Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions     

Hilary McMillan  Jim Freer  Florian Pappenberger  Tobias Krueger  Martyn Clark 《水文研究》2010,24(10):1270-1284

In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Time‐scale analysis in unsaturated porous media under external wave loads     

Heng Xiao  Yin Lu Young  Jean H. Prévost 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2010,34(18):1935-1959

Extreme waves caused by tsunamis and storm surges can lead to soil failures in the near‐shore region, which may have severe impact on coastal environments and communities. Multiphase flows in deformable porous media involve several coupled processes and multiple time scales, which are challenging for numerical simulations. The objective of this study is to investigate the roles of the various processes and their interactions in multiphase flows in unsaturated soils under external wave loading, via theoretical time‐scale analysis and numerical simulations. A coupled geomechanics–multiphase flow model based on conservation laws is used. Theoretical analysis based on coupled and decoupled models demonstrates that transient and steady‐state responses are governed by pore pressure diffusion and saturation front propagation, respectively, and that the two processes are essentially decoupled. Numerical simulations suggest that the compressibility of the pore fluids and the deformation of the soil skeleton are important when the transient responses of the media are of concern, while the steady‐state responses are not sensitive to these factors. The responses obtained from the fully coupled numerical simulations are explained by a simplified time‐scale analysis based on coupled and decoupled models. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The role of the hyporheic zone across stream networks     

Steven M. Wondzell 《水文研究》2011,25(22):3525-3532

Many hyporheic papers state that the hyporheic zone is a critical component of stream ecosystems, and many of these papers focus on the biogeochemical effects of the hyporheic zone on stream solute loads. However, efforts to show such relationships have proven elusive, prompting several questions: Are the effects of the hyporheic zone on stream ecosystems so highly variable in place and time (or among streams) that a consistent relationship should not be expected? Or, is the hyporheic zone less important in stream ecosystems than is commonly expected? These questions were examined using data from existing groundwater modelling studies of hyporheic exchange flow at five sites in a fifth‐order, mountainous stream network. The size of exchange flows, relative to stream discharge (Q_HEF:Q), was large only in very small streams at low discharge (area ≈ 100 ha; Q < 10 l/s). At higher flows (flow exceedance probability > 0·7) and in all larger streams, Q_HEF:Q was small. These data show that biogeochemical processes in the hyporheic zone of small streams can substantially influence the stream's solute load, but these processes become hydrologically constrained at high discharge or in larger streams and rivers. The hyporheic zone may influence stream ecosystems in many ways, however, not just through biogeochemical processes that alter stream solute loads. For example, the hyporheic zone represents a unique habitat for some organisms, with patterns and amounts of upwelling and downwelling water determining the underlying physiochemical environment of the hyporheic zone. Similarly, hyporheic exchange creates distinct patches of downwelling and upwelling. Upwelling environments are of special interest, because upwelling water has the potential to be thermally or chemically distinct from stream water. Consequently, micro‐environmental patches created by hyporheic exchange flows are likely to be important to biological and ecosystem processes, even if their impact on stream solute loads is small. Published in 2011 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Long‐term hydrologic simulation using SCS‐CN‐based improved soil moisture accounting procedure     

Dilip G. Durbude  Manoj K. Jain  Surendra K. Mishra 《水文研究》2011,25(4):561-579

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Effect of growing watershed imperviousness on hydrograph parameters and peak discharge     

Huang‐jia Huang  Shin‐jen Cheng  Jet‐chau Wen  Ju‐huang Lee 《水文研究》2008,22(13):2075-2085

An increasing impervious area is quickly extending over the Wu‐Tu watershed due to the endless demands of the people. Generally, impervious paving is a major result of urbanization and more recently has had the potential to produce more enormous flood disasters than those of the past. In this study, 40 available rainfall–runoff events were chosen to calibrate the applicable parameters of the models and to determine the relationships between the impervious surfaces and the calibrated parameters. Model inputs came from the outcomes of the block kriging method and the non‐linear programming method. In the optimal process, the shuffled complex evolution method and three criteria were applied to compare the observed and simulated hydrographs. The tendencies of the variations of the parameters with their corresponding imperviousness were established through regression analysis. Ten cases were used to examine the established equations of the parameters and impervious covers. Finally, the design flood routines of various return periods were furnished through use of approaches containing a design storm, block kriging, the SCS model, and a rainfall‐runoff model with established functional relationships. These simulated flood hydrographs were used to compare and understand the past, present, and future hydrological conditions of the watershed studied. In the research results, the time to peak of flood hydrographs for various storms was diminished approximately from 11 h to 6 h in different decrements, whereas peak flow increased respectively from 127 m³ s^?1 to 629 m³ s^?1 for different storm intensities. In addition, this study provides a design diagram for the peak flow ratio to help engineers and designers to construct hydraulic structures efficiently and prevent possible damage to human life and property. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Contribution of climatic and anthropogenic effects to the hydric deficit of peatlands     

Chrystelle Auterives  Luc Aquilina  Olivier Bour  Mélanie Davranche  Valérie Paquereau 《水文研究》2011,25(18):2890-2906

