题中的应用     

徐宝慈 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》1988,(2)

经反复摸索、实践,充分利用FX-3600P袖珍计算机的现有性能,开发扩充新功能,井结合巧妙的编制程序,给出了磁异常数据处理中几个常规方法(磁异常延拓、分量转换、频谱计算等)的循环程序。部分题目上实现了以小机器算大题目,为数据处理工作提供了一个快速、简便、经济的新途径。  相似文献   

Conditioning Fractal (fBm/fGn) Porosity and Permeability Fields to Multiwell Pressure Data     

Ayse Donmez Zeybek  Mustafa Onur 《Mathematical Geology》2003,35(5):577-612

Stochastic fractal (fGn and fBm) porosity and permeability fields are conditioned to given variogram, static (or hard), and multiwell pressure data within a Bayesian estimation framework. Because fGn distributions are normal/second-order stationary, it is shown that the Bayesian estimation methods based on the assumption of normal/second-order stationary distributions can be directly used to generate fGn porosity/permeability fields conditional to pressure data. However, because fBm is not second-order stationary, it is shown that such Bayesian estimation methods can be used with implementation of a pseudocovariance approach to generate fBm porosity/permeability fields conditional to multiwell pressure data. In addition, we provide methods to generate unconditional realizations of fBm/fGn fields honoring all variogram parameters. These unconditional realizations can then be conditioned to hard and pressure data observed at wells by using the randomized maximum likelihood method. Synthetic examples generated from one-, two-, and three-dimensional single-phase flow simulators are used to show the applicability of our methodology for generating realizations of fBm/fGn porosity and permeability fields conditioned to well-test pressure data and evaluating the uncertainty in reservoir performance predictions appropriately using these history-matched realizations.  相似文献   

Characterization and reconstruction of a rock fracture surface by geostatistics   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. Marache  J. Riss  S. Gentier  J.‐P. Chils 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2002,26(9):873-896

It is well understood that, in studying the mechanical and hydromechanical behaviour of rock joints, their morphology must be taken into account. A geostatistical approach has been developed for characterizing the morphology of fracture surfaces at a decimetre scale. This allows the analysis of the spatial variability of elevations, and their first and second derivatives, with the intention of producing a model that gives a numerical three‐dimensional (3D) representation of the lower and upper surfaces of the fracture. Two samples (I and II) located close together were cored across a natural fracture. The experimental data are the elevations recorded along profiles (using recording steps of 0.5 and 0.02 mm, respectively, for the samples I and II). The goal of this study is to model the surface topography of sample I, so getting estimates for elevations at each node of a square grid whose mesh size will be, for mechanical purposes, no larger than the recording step. Since the fracture surface within the sample core is not strictly horizontal, geostatistical methods are applied to residuals of elevations of sample I. Further, since structural information is necessary at very low scale, theoretical models of variograms of elevations, first and second derivatives are fitted using data of both that sample I and sample II. The geostatistical reconstructions are computed using kriging and conditional simulation methods. In order to validate these reconstructions, variograms and distributions of experimental data are compared with variograms and distributions of the fitted data. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

南京市呼吸道疾病时间序列模型的建立与分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

米娜谈建国  姚克敏关宏强 《气象科技》2005,33(6):554-558

利用1990～2000年南京市支气管哮喘与感冒逐月就诊人数病例资料和同期国家气象中心资料室的月平均压、温、湿等资料,讨论了2种疾病发病人数的月际和年际变化规律,分别建立了包含气象因子的预报2种疾病逐月就诊人数的条件异方差和动态回归模型。南京地区支气管哮喘就诊人数高峰期出现在春末与秋季,逐年的就诊人数呈现上升趋势,其发病与当月月平均气压、上一个月月平均温度有关。感冒就诊人数高峰期出现在夏秋季,其发病与月平均最低温度和月极端最低温度有关。将模型应用于2种疾病逐月就诊人数的等级预报中,其预报等级准确率分别达75．0％和66．7％,表明此建模方案是可行的,此类模型有一定的使用价值。  相似文献   

