An evaluation of multi-annual management strategies for ICES roundfish stocks     

Kell  L.T.; Pilling  G.M.; Kirkwood  G.P.; Pastoors  M.A.; Mesnil  B.; Korsbrekke  K.; Abaunza  P.; Aps  R.; Biseau  A.; Kunzlik  P.; Needle  C.L.; Roel  B.A.; Ulrich  C. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2006,63(1):12-24

  相似文献   

水库鱼产力评价标准与模式的研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

焦念志  李德尚 《海洋与湖沼》1993,24(1):79-86

本文在总结国内外已有成果的基础上,运用专家系统和灰色统计方法,初步建立了一套水库鱼产力评价的指标体系、指标权重体系和指标标准体系,首次给出了比较系统和具有普适意义的评价方案;并运用模糊数学方法建立了综合定量评价模式,从而在很大程度上解决了以往评价中由于多指标重迭、交错造成的难判、误判问题,为水库渔业资源的合理开发利用提供了比较科学的依据。  相似文献   

分形分析方法在海冰趋势预测中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

高振会  杨建强  费立淑 《海洋通报》2003,22(4):66-69

根据渤海北部1966——2001海冰冰级年际变化的实际资料，利用R／S分析的原理和方法计算了H指数，建立了R(i)/S(i)与i的关系式，对渤海北部海冰趋势进行了预测分析。结果表明，利用分形分析方法进行海冰趋势预测不仅方法简便，而且结论具有客观性，可以将其作为海冰趋势预测中较为有效的一种方法。  相似文献   

青岛市大气污染时间序列分析预报方法研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

黄磊  王赐震  王建华  于鹏 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2001,31(1):14-20

根据青岛市大气污染监测资料 ,采用时间序列分析方法 ,建立多种预报模型 ,有原序列周期外延法、均生函数周期外延法、均生函数逐步回归法以及自回归预报法等 ,最后提出一种综合预报模型。连续预报试验表明 ,综合预报模型优于任何个别预报模型 ,有较好的预报能力。利用马尔可夫概型对污染状态 (轻、中、重 )进行了分级预报试验 ,也获得良好的效果。  相似文献   

Validating management simulation models and implications for communicating results to stakeholders     

Pastoors  Martin A.; Poos  Jan Jaap; Kraak  Sarah B. M.; Machiels  Marcel A. M. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(4):818-824

  相似文献   

近岸溢油漂移扩散预测方法研究——以胶州湾溢油事件为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

高志刚  李程  李欢  王国松 《海洋通报》2020,39(2):272-280

近些年,由于中国经济的高速发展,原油需求逐年增长,同时海上溢油事故发生的风险也在加剧。海上溢油会严重破坏海洋环境,危害我国经济发展,加强溢油漂移扩散预报研究能够为海上溢油应急响应提供技术支撑。因此,国家海洋信息中心研发了海上突发事件应急一体化预测预警系统。该系统基于GIS平台研发,能够在二维电子海图基础上叠加相关的海洋环境动力要素信息,模拟溢油扩散和漂移态势,同时计算剩余油量,估算溢油面积以及岸线吸附程度等。2013年11月22日,山东黄岛发生输油管道爆炸事故,造成大量原油溢入胶州湾。本文利用该系统结合高分辨率大气模型WRF的三重嵌套技术和海流模型SELFE的非结构化网格加密技术,对事故溢油漂移扩散开展了预测工作。预测结果显示,油污受胶州湾内往复流的影响极大,72 h后,胶州湾内外大部分海域都将存在油污,主要集中在黄岛沿岸海域、团岛及浮山湾附近,预测扫海面积为70.32 km2。经海事部门高分辨率卫星观测结果印证,系统模拟的溢油分布较为合理。该系统的业务化应用为相关海上溢油污染应急工作提供了一定理论依据和参考。  相似文献   

砂质海岸岸滩侵蚀演变模式探讨——以山东南部海岸侵蚀岸段的岸滩演变为例   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

