北极海冰与ENSO事件在准四年时间尺度上的可能联系   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

朱艳峰  陈隆勋 《大气科学》2003,27(5):834-846

分析了北极海冰的变化规律及其与ENSO循环在准四年时间尺度上的可能联系.结果表明(59.5～179.5°E,60.5～89.5.N)的高纬海域范围内(包括喀拉海、拉普捷夫海及东西伯利亚海,简称为A区)的北极海冰变化以9月份变率最大并具有准四年周期,在这个周期段上A区极冰与Nino 3区的海温变化有明显的位相差.当Nino 3区SST滞后海冰约16个月时,两者达到最大负相关.A区的9月海冰面积指数和SST的时滞相关系数分布表明,次年4月开始在赤道东太平洋区域出现一显著负相关区,次两年的2月负相关达到最大,之后减弱消失.这表明9月A区海冰面积偏小,则次年春季以后出现E1 Nin0现象.海冰与环流相关分析表明,其相互影响机制可能是由于少冰年的弱冷源效应,使得该地区上空气旋环流发展,并通过中高纬相互作用促进北太平洋西北部及东亚沿岸距平气旋式环流的发展,有利于赤道异常西风形成从而触发和维持El Nino事件的产生和发展.  相似文献   

Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) of south Kerala rainfall during the summer monsoons of 1901–1995     

P. V. Joseph  Anu Simon  Venu G. Nair  Aype Thomas 《Journal of Earth System Science》2004,113(2):139-150

Time series of daily averaged rainfall of about 40 rain gauge stations of south Kerala, situated at the southern-most part of peninsular India between latitudes about 8‡N and 10‡N were subjected to Wavelet Analysis to study the Intra Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) in the rainfall and its inter-annual variability. Of the 128 days, 29th May to 3rd October of each of the 95 years 1901-1995 were analysed. We find that the period of ISO does not vary during a monsoon season in most of the years, but it has large inter-annual variability in the range 23 to 64 days. Period-wise, the years cluster into two groups of ISO, the SHORT consisting of periods 23, 27 and 32 days and the LONG with a single period of 64 days, both the sets at a significance level of 99%. During the 95 years at this level of significance there are 44 years with SHORT and 20 years with LONG periods. 11 years have no ISO even at the 90% level of significance. We composited NCEP SST anomalies of the summer monsoon season June to September for two groups of years during the period 1965–1993. The first group is of 5 years with a LONG ISO period of 64 days for south Kerala rainfall at significance level of 99% and the second group is of 12 years with SHORT ISO periods of 23, 27 and 32 days at the same level of significance. The SST anomaly for the LONG (SHORT) ISO resembles that for an El Nino (La Nina).  相似文献   

Variations of Surface Air Temperature Over the Land Areas in and Around the Bay of Bengal     

Dewan Abdul Quadir  Madan L. Shrestha  Tariq Masood Ali Khan  Nazlee Ferdousi  Mizanur Rahman  Abdul Mannan 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(2):561-584

The inter-annual variation and linear trends of the surface air temperature in the regions in and around the Bay of Bengal have been studied using the time series data of monthly and annual mean temperature for 20–40 years period within 1951–1990. The study area extends from Pusma Camp of Nepal in the north and Kuala Lumpur of Malaysia in the south and between 80--100 ° E. The annual variation of temperature has also been studied using the mean monthly temperature for the variable time frames 1961–1975, 1976–1990 and 1961–1990. The trend of temperature has been analyzed using linear regression technique with the data from 1961–1990, which showed that the warming trend is dominant over the study areas except for a few stations. It has been found that Nepal shows predominant warming trends. Bangladesh and the adjacent areas of India and the northern part of Bay of Bengal adjacent to the Bangladesh coast have shown strong warming trends of the annual temperature with maximum at Dhaka (0.037 °C/year). The near equatorial zone, i.e., southern India, Sri Lanka and part of Thailand and Malaysia (Kuala Lumpur) shows warming trends in the annual mean temperature with strong warming at Pamban and Anuradhapura (around 0.04 °C/year). The cooling trends have been observed at a few stations including Port Blair, Yangoon and Cuttack. Further analysis shows the presence of prominent ENSO scale of variations with time period 4–7 years and 2–3 years for almost all the stations. The decadal mode with T >7 years is present in some data series. The results of the variations of temperature with respect to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) show that SOI has some negative correlation with temperature for most of the stations except those in the extreme northeast. It has been found that positive anomaly of temperature has been observed for El Niño events and negative anomaly for the La Nina events.  相似文献   

The 1.05-μm feature in the spectrum of the Type Ia supernova 1994D: He in SNe Ia?     

