专项气象服务经济效益的评价理论与技术     

蔡久忠  徐芬 《成都信息工程学院学报》1997,(4)

当前，由于缺乏对气象服务投入量与产出量准确而完整的统计，要对气象服务的各种经济效益作出总体评价是困难的。然而，在专项气象服务中，却不乏原始、完整而准确的资料。作者从此出发，讨论了专项气象服务经济效益评价的理论。并通过实地调查，以彭州市气象局几项专项气象服务为例探讨了评价技术。  相似文献   

Evidence of climatic warming in the southern Urals region derived from borehole temperatures and meteorological data     

Inessa V. Golovanova  Robert N. Harris  Galina V. Selezniova  Petr Stulc 《Global and Planetary Change》2001,29(3-4)

Thirty borehole temperature–depth profiles in the central and southern Urals, Russia were scrutinized for evidence of ground surface temperature histories. We explored two inversion schemes: a simple ramp inversion in which solutions are parameterized in terms of an onset time and magnitude of change and a more sophisticated functional space inverse algorithm in which the functional form of the solution is left unspecified. To enhance and potentially identify latitudinal differences in the ground surface temperature signal, we subdivided the data into three groups based on geographic proximity and simultaneously inverted the borehole temperature–depth logs. The simultaneous inversions highlighted 13 temperature–depth logs that could not both fit a common ground surface temperature history and a priori models within reasonable bounds. Our results confirm that this is an effective way to reduce site-specific noise from an ensemble of boreholes. Each inversion scheme gives comparable results indicating locally variable warming on the order of 1°C starting between 1800 and 1900 AD. Similarly surface air temperature records from 12 nearby meteorological stations exhibit locally variable warming also on the order of 1°C of warming during the 20th century. To explore the degree to which borehole temperatures and surface air temperature (SAT) time series are responding to the same signal, we average the SAT data into the same three groups and used these averages as a forcing function at the Earth's surface to generate synthetic transient temperature profiles. Root mean square (RMS) misfits between these synthetic temperature profiles and averaged temperature–depth profiles are low, suggesting that first-order curvature in borehole temperatures and variations in SAT records are correlated.  相似文献   

Partial derivatives of surface wave phase velocities for flat anisotropic models     

V. Maupin 《Geophysical Journal International》1985,83(2):379-398

Summary. Surface wave behaviour in flat anisotropic structures is first illustrated by performing an exact computation on a simple two-layer model. The variational procedure of Smith & Dahlen is then used to compute the partial derivatives of surface wave phase velocities with respect to the elastic parameters in more realistic earth models. Linear relationships between the partial derivatives for a general anisotropic structure and those for a transversely isotropic structure are derived. When considering waves propagating in a fixed direction, there are only four independent derivatives for Rayleigh waves, and two for Love waves. To avoid the lack of resolution in an inverse method, we propose to use physically constrained models. These results are illustrated by using a model with hexagonal symmetry and a symmetry axis oriented either vertically or horizontally. Quasi-Love- and quasi-Rayleigh-wave partial derivatives are computed for both axis orientations. Modes up to the second overtone and periods ranging between 45 and 130 s have been considered. Finally, anomalies of phase velocity are computed in an oceanic model made of 1/6 oriented olivine crystals with horizontal or vertical preferred orientations of the a -axis.  相似文献   

形状误差圆柱度的优化计算     

何真 《广东海洋大学学报》1996,(1)

建立了简明的圆柱度数学模型，并采用优化方法进行求解，为圆柱度误差值的评定提供了较理想的计算方法。  相似文献   

A stepwise method for determining the number of component distributions in a mixture     

Yu-Sheng Hsu  Joseph J. Walker  David E. Ogren 《Mathematical Geology》1986,18(2):153-160

This paper considers the problem of estimatingm, the number of components in a finite mixture of distributions from a parametric family. A step-up procedure using the bootstrap method is proposed. Some properties of the procedure are illustrated with simulation studies. An example of the method, applied to orientation of beach clasts, is given.  相似文献   

