Analysis of Fog Probability from a Combination of Satellite and Ground Observation Data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Vincent Guidard  Diane Tzanos 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(6-7):1207-1220

The Cloud Type product, developed by the Satellite Application Facility to support to nowcasting and very short-range forecasting (SAFNWC) of EUMETSAT and based on Météosat-8/SEVIRI, identifies cloud categories, and especially low and very low clouds which are first estimates of areas where fog is likely to occur. This cloud type is combined with precipitation information from radar data and with hourly diagnostic analyses of 2-metre relative humidity and 10-metre wind to elaborate an hourly analysis of fog probability. This analysis provides four levels of fog probability with a 3-kilometre horizontal resolution: No risk, low-level risk, medium-level risk and high-level risk. An evaluation of such fog probability analyses versus a one-year set of French hourly SYNOP reports shows encouraging results (potential of detection = 0.73 for low and medium and high-level risks), even if false alarm ratios remain high. Most of the non-detections occur at twilight and are due to satellite non-detections. Eventually, we show case studies that clearly illustrate the high potential of the method.  相似文献   

应用线性合成概率方法探讨青藏高原北部地区强震趋势     

马玉虎  胡玉 《地震地磁观测与研究》2007,28(6):1-5

基于周期谱分析基础上的线性合成概率预测方法,对青藏高原北部地区Ms≥7.0、Ms≥6.5强震进行了试验性研究,并利用其结果作为预测依据,对青藏高原北部地区强震趋势做了初步估计.利用该方法,本文还对东昆仑断裂带1900年以来的Ms≥7.0强震进行了研究.  相似文献   

关于气象灾害笼罩面积与出现概率的一个定理     

张学文 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2007,1(3):15-18

从气象图表(如天气图)上可以得到某气象灾害(如暴雨、高温,也可以是一般气象现象、要素、变量等)所笼罩的面积占总面积的百分比F,从气象资料中可以得到该气象现象的出现概率p。本文证明:F对时间的平均值等于p对天气图面积的平均值。本文初步讨论了这个定理的应用,还指出对这类问题的深入分析会引出分布函数概念和熵气象学。  相似文献   

Traffic Assignment Forecast Model Research in ITS     

WANG Wei WANG Quan WANG Chao 《地球空间信息科学学报》2007,10(3):213-217

As an important role in the development of ITS, traffic assignment forecast is always the research focus. Based on the analysis of classic traffic assignment forecast models, an improved traffic assignment forecast model, multi-ways probability and capacity constraint (MPCC) is presented. Using the new traffic as- signment forecast model to forecast the traffic volume will improve the rationality and veracity of traffic as- signment forecast.  相似文献   

基于支持向量机的遥感大雾判识   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘年庆  蒋建莹  吴晓京 《气象》2007,33(10):73-79

提出了一种基于支持向量机的卫星遥感数据大雾判识方法:首先通过对风云1D卫星大雾区域的各通道辐射值出现频次进行概率统计,利用其阈值来粗判识大雾;然后在粗判识的基础上通过支持向量机的方法进行大雾细判识;最后利用腐蚀和膨胀的图像处理技术对判识后的图像进行优化处理。在对我国2006年9-12月的65条监测到大雾的风云1D轨道的探测数据进行分析之后,发现大雾判识结果与专家标记吻合。检验结果表明,利用1、2、4、6、7、10通道组合进行粗判识的结果最好,5交叉正确率为89.9849%,TS评分为74.04%。利用上述方法对个例的分析检验表明,基于支持向量机的遥感大雾判识方法是切实可行的。  相似文献   

Development of Seismic Risk Scenarios Based on a Hybrid Method of Vulnerability Assessment   总被引：11，自引：5，他引：6  

Kappos  A. J.  Stylianidis  K. C.  Pitilakis  K. 《Natural Hazards》1998,17(2):177-192

A hybrid methodology of vulnerability analysis is presented, involving elements from both empirical and theoretical methods. A model for correlating analytically calculated structural damage indices to loss (in monetary terms) is also proposed and calibrated against available statistical data. Probability damage matrices derived using this methodology are incorporated into a cost-benefit model tailored to the problem of estimating the feasibility of seismically rehabilitating the existing stock of reinforced concrete buildings in Thessaloniki, Greece. Losses calculated using the suggested procedure are found to be in good agreement with losses incurred during the 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake. The results of the present study also indicate that benefit/cost ratios for reinforced concrete buildings are quite low. Hence, it appears that a pre-earthquake strengthening programme is not economically justifiable.  相似文献   

地震短期预测的概率方法浅议   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7  

张天中 《国际地震动态》1998,(7):1-5

和天气预报相比,地震预测,特别是地震的短临预测更为困难。概率方法真实地反映了地震发生的随机性,真实地反映了人类对于地震认识的局限性,加快短期预测的概率方法研究与应用是十分必要的。概率预测是经验预测、统计预测和物理预测的综合,各类地震预测方法特别是物理预测方法的发展还很不充分,目前仍处于探索阶段。从目前我国地震预测的现状来看,应大力发展统计预测方法。地震目录可为我们提供对背景地震发生率的估计,而前兆的出现使我们可以得到地震发生率大大高于背景发生率的时段,其增益越强,时段越短,越接近于理想预测。前兆和地震之间的关系的统计检验对于概率预测起着十分重要的作用。该文提出,应按实用化的要求逐步规范各种地震预测方法。这对地震预测研究的健康发展是至关重要的。  相似文献   

Metallogenetic characteristics of an unique uranium-tungsten mineralization zone     

Yuhui  Pang 《中国地球化学学报》1998,17(1):69-76

A polymetallic zone dominated by U-W mineralization was found in Northeast Guangxi. Distributed along the east contact zone of a complex granite mass, it extends for about 100 km in length, with more than fifty deposits and prospects embraced. The deposits show a wide range of genetic types, related to the granite, from magmatic (including pegmatite and skarn deposits) through hydrothermal mineralizations (hypo-, meso- and epithermal) all the way to tin placers, constituting a very intact metallogenetic series of granites. The epithermal U-W deposits are considered as a new type for their unique geological and geochemical characters, such as the paragenesis of U and W and the large time gap (> 40 Ma) between ore and granite. This project was financially supported by the Open Lab. of Ore Deposit Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences.  相似文献   

甘肃省伏旱短期气候概率预测   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

董安祥  张存杰  李栋梁 《气象》1998,24(1):3-6

用ＥＯＦ和ＲＥＯＦ将甘肃省信期降水分为７个区域,并在每个区域选取一个代表站,设计出既能反映伏期降水多少,又能反映伏期旱段长度的伏旱强度指数。将伏旱强度与指数与伏旱发生的概率关系起来,通过对大气环流特征指数,地面气象要素等因子的分析,利用逐步回归分析和多级逐步判别分析方法,建立了甘肃省几个代表站的伏期干旱指数和概率预测方程,提出了集成概率预测的概念,最后给出了对伏旱概念率预测进行评估一种方法。  相似文献   

广州降水概率预报   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

谢定升  梁凤仪  易爱民 《气象》1998,24(1):43-46

讨论了长水概率预报的意义,原理和方法,介绍了广州降水概率预报的业务流程及试验效果,并提出深入开展降水概率预报的若干建议。  相似文献