多种风电场风速预报订正方法的适用性研究与集成应用          下载免费PDF全文

徐丽娜  申彦波  冯震  叶虎 《干旱区地理》2022,45(4):1114-1124

以内蒙古中部某风电场为实验风电场,采用随机森林（Random forest,RF）方法、相似误差订正（Analogue correction of errors,ACE）方法以及概率密度匹配方法（Probability density function matching method,PDF）分别对风电场风速预报进行订正及适用性研究。结果表明：3种方法在各季均对中尺度天气预报模式（Weather research and forecasting model, WRF）风速预报具有不同程度的订正效果,RF方法可以有效改善WRF误差较大的问题,但兼具误差过分放大情况,ACE方法和PDF虽然对较大误差的改善能力不及RF方法,但是能够较好地控制误差过分放大问题。此外,3种方法针对小于5 m·s^-1的小风速段,订正效果不理想,随着风速的增加,订正能力逐渐增强。参照预报模型各自的优势,尝试开展多种预报模型的分风速等级集成应用,可以对不同风速等级下的WRF预报起到较好的改善作用。  相似文献   

矿山开采沉陷教学中关于地表移动观测站设计的两点探讨     

王磊  ZHANG  Xian-ni 《北京测绘》2014,(4):51-55

为了保证地表移动观测站设计的可靠性,本文提出采用边界角及其修正量替代移动角和修正量进行观测线长度设计,可作为传统观测站长度设计的有效检核条件;利用沉陷预计方法确定沉陷盆地主断面来设计观测线位置,可有效检核基于传统角量参数设计观测线位置的可靠性。最后将本文提出的观测站设计可靠性检核条件用于某矿工程实践,有效的确保了地表移动观测的可靠性,取得了良好的工程应用效果。  相似文献   

Mapping spatio-temporal flood inundation dynamics at large river basin scale using time-series flow data and MODIS imagery     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2014

Flood inundation is crucial to the survival and prosperity of flora and fauna communities in floodplain and wetland ecosystems. This study tried to map flood inundation characteristics in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, utilizing hydrological and remotely sensed data. It integrated river flow time series and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images to map inundation dynamics over the study area on both temporal and spatial dimensions. Flow data were analyzed to derive flow peaks and Annual Exceedance Probabilities (AEPs) using the annual flood series method. The peaks were linked with MODIS images for inundation detection. Ten annual maximum inundation maps were generated for water years 2001–2010, which were then overlaid to derive an inundation frequency map. AEPs were also combined with the annual maximum inundation maps to derive an inundation probability map. The resultant maps revealed spatial and temporal patterns of flood inundation in the basin, which will benefit ecological and environmental studies when considering response of floodplain and wetland ecosystems to flood inundation.  相似文献   

城市地铁变形监测数据处理     

杨国东  詹福雷 《东北测绘》2014,(2):6-8,11

为确保地铁施工安全进行变形监测是非常重要的手段,而变形监测的最终目的是预测,即对观测物的未来形态进行预报和分析。时间序列的原理是找出事物随时间变化的规律,从而对数据变化趋势做出正确的分析和预报。本文通过对时间序列的研究对长春地铁繁荣路站的变形监测数据进行了分析和预报。  相似文献   

Probability of Sediment Incipient Motion Under Complex Flows     

刘春嵘  邓丽颖  呼和敖德 《中国海洋工程》2010,24(1):93-104

Presented in this paper is a mathematical model to calculate the probability of the sediment incipient motion,in which the effects of the fluctuating pressure and the seepage are considered.The instantaneous bed shear velocity and the pressure gradient on the bed downstream of the backward-facing step flow are obtained according to the PIV measurements.It is found that the instantaneous pressure gradient on the bed obeys normal distribution.The probability of the sediment incipient motion on the bed downstream of the backward-facing step flow is given by the mathematical model.The predicted results agree well with the experiment in the region downstream of the reattachment point while a large discrepancy between the theory and experiment is seen in the region near the reattachment point.The possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.  相似文献   

The role of the hyporheic zone across stream networks     

Steven M. Wondzell 《水文研究》2011,25(22):3525-3532

Many hyporheic papers state that the hyporheic zone is a critical component of stream ecosystems, and many of these papers focus on the biogeochemical effects of the hyporheic zone on stream solute loads. However, efforts to show such relationships have proven elusive, prompting several questions: Are the effects of the hyporheic zone on stream ecosystems so highly variable in place and time (or among streams) that a consistent relationship should not be expected? Or, is the hyporheic zone less important in stream ecosystems than is commonly expected? These questions were examined using data from existing groundwater modelling studies of hyporheic exchange flow at five sites in a fifth‐order, mountainous stream network. The size of exchange flows, relative to stream discharge (Q_HEF:Q), was large only in very small streams at low discharge (area ≈ 100 ha; Q < 10 l/s). At higher flows (flow exceedance probability > 0·7) and in all larger streams, Q_HEF:Q was small. These data show that biogeochemical processes in the hyporheic zone of small streams can substantially influence the stream's solute load, but these processes become hydrologically constrained at high discharge or in larger streams and rivers. The hyporheic zone may influence stream ecosystems in many ways, however, not just through biogeochemical processes that alter stream solute loads. For example, the hyporheic zone represents a unique habitat for some organisms, with patterns and amounts of upwelling and downwelling water determining the underlying physiochemical environment of the hyporheic zone. Similarly, hyporheic exchange creates distinct patches of downwelling and upwelling. Upwelling environments are of special interest, because upwelling water has the potential to be thermally or chemically distinct from stream water. Consequently, micro‐environmental patches created by hyporheic exchange flows are likely to be important to biological and ecosystem processes, even if their impact on stream solute loads is small. Published in 2011 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Efficient methods of discharge measurements in rivers and streams based on the probability concept     

