El Nio位相期间印度洋海温异常对中国南部初夏降水及初夏亚洲季风影响的数值模拟研究     

肖子牛  晏红明 《大气科学》2001,(2)

基于中国科学院大气物理研究所的ＩＡＰ ９Ｌ大气环流模式，设计并完成了赤道太平洋暖异常海温和印度洋地区的不同结构异常海温的强迫试验．以研究在 Ｅｌ Ｎｉｏ位相期间印度洋不同海温异常分布对初夏亚洲季风及我国南部地区初夏降水的影响。结果表明：ＥＩＮｉｏ位相期间印度洋异常海温的作用是不可忽视的。在 Ｅｌ Ｎｉｏ位相期间，印度洋不同的海温结构对越赤道气流异常，对印度、中南半岛及中国南方的降水分布有重要的影响。利用ＮＣＥＰ的资料进行合成分析，进一步证实了数值模拟结果的可靠性。  相似文献   

SOI和El Nino与湘潭汛期洪涝的关系     

戈忠恕  周传喜  周本贵  林明丽 《广东气象》2001,(2):16-18

本文研究了湘潭汛期（4～9月）洪涝与南方涛动指数（SOI）和厄尔尼诺（ElNino）事件的遥相关联系。结果表明，南方涛动指数异常偏负（弱）以及厄尔尼诺事件的滞后影响对湘潭汛期洪涝的短期气候预报有很好的指示性。在统计分析的基础上，我们建立了日常业务应用的湘潭汛期洪涝预报物理模型。  相似文献   

近40年秦岭南北地区气候变化及与El Nino/La Nina事件相关性分析   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

殷淑燕 《山地学报》2002,20(4):493-496

通过对近40年来秦岭南北地区气候变化及与El Nino/Ln Nina事件相关性研究发现，秦岭南北地区气温与降水同步波动，但波动幅度有差别。二者都有暖干化趋势，秦岭以北变暖程度超过秦岭以南，而秦岭以南年降水量的绝对减少量大于秦岭以北，两地年平均气温降水量差值有缩小趋势。Ln Nina事件对秦岭南北地区的影响大于El Ninona事件，La Nina年年平均气温明显下降，超过极显著相关水平，而降水增多。El Nino年气温略有升高趋势，降水略有减少趋势，但达不到统计上的相关水平。  相似文献   

台风“利奇马”不同区域降水极端性特征及成因分析     

郭云谦  王毅  沈越婷  杨舒楠  陈涛  宫宇 《气象科学》2020,40(1):65-77

利用常规气象观测资料、卫星及雷达拼图以及NCEP分辨率为1°×1°的再分析资料,对浙江和山东两个区域不同的极端降水特征及其成因进行诊断对比分析。结果表明:浙江极端降水表现出“高效”的热带降水系统特征,山东极端降水是一次长时间,中等强度的“大陆锋面型”降水。台风近海对称性和对流明显增强;同时,其西北行移速较同期台风偏慢,导致行进方向上长时间受螺旋雨带影响;受超强台风厚实云墙影响,登陆前后浙江等地风雨激增;另外,双台风及沿海山地地形对浙江降水有增幅作用。而山东地区主要受台风北侧稳定维持倒槽和西风槽结合影响,出现极端降水。敏感性分析发现山东降水和台风“第一象限”低层偏南急流强度相关性好,而台风环流持续维持、高度场的密集梯度及降水的潜热反馈共同导致低层急流(>20 m·s-1)长时间维持;同时,西风带高空槽和台风倒槽势力相当,形成稳定“锋区”;锋前多条带状对流持续向北发展,形成“列车效应”;后期冷空气侵入台风中心后山东北侧依然维持较好环流配置。上述条件共同维持了山东地区持续性的较强“锋面降水”。副高、西风槽及台风环流的强度对比是本轮台风降水预报的关键因素。  相似文献   

Different Summer Rainfall Anomaly Patterns in Northeast China Associated with Two Kinds of El Niño Events     

王钦  李双林 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2020,26(2):223-230

The relationship between summer rainfall anomalies in northeast China and two types of El Ni?o events is investigated by using observation data and an AGCM. It is shown that, for different types of El Ni?o events, there is different rainfall anomaly pattern in the following summer. In the following year of a typical El Ni?o event, there are remarkable positive rainfall anomalies in the central-western region of northeast China, whereas the pattern of more rainfall in the south end and less rainfall in the north end of northeast China easily appears in an El Ni?o Modoki event. The reason for the distinct differences is that, associated with the different sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) along the equatorial Pacific, the large-scale circulation anomalies along east coast of East Asia shift northward in the following summer of El Ni?o Modoki events. Influenced by the anomalous anticyclone in Philippine Sea, southwesterly anomalies over eastern China strengthens summer monsoon and bring more water vapor to Northeast China. Meanwhile, convergence and updraft is strengthened by the anomalous cyclone right in Northeast China in typical El Ni?o events. These moisture and atmospheric circulation conditions are favorable for enhanced precipitation. However, because of the northward shift, the anomalous anticyclone which is in Philippine Sea in typical El Ni?o cases shifts to the south of Japan in Modoki years, and the anomalous cyclone which is in the Northeast China in typical El Ni?o cases shifts to the north of Northeast China, leading to the “dipole pattern” of rainfall anomalies. According to the results of numerical experiments, we further conform that the tropical SSTA in different types of El Ni?o event can give rise to observed rainfall anomaly patterns in Northeast China.  相似文献   

