遥感信息与作物模型结合在冬小麦区域模拟中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

郭建茂  王琦  施俊怡  郑腾飞  杨佳 《大气科学学报》2014,37(2):237-242

遥感数据与作物模型结合是当前农业信息技术应用研究的重要内容和发展趋势之一,能够解决单独利用遥感或作物模型无法解决的问题。为了开展大范围、区域性作物生长过程的模拟和产量预测,首先对作物模型WOFOST进行了订正和验证,使得调整后的模型适于模拟河南新乡县冬小麦生长;根据实际生产分三类情形模拟新乡县2002—2003年度冬小麦的生长发育状况;利用全生育期内能获取的Landsat-7 ETM+数据反演叶面积指数,结合WOFOST模型的模拟情况,确定每个像元对应的冬小麦的生长状况,从而在像元上实现了WOFOST模型对冬小麦生长的模拟;最后对照比较本研究方法的结果与当年新乡县冬小麦的统计情况,结果相近,验证了本文研究方法的技术可行性。  相似文献   

2011/2012年冬季中国气温异常的成因及前兆信号   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

谭桂容  王腾飞 《大气科学学报》2014,37(1):65-74

采用国家气候中心整理的全国160站月平均气温资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及NOAA全球海温资料,在探讨1986年以来中国冬季气温异常机理基础上,对2011/2012年冬季气温异常特征及其前兆信号进行分析。结果表明:地面西伯利亚高压、东亚冬季风及500 hPa乌拉尔山与贝加尔湖南侧的异常环流等系统是影响中国冬季气温的主要中高纬环流系统,而中低纬环流系统主要包括西太平洋副高环流和印缅槽。前期热带印度洋和中东太平洋关键区海温异常与后期冬季气温关联的环流系统有密切的关系:前期夏季7、8月西印度洋海温偏高时,冬季西伯利亚高压将偏强,有利于冬季风偏强和中国冬季气温偏低;而当8—10月中东太平洋海温偏高时,西太平洋副高将偏强偏大偏西,北界位置偏北,印缅槽偏强,中国气温容易偏高,反之亦然。两者对后期环流的影响存在一定的独立性,中国冬季地面气温异常是它们共同作用的结果。  相似文献   

2013/2014年东亚冬季风异常偏弱的可能成因   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

司东  李清泉  柳艳菊  王遵娅  袁媛  王东阡 《气象》2014,40(7):891-897

2005年之后东亚冬季风连续7年强度偏强,而2013/2014年冬季,东亚冬季风强度突然由强转弱,原因可能与前期秋季北极海冰的异常有关,受2013年秋季北极海冰异常影响,冬季西伯利亚高压偏弱,进而导致东亚冬季风偏弱以及我国气温偏高。季内,东亚冬季风强度变化显著,前冬偏弱,后冬偏强。受冬季风季节内变化影响,我国前冬暖、后冬冷;此外,前冬暖、后冬冷还受到北太平洋上空阻塞高压的异常活动影响,北太平洋地区的阻塞高压加强西移至日界线以西,导致东亚地区经向型环流加强,改变了前冬以纬向型为主的环流,前冬高纬地区堆积的冷空气向东亚地区侵袭。加之,前冬我国气温偏高,导致后冬我国多地降温显著,气温由偏高转偏低。而阻塞高压的西移可能与平流层环流的异常活动有关。  相似文献   

通过软硬变化检测识别冬小麦   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

朱爽  张锦水  帅冠元  喻秋艳 《遥感学报》2014,18(2):476-496

提出一种软硬变化检测的作物识别方法 SHLUCD(Soft and Hard Land Use/Cover Change Detection Method)。该方法利用多期遥感影像能够有效表达作物的生长物候特征,以达到在离散变化区(即纯净像元区,包括完全转换成作物的突变区域和非作物区域)和连续变化区(即渐变区,混合像元区,是部分转化为作物的区域)准确进行作物的识别。在北京市选择一个研究区,以冬小麦为研究对象,选用2011年10月6日(播种期)和2012年4月16日(拔节期)两期环境减灾1号卫星影像,分别采用硬变化检测方法 HLUCD(Hard Land Use/Cover Change Detection Method)、软变化检测方法 SLUCD(Soft Land Use/Cover Change Detection Method)和SHLUCD进行冬小麦的识别。实验结果表明:在不同尺度窗口下,SHLUCD较传统方法表现出较明显的优势,具有更低的均方根误差RMSE(SHLUCD为[0.14,0.07],HLUCD为[0.15,0.07],SLUCD为[0.16,0.08])和偏差bias(SHLUCD为-0.0008,HLUCD为-0.007,SLUCD为0.014)和更高的决定系数R2(SHLUCD为[0.68,0.86],HLUCD为[0.62,0.86],SLUCD为[0.60,0.86])。针对冬小麦突变区域、冬小麦渐变区域和非冬小麦区域分别进行评价,表明SHLUCD识别精度接近各区最佳的识别方法,进一步验证了SHLUCD的灵活性和适用性。SHLUCD方法在离散变化区能够通过土地覆盖类型状态变化来有效地识别出冬小麦,在连续变化区可识别出土地覆盖的状态变化程度定量表达冬小麦的丰度,是其他作物多时相遥感变化检测的前期实验基础。  相似文献   