The present study makes use of a detailed water balance to investigate the hydrological status of a peatland with a basal clay‐rich layer overlying an aquifer exploited for drinking water. The aim is to determine the influence of climate and groundwater extraction on the water balance and water levels in the peatland. During the two‐year period of monitoring, the hydrological functioning of the wetland showed a hydric deficit, associated with a permanent unsaturated layer and a deep water table. At the same time, a stream was observed serving as a recharge inflow instead of draining the peatland, as usually described in natural systems. Such conditions are not favourable for peat accumulation. Field investigations show that the clay layer has a high hydraulic conductivity (from 1·10^?7 to 3·10^?9 m.s^?1) and does not form a hydraulic barrier. Moreover, the vertical hydraulic gradients are downward between the peat and the sand aquifer, leading to high flows of groundwater through the clay layer (20–48% of the precipitation). The observed hydric deficit of the peatland results from a combination of dry climatic conditions during the study period and groundwater extraction. The climatic effect is mainly expressed through drying out of the peatland, while the anthropogenic effect leads to an enhancement of the climatic effect on a global scale, and a modification of fluxes at a local scale. The drying out of the peatland can lead to its mineralisation, which thus gives rise to environmental impacts. The protection of such wetlands in the context of climate change should take account of anthropogenic pressures by considering the wetland‐aquifer interaction. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A practical and efficient numerical scheme for the analysis of steady state unconfined seepage flows     

Mohammad Hossein Bazyar  Adel Graili 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2012,36(16):1793-1812

The scaled boundary finite‐element method (SBFEM), a novel semi‐analytical technique, is applied to the analysis of the confined and unconfined seepage flow. This method combines the advantages of the finite‐element method and the boundary element method. In this method, only the boundary of the domain is discretized; no fundamental solution is required, and singularity problems can be modeled rigorously. Anisotropic and nonhomogeneous materials satisfying similarity are modeled without additional efforts. In this paper, SBFE equations and solution procedures for the analysis of seepage flow are outlined. The accuracy of the proposed method in modeling singularity problems is demonstrated by analyzing seepage flow under a concrete dam with a cutoff at heel. As only the boundary is discretized, the variable mesh technique is advisable for modeling unconfined seepage analyses. The accuracy, effectiveness, and efficiency of the method are demonstrated by modeling several unconfined seepage flow problems. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Nutrient export via overland flow from a cultivated field of an Ultisol in southern China     

Linhong Wei  Xunqiang Cheng  Yuanfeng Cai 《水文研究》2013,27(3):421-432

Understanding the influence of complex interactions among hydrological factors, soil characteristics and biogeochemical functions on nutrient dynamics in overland flow is important for efficiently managing agricultural nonpoint pollution. Experiments were conducted to assess nutrient export from Ultisol soils in the Sunjia catchment, Jiangxi province, southern China, between 2003 and 2005. Four plots were divided into two groups: two peanut plots and two agroforestry (peanut intercropped with citrus) plots. During the study period, we collected water samples for chemical analyses after each rainfall event that generated overland flow to assess nutrient export dynamics. The concentrations of potassium (K) and nitrate‐N (NO₃^––N) in overland flow were higher during the wetting season (winter and early spring). This reflects the solubility of K and NO₃^––N, the accumulation of NO₃^––N during the dry season and an increase in desorption processes and mixing with pre‐event water caused by prolonged contact with soil in areas with long‐duration, low‐intensity rainfall. In contrast, concentrations of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were higher during the wet season (late March to early July) and during the dry season (mid‐July to the end of September or early October). This was due to the interaction between specific hydrological regimes, the properties of the Ultisol and particulate transport processes. Variations in nutrient concentrations during storm events further identified that event water was the dominant source of total nitrogen and total phosphorus, and pre‐event water was the dominant source of NO₃^––N. In addition, the results obtained for the different land uses suggest that agroforestry practices reduce nutrient loss via overland flow. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Numerical simulation of ductile shear localization: Plastic‐flow network and slip‐line field     

Sheng‐zu Wang  Jun‐xiu Sun  Jie‐yuan Ning 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2008,32(3):307-324

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A steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach for sub‐daily flow disaggregation     

Kim‐Seong Tan  Francis H. S. Chiew  Rodger B. Grayson 《水文研究》2007,21(20):2807-2816

The estimation of sub‐daily flows from daily flood flows is important for many hydrological and hydraulic applications. Flows during flood events often vary significantly within sub‐daily time‐scales, and failure to capture the sub‐daily flood characteristic can result in an underestimation of the instantaneous flood peaks, with possible risk of design failure. It is more common to find a longer record of daily flow series (observed or modelled using daily rainfall series) than sub‐daily flow data. This paper describes a novel approach, known as the steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach, for disaggregating daily flood flows into sub‐daily flows that takes advantage of the strong relationship between the standardized instantaneous flood peak and the standardized daily flood hydrograph rising‐limb steepness index. The strength of this relationship, which is considerably stronger than the relationship between the standardized flood peak and the event flood volume, is shown using data from six rivers flowing into the Gippsland Lakes in southeast Australia. The results indicate that the steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach can be used to disaggregate modelled daily flood flows satisfactorily, but its reliability is dependent on a model's ability to simulate the standardized daily flood hydrograph rising‐limb steepness index and the event flood volume. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献