Climate change: long-term targets and short-term commitments     

Jan Corfee-Morlot  Niklas Hhne 《Global Environmental Change》2003,13(4):277-293

International negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change could take several different approaches to advance future mitigation commitments. Options range from trying to reach consensus on specific long-term atmospheric concentration targets (e.g. 550 ppmv) to simply ignoring this contentious issue and focusing instead on what can be done in the nearer term. This paper argues for a strategy that lies between these two extremes. Internationally agreed threshold levels for certain categories of impacts or of risks posed by climate change could be translated into acceptable levels of atmospheric concentrations. This could help to establish a range of upper limits for global emissions in the medium term that could set the ambition level for negotiations on expanded GHG mitigation commitments. The paper thus considers how physical and socio-economic indicators of climate change impacts might be used to guide the setting of such targets. In an effort to explore the feasibility and implications of low levels of stabilisation, it also quantifies an intermediate global emission target for 2020 that keeps open the option to stabilise at 450 ppmv CO₂ If new efforts to reduce emissions are not forthcoming (e.g. the Kyoto Protocol or similar mitigation efforts fail), there is a significant chance that the option of 450 ppmv CO₂ is out of reach as of 2020. Regardless of the preferred approach to shaping new international commitments on climate change, progress will require improved information on the avoided impacts climate change at different levels of mitigation and careful assessment of mitigation costs.  相似文献   

江西省东乡火山岩区成矿地质、地球化学特征及找矿潜力     

晏俊灵  江俊杰  张娟  吴正昌  朱细刨 《物探与化探》2012,36(4):534-538

东乡火山岩盆地近年来不断发现金银铜多金属矿床（点）。根据盆地内典型矿床地质、地球化学特征,结合1∶20万区域地球化学资料和1∶5万土壤测量圈出的地球化学异常地段,估算了盆地内可富集的金属资源量,并圈出了有远景的找矿靶区。  相似文献   

贵州镇远地区钾镁煌斑岩产出控制因素浅析   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

杨光忠 《地质与勘探》2013,49(4):696-702

贵州镇远马坪钾镁煌斑岩为我国发现的第一个含原生金刚石的钾镁煌斑岩,其时代为加里东中期。根据区内当时沉积建造的特点,结合钾镁煌斑岩常包含早期捕虏体的情况,尤其是区内钾镁煌斑岩主要产于加里东期北东向背斜构造翼部拐点范围的事实,认为区内钾镁煌斑岩的侵位应发生在加里东期沉积建造结束褶皱构造开始时刻。加里东构造运动先是沉积建造的塑性变形褶皱造山,岩层能干化后才开始发育大量断裂构造。纵弯褶皱在挤压作用背景下,因褶皱拐点存在拉伸和剪切的应力而构成透入性构造软弱部位,被深部岩浆热力所突破而成为上涌侵位及喷发通道。区域上,四堡期东西向基底断裂构造控制区内钾镁煌斑岩东西向带状分布,而加里东期褶皱及其拐点控制钾镁煌斑岩体(群)的产出,因此金刚石的找矿勘查应主要在有金刚石找矿信息的褶皱构造拐点范围开展。  相似文献   

Explaining global patterns and trends in marine protected area (MPA) development     

Helen E. Fox  Carrie S. Soltanoff  Michael B. Mascia  Kelly M. Haisfield  Alfonso V. Lombana  Christopher R. Pyke  Louisa Wood 《Marine Policy》2012

The relative paucity and heterogeneous distribution of marine protected areas (MPAs) indicates the need for better understanding of factors that foster MPA establishment at local, sub-national, and national levels. The relationship between national-level MPA establishment and geographic, ecological, social, and political factors that may drive patterns and trends in MPA establishment were assessed. A country's coastline length is the strongest predictor of both the number and spatial extent of MPAs. Controlling for coastline, the Human Development Index (HDI) and spatial overlap with designated conservation priority areas are positively correlated with MPA establishment. Surprisingly, some factors influencing MPA establishment in case studies, such as percentage of fishers within a population, were not correlated with MPA establishment on a national scale. These national dynamics explain a relatively small proportion of variation, however, indicating that other biological or social factors, as well as sub-national processes, also influence MPA establishment. Positive and negative outliers illuminate the importance of policy engagement at both national and local levels. Ensuring a supportive enabling environment at the national or even multi-national level can enhance success at the local level.  相似文献   

芜湖市土地利用综合效益评价   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

李玉伟  程先富 《云南地理环境研究》2008,20(4):94-98

通过建立芜湖市土地利用综合效益评价指标体系,利用相关分析法确定指标间的相关系数进而确定各评价指标权重,构建芜湖市土地利用效益综合评价模型及预测模型,最后运用数理统计方法对结果进行分析。分析：1990～2005年芜湖市土地利用综合效益水平总体处于上升趋势,土地利用综合效益指数达到94．3。结果表明：芜湖市土地利用正沿着一条以生态建设为中心,生态、社会、经济建设为一体的可持续的道路发展,并且成果显著。预测：2010年芜湖市土地利用综合效益指数达到99．6,但是增加幅度较往年减少。建议：由于芜湖市土地利用经济效益波动较大,政府要协调好经济建设与生态建设、社会建设的关系。  相似文献   

