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991.
基于内蒙古荒漠草原9个气象站逐日降水和美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)/美国国家大气研究中心(National Center for Atmospheric Research,NCAR)再分析资料,利用统计方法分析了该地区1960—2020年连续无降水事件变化特点及异常年份环流特征。结果表明:(1)连续无降水事件最多出现在夏季,但平均持续日数和最大持续日数在夏季最短,短期连续无降水事件和较长期降水事件相间出现是夏季降水分配格局,而其他季节则相反。(2)研究区年均无降水日数为304.1 d·a?1,年均连续无降水事件次数为39.6次·a?1,年均连续无降水事件平均持续日数为8.0 d·a?1,年均最大持续日数为43.7 d·a?1。(3)近61 a连续无降水事件3个参数变化不显著,但2005—2020年连续无降水事件次数显著增加而平均持续日数则显著减小。(4)年平均持续日数和最大持续日数均与连续无降水事件次数呈显著负相关关系,而平均持续日数和最大持续日数呈显著的正相关。(5)异常连续无降水事件期间对流层中高层有明显的温度、湿度和高度异常。 相似文献
992.
利用已有的二维雷暴云起电模式,加入气溶胶模块,建立一个完善的雷暴云起电模式.结合SEET个例,初步探讨了气溶胶浓度对雷暴云内各种水成物粒子荷电情况的影响.发现气溶胶的浓度与雷暴云内云滴、霰粒、冰雹以及雨滴等水成物粒子在空间所携带的最大电荷面密度值以及电荷量有很好的正相关性;同时气溶胶粒子浓度的增加使得雨滴在空间携带电荷量达到峰值的时间有一定提前. 相似文献
993.
为考察概率密度匹配法 (PDF方法) 对中国区域卫星反演降水产品系统误差订正的适用性,基于逐日和逐时我国地面观测降水量资料,引入PDF方法,分别对逐日0.25°×0.25°水平分辨率和逐时0.1°×0.1°水平分辨率的CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique) 卫星降水产品的系统误差进行订正。在分析CMORPH卫星降水产品误差特征的基础上,根据两种资料不同的时空分辨率和误差特点,调整概率密度匹配时选取样本的时间和空间范围,设计相应的订正方案。评估结果表明: PDF方法订正后, 两种分辨率卫星降水资料在中国区域系统误差均显著减小,达到了理想的订正效果。在我国站点稀疏的西部地区,订正后的CMORPH卫星降水产品仍保持卫星观测的降水空间分布,降水量也明显接近于地面观测降水量。可见,PDF方法是中国区域卫星反演降水产品系统误差订正的一种有效方法。 相似文献
994.
995.
The Longquan–Shan fault and the Huya fault are two major neighboring faults of the Longmen–Shan fault zone where the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred. To study the influence of the Wenchuan event on these two active faults, we calculate changes of Coulomb stress on the Longquan–Shan fault and the Huya fault caused by the Wenchuan mainshock. Our results indicate that the Coulomb stress in the northern section (Zone A) of the Longquan–Shan fault is increased by 0.07–0.10 bars, that in the middle section (Zone B) by 0.04–0.11 bars, and that in the southern section (Zone C) shows almost no change. For the Huya fault, the Coulomb stress is decreased by 0.01–0.03 bars in the northern section (Zone A), 0.10–0.35 bars in the middle section (Zone B), and nearly 0.5 bars in the southern section (Zone C). The epicenter distribution of small earthquakes (ML ⩾ 1.5) on the Longquan–Shan fault and the Huya fault after the Wenchuan earthquake is consistent with the distribution of the Coulomb stress change. This implies that the Wenchuan earthquake may have triggered small events on the Longquan–Shan fault, but inhibited those on the Huya fault. We then use the rate/state friction law to calculate the occurrence probability of future earthquakes in the study region for the next decade. They include the distribution of b-values, magnitude of completeness (Mc), the background seismicity rate, a value of Aσn and the duration for the transient effect (ta) in the study region. We also estimate the earthquake occurrence probabilities on the neighboring faults after the Wenchuan earthquake. Our results show that, the occurrence probability of future earthquakes in the Longquan–Shan has a slight increase, being 7% for M ⩾ 5.0 shocks during the next decade, but the earthquake probability in the Huya region is reduced obviously, being 5–20%, 7–26% and 3–9% for M ⩾ 5.0 shocks during the next decade in sections A, B and C of the Huya fault, respectively. 相似文献
996.
In probabilistic stability analyses of concrete dams founded on rock, the uplift pressure is often a parameter of major importance. In previous literature, it has been suggested that assessing uplift with pore pressure measurements, instead of using empirical assumptions, could improve the calculated dam safety. This paper presents a coherent methodology to investigate whether incorporating pore pressure measurements has any impact on the calculated dam safety, based on Bayesian linear regression of pore pressure data in combination with series-system and the first-order reliability method. The study concludes that the probability of sliding failure is closely related to the probability of an extreme increase in uplift. Hence, measured uplift should only be incorporated while this probability remains sufficiently small, which requires proper programs both for uplift monitoring and for maintenance of drains and grout curtains. 相似文献
997.
Wetlands are a key archive for paleoclimatic and archeological work, particularly in arid regions, as they provide a focus for human occupation and preserve environmental information. The sedimentary record from 'Ayn Qasiyya, a spring site on the edge of the Azraq Qa, provides a well-dated sequence through the last glacial–interglacial transition (LGIT) allowing environmental changes in the present-day Jordanian desert to be investigated robustly through this time period for the first time. Results show that the wettest period at the site preceded the last glacial maximum, which itself was characterised by marsh formation and a significant Early Epipaleolithic occupation. A sedimentary hiatus between 16 and 10.5 ka suggests a period of drought in the region although seasonal rains and surface waters still allowed seasonal occupation of the Azraq region. Archeological evidence suggests that conditions had improved by the Late Epipaleolithic, about the time of the North Atlantic Younger Dryas. The changes between wet and dry conditions at the site show similarities to patterns in the eastern Mediterranean and in Arabia suggesting the Jordan interior was influenced by changes in both these regions through the LGIT climatic transition. 相似文献
998.
999.
西北太平洋海温与广东省汛期降水的关系 总被引:23,自引:11,他引:23
将西北太平洋分为8个海区,分析了广东省汛期(4-9月)降水与各海区海温的关系,并用因子分析法对9-2月各海区的相互关系进行了分析,发现降维后头4个主因子的方差贡献占总方差的82.23%;对主因子的载荷矩阵进行了极大方差旋转,对头4个主因子的物理意义进行了初步的解释。最后建立了汛期各月降水与海温的预报方程,经试报使用,高于近10年的平均业务预报水平,对广东省的汛期降水短期气候预测有较好的参考价值。 相似文献
1000.
基于WRF集合预报系统开发了概率匹配平均降水产品,选取了山东省2014—2016年共13次强降水过程,检验评估了概率匹配平均法在山东省强降水预报中的综合表现。结果表明:对于不同的强降水过程,各预报产品的预报能力差异较大,尤其是对暴雨以上量级降水的预报存在较大偏差;概率匹配平均相对集合平均,对大雨以上量级降水预报有明显改善,较WRF确定性预报产品也有一定提高,对强降水预报具有一定指示意义;该方法的改进主要体现在对不同量级降水的调整上,尤其是强降水的落区,相对集合平均增大了强降水的范围和强度,但对整个区域的总降水量预报没有很好的改进作用。 相似文献