Assimilation of the FY-4A AGRI Clear-Sky Radiance Data in a Regional Numerical Model and Its Impact on the Forecast of the “21·7” Henan Extremely Persistent Heavy Rainfall     

Lan XU  Wei CHENG  Zhongren DENG  Juanjuan LIU  Bin WANG  Bin LU  Shudong WANG  Li DONG 《大气科学进展》2023,40(5):920-936

Assimilation of the Advanced Geostationary Radiance Imager(AGRI) clear-sky radiance in a regional model is performed. The forecasting effectiveness of the assimilation of two water vapor(WV) channels with conventional observations for the “21·7” Henan extremely heavy rainfall is analyzed and compared with a baseline test that assimilates only conventional observations in this study. The results show that the 24-h cumulative precipitation forecast by the assimilation experiment with the addition ...  相似文献   

The Roles of Low-level Jets in “21·7” Henan Extremely Persistent Heavy Rainfall Event     

Yuhan LUO  Yu DU 《大气科学进展》2023,40(3):350-373

An extremely heavy rainfall event lasting from 17 to 22 July 2021 occurred in Henan Province of China, with accumulated precipitation of more than 1000 mm over a 6-day period that exceeded its mean annual precipitation. The present study examines the roles of persistent low-level jets(LLJs) in maintaining the precipitation using surface station observations and reanalysis datasets. The LLJs triggered strong ascending motions and carried moisture mainly from the outflow of Typhoon In-fa(2021). Th...  相似文献   

基于极端随机树方法的WRF-CMAQ-MOS模型研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

黄丛吾  陈报章  马超群  王体健 《气象学报》2018,76(5):779-789

随着城市化、工业化的快速发展,空气污染已经成为了公众最关注的问题之一。为了提高空气质量预报的准确度,以多尺度空气质量模型（Community Multi-Scale Air Quality,CMAQ）为工具,结合中尺度WRF（Weather Research and Forecast Model）气象预报数据、气象观测数据、污染物浓度观测数据,基于极端随机树方法建立了WRF-CMAQ-MOS（Weather Research and Forecast Model-Community Multi-Scale Air Quality-Model Output Statistics）统计修正模型。结果表明,结合WRF气象预报的CMAQ-MOS方法明显修正了由于模型非客观性产生的模式预报偏差,提高了预报效果。使用线性回归方法不能获得较好的优化效果,选取极端随机树方法和梯度提升回归树方法对模型进行改进和比较,发现极端随机树方法对结合WRF气象要素的CMAQ-MOS模型有较大的提升。针对徐州地区空气质量预报,进一步使用基于极端随机树方法的WRF-CMAQ-MOS模型对2016年1、2、3月的空气质量指数（AQI）及PM_2.5、PM₁₀、NO₂、SO₂、O₃、CO六种污染物优化试验进行验证,发现优化效果最为明显的两种污染物分别是NO₂及O₃,2016年1、2、3月整体相关系数NO₂由0.35升至0.63,O₃由0.39升至0.79,均方根误差NO₂由0.0346减至0.0243 mg/m3,O₃由0.0447减至0.0367 mg/m3。文中发展的WRF-CMAQ-MOS统计修正模型可以有效提升预报精度,在空气质量预报中具有很好的应用前景。   相似文献   

犯罪共生空间的类型识别及其特征分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

柳林  杜方叶  宋广文  龙冬平  姜超  肖露子 《地理科学》2018,38(8):1199-1209

以ZG市公共空间盗窃、入室盗窃、寻衅滋事、接触诈骗、抢劫抢夺犯罪为研究对象,采用K均值聚类法识别不同类型的犯罪共生空间;并通过决策树模型分析了不同犯罪共生空间的特征。结果表明,ZG市犯罪共生空间可划分为4种类型：① 无犯罪类型共生区;② 公共空间盗窃和接触诈骗犯罪共生区;③ 所有类型犯罪共生区;④ 入室盗窃、寻衅滋事和抢劫抢夺犯罪共生区。城市中各异的社会环境和建成环境产生了不同类型的犯罪机会,而且各类社会环境和建成环境之间存在着条件交互性作用。研究结果为制定犯罪的联合防控策略和实现有限警力的合理布控并且提高执法效率提供了理论基础。  相似文献   

桂林靖江王城防雷方案初探     

方琼玉  黎梓华  姚立宏 《气象研究与应用》2007,28(3):59-61

根据靖江王城古建筑物的特点、分布情况及所处的地理环境特征,结合雷击风险评估结果,对不同的保护物划分防雷类别,提出了雷电保护方案。  相似文献   

Experimental Assessment of Gradual Deformation Method     

Ning Liu  Dean S. Oliver 《Mathematical Geology》2004,36(1):65-77

Uncertainty in future reservoir performance is usually evaluated from the simulated performance of a small number of reservoir realizations. Unfortunately, most of the practical methods for generating realizations conditional to production data are only approximately correct. It is not known whether or not the recently developed method of Gradual Deformation is an approximate method or if it actually generates realizations that are distributed correctly. In this paper, we evaluate the ability of the Gradual Deformation method to correctly assess the uncertainty in reservoir predictions by comparing the distribution of conditional realizations for a small test problem with the standard distribution from a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, which is known to be correct, and with distributions from several approximate methods. Although the Gradual Deformation algorithm samples inefficiently for this test problem and is clearly not an exact method, it gives similar uncertainty estimates to those obtained by MCMC method based on a relatively small number of realizations.  相似文献   