P. A.Mazzali  L. B.Lucy 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,295(2):428-436

A P Cygni profile with absorption at 1.05 μm was observed in three pre-maximum J -band spectra of the Type Ia supernova (SN) 1994D. The feature was not present in two post-maximum spectra. The line was attributed to He I 10830 ... or Mg II 10926 ..., based on a local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) treatment. The detection of He in the ejecta of a SN Ia would be useful for determining the pre-SN evolution and the explosion mechanism of SNe Ia.
In this paper, synthetic spectra are presented for both the He and Mg models. The population of the He levels has been computed in non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE), including non-thermal excitation and ionization effects resulting from the deposition of γ-rays from the decay of ⁵⁶Ni and ⁵⁶Co.
The J -band feature in the pre-maximum spectra can be reproduced either assuming the presence of a narrow shell, between 10000 and 12500 km s⁻¹, containing about 0.01 M⊙ of He, or increasing the abundance of Mg by about a factor of 5 with respect to the W7 value, implying a Mg mass of about 0.08 M⊙ above 10000 km s⁻¹. Both models are in good agreement with the optical spectrum. In particular, a strong He I 10830-... line does not imply a strong 5876-... line, because the departure coefficients of the 2p and 2s levels of He I differ by about an order of magnitude.
Unfortunately, neither model is able to reproduce the sudden disappearance of the J -band feature in the post-maximum spectra. Possible explanations are discussed.  相似文献   

Activities of Low-Frequency Waves in the Tropical Atmosphere and ENSO     

李桂龙  李崇银 《大气科学进展》1998,(2)

ＥＮＳＯ,ｐａｒｔｉｃｕｌａｒｌｙｔｈｅｏｃｃｕｒｅｎｃｅｏｆＥＮＳＯｉｓｓｔｉｌａｎｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｂｊｅｃｔｉｎｃｌｉｍａｔｉｃｖａｒｉａｔｉｏｎ．ＵｓｉｎｇｔｈｅＥＣＭＷＦｄａｔａ,ｔｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｏｎｓｈｉｐｂｅｔｗｅｎＥＮＳＯａｎｄｔｈｅａｃｔｉｖｉｔｉｅｓｏｆｌｏｗ－ｆｒｅｑｕｅｎｃｙｗａｖｅｓｉｎｔｈｅｔｒｏｐｉｃａｌａｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｅｉｓａｎａｌｙｚｅｄｉｎｔｈｉｓｐａｐｅｒ．ＩｔｉｓｓｈｏｗｎｔｈａｔｔｈｅｏｃｕｒｅｎｃｅｏｆＥＮＳＯｉｓｃｌｏｓｅｌｙｒｅｌａｔｅｄｔｏｔｈｅｉｎｔｒａｓｅａｓｏｎａｌｏｓｃｉｌａｔｉｏｎａｎｄｔｈｅｑｕａｓｉ－ｓｔａｔｉｏｎａｒｙｗａｖｅｓ（ｔｈｅｐｅｒｉｏｄ＞９０ｄａｙｓ）ｉｎｔｈｅｔｒｏｐｉｃａｌａｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｅ．ＡｓｏｃｉａｔｅｄｗｉｔｈｔｈｅｏｃｕｒｅｎｃｅｏｆＥｌＮｉｎｏｅｖｅｎｔ,ｔｈｅｋｉｎｅｔｉｃｅｎｅｒｇｙｏｆｌｏｗ－ｆｒｅｑｕｅｎｃｙｗａｖｅｓｈａｓｏｂｖｉｏｕｓｖａｒｉａｔｉｏｎ：ｔｈｅｋｉｎｅｔｉｃｅｎｅｒｇｙｏｆａｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｉｃｉｎｔｒａｓｅａｓｏｎａｌ（３０－６０ｄａｙｓ）ｏｓｃｉｌａｔｉｏｎ  相似文献   

