A Hierarchy of Spatial Marginality Through Spatial Filtering     

《The Professional geographer》2013,65(4):460-470

Abstract

Taking a clue from classic time-series decomposition, this article demonstrates a spatial filtering and search technique that permits the partitioning of a measure of marginality, here measured as the percent of the population living at less than 50 percent of the poverty level, into macro, meso, and micro components. This approach supports theory that has argued for scale-specific explanations of spatial marginality. The technique also offers promise for many other types of investigations such as disease incidence, microclimate dynamics, and consumer preferences.  相似文献   

居民感知视角的农业遗产地旅游社会文化影响研究——以桂林龙脊平安寨为例（英文）     

唐晓云  于晓辉  章东明 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2013,4(3):267-274

对大多数社区型农业文化遗产地的旅游发展前景而言,居民对旅游发展的态度是至关重要的。论文以稻作梯田农业文化遗产地——广西龙脊平安寨为个案,采用田野调查和统计分析方法,通过测算案例地居民对社会文化变化的态度值,探讨了该类型旅游地居民的旅游开发社会文化变化的感知及其对旅游发展的影响。结果表明:(1)旅游开发将使农业遗产地的社会文化发生较大变化,且总体上呈正向发展;(2)不同特征居民对社会文化的态度存在差异,但总体上对变化持积极态度;(3)家庭收入、旅游移民、社会治安、建筑服饰等文化因素的变化将直接影响居民对该地未来旅游发展的态度;(4)只要能正确引导、调控和疏导其变化方向,旅游地社会文化变化的负面影响可以减少乃至消除,并促进旅游地更好的发展。论文还对旅游开发中的社会文化影响调控提出了相应的对策建议。  相似文献   

Hydro-climatic variability and forest fires in Mexico’s northern temperate forests     

José Návar  Liliana Lizárraga-Mendiola 《Geofísica Internacional》2013,52(1):5-20

Global warming is likely modifying the hydrological cycle of forested watersheds. This report set as objectives to: a) assess the hydrological variables interception loss, I, potential and actual evapo-transpiration, E, Et, runoff, Q, and soil moisture content, θ; b) evaluate whether these variables are presenting consistent trends or oscillations that can be associated to global warming or climate variability; and c) relate θ to the number of wildfires and the burned area in Durango, Mexico. A mass balance approach estimated daily variables of the water cycle using sub-models for I and Et to calculate Q and θ for a time series from 1945 to 2007. Regression and auto-regressive and moving averaging (ARIMA) techniques evaluated the statistical significance of trends. The cumulative standardized z value magnified and ARIMA models projected statistically similar monthly and annual time series data of all variables of the water cycle. Regression analysis and ARIMA models showed monthly and annual P, I, E, and Et, Q, and θ do not follow consistent up or downward linear tendencies over time with statistical significance; they rather follow oscillations that could be adequately predicted by ARIMA models (r² ≥ 0.70). There was a consistent statistical association (p ≤ 0.05) of θ with the number of wildfires and the area burned regardless of the different spatial scales used in evaluating these variables. The analysis shows seasonal variability is increasing over time as magnifying pulses of dryness and wetness, which may be the response of the hydrological cycle to climate change. Further research must center on using longer time series data, testing seasonal variability with additional statistical analysis, and incorporating new variables in the analysis.  相似文献   

Snow effects on alpine vegetation in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

《International Journal of Digital Earth》2013,6(1):58-75

Understanding the relationships between snow and vegetation is important for interpretation of the responses of alpine ecosystems to climate changes. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is regarded as an ideal area due to its undisturbed features with low population and relatively high snow cover. We used 500 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) datasets during 2001–2010 to examine the snow–vegetation relationships, specifically, (1) the influence of snow melting date on vegetation green-up date and (2) the effects of snow cover duration on vegetation greenness. The results showed that the alpine vegetation responded strongly to snow phenology (i.e., snow melting date and snow cover duration) over large areas of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Snow melting date and vegetation green-up date were significantly correlated (p < 0.1) in 39.9% of meadow areas (accounting for 26.2% of vegetated areas) and 36.7% of steppe areas (28.1% of vegetated areas). Vegetation growth was influenced by different seasonal snow cover durations (SCDs) in different regions. Generally, the December–February and March–May SCDs played a significantly role in vegetation growth, both positively and negatively, depending on different water source regions. Snow's positive impact on vegetation was larger than the negative impact.  相似文献   

The integration of geophysical and enhanced Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data into a rule-based,piecewise regression-tree model to estimate cheatgrass beginning of spring growth     

《International Journal of Digital Earth》2013,6(2):118-132

Cheatgrass exhibits spatial and temporal phenological variability across the Great Basin as described by ecological models formed using remote sensing and other spatial data-sets. We developed a rule-based, piecewise regression-tree model trained on 99 points that used three data-sets – latitude, elevation, and start of season time based on remote sensing input data – to estimate cheatgrass beginning of spring growth (BOSG) in the northern Great Basin. The model was then applied to map the location and timing of cheatgrass spring growth for the entire area. The model was strong (R² = 0.85) and predicted an average cheatgrass BOSG across the study area of 29 March–4 April. Of early cheatgrass BOSG areas, 65% occurred at elevations below 1452 m. The highest proportion of cheatgrass BOSG occurred between mid-April and late May. Predicted cheatgrass BOSG in this study matched well with previous Great Basin cheatgrass green-up studies.  相似文献   