A near‐annual palaeohydrological study based on testate amoebae from a sub‐alpine mire: surface wetness and the role of climate during the instrumental period     

Mariusz Lamentowicz  Willem Van Der Knaap  Łukasz Lamentowicz  Jacqueline F. N. Van Leeuwen  Edward A. D. Mitchell  Tomasz Goslar  Christian Kamenik 《第四纪科学杂志》2010,25(2):190-202

We present the first testate amoeba‐based palaeohydrological reconstruction from the Swiss Alps, and the first depth to the water table (DWT) calibration dataset for this region. Compared to existing models, our new calibration dataset performs well (RMSEP = 4.88), despite the length of the water table gradient covered (53 cm). The present‐day topography and vegetation of the study mire Mauntschas suggest that it is partly ombrotrophic (large Sphagnum fuscum hummocks, one of which was the coring site) but mostly under the minerotrophic influence of springs in the mire and runoff from the surrounding area. Ombrotrophic Sphagnum fuscum hummocks developed at the sampling site only during the last 50 years, when testate amoebae indicate a shift towards dry and/or acid conditions. Prior to AD 1950 the water table was much higher, suggesting that the influence of the mineral‐rich water prevented the development of ombrotrophic hummocks. The reconstructed DWT correlated with Pinus cembra pollen accumulation rates, suggesting that testate amoebae living on the mire and P. cembra growing outside of it partly respond to the same factor(s). Finally, temperature trends from the nearby meteorological station paralleled trends in reconstructed DWT. However, contrary to other studies made on raised bogs of northwestern Europe, the highest correlation was observed for winter temperature, despite the fact that testate amoebae would more logically respond to moisture conditions during the growing season. The observed correlation with winter temperature might reflect a control of winter severity on surface moisture during at least the first part of the growing season, through snow melt and soil frost phenomena influencing run‐off. More ecohydrological work on sub‐alpine mires is needed to understand the relationships between climate, testate amoebae and peatland development. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Evidence for climatic variability and its impact on human development during the Neolithic from Loughmeenaghan,County Sligo,Ireland     

Susann Stolze  Walter Dörfler  Thomas Monecke  Oliver Nelle 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(4):393-403

High‐resolution pollen and geochemical analyses conducted on a sediment profile from a small lake in County Sligo, Ireland, revealed that human development during the Neolithic was influenced by pronounced climatic oscillations. The primeval woodland around the lake experienced a considerable transformation coinciding with the elm decline at 3810 BC. The subsequent increase in summer temperatures and decrease in precipitation favoured wheat cultivation in the lake's catchment area, which was practised for approximately 140 years. A shift towards pastoral farming took place with the establishment of exceptionally dry conditions between 3650 and 3560 BC, when lake level and influx of allochthonous material were notably low. The onset of cool and wet conditions at the transition from the Early to Middle Neolithic possibly caused the initial decline of human activity in the area. Periods of particularly high precipitation during the Middle and early Late Neolithic contributed to the abandonment of the area by the first farmers. Comparison of the proxy record from the study site with other palynological and archaeological records from Ireland suggests that climatic variability on the decadal to centennial scale represented a primary control on the nature and duration of farming practices during the Neolithic. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

新疆吐鲁番胜金店墓地小麦遗存加工处理方式初探     

李晶静  张勇  张永兵  王龙  蒋洪恩 《第四纪研究》2015,35(1)

脱粒是谷物加工处理的重要环节之一.本文选择新疆吐鲁番胜金店墓地M9墓葬出土大量保存完好的小麦遗存进行原始脱粒方式分析,并尝试结合现代小麦原始脱粒方式模拟实验,将现代模拟实验结果与古代材料进行对比分析,从而初步探讨新疆吐鲁番地区先民的小麦脱粒方式.本文首先对胜金店墓地M9墓葬出土的小麦遗存进行初步分类,将不同的小麦脱粒产品与副产品(麦秆、花序轴、小穗轴等)进行分析和统计;其次设计并完成现代小麦脱粒模拟实验,包括手搓、徒手摔打、木棍击打等3种相对原始的小麦脱粒方式,统计不同脱粒方式所产生的小麦加工产品与副产品的组合比例;将现代模拟实验所得结果与M9墓葬出土小麦遗存进行进一步对比分析.研究结果表明,在距今约2000多年前,新疆吐鲁番胜金店先民可能使用木棍击打方式对小麦进行脱粒.  相似文献   