深井钻进时井底参数自动遥控系统用传感器的设计研究          下载免费PDF全文

汤凤林  Чихоткин A.В.  Есауленко В.Н.  宁伏龙  段隆臣  Чихоткин В.Ф. 《探矿工程》2021,48(1):42-48

我国正在计划打一口13000 m的特深地质井,以超过目前世界上最深的俄罗斯12262m科拉超深井,意义重大。深井、特别是超深井钻进中,除了钻井设备、钻具(含钻头)之外,钻井工艺和操作技术也非常重要。钻井工艺和操作技术目前主要是利用地面仪表显示的井底参数数据来进行指导的。但是这些数据与井底钻井参数的实际情况可能有较大差异,直接影响技术经济指标的提高。俄罗斯阿斯特拉罕国立技术大学В.Н.Есауленко教授等人,设计出了井底参数自动测量控制系统,其中传感器是必不可少的关键器具。现以方位角传感器设计计算为例对其进行讨论和分析,或许对我国打此特深地质井有一定的参考价值。  相似文献   

西藏申扎早二叠世碳酸盐岩的极低碳稳定同位素及其冷泉指示意义     

安显银  张予杰  朱同兴 《现代地质》2016,30(2):420-425

极低碳稳定同位素是识别地质历史时期古冷泉及其甲烷释放事件的关键证据,目前,世界范围内尚无有关二叠纪冷泉活动的直接证据报道。本研究首次报道了西藏地区拉萨地块早二叠世碳酸盐岩的极低碳同位素数据,δ¹³C_V-PDB值最低可达-34.69‰,碳、氧稳定同位素呈现较好的负相关性,指示为甲烷厌氧氧化作用成因。该碳酸盐岩发育于西藏申扎地区下二叠统昂杰组上段(碎屑岩段),以透镜状碳酸盐岩夹层及碳酸盐质胶结结核产出,可见方解石结晶扇,其碳同位素普遍较结核中碳酸盐胶结物更贫¹³C。推测研究区存在早二叠世古甲烷冷泉渗漏活动,其成因可能与冈瓦纳冰期后温暖海水导致的海洋甲烷水合物藏的失稳释放有关。作为研讨地质历史时期水合物-冰期反馈模型的重要实例,本研究对进一步探讨冰期海平面变化、古海洋化学、古生态和古气候等特殊环境变化事件具有重要的指示意义。  相似文献   

刺参呼吸树的超微结构观察与研究     

刘晓云  包振民  范瑞青  谭金山  高澜 《海洋科学》2005,29(12):25-30

用光镜、扫描电镜和透射电镜观察研究健康刺参（Apostichopus japonicus）呼吸树的形态结构,并观察研究濒死刺参呼吸树的异常,结果显示：刺参呼吸树由外向内依次为体腔上皮、肌层、血腔、内皮细胞和中央腔。体腔上皮细胞游离面有长而不规则的微绒毛,细胞上部吞饮小泡丰富,细胞中常见吞噬体。内皮细胞表面有各种形状的细胞突起,细胞顶浆分泌活跃,细胞内质膜小泡丰富。体腔上皮细胞和内皮细胞中丰富的吞饮小泡和质膜小泡提示这两种细胞具有吸收功能。体腔上皮和内皮下连续成层的基膜围戍呼吸树中封闭的血腔。内皮层与内皮基膜构成呼吸树的呼吸膜,由泄殖腔进入呼吸树中央腔的海水和呼吸树血腔中的血液经此气一血屏障进行气体交换,完成呼吸作用。体腔上皮与上皮下基膜构成体腔液一血液屏障,刺参的体腔液与呼吸树血腔中的血液经此屏障进行物质交换。呼吸树还在渗透压调节和代谢产物排泄中起作用。在濒死刺参的呼吸树中,纤毛虫大量积聚在中央腔中并附着在内皮层上,导致呼吸作用不能正常进行,这可能是当养殖水体恶化时造成刺参患病并死亡的重要原因之一。  相似文献   

How do non-halophyte locust trees thrive in temperate coastal regions: A study of salinity and multiple environmental factors on water uptake patterns     

Han Li  Zhiqing Lan  Han Chen  Jinhui Jeanne Huang 《水文研究》2024,38(3):e15122

Understanding plant water use patterns is crucial for comprehending the dynamics of the soil–plant-atmosphere continuum and evaluating the adaptability of plants across diverse ecosystems. However, there remains a gap in our comprehension of non-halophyte plants' water uptake patterns and driving factors in temperate coastal regions. For this reason, we used locust trees (a widely planted non-halophyte tree species in northern China) as a study subject. We collected water isotope data (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) for locust trees xylem and soil over two consecutive growing seasons. The MixSIAR model was used along with five distinct sets of input data (single isotopes, uncorrected dual isotopes, and corrected dual isotopes incorporating δ²H data obtained by soil water line or cryogenic vacuum distillation methods) to infer water utilization patterns. The results indicated that locust trees primarily absorb shallow soil water (0–20 cm, 29.4% ± 16.9%) and deep soil water (120–180 cm, 24.7% ± 5.8%). Pearson's correlation analysis revealed the key driving factors behind water uptake patterns were vegetation transpiration and soil salinity. Remarkably, the build up of salts in the lower soil layer (60–120 cm) hinders the absorption of water by plants. To prevent high salt concentrations from affecting water uptake in non-halophyte plants, we recommend implementing sufficient irrigation from March to April each year to meet the water needs of plant growth and regulate the accumulation of salts in various soil layers. This study reveals the dynamic water utilization strategy of non-halophyte plants in temperate coastal regions, offering valuable information for water resources management.  相似文献