大连地区阵风系数特征分析     

李昱茜  杨景泰  隋玉秀  邬晓冬  张黎红  孙立娟  王蕾  肖剑 《气象与环境学报》2022,38(5):98-105

利用2015年5月至2020年4月辽宁省大连地区9个国家气象站、2017年165个区域气象站逐10 min测风资料, 从风向、风级、月际变化、日变化、空间分布和天气影响系统等对大连地区最大、平均、最小阵风系数进行统计分析。结果表明: 1—12月平均阵风系数的变化范围为1.66~1.77, 秋末冬初平均阵风系数偏大, 春夏季节偏小; 与冷空气相对应风向的平均阵风系数大于与暖空气相对应的风向; 随着风级的增大, 最大、最小阵风系数向平均阵风系数收敛; 不同风级下阵风系数的频率分布均呈单峰型分布, 风级越大, 分布范围越窄。除西南风外, 其他风向的阵风系数均表现出白天大、夜间小的特点。大连地区阵风系数具有明显的地域特点, 东南和西北部沿海区域的阵风系数比内陆和西南沿海偏小, 风向基本不影响阵风系数的空间分布。大连的大风过程多受海上气旋和高压前部双系统共同影响, 气旋、台风以及雷暴大风的平均阵风系数大于同风级的平均值。  相似文献   

基于多模式集成冬半年气温预报偏差修正     

齐铎  刘松涛  赵广娜  高梦竹 《气象与环境学报》2022,38(3):119-126

卡尔曼滤波递减平均方法对模式直接输出的气温预报进行订正,能有效提高预报准确率,但有时会造成显著负订正的现象,使订正预报效果反而不及模式直接输出。利用消除偏差集合平均方法(BREM)选择最优滑动训练期对2019年10月至2020年4月ECMWF预报(EC)、经过卡尔曼滤波递减平均法订正的预报(EC_COR)及中央台网格指导预报(SCMOC)等3种气温预报在黑龙江省的结果进行集成,并将BREM方法对EC_COR的修正效果进行评估,结果表明:不同预报结果都表现为冬季和夜间预报的准确率更低,气温偏低的11月至翌年1月更倾向于表现出预报较实况系统性偏高的特点。BREM方法能有效地修正EC_COR对EC负订正的现象,且可显著高于任何一种参与集成的单一预报效果。可在对单一模式进行卡尔曼滤波递减平均订正的基础上,进一步提升预报质量。另外,利用集成方法对高质量预报产品的融合(不局限于模式直接输出预报或是订正预报)可获取较单一预报更优的预报结果。  相似文献   

改进的修正预测法预报电离层     

刘军  柴洪洲  常宜峰  唐江波 《测绘学院学报》2011,(1)

利用自回归移动平均ARMA模型的线性最小方差预测法预报电离层存在的主要问题是极值点处预测误差较大。通过对模型阶数上限及定阶准则的选取进行实验分析,确定了合适的模型阶数并建立了相应模型。修正预测法可利用新信息对线性最小方差预测法的预测结果进行修正。这是一种短期预报方法,每次向前预测一步即2 h,但结果并不理想。考虑到电离层变化的周期性,为了进一步减小极值点处预测误差,提出了改进的修正预测法。实验表明,改进的修正预测法预测结果与原始值符合较好。  相似文献   

玉林夏季高温天气气候特征与环流形势分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘金裕  林确略  陆丽安  孙素琴 《气象研究与应用》2011,32(4):6-12,106

利用近50年（1961～2010年）广西玉林站的气温、风、相对湿度、日照等地面观测资料及历史天气图、NCEP／NCAR再分析资料,统计分析了玉林夏季高温天气的气候特征并探讨出现高温天气的大气环流形势。结果表明：（1）玉林高温天气主要出现在6-9月,3d以上的持续高温主要出现在7～8月,且高温日数的年际差异很大。玉林高温...  相似文献   

中国长序列资料测站月降水、月均温相关联系的稳定性分析     

姜玉印  楚翠娇 《贵州气象》2011,35(3):7-12

选取我国长序列资料测站点中月降水与月均温资料较全的6个站点：西安、广州、汉口、沈阳、重庆、上海,以10a为一次成组实验,时域分辨率定为季,计算出各季月降水与月均温的相关系数,然后用相关分析和贝努里概型分析月均温与月降水之间的相关联系,初步得出我国长序列资料测站点春、夏、秋、冬月降水与月均温的相关稳定性联系。结果表明：①我国月降水与月均温在春、夏、秋、冬季均存在相关关系,以夏、秋季节最显著且为负相关,故我国常见干热或湿凉型夏、秋季;②我国华南地区春季月降水与月均温负相关关系显著,故常呈现干热或湿冷型春季;西北地区冬季月降水与月均温负相关关系较为明显,常呈现干热或湿冷型冬季。  相似文献