安徽省地震宏观异常日报集成系统     

周振贵  王俊  孙亮亮  祝怡红 《地震地磁观测与研究》2017,38(6):136-139

安徽省地震宏观异常日报集成系统是由Android的App、MySQL数据库和PHP网站组合而成的应用管理系统。从设计思路、框架及主要技术实现出发,介绍集成系统的应用成效。  相似文献   

Copula-based identification of the non-stationarity of the relation between runoff and sediment load     

Shengzhi Huang  Pei Li  Qiang Huang  Guoyong Leng 《国际泥沙研究》2017,32(2)

It is important to identify the non-stationarity in the relation between runoff and sediment load under the backdrop of the changing environment. This relation helps to further understand the mechanisms of runoff and sediment yield. A copula-based method was used to detect possible change points in the relation between runoff and sediment load in the Wei River Basin (WRB), China, where soil erosion is a very severe issue. The modified Mann-Kendall trend test method was applied to obtain the trends of runoff and sediment load spanning 1960–2010 at monthly and annual timescales. Finally, the causes of the identified non-stationarity of the relation between runoff and sediment load were roughly analyzed from the perspective of climate change and human activities. Results indicated that:(1) the runoff and sediment load in the Jinghe and Wei rivers were generally characterized by noticeably decreasing trends at both monthly and annual timescales;(2) both the Jinghe and Wei rivers had a common change point (2002), implying that the stationarity of the relation between runoff and sediment load in the Jinghe and Wei River was invalid; (3) human activities including increasing water consumption and growing application of soil conservation practices are dominant factors resulting in non-stationarity in the rela-tion between runoff and sediment load in the WRB. This study provides a new idea for identifying the non-stationarity of multivariate relation in the hydro-meteorological field under the background of the changing environment.  相似文献   

基于裂隙尖端放电机制的深部岩体损伤自电特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

刘静  刘盛东  曹煜 《地球物理学报》2018,61(1):323-330

在大规模深部岩体损伤过程中发生的裂隙尖端放电现象往往引发地下雷电,对该现象发生机理、表现规律的揭示有助于地震、岩爆等的临灾预报.不同于在岩土体中液固耦合界面上发生的自然电场异常机理,在岩土体内部发生的裂隙尖端放电可谓是引发自然电场异常的另一重要微观机制.本文基于现有裂隙尖端放电的研究成果,详细阐述了裂隙尖端放电发生的过程,解释了岩体损伤过程中自然电场异常产生的微观机理,并结合室内实验成果论述了自电位的主要特征;进行了理论推导,认为在大尺度岩体连续损伤过程中,自电位具有含脉冲状波动并整体下降的特征;开展了原位测试,结果证明人工采掘扰动下的深部岩体连续破坏的过程中,自电位在破坏前期缓慢下降,在破坏过程中会出现脉冲状波动,随着破坏程度的加剧整体呈现波动中下降的规律,与理论推导、室内实验结论都相符.对比室内实验和原位测试成果发现,随着研究目标的空间尺度由mm级别扩展到m的级别,自电位波动的幅值也从数十个mV扩展到数百甚至上千mV,故认为在利用自电位波动规律来预测岩体破坏状态时,须受研究对象的空间尺度的约束.此外,在原位测试中发现,自电位对岩体损伤过程的响应较直流电阻率而言具有时域上的超前优势,并对此现象进行了解释.  相似文献   