海底火山喷发引发厄尔尼诺事件的数值模拟   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

刘厚赞  刘辉  俞永强 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1998,56(5):602-610

在东北太平洋海底火山实际位置,模仿实际火山喷发所产生的地热通量,对ＩＡＰ海－气耦合模式进行了强迫作用下积分试验。积分结果表明：海底火山溢流所产生的热能通过海洋对流影响表层海温,深层扩散极少;模拟出类似１９８６～１９８７年和１９９１～１９９２年厄尔尼诺事件形成发展的全过程。  相似文献   

INFLUENCE OF TIBETAN PLATEAU ON AIR-SEA INTERACTION OVER TROPICAL PACIFIC IN OCEAN-ATMOSPHERIC COUPLED SYSTEM     

吴爱明  倪允琪 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1998,(3)

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed,which consists of a global atmosphericgeneral circulation model(L9R15 AGCM)and a simple ocean model(ZC ocean model over tropicalPacific).Using the model,experimental predictions are performed for the 1986/87 El Nino eventand the 1988/89 La Nina event with and without the Tibetan Plateau respectively(called TPFORC and NTP FORC hereinafter).It is found as follows:(1)The coupled system cansuccessfully predict the El Nino or La Nina event even if the Tibetan Plateau orography is notincluded in the model.The patterns of SSTA and wind anomalies in the model without the TibetanPlateau are similar to those with the Tibetan Plateau,which further verifies the fact that ENSOprocess is mainly caused by the air-sea interaction in tropical Pacific.(2)However.the existenceof the Tibetan Plateau exerts its influences on the intensity and duration of El Nino(or La Nina).It is unfavorable to the development and maintenance of westerly anomalies,so to some extent,restrains the development of El Nino,but favors the development of La Nina.(3)Effects of theTibetan Plateau orography on the wind anomalies in the coupled system are different from those inuncoupled AGCM simulation.  相似文献   

青藏高原地气系统辐射收支变化特征及其与气候变化的关系     

柳艳香 《高原气象》1998,17(3):258-265

利用ＥＲＢＥ资料分的了１９８５～１９８８年期间青藏高原地气系统辐射收支的分布特征与几次重大天气气候事件的关系,结果表明,ＥｌＮｉｎｏ期间,高原东南部地区（Ⅲ区即９０°Ｅ以东,３５°Ｎ以南）加热场强度比高原西部地区（Ｉ区即９０°Ｅ以西）及高原东北部地区（Ⅱ区即９０°Ｅ以东,３５°Ｎ以北）要大,ＬａＮｉｎａ期间,高原Ｉ区的热源强度比Ⅱ,Ⅲ区大,高原热源强度大,西南季风弱,反之,西南季风强。  相似文献   

1997年夏季华北特大干旱及其成因   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

赵从兰  刘厚赞 《南京气象学院学报》1998,21(3):440-445

介绍了１９９７年华北地区出现历史上的罕见的特大干旱,酷热灾害的情况,并对造成灾害的原因进行了分析。  相似文献   

WIND STRESS ANOMALY MODEL ON ENSO TIME SCALES IN COMPLEX MODELS     

吴秋霞  倪允琪 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1998,4(1):47-55

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the tropical Pacific wind stress anomalies produccd on monthly to interannual time scales by the complex general circulation model (GCM) of the center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Interactions (C.O.L.A.) at low (R15) resolutions. The model is integraed using observed sea surface temperature (SST) for ten years 1979 through 1988. The model simulates generally realistic wind stress anomaly (WSA). The model-generated data set of WSA was used to force the Zebiax Cane ocean model (ZCOM) for ten years. The modeled (SST) anomalies were compared to the observed SST anomalies. The ZCOM simulation shows realistic 1982/83 and 1986/87 warm episodes along the equator, but could produce less realistic 1984/85 and 1988/89 cold episodes along the equator due to lack of wind stress forcing in the mean model. Time series of the NINO3 index (measuring the SST anomaly in the mid-eastern Pacific) is realistic for the ZCOM simulation.  相似文献