Criteria for Selecting and Adjusting Ground-Motion Models for Specific Target Regions: Application to Central Europe and Rock Sites   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：6  

Fabrice Cotton  Frank Scherbaum  Julian J. Bommer  Hilmar Bungum 《Journal of Seismology》2006,10(2):137-156

A vital component of any seismic hazard analysis is a model for predicting the expected distribution of ground motions at a site due to possible earthquake scenarios. The limited nature of the datasets from which such models are derived gives rise to epistemic uncertainty in both the median estimates and the associated aleatory variability of these predictive equations. In order to capture this epistemic uncertainty in a seismic hazard analysis, more than one ground-motion prediction equation must be used, and the tool that is currently employed to combine multiple models is the logic tree. Candidate ground-motion models for a logic tree should be selected in order to obtain the smallest possible suite of equations that can capture the expected range of possible ground motions in the target region. This is achieved by starting from a comprehensive list of available equations and then applying criteria for rejecting those considered inappropriate in terms of quality, derivation or applicability. Once the final list of candidate models is established, adjustments must be applied to achieve parameter compatibility. Additional adjustments can also be applied to remove the effect of systematic differences between host and target regions. These procedures are applied to select and adjust ground-motion models for the analysis of seismic hazard at rock sites in West Central Europe. This region is chosen for illustrative purposes particularly because it highlights the issue of using ground-motion models derived from small magnitude earthquakes in the analysis of hazard due to much larger events. Some of the pitfalls of extrapolating ground-motion models from small to large magnitude earthquakes in low seismicity regions are discussed for the selected target region.  相似文献   

山东酷热天气统计特征分析   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

杨成芳  龚佃利  张苏平 《气象》2003,29(9):28-33

利用统计方法对山东1951～2002年的酷热天气进行了分析，发现山东的酷热天气主要出现在鲁西、鲁北和鲁南；酷热天气在5～8月均可出现，主要集中在6～7月；有明显的年际变化，20世纪50～70年代前期酷热天气频繁发生，且强度较强。小波分析表明主要存在4年和10年左右的周期。西风带暖脊是造成山东酷热天气的主要天气形势，其次是副热带高压；酷热日与前期炎热日关系密切；850hPa温度场上郑州附近的24℃暖中心有很好的指示意义。  相似文献   

An Initial Guess for the Levenberg–Marquardt Algorithm for Conditioning a Stochastic Channel to Pressure Data     

Fengjun Zhang  Albert C. Reynolds  Dean S. Oliver 《Mathematical Geology》2003,35(1):67-88

A standard procedure for conditioning a stochastic channel to well-test pressure data requires the minimization of an objective function. The Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm is a natural choice for minimization, but may suffer from slow convergence or converge to a local minimum which gives an unacceptable match of observed pressure data if a poor initial guess is used. In this work, we present a procedure to generate a good initial guess when the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm is used to condition a stochastic channel to pressure data and well observations of channel facies, channel thickness, and channel top depth. This technique yields improved computational efficiency when the Levenberg–Marquardt method is used as the optimization procedure for generating realizations of the model by the randomized maximum likelihood method.  相似文献   

“98.7”武汉市特大暴雨的中尺度分析   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：4  

徐双柱 《气象》2002,28(7):54-57

使用红外云图、雷达回波、武汉市城区自动雨量站和地面中尺度观测资料，对1998年7月21－22日武汉市历史上罕见的特大暴雨进行了分析。概括了武汉市特大暴雨的时空分布，云图和雷达回波演变特征以及中尺度天气系统。为此后进行武汉市特大暴雨的预报提供有价值的参考依据。  相似文献   

黄淮海平原风沙化土地果树栽培技术研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

李晓云  张小军 《中国沙漠》1996,16(3):319-325

为治理、开发黄淮海平原风沙化土地，３年间，从国内外引入１４９个果树品种，建果园１５．３ｈｍ２。历时７年，选择出良种２８个，有苗百万株，推广、辐射面积０．６６ｈｍ２。研究表明：在现有条件下，本区采用引进选择、试验示范、推广辐射的办法，进行大穴栽植，截断淤积层，矮化密植，四季修剪，植物生长剂调控树体，少量、多次、浅施肥料，增施有机肥，间作留茬，冬春少耕、免耕，早防病虫害等一整套果树栽培、管理技术，是发展黄淮海风沙化地区果林业的一条快速、可靠、有效的方法。  相似文献   

Quantifying post-fire fallen trees using multi-temporal lidar     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2017