全球典型低云区中各类低云云量与水平温度平流关系的单点个例分析     

顾荣直  王必正  章丽娜 《气候与环境研究》2005,10(3):615-625

选取欧洲中心40年再分析资料(ERA40)中2001年7月的775hPa和925hPa等压面上的风场和温度场资料与ISCCP同时段的低云资料,利用条件概率方法(云频数)和逐日演变的动态方法分析全球典型低云区单点的云量与水平温度平流的关系.结果表明:全球典型低云区单点上各种云的云量与水平温度平流之间的关系是十分复杂的,在某种平流下各种云均有可能出现,某种云也能在不同的平流下出现.全球典型低云区单点云量与水平温度平流的逐日演变没有明显的同步性.因此,从已知的水平温度平流条件来预报各类低云云量是没有充分的观测事实作为依据的.  相似文献   

一维河流水质方程解析解性态的初步分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

郭建青  李云峰 《水文》1999,33(6):30-33

采用较为简单的数学方法,建立了一维时投源河流水质方程解析解计算结果的统计参数与原始数据的统计参数间的近似关系,推导出描述该解析解计算问题性态的条件数,通过讨论,指明了计算问题属于“病态”和“良态”的条件。从而为正确使用该解析解解决实际水质问题提出了相应的建议。  相似文献   

The effect of amplitude scaling limits on conditional spectrum-based ground motion selection     

Wenqi Du  Chao-Lie Ning  Gang Wang 《地震工程与结构动力学》2019,48(9):1030-1044

Amplitude scaling is commonly used to select ground motions matching a target response spectrum. In this paper, the effect of scaling limits on ground motion selection, based on the conditional spectrum framework, is investigated. Target spectra are computed for four probabilistic seismic hazard cases in Western United States, and 16 ground motion suites are selected using different scaling limits (ie, 2, 5, 10, and 15). Comparison of spectral acceleration distributions of the selected ground motion suites demonstrates that the use of a scaling limit of 2 yields a relatively poor representation of the target spectra, because of the small limit leading to an insufficient number of available ground motions. It is also shown that increasing scaling limit results in selected ground motions with generally increased distributions of Arias intensity and significant duration Ds_5-75, implying that scaling limit consideration can significantly influence the cumulative and duration characteristics of selected ground motions. The ground motion suites selected are then used as input for slope displacement and structural dynamic analyses. Comparative results demonstrate that the consideration of scaling limits in ground motion selection has a notable influence on the distribution of the engineering demand parameters calculated (ie, slope displacement and interstory drift ratio). Finally, based on extensive analyses, a scaling limit range of 3 to 5 is recommended for general use when selecting ground motion records from the NGA-West2 database.  相似文献   

全卷积网络和条件随机场相结合的全极化SAR土地覆盖分类     

赵泉华  谢凯浪  王光辉  李玉 《测绘学报》2020,49(1):65-78

针对经典全卷积网络(fully convolution network,FCN)分类精度低、效果差,以及传统的极化合成孔径雷达(PolSAR)土地覆盖分类方法未充分考虑地物散射特性的问题,提出了一种结合改进FCN和条件随机场(conditional random field,CRF)的全极化SAR土地覆盖分类算法。首先,利用Freeman分解和Pauli分解建模全极化SAR影像,同时提取各分解对应的散射特征,参考Freeman分解散射功率获取其主散射分量对应的主散射地物;同时,借鉴在图像分类领域中具有卓越表现的FCN-Vgg19-8s网络,考虑其高层卷积参数量大和低层卷积模型参数优化程度不足,通过在高层和中层分别构建多尺度卷积组和代价函数设计了FCN-MD-8s网络,保证对整体模型参数进行降维和优化;以Freeman分解散射机理特征为基准,采用级连式迁移学习结构,实现FCN-MD-8s网络的模型训练和测试;然后,根据主散射分量所对应的主散射地物,在各分量预测图中提取出主特征地物,得到分量地物分类结果,并将其进行叠加得到全局粗分类;最后,利用全连接CRF结合Pauli相干分解重建假彩色图,对全局粗分类进行全局像素类别转移获得细分类结果。通过对分类结果定性和定量分析,可知提出算法具有有效性和可行性。  相似文献   

基于K2结构学习算法的多光谱影像贝叶斯网络分类器     

陶建斌  舒宁  沈照庆 《地理空间信息》2009,7(2):15-18

用基于启发式搜索的结构学习算法,学习得到多光谱影像的贝叶斯网络结构,分析了TM的波段（特征）间条件独立性假设的合理性,给出了贝叶斯推理中后验概率计算的公式,并通过和最大似然法对比试验分析了简单贝叶斯网络应用于多光谱影像分类的优势。  相似文献