Chao‐Lin Chiu  Shih‐Meng Hsu  Ning‐Chien Tung 《水文研究》2005,19(20):3935-3946

Regularities exist in fluid flows and can be represented by a set of constants. These constants are functions of the parameter of a probability distribution that exhibits resilience and stability under various flow conditions. Together, these regularities form a network and interact with each other, such that if one is known then the others can be determined from it. The regularities and their network explain the various fluid‐flow phenomena and can be used in analysis of rivers and streams. For example, they can be used as the basis to develop simple and efficient methods of discharge measurements as presented herein, which only require velocity sampling at a single point on a water surface or a few points on a single vertical. Because of their simplicity and the short time requirement, these methods can be easily automated for collecting discharge data in unsteady, high flows that are badly needed for real‐time flow forecasting and design of flood control structures, and for advancing the fundamental, scientific knowledge in hydrology. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

集聚型空间点模式结构信息提取研究     

毛政元 《测绘学报》2007,36(2):181-186

空间点模式是一个2维离散点集,点集中的每一个元素代表地球表面一个点状目标的空间位置。当2维离散点集具有集聚特征时,称其为集聚型空间点模式,它与空间聚类、制图综合和空间分析的许多具体应用紧密相关。如何提取集聚型空间点模式的结构信息(集聚子群的个数和对应的集聚中心)是其中尚未彻底解决的问题。作者以几何概率为理论基础,提出测度正方形区域内2维离散点集分布特征的H函数并推导其解析表达式,运用H函数设计和实现了集聚型2维离散点集结构信息提取的通用算法。利用该算法处理一个由居民地坐标数据得到的具有集聚特征的空间点模式,提取出其结构信息并进行可视表达。分别以该空间点模式中的各离散点为顶点和发生元生成Delaunay三角网和Voronoi图,在Delaunay三角网中保留面积最小的前1/10、前1/100三角形的顶点,在Voronoi图中保留面积最小的前1/10、前1/100邻近多边形的发生元,将可视表达的点集结构信息分别与依据Delaunay三角网和Voronoi图得到的结果进行对比分析。结果表明,运用H函数能够有效地提取出集聚型空间点模式的全局性结构信息,而Delaunay三角网和Voronoi图虽然能够反映其局部密度,但在提取全局结构信息时存在局限性。  相似文献   

基于观测误差后验分布的粗差探测的Bayes方法   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

归庆明  许阿裴  李新娜  杜院录  张磊 《测绘科学技术学报》2007,24(2):87-89,92

从观测误差出发,运用3σ-原理提出了一种粗差探测的Bayes方法--基于观测误差的后验概率法.针对非等权独立观测情形,在一定先验分布下推导了观测误差的后验分布;建立了与观测误差有关的后验概率的计算公式;给出了粗差估算的Bayes方法;提出了基于观测误差的后验概率进行粗差探测的实施过程.最后结合算例说明了其效果,并且与其他粗差探测方法进行了比较.大量试验表明,给出的探测粗差的Bayes方法是切实可行的.它不仅有效地发现了粗差,而且结果比较理想.  相似文献   

Eastward subduction of the Indian plate beneath the Indo-Myanmese arc revealed by teleseismic P-wave tomography          下载免费PDF全文

Yu Gao  Jiansi Yang  Yu Zheng 《地震科学（英文版）》2022,35(4):243-262

The deep structure of the eastward-subducting Indian plate can provide new information on the dynamics of the India-Eurasia collision. We collected and processed waveform data from temporary seismic arrays (networks) on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, seismic arrays in Northeast India and Myanmar, and permanent stations of the China Digital Seismic Network in Tibet, Gansu, Qinghai, Yunnan, and Sichuan. We combined these data with phase reports from observation stations of the International Seismological Center on the Indian plate and selected 124,808 high-quality P-wave relative travel-time residuals. Next, we used these data to invert the 3-D P-wave velocity structure of the upper mantle to a depth of 800 km beneath the eastern segment of the arcuate Himalayan orogen, at the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. The results reveal a high-angle, easterly dipping subducting plate extending more than 200 km beneath the Indo-Myanmese arc. The plate breaks off at roughly 96°E; its fragments have passed through the 410-km discontinuity (D410) into the mantle transition zone (MTZ). The MTZ beneath the Tengchong volcanic area contains a high-velocity anomaly, which does not exceed the Red River fault to the east. No other large-scale continuous subducted plates were observed in the MTZ. However, a horizontally spreading high-velocity anomaly was identified on the D410 in some regions. The anomaly may represent the negatively buoyant 90°E Ridge plate or a thickened and delaminated lithospheric block experiencing collision and compression at the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. The Tengchong volcano may originate from the mantle upwelling through the slab window formed by the break-off of the subducting Indian continental plate and oceanic plate in the upper mantle. Low-velocity upper mantle materials on the west side of the Indo-Myanmese arc may have supplemented materials to the Tengchong volcano.  相似文献