Massive tree-felling due to root damage is a common fire effect on burnt areas in Scandinavia, but has so far not been analyzed in detail. Here we explore if pre- and post-fire lidar data can be used to estimate the proportion of fallen trees. The study was carried out within a large (14,000 ha) area in central Sweden burnt in August 2014, where we had access to airborne lidar data from both 2011 and 2015. Three data-sets of predictor variables were tested: POST (post-fire lidar metrics), DIF (difference between post- and pre-fire lidar metrics) and combination of those two (POST_DIF). Fractional logistic regression was used to predict the proportion of fallen trees. Training data consisted of 61 plots, where the number of fallen and standing trees was calculated both in the field and with interpretation of drone images. The accuracy of the best model was tested based on 100 randomly selected validation plots with a size of 25 × 25 m.Our results showed that multi-temporal lidar together with field-collected training data can be used for quantifying post-fire tree felling over large areas. Several height-, density- and intensity metrics correlated with the proportion of fallen trees. The best model combined metrics from both datasets (POST_DIF), resulting in a RMSE of 0.11. Results were slightly poorer in the validation plots with RMSE of 0.18 using pixel size of 12.5 m and RMSE of 0.15 using pixel size of 6.25 m. Our model performed least well for stands that had been exposed to high-intensity crown fire. This was likely due to the low amount of echoes from the standing black tree skeletons. Wall-to-wall maps produced with this model can be used for landscape level analysis of fire effects and to explore the relationship between fallen trees and forest structure, soil type, fire intensity or topography.  相似文献   

2016年湖北梅汛期一次极端强降雨的气象因子异常特征分析     

张萍萍  孙军  车钦  董良鹏  钟敏  陈璇  张蒙蒙  张宁 《气象》2018,44(11):1424-1433

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析逐日资料和其他常规观测资料,对2016年湖北省梅雨期一次罕见极端强降水过程气象因子的异常特征进行分析。结果表明：异常的高低纬度环流形势配合,为此次极端降水过程的发生提供了有利的环流背景。500 hPa副热带高压较气候平均值显著偏强,有利于副热带高压西侧水汽输送加强,使得低层南风距平较气候平均值异常偏强;850 hPa 低涡强烈发展配合200 hPa分流区的形成,导致垂直方向上动力抬升也表现出一定的异常性;此外对该过程中极端降水站点上空的气象因子分析发现,水汽因子（PW）、不稳定因子（K指数）和动力因子（850 hPa散度）绝对值均比气候平均值偏高了1.5个σ以上,并且超过历史相关统计值的上四分位值。最后给出了此次过极端强降水过程的天气概念模型及气象因子异常度的定量配置图。  相似文献   

A comparative approach to modelling multiple urban land use changes using tree-based methods and cellular automata: the case of Greater Tokyo Area     

Guodong Du  Liang Yuan  Shunsuke Managi 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(4):757-782

Urban multiple land use change (LUC) modelling enables the realistic simulation of LUC processes in complex urban systems; however, such modelling suffers from technical challenges posed by complicated transition rules and high spatial heterogeneity when predicting the LUC of a highly developed area. Tree-based methods are powerful tools for addressing this task, but their predictive capabilities need further examination. This study integrates tree-based methods and cellular automata to simulate multiple LUC processes in the Greater Tokyo Area. We examine the predictive capability of 4 tree-based models – bagged trees, random forests, extremely randomised trees (ERT) and bagged gradient boosting decision trees (bagged GBDT) – on transition probability prediction for 18 land use transitions derived from 8 land use types. We compare the predictive power of a tree-based model with multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and among themselves. The results show that tree-based models generally perform better than MLP, and ERT significantly outperforms the three other tree-based models. The outstanding predictive performance of ERT demonstrates the advantages of introducing bagging ensemble and a high degree of randomisation into transition probability modelling. In addition, through variable importance evaluation, we found the strongest explanatory powers of neighbourhood characteristics for all land use transitions; however, the size of the impacts depends on the neighbourhood land use type and the neighbourhood size. Furthermore, socio-economic and policy factors play important roles in transitions ending with high-rise buildings and transitions related to industrial areas.  相似文献   

Selection of plant species for rehabilitation of gypsum mine spoil in arid zone   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A.V. Rao  J.C. Tarafdar 《Journal of Arid Environments》1998,39(4):559-567

Ten species were selected based on their economic value in order to study and compare their growth, nutrient uptake pattern, AM-fungal infection etc. in both mine spoil and normal cultivated soil in pot culture. In general, per cent root infection and number of viable AM fungal spores in the rhizosphere of the plant species grown in mine spoil were higher compared to those in normal cultivated soil. Mine spoil had supported significantly higher growth ofProsopis juliflora,Salvadora oleoidesandCenchrus ciliariscompared to normal soil. Concentrations of phosphorus, potassium and calcium in plants growing on gypsum mine spoil were higher than observed in normal soil. In general, micronutrient concentrations (namely Cu, Zn and Fe) were lower in all the plant species growing in normal soil.Salvadora oleoides,Colophospermum mopaneandPithecellobium dulcewere identified as calcium-loving plants. All the species tested can be employed for rehabilitation of gypsum mine spoil.  相似文献   

甘肃干旱半干旱地区林木蒸散量估算和水分适生度研究   总被引：18，自引：1，他引：17       下载免费PDF全文

陈昌毓  董安祥 《应用气象学报》1998,9(1):79-87

采用张宝堃和H.L.彭曼的气候学方法,对甘肃干旱半干旱区各县、市林木生长期的蒸散耗水量进行了估算,并与实测和调查资料进行了对比,结果表明:两种估算值大致可反映乔木薪炭林和乔木用材林生长对水分的需求。文中还给出了各县、市年和日平均气温≥10℃期间的实际水资源。根据各地林木生长期的耗水量指标和实际水资源,采用实际湿润度方法确定了各地不同气候植被区林木的水分适生度。  相似文献