包四林虞志英  刘苍字张国安 《海洋工程》2003,21(3):94-99

在分析山东南部海岸几十年来的地形观测资料的基础上，运用砂质海岸等深线变化预测理论，建立该区的岸滩侵蚀演变预测模型，研究了该区域岸滩演变规律。实测资料验证表明：预测结果合理，基本反映了本区岸滩演变的特征。  相似文献   

The petroleum evaluation of a tectonically complex area: The western margin of the Southeast Basin (France)     

A. Mascle  R. Vially  E. Deville  B. Biju-Duval  J.P. Roy 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》1996,13(8):941-961

The Southeast Basin of France is the thickest onshore French sedimentary basin which contains locally as much as 10 km of Mesozoic-Cenozoic sediment. Basin development occurred in several stages between late Carboniferous and late Cretaceous times. Partial tectonic inversion took place during two compressive events, the so-called ‘Pyrenean’ and ‘Alpine’ phases of late Cretaceous-early Tertiary and late Tertiary ages respectively. They are separated by an intervening stretching event of Oligocene age, which further south resulted in the opening of the western Mediterranean oceanic basin. As a result of this complex tectonic history, structural traps were difficult to image on the seismic data shot during the first phase of exploration prior to 1980. Oil and gas natural seeps, and shows in several wells, indicate that some petroleum systems are, or have been active, at least in some places.The present erosional western margin of the basin is more or less superimposed on the initial Triassic-Jurassic margin. Margin subsidence and Tertiary inversion are discussed using regional sections on which the polyphase history of the entire basin is well shown. These sections are located on three major segments where the Mesozoic margin is either partly preserved (Ardèche), or has been partly inverted in late Tertiary times (Vercors-Chartreuse), or has been completely inverted in early Tertiary times (Corbières-eastern Pyrenees). 1-D ‘Genex’ basin modelling on the Ardèche segment, and 2-D ‘Thrustpack’ structural-maturity modelling in the Vercors-Chartreuse segment are used to further assess the remaining petroleum plays.  相似文献   

废弃海洋桩基平台拆除方案的系统决策研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

阎宏生  郭海涛  韩圣章 《海洋技术学报》2004,23(4):81-84,95

海洋平台拆除是一项复杂的、受多种因素制约的、涉及许多技术领域的综合性系统工程。采取适当的拆除方案是工程安全、经济、环保地进行的基础和保证。针对这一问题，文章对拆除方案的评估进行了系统的研究，从环境、工艺、安全、经济、工期的角度建立了拆除方案评估指标体系，并综合运用群决策层次分析理论和模糊数学理论对拆除方案进行系统的评估。经实例验证，所建立的评估指标体系，可科学、公正、快捷地对方案进行评估，为决策者提供科学的决策基础。  相似文献   

Data assimilation for a coastal area morphodynamic model: Morecambe Bay     

T.R. Scott  D.C. Mason 《Coastal Engineering》2007

This paper investigates the use of data assimilation in coastal area morphodynamic modelling using Morecambe Bay as a study site. A simple model of the bay has been enhanced with a data assimilation scheme to better predict large-scale changes in bathymetry observed in the bay over a 3-year period. The 2DH decoupled morphodynamic model developed for the work is described, as is the optimal interpolation scheme used to assimilate waterline observations into the model run. Each waterline was acquired from a SAR satellite image and is essentially a contour of the bathymetry at some level within the inter-tidal zone of the bay. For model parameters calibrated against validation observations, model performance is good, even without data assimilation. However the use of data assimilation successfully compensates for a particular failing of the model, and helps to keep the model bathymetry on track. It also improves the ability of the model to predict future bathymetry. Although the benefits of data assimilation are demonstrated using waterline observations, any observations of morphology could potentially be used. These results suggest that data assimilation should be considered for use in future coastal area morphodynamic models.  相似文献