华北克拉通地壳结构及动力学机制分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

武岩  丁志峰  王兴臣  朱露培 《地球物理学报》2018,61(7):2705-2718

本文对布设在华北克拉通三个陆块的199个宽频带台站记录的远震数据进行了接收函数计算.利用H-κ迭代方法获得了该区域基岩地区的地壳结构,平滑处理后作为背景结构模型中的基岩地区地壳结构;利用相邻算法对沉积层地区的接收函数进行了波形拟合计算,获得了沉积层结构,平滑后作为背景结构模型中的沉积层结构;结合前人的研究成果,完善了研究区域的背景结构模型.以此模型为基础,对接收函数进行了CCP（Common Conversion Point,共转换点）叠加成像,获得了Moho面成像结果,对比沉积层的成像结果发现：西部陆块中鄂尔多斯块体东部地区地壳厚度较大,约为42 km,泊松比较低,小于0.24,为长英质含量较多的地壳层;位于中部陆块的山西地堑地壳厚度小于鄂尔多斯块体,且变化较大,西侧地壳厚度约为40 km,东侧重力梯度带附近地壳厚度迅速减薄至36 km左右,张家口-怀来-大同一带出现了地壳的局部抬升,地壳厚度等值线基本以北北东方向为主,与构造带方向基本一致,地堑内泊松比约为0.26~0.28,前人对此区域的层析成像研究结果表明太行山隆起和阴山隆起存在壳内低速层,推测为地壳部分熔融以及上地幔物质上涌造成的;东部陆块中渤海湾盆地的地壳厚度较薄,约为32 km,部分地区小于30 km,其中冀中坳陷带地壳厚度最薄,约为28 km,沉积层基底分布与Moho面分布呈镜像对称趋势,沉积层较厚地区的地壳较薄,推测东部陆块在太平洋板块俯冲作用下,存在北西-南东向的拉张作用,使其内发育了大量断陷盆地.  相似文献   

川西高温水热活动区深部热结构的地球物理分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

李午阳  张健  唐显春  天骄  王迎春  郭琦 《地球物理学报》2018,61(7):2926-2936

川西高温水热活动区是地热学研究的典型地区之一,该区温泉、热泉点分布广泛,这些温泉大多沿北西-南东向的金沙江断裂、德格-乡城断裂、甘孜-理塘断裂、鲜水河三条主断裂呈条带状分布.对此高温水热活动区开展地热学分析,是研究青藏高原"东构造结"深部地球动力学过程、开发利用川西高原地热资源的重要基础,具有重要的科学研究意义和实际应用价值.本文针对实测氦同位素所发现的壳幔热结构比,依据重力、航空磁法、地震资料,采用反演莫霍面、居里面深度等方法,对川西高温水热活动区的深部热结构进行了分析.同时对中高温热泉密集出露的巴塘、理塘以及康定水热活动区的典型壳幔热流构与深部背景场进行了对比研究.结果表明,地表氦同位素热流估算的深部热流结构与地球物理异常结果保持较好的对应关系.川西地区热流结构中地壳、地幔的热贡献比较接近：巴塘地区平均Q_c/Q=51.38%、理塘地区平均Q_c/Q=54.39%、康定地区平均Q_c/Q=42.42%.川西地区表现出了"温壳温幔"型的深部热结构,但温地壳背景下形成较高地表热流的原因有待进一步研究.  相似文献   

基于全局弱式无单元法直流电阻率正演模拟   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

麻昌英  柳建新  刘海飞  郭荣文  曹创华 《地球物理学报》2017,60(2):801-809

全局弱式无单元法是在有限单元法基础上发展起来的一种数值模拟方法,它采用局部支持域内的节点信息来构造形函数实现局部精确逼近,摆脱了单元,仅依赖于节点信息,具有预处理简单、模拟精度高、灵活性强的特点,适用于复杂地电条件下直流电阻率正演模拟.本文采用RPIM构造直流电阻率全局弱式无单元法形函数,利用RPIM形函数推导了直流电阻率全局弱式无单元法方程.然后,编制了直流电阻率全局弱式无单元法正演模拟Fortran程序,利用该程序对典型的地电模型进行了正演模拟,并将正演结果与基于线性插值的FEM正演结果及解析解进行对比,结果表明采用RPIM形函数的全局弱式无单元法用于直流电阻率正演模拟的正确性及有效性,且在同等条件下,全局弱式无单元法模拟精度高于矩形剖分的FEM,更有利于指导电法勘探的数据解译;利用该程序对复杂地电模型进行了正演模拟,结果表明全局弱式无单元法对复杂地电模型模拟效果良好,适应性强,灵活性高,可任意加密节点提高模拟精度.  相似文献   

An evaluation of the Arctic clouds and surface radiative fluxes in CMIP6 models     

Jianfen Wei  Zhaomin Wang  Mingyi Gu  Jing-Jia Luo  Yunhe Wang 《海洋学报(英文版)》2021,40(1):85-102