2019/2020年冬季我国暖湿气候特征及成因分析     

赵俊虎  宋文玲  柯宗建 《气象》2020,46(7):982-993

2019/2020年冬季,我国大部分地区气温显著偏高,降水异常偏多,气候总体表现为“暖湿”的异常特征。异常成因分析表明：2019/2020年东亚冬季风强度较常年同期偏弱,西伯利亚高压异常偏弱,季节内冬季风强度阶段性变化特征显著;北极极涡收缩于极地,强度偏强,AO为异常偏强的正位相,乌拉尔山阻塞高压活动偏弱,东亚槽偏弱,欧亚中高纬以纬向环流为主;西太平洋副热带高压强度偏强、位置偏西偏北,印缅槽阶段性活跃,二者有利于太平洋和印度洋水汽向我国输送。受北半球环流异常的影响,我国冬季出现了“暖湿”的异常特征。进一步对东亚冬季风偏弱的可能原因分析表明：2019年秋冬季赤道中太平洋暖海温发展,2019年10月至2020年1月Ni〖AKn~D〗o3.4指数均大于0.5℃,这种类中部型El Ni〖AKn~D〗o海温异常有利于激发偏强、偏北的西北太平洋反气旋,进而抑制了东亚冬季风的发展和南下;此外,冬季北半球极涡收缩于极地,强度偏强,AO持续异常偏强的正位相,均不利于乌拉尔山阻塞高压的发展,且东亚大槽明显偏弱,共同导致了欧亚中高纬地区以纬向环流为主,东亚冬季风偏弱。  相似文献   

Wintertime Cyclone Activity and Its Relation to Precipitation over China          下载免费PDF全文

CHEN Lei  TAN Ben-Kui  Nils Gunnar KVAMSTΦ  Ola M. JOHANNESSEN 《大气和海洋科学快报》2013,6(5):387-393

The authors examined the variability in wintertime cyclone activity and storm tracks and their relation to precipitation over China for the period 1951–2006 using the observational data.Two apparent modes of variability were assumed for the cyclone activity and storm tracks.The first mode describes the oscillation in the strength of the storm tracks in East Asia,which significantly increased since the mid-1980s,whereas the second mode describes a seesaw oscillation in the storm track strength between the Central-Southeast China and northern East Asia.The storm tracks over the Central-Southeast China have increased since the late 1960s.The possible causes for the variation of the cyclone activity and storm tracks are also explored.It is shown that wintertime precipitation,which has increased since the mid-1980s,concentrates in Central-Southeast China.The enhancement may be caused by the first mode of variability of storm tracks,whereas the interannual variability of precipitation may be linked to the second mode of the storm track variability.  相似文献   

Two Opposite Extreme Events in Seasonal Mean Winter Rainfall over East China during the Past Three Decades   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

GUAN Zhao-Yong  JIN Da-Chao 《大气和海洋科学快报》2013,6(5):240-247

In this study,the extremes of winter seasonal mean precipitation have been investigated by using daily precipitation data from 91 stations in East China,the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR)monthly reanalysis,and sea surface temperature data from the Hadley Centre for 1979–2007.The largest anomalous rainfall amount was observed in regions south of the Yangtze River.In the most recent three decades,extreme events in the seasonal mean winter precipitation occurred in 1985 and 1997.Because it was influenced mainly by a La Ni a event,the precipitation in 1985 showed a deficit following a stronger winter monsoon.The rainfall amount in 1997 was influenced by El Ni o and was significantly larger than normal with a weaker winter monsoon.Both the circulation anomalies and wave energy dispersions during the winters of 1985 and 1997 differed significantly.In 1985,the North Atlantic Oscillation anomalously excited the Eurasian-Pacific teleconnection and circumglobal teleconnection phenomena.Consequently,Rossby wave energy propagated along the north and south branches of the westerlies,strengthening the East Asian trough along with a stronger winter monsoon,which facilitated the wintertime dry extreme in East China.In1997,however,Rossby wave energy propagated from low latitudes northeastward into the southern part of China,resulting in a weaker winter monsoon and the wettest winter.The results of this study will be helpful for future monitoring and prediction of extreme winter rainfall events in East China.  相似文献