El Ni(n)o和La Ni(n)a事件对东亚冬、夏季风循环的影响   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

陈文 《大气科学》2002,26(5)

通过合成的El NiNo和La NiNa的分析发现,一般一个El Nino或La Nina事件大致可以分成爆发前的冬季、发展期的夏季、盛期时的冬季和衰亡期的夏季四个阶段.在此基础上利用NCEP再分析环流资料和中国降水资料分析了东亚冬、夏季风对E1 Nino和LaNina的响应,结果发现,E1 Nino和La Nina事件显著地影响了东亚冬、夏季风的循环.E1Nino爆发前的冬季在东亚地区往往有异常强的北风;El Nino发展期的夏季,西太平洋副热带高压偏弱,同时影响我国的西南气流偏弱,从而江淮地区和南方沿海地区多雨,长江中游和华北地区少雨;E1 Nino盛期的冬季东亚地区则出现异常的南风;而E1 Nino衰亡期的夏季,西太平洋副热带高压偏强,同时影响我国的西南气流偏强,从而江淮地区少雨,华北、东北以及洞庭湖、鄱阳湖地区多雨.La Nina对东亚冬、夏季风循环的影响则与El Nino大致相反,但它的影响不如El ino的影响显著.对强、弱东亚冬季风后的夏季中国降水异常的分析则表明,正是由于与El Nino或La Nina事件有关的海温异常对东亚冬、夏季风循环的影响才导致了东亚冬季风与随后的夏季风存在着紧密的联系;当冬季风异常不是由与ElNiNino或La Nina事件有关的海温异常所引起时,两者之间就缺少显著的联系.  相似文献   

AN OPERATIONAL AUTO-MONITORING FOR THE EL NIO EPISODES USING GMS T_(BB)     

马岚  江吉喜  李小龙  吴晓京 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2004,10(1)

1 INTRODUCTION Oceans of the world cover about seventy percent of the earth surface, with larger proportion at the tropics. The tropical oceans not only provide heat energy and vapor, but also change the heat status and therefore make positive effect upon…  相似文献   

大尺度海气异常关系的主振荡型分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

章基嘉  丁锋  王盘兴 《应用气象学报》1993,(Z1)

简要介绍了主振荡型(POP)分析的原理及方法.用它分析了热带太平洋海表温度异常,得到的主振荡型 P_1、P_2及其周期 T,描述了 El Nino 与 La Nina 事件交替出现的时空特征.分析了热带太平洋区域月平均海温与风场的伴随相关型(ACP),得到了与 El Nino 事件相关的、物理意义清楚的环流异常图像.而对东亚夏季降水、气温的 ACP 分析给出了 El Nino 事件与我国夏季长期天气异常联系的接近实际的结果.  相似文献   

El Niño－La Niña循环的海－气耦合机制研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

马开玉  泮益农  李骥 《气象学报》1995,53(4):461-470

利用１９５０—１９８７年２°×２°格点综合海－气资料（ＣＯＡＤＳ），计算了赤道太平洋洋面（５°Ｓ—３°Ｎ）上逐月平均海温、气压、纬向风、比湿、云以及热量收支各分量的平均值和距平值，分析这些量的演变特征，得出：ＥｌＮｉｎｏ过程中，赤道太平洋洋面上气压梯度减小，东风减弱；赤道中、东太平洋洋面上空气中水汽和云量增加，洋面射入太阳辐射和有效长波辐射减少，感热和潜热交换加强，洋面净获得（损失）热量减少（增加）；ＬａＮｉｎａ过程中，情形相反。最后概括了ＥｌＮｉｎｏ－ＬａＮｉｎａ循环的两种海－气耦合反馈机制。  相似文献   

The Influence of El Ni?o on MJO over the Equatorial Pacific     

CHEN Xiong  LI Chongyin  TAN Yanke 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2015,(1):1-8

In this paper, the influence of El Ni?o event on the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) over the equatorial Pacific is studied by using reanalysis data and relevant numerical simulation results. It is clearly shown that El Ni?o can reduce the intensity of MJO. The kinetic energy of MJO over the equatorial Pacific is stronger before the occurrence of the El Ni?o event, but it is reduced rapidly after El Ni?o event outbreak, and the weakened MJO even can continue to the next summer. The convection over the central-western Pacific is weakened in El Ni?o winter. The positive anomalous OLR over the central-western Pacific has opposite variation in El Ni?o winter comparing to the non-ENSO cases. The vertical structure of MJO also affected by El Ni?o event, so the opposite direction features of the geopotential height and the zonal wind in upper and lower level troposphere for the MJO are not remarkable in the El Ni?o winter and tend to be barotropic features. El Ni?o event also has an influence on the eastward propa- gation of the MJO too. During El Ni?o winter, the eastward propagation of the MJO is not so regular and unanimous and there exists some eastward propagation, which is faster than that in non-ENSO case. Dynamic analyses suggest that positive SSTA(El Ni?o case) affects the atmospheric thickness over the equatorial Pacific and then the excited atmospheric wave-CISK mode is weakened, so that the intensity of MJO is reduced; the combining of the barotropic unstable mode in the atmosphere excited by external forcing(SSTA) and the original MJO may be an important reason for the MJO vertical structure tending to be barotropic during the El Ni?o.  相似文献