Study on numerical simulation to water lowering in an open coal mine digging     

Yanjun ZHANG Fenglong ZHANG Full QI Fuquan NI 《东北亚地学研究》2006,9(2):199-203

In view of the situation of excavation of open coal mine for the underground water disaster,we should carry out simulation studies for the numerical value of the water lowering project and improve the accuracy and the level of the water lowering project.On the basis of the hydrological geological conditions of certain open mine digging,a more reasonable seepage numerical model was built according to MODFLOW.It was simulated in advance that the process of the confined water level descending with the time,and combining with the actual observations to test the correctness of the model.The calculation showed that the results coincided well with the results of actual measurement.Based on this,different water lowering numerical simulations were built for the open coal mine digging.It could be simulated and forecast that the changes of the groundwater level in drainage process within and outside the mine pit,and it was quantitatively assessed that the possible water lowering result of the opencast water drainage process,which provide an important basis for the actual water lowering project and the possible project disposal.  相似文献   

Inversion of multimode surface wave data: evidence for sub-lithospheric anisotropy     

Jean-Jacques Lévêque  Michel Cara 《Geophysical Journal International》1985,83(3):753-773

Summary. Multiparameter inversions of multimode dispersion data are performed for two large regions: the Pacific Ocean and North America. Anisotropy is taken into account by considering transversely isotropic structures with a vertical axis of symmetry. Two fundamental questions are studied in detail: (1) how to make the inverted models consistent when using different sets of parameters, (2) what is the significance of transversely isotropic inversion for the actual Earth's structure? It is proved that full consistency of the inverted models can be achieved by properly taking into account some a priori informations on the model and it is shown that the use of transversely isotropic models with vertical axis of symmetry does not cause severe limitations when interpreting the data. The models we have obtained are discussed in the light of these investigations. Considering an olivine-rich upper mantle, we make a tentative interpretation of these models in terms of preferred orientation of the a -axis of the crystals in one fixed horizontal direction.  相似文献   

广西芒场锡多金属矿田稳定同位素组成对矿床成因探讨     

邹锡青  王思源 《南方国土资源》1993,(2)

笔者曾对广西芒场锡多金属矿田的稳定同位素进行研究。本文根据硫、铅、氢、氧、碳等稳定同位素组成和锶的初始值提供的信息.探讨了矿床成因。并结合矿田矿床地质特征、控矿条件及有关统计参数,参考前人对矿床认识的基础上,修正提出了该矿田混合热液成矿模式,可供类似矿床研究和找矿的参考。  相似文献   

Prediction of lateral variability in fracture intensity using multicomponent shear-wave surface seismic as a precursor to horizontal drilling in the Austin Chalk   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michael C. Mueller 《Geophysical Journal International》1991,107(3):409-415

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Simulation of double cold cores of the 35°N section in the Yellow Sea with a wave-tide-circulation coupled model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xia Changshui  Qiao Fangli  Zhang Mengning  Yang Yongzeng  Yuan Yeli 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2004,22(3):292-298

Based on the MASNUM wave-tide-circulation coupled numerical model, the temperature structure along 35°N in the Yellow Sea was simulated and compared with the observations. One of the notable features of the temperature structure along 35°N section is the double cold cores phenomena during spring and summer. The double cold cores refer to the two cold water centers located near 122°E and 125°E from the depth of 30m to bottom. The formation, maintenance and disappearance of the double cold cores are discussed. At least two reasons make the temperature in the center (near 123°E) of the section higher than that near the west and east shores in winter. One reason is that the water there is deeper than the west and east sides so its heat content is higher. The other is invasion of the warm water brought by the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) during winter. This temperature pattern of the lower layer (from 30m to bottom) is maintained through spring and summer when the upper layer (0 to 30m) is heated and strong thermocline is formed. Large zonal span of the 35°N section (about 600 km) makes the cold cores have more opportunity to survive. The double cold cores phenomena disappears in early autumn when the west cold core vanishes first with the dropping of the thermocline position. Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (No. G1999043809) and the National Science Foundation of China (No. 49736190).  相似文献