Integration of transfer function model and back propagation neural network for forecasting storm sewer flow in Taipei metropolis     

Chih-Chiang Lu  Chu-Hui Chen  Tian-Chyi J. Yeh  Cheng-Mau Wu  I-Fang Yau 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,20(1-2):6-22

Typhoons and storms have often brought heavy rainfalls and induced floods that have frequently caused severe damage and loss of life in Taiwan. Our ability to predict sewer discharge and forecast floods in advance during storm seasons plays an important role in flood warning and flood hazard mitigation. In this paper, we develop an integrated model (TFMBPN) for forecasting sewer discharge that combines two traditional models: a transfer function model and a back propagation neural network. We evaluated the integrated model and the two traditional models by applying them to a sewer system of Taipei metropolis during three past typhoon events (NARI, SINLAKU, and NAKR). The performances of the models were evaluated by using predictions of a total of 6 h of sewer flow stages, and six different evaluation indices of the predictions. Finally, an overall performance index was determined to assess the overall performance of each model. Based on these evaluation indices, our analysis shows that TFMBNP yields accurate results that surpass the two traditional models. Thus, TFMBNP appears to be a promising tool for flood forecasting for the Taipei metropolis sewer system. For publication in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Analysis.  相似文献   

闽台地区近震震级ML量规函数研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

林仙坎 《中国地震》2006,22(3):287-293

作者精心地挑选了发生在台湾地区的ML=4.0~5.0壳内地震215个,用福建台网记录到的这些地震的最大地动位移资料,利用多元回归分析方法,拟合出最大地动位移的衰减特征为logA=2.07 231.1/Δ(150km≤Δ≤650km)与之相应的量规函数的表达式为R(Δ)=3.45-231.1(1/Δ-0.01)(150km≤Δ≤650km)对于1999年9月~2005年8月发生在台湾地区地壳内的790个地震,分别利用相关部门在1997年制定的量规函数和上式所示量规函数,求出福建台网测定的平均震级及均方差。结果表明,据前者所得的平均均方差为0.20,而后者为0.18。如果在测定震级时,考虑到台基修正值,则后者为0.13;把测定的结果与台湾相关部门的测定结果进行比较,前者平均低了0.50左右,而后者高了0.08左右。  相似文献   

云南地区地震视应变时空演变与强震发震地区的对应关系   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

张彬  杨选辉  易志刚  孙小龙 《中国地震》2006,22(4):364-372

在前人研究的基础上，利用云南及周边地区的地震资料，研究了1970年以来云南地区地震视应变场的分布和时空演化特征。结果表明，云南地区地震视应变的时空演变与强震具有较好的对应关系。在所研究的9个强震中，8个震前出现地震视应变异常区，5个发生在异常区内，3个发生在异常区附近。最后，对研究结果进行了初步论证。  相似文献   

浅谈防震减灾管理中非政府组织的作用     

邓风玲 《国际地震动态》2006,(3):24-27

地震灾害是自然灾害引起的危机事件,防震减灾管理是一项社会系统工程。NGO在社会管理和服务中发挥着重要的参与作用。在防震减灾管理中,NGO的作用体现在地震灾害管理的各个阶段。同时,NGO在参与地震灾害管理的行动中要与政府部门协调一致,并且要重视日常管理中的自身制度建设。  相似文献   

辽宁深井承压水位潮汐响应函数的初步研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

唐九安  梁子斌  常千军  范五基 《东北地震研究》2006,22(1):5-10

介绍了辽宁省地震水动态监测网19口井固体潮汐响应函数的计算结果,基于M2波潮汐因子及其月离散相对误差,分析了各观测井潮汐响应函数对地壳应变的响应灵敏度、潮汐因子的动态稳定性和监测效能。结果表明:在所列19口观测井中,如果以M2波潮汐因子0.2m/10-9作为潮汐响应幅值的下限,则除甘沟子以外的18口井可用于潮汐响应函数的研究;如果以M2波潮汐因子的月离散相对误差20%作为选择观测井的上限,则除瓦房店楼房井、岫岩1井、周家井、丹东变电所井、牛四井、容2井和阜新市甘沟子等井以外的12口井可用于潮汐参数的动态特征研究。  相似文献   