To assess the performances of state-of-the-art global climate models on simulating the Arctic clouds and surface radiation balance, the 2001–2014 Arctic Basin surface radiation budget, clouds, and the cloud radiative effects(CREs) in 22 coupled model intercomparison project 6(CMIP6) models are evaluated against satellite observations. For the results from CMIP6 multi-model mean, cloud fraction(CF) peaks in autumn and is lowest in winter and spring, consistent with that from three satellite observation products(Cloud Sat-CALIPSO, CERESMODIS, and APP-x). Simulated CF also shows consistent spatial patterns with those in observations. However,almost all models overestimate the CF amount throughout the year when compared to CERES-MODIS and APP-x.On average, clouds warm the surface of the Arctic Basin mainly via the longwave(LW) radiation cloud warming effect in winter. Simulated surface energy loss of LW is less than that in CERES-EBAF observation, while the net surface shortwave(SW) flux is underestimated. The biases may result from the stronger cloud LW warming effect and SW cooling effect from the overestimated CF by the models. These two biases compensate each other,yielding similar net surface radiation flux between model output(3.0 W/m~2) and CERES-EBAF observation(6.1 W/m~2). During 2001–2014, significant increasing trend of spring CF is found in the multi-model mean,consistent with previous studies based on surface and satellite observations. Although most of the 22 CMIP6 models show common seasonal cycles of CF and liquid water path/ice water path(LWP/IWP), large inter-model spreads exist in the amounts of CF and LWP/IWP throughout the year, indicating the influences of different cloud parameterization schemes used in different models. Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project(CFMIP)observation simulator package(COSP) is a great tool to accurately assess the performance of climate models on simulating clouds. More intuitive and credible evaluation results can be obtained based on the COSP model output. In the future, with the release of more COSP output of CMIP6 models, it is expected that those inter-model spreads and the model-observation biases can be substantially reduced. Longer term active satellite observations are also necessary to evaluate models' cloud simulations and to further explore the role of clouds in the rapid Arctic climate changes.  相似文献   

A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates          下载免费PDF全文

Michael J. Hollaway  Keith J. Beven  Clare Mc W. H. Benskin  Adrian L. Collins  Robert Evans  Peter D. Falloon  Kirsty J. Forber  Kevin M. Hiscock  Ron Kahana  Christopher J. A. Macleod  Mary C. Ockenden  Martha L. Villamizar  Catherine Wearing  Paul J. A. Withers  Jian G. Zhou  Nicholas J. Barber  Philip M. Haygarth 《水文研究》2018,32(17):2779-2787

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.  相似文献   

考虑视觉传达效果的震后区域三维图像虚拟重建          下载免费PDF全文

刘旭 《地震工程学报》2018,40(4):826-832

传统二维震害图像方法对震后区域进行研究时,由于其拍摄角度具有局限性,震后区域图像的视觉效果不理想。提出基于三维激光扫描技术的震后区域三维虚拟重建方法,采用三维激光扫描仪测量震后区域,获取该区域的点云数据,采用Cyclone软件合并点云数据后,得到震后区域拼接后的整体点云图,将该图点云数据进行去体外孤点、去噪声点以及点云取样等处理后实施封装,在封装的点云数据上采用Sketch模型实施贴图操作,实现视觉传达效果理想的震后区域三维图形的虚拟重建。实验证明,所提方法对震后区域的三维图像虚拟重建结果精度高、视觉效果好。  相似文献   

基于大数据的地震损失价值评估模型设计          下载免费PDF全文

张加庆 《地震工程学报》2018,40(2):356-362

破坏性地震往往导致严重的经济损失及人员伤亡,对地震损失价值评价有助于震前找出抗震弱点,提高抗震能力,实现减轻地震灾害损失的目的。传统空间模型在地震数据处理过程中,无法处理大数据对空间尺度选择的干扰,存在地震损失评估结果偏差大以及波动性高的弊端。因此,在云计算平台下,提出基于大数据的地震损失价值评估模型设计,对模型HAZ-China大数据的服务层次、地震应用服务层以及HAZ-China大数据体系结构进行设计,为用户提供震前、震时以及震后的地震损失价值评估服务。模型采用HBase分布式数据库实现大数据的存储和分析,设计房屋震害数据库以及云计算模型,通过考虑大数据因素的地震灾害损失综合评估过程,实现地震损失价值的准确评估。实验结果说明,所设计模型可实现地震损失价值的准确评估,具有较高的评估精度和稳定性。  相似文献