基于GIS的军事目标专题研究     

王寿彪  杨桄  叶怡  童涛  李昕 《测绘与空间地理信息》2012,35(11):28-31

目标情报是重要的侦察情报组成部分,目标专题研究对目标情报的管理和分析具有重要作用。本文提出一种基于GIS的专题军事目标研究策略,通过专题制图可视化管理专题军事目标情报,融合地理信息、社会经济信息、目标情报特征属性信息,以地图形式直观反映侦察国家或区域范围内某专题属性的目标情报。在组件接口功能分析基础上,研究了军事目标遥感影像情报数据库检索提供的专题目标信息转化为空间数据的流程,及目标专题图的制作方法。最后,基于矢量化思想研究了组合目标的子目标管理。  相似文献   

羌塘盆地构造特征及油气远景初步分析   总被引：25，自引：3，他引：22       下载免费PDF全文

黄继钧  伊海生  林金辉 《地质科学》2004,39(1):1-10

羌塘盆地为一大型沉积盆地,基底为双层结构,基底构造具两坳夹一隆及断凸断凹特征。盆地盖层由中泥盆统—第三系组成,盖层中褶皱、断裂发育,具分带性,主变形期为燕山—喜马拉雅期。盆地经历长期演化,早期为拉张型盆地、晚期为挤压型盆地。盆地生油条件良好,具多种构造圈闭和良好盖层,构造圈闭形成时间与烃源岩排烃时间基本同步,具有良好的油气成藏条件。  相似文献   

Contraction and convergence of in-use metal stocks to meet climate goals     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

The foundations of modern society are based on metals, yet their production is currently placing considerable strain on the Earth’s carrying capacity. Here, we develop a century-long scenario for six major metals (iron, aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, and nickel) harmonized with climate goals, with the goal of establishing science-based targets. We show that for the metal sector to contribute proportionally to emission reductions targets of the industrial sector, global in-use metal stocks need to converge from the current level of around 4 t/capita to about 7 t/capita. This will require today’s high-income countries to contract their per capita stock from current levels of about 12 t/capita to make room for growth in countries that are presently classified as middle- and low-income countries. In such a contraction and convergence scenario, primary production of all six metals will peak by 2030, and secondary production will surpass primary production by at least 2050. Consequently, cumulative ore requirements over the 21st century will remain below currently identified resources, implying that natural ore extraction will be limited by emissions budgets before existing resources can be depleted. Importantly, realizing such system changes will require urgent and concerted international efforts involving all countries, but specific responsibilities will vary according to income level. Namely, wealthy countries will need to use existing metal stocks more intensively and for longer periods to reduce stock replacement demand, while poor countries will need to develop long-lasting and material-efficient infrastructure to curtail stock expansion demand in the first half of the 21st century.  相似文献   

Surface Temperature Changes Projected by FGOALS Models under Low Warming Scenarios in CMIP5 and CMIP6     

Shang-Min LONG  Kai-Ming HU  Gen LI  Gang HUANG  Xia QU 《大气科学进展》2021,38(2):203-220

To meet the low warming targets proposed in the 2015 Paris Agreement,substantial reduction in carbon emissions is needed in the future.It is important to know how surface climates respond under low warming targets.The present study investigates the surface temperature changes under the low-forcing scenario of Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP2.6)and its updated version(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,SSP1-2.6)by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System(FGOALS)models participating in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMIP6,respectively).In both scenarios,radiative forcing(RF)first increases to a peak of 3 W m^?2 around 2045 and then decreases to 2.6 W m^?2 by 2100.Global mean surface air temperature rises in all FGOALS models when RF increases(RF increasing stage)and declines or holds nearly constant when RF decreases(RF decreasing stage).The surface temperature change is distinct in its sign and magnitude between the RF increasing and decreasing stages over the land,Arctic,North Atlantic subpolar region,and Southern Ocean.Besides,the regional surface temperature change pattern displays pronounced model-to-model spread during both the RF increasing and decreasing stages,mainly due to large intermodel differences in climatological surface temperature,ice-albedo feedback,natural variability,and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation change.The pattern of tropical precipitation change is generally anchored by the spatial variations of relative surface temperature change(deviations from the tropical mean value)in the FGOALS models.Moreover,the projected changes in the updated FGOALS models are closer to the multi-model ensemble mean results than their predecessors,suggesting that there are noticeable improvements in the future projections of FGOALS models from CMIP5 to CMIP6.  相似文献   

面向对象的船载激光扫描数据船舶目标检测方法     

邵磊  董广军  姚强强  张阿龙 《测绘科学技术学报》2017,(5):481-485

提出了一种基于对象的船载激光扫描数据内河船舶目标检测方法。该方法基于船舶目标的高程信息和几何特征,利用投影和图像形态学运算方法快速确定包含船舶目标的兴趣区域;然后针对船舶目标数据的空间分布特征,对兴趣区域点云数据进行欧式距离分割和优化处理,生成实体对象,并构建高差、外包围盒和局部密度等特征构成的向量,采用支持向量机进行二元分类,提取出船舶目标。该方法成功地检测出船载激光扫描数据中的船舶目标,船舶目标检测的准确率较高。  相似文献