均生函数残差预报模型在降水预报中的试验研究     

唐毓勇  蒋国兴 《广西气象》2006,27(3):5-8

在均生函预报模型的基础上，利用其残差数据序列对均生函数预报模型进行校正，提出了均生函数残差预报模型。运用两种模型对百色市6、7、8月月降雨量进行了历史样本拟合，并进行独立地样本预报试验。预报结果发现，均生函数残差预报模型对原有模型在预报精度上都有一定的改进，取得了较好的预报效果。同时，利用MannKendall法和Yamamoto法，可以明确突变开始的时间，指出突变区域，使待报时段与建模资料处在同一气候阶段则预报效果更为理想。  相似文献   

桃仙机场雷雨转雨夹雪天气的分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

许彤  田丰 《广西气象》2006,27(4):34-36

通过对桃仙机场仅有的两次雷雨转雨夹雪天气过程的分析，总结出此类天气的形势特点，并初步得出此类天气预报的着眼点，为秋季飞行提供可靠的预报保障。  相似文献   

Evaluation of the Urban Tile in MOSES using Surface Energy Balance Observations     

M. J. Best  C. S. B. Grimmond  Maria Gabriella Villani 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,118(3):503-525

The UK Met Office has introduced a new scheme for its urban tile in MOSES 2.2 (Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme version 2.2), which is currently implemented within the operational Met Office weather forecasting model. Here, the performance of the urban tile is evaluated in two urban areas: the historic core of downtown Mexico City and a light industrial site in Vancouver, Canada. The sites differ in terms of building structures and mean building heights. In both cases vegetation cover is less than 5%. The evaluation is based on surface energy balance flux measurements conducted at approximately the blending height, which is the location where the surface scheme passes flux data into the atmospheric model. At both sites, MOSES 2.2 correctly simulates the net radiation, but there are discrepancies in the partitioning of turbulent and storage heat fluxes between predicted and observed values. Of the turbulent fluxes, latent heat fluxes were underpredicted by about one order of magnitude. Multiple model runs revealed MOSES 2.2 to be sensitive to changes in the canopy heat storage and in the ratio between the aerodynamic roughness length and that for heat transfer (temperature). Model performance was optimum with heat capacity values smaller than those generally considered for these sites. The results suggest that the current scheme is probably too simple, and that improvements may be obtained by increasing the complexity of the model.  相似文献   

COMPARISON OF ON-LINE COUPLED AND CONSTANT TRANSFER SIMULATION METHODS FOR DIRECT RADIATIVE FORCING OF ANTHROPOGENIC SULFATE     

WU Jian  LIU Hong-nian  WANG Wei-guo  LIU Gang 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2006,12(1)

1 INTRODUCTION Of three main methods for studying the radiative forcing of anthropogenic sulfate and climatic response on the regional scale, the first is, with given rates for transforming SO2 to sulfate, converting actually released SO2 into sulfate and acquiring the distribution of sulfate by computing transfer equations in the climate model.  相似文献   

Accurate Location of the Yao''''an Earthquake Sequence and the Yongsheng Earthquake Sequence     

Wang Xinling 《中国地震研究》2006,20(1):37-49

INTRODUCTIONEarthquake sequence is a series of centralized earthquake events in space-time after a largerearthquake.Since these earthquake events occur in a small space and are sequential in one specialtime,their seismogenic structure,mediumcharacteristics and earthquake mechanisms must be similar.By studying one earthquake sequence,the seismic activitytrend after a large earthquake can beconjectured.Some characteristics of the earthquake source development process and physic states canal…  相似文献