1997年夏季华北特大干旱及其成因   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

赵从兰  刘厚赞 《南京气象学院学报》1998,21(3):440-445

介绍了１９９７年华北地区出现历史上的罕见的特大干旱,酷热灾害的情况,并对造成灾害的原因进行了分析。  相似文献   

WIND STRESS ANOMALY MODEL ON ENSO TIME SCALES IN COMPLEX MODELS     

吴秋霞  倪允琪 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1998,4(1):47-55

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the tropical Pacific wind stress anomalies produccd on monthly to interannual time scales by the complex general circulation model (GCM) of the center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Interactions (C.O.L.A.) at low (R15) resolutions. The model is integraed using observed sea surface temperature (SST) for ten years 1979 through 1988. The model simulates generally realistic wind stress anomaly (WSA). The model-generated data set of WSA was used to force the Zebiax Cane ocean model (ZCOM) for ten years. The modeled (SST) anomalies were compared to the observed SST anomalies. The ZCOM simulation shows realistic 1982/83 and 1986/87 warm episodes along the equator, but could produce less realistic 1984/85 and 1988/89 cold episodes along the equator due to lack of wind stress forcing in the mean model. Time series of the NINO3 index (measuring the SST anomaly in the mid-eastern Pacific) is realistic for the ZCOM simulation.  相似文献   

大气、海洋与固体地球的能量交换   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

杨学祥 《世界地质》2004,23(1):28-34

通过对南极气温资料、南极臭氧资料、环南极海冰资料、太平洋海温资料、地球自转速度变化资料、厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜资料的模拟验证，发现厄尔尼诺事件发生与德雷克海峡海冰减少在时间上有一一对应关系。南极半岛海冰减少是太平洋环流速度减慢的原因，德雷克海峡的海冰起重要作用。大气、海洋与固体地球的角动量交换在南、北半球有不同的形式。强震起源于海平面振荡。  相似文献   

1971 San Fernando and 1994 Northridge, California, earthquakes: did the zones with severely damaged buildings reoccur?     

Mihailo D. Trifunac  Maria I. Todorovska 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2004,24(3):225-239

This paper compares the distribution of damage from the San Fernando, 1971, and Northridge, 1994, earthquakes. Both events had similar size, occurred on blind thrust faults beneath the densely populated San Fernando Valley of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, and hence offer a rare opportunity to compare the effects of the two earthquakes. In a previous study of the distribution of red-tagged (‘unsafe’) buildings and of breaks in the water distribution system caused by the Northridge earthquake, the authors discovered that buildings were damaged less where the soil response was not linear (as indicated by the breaks in the water pipes), except in localized areas of very severe shaking (peak ground velocity exceeding 150 cm/s). The study in this paper shows that the same applies to the damage caused by the San Fernando earthquake, and that the areas with severely damaged buildings (so called ‘gray zones’) for both earthquakes overlapped. This reoccurrence of damage within the same area is interpreted to result from some specific properties of local soil and geology. These properties are not fully understood at present, but should be explored to provide a basis for a new tool for forecasting microzonation maps, and reducing future seismic hazard.  相似文献   

DIAGNOSTIC PREDICTIONS OF SST IN THE EQUATORIAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BASED ON FUZZY INFERRING AND WAVELET DECOMPOSITION     

张韧  周林  董兆俊  李训强 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2002,8(2):168-179

Methods and approaches are discussed that identify and filter off affecting factors (noise) above primary signals,based on the Adaptive-Nework-Based Fuzzy Inference System. Influences of the zonal winds in equatorial eastern and middle/western Pacific on the SSTA in the equatorial region and their contribution to the latter are diagnosed and verified with observations of a number of significant El Nino and La Nina episodes. New viewpoints are propsed. The methods of wavelet decomposition and reconstruction are used to build a predictive model based on independent domains of frequency,which shows some advantages in composite prediction and prediction validity.The methods presented above are of non-linearity, error-allowing and auto-adaptive/learning, in addition to rapid and easy access,illustrative and quantitative presentation,and analyzed results that agree generally with facts. They are useful in diagnosing and predicting the El Nino and La Nina problems that are just roughly described in dynamics.  相似文献   

厄尔尼诺现象和拉尼娜现象与中高纬地区气候的关系     

赵玉洁 《黑龙江气象》2002,(4):16-18

利用概率统计学方法,分析厄尔尼诺现象和拉尼娜现象与中高纬地区四季气温、≥10℃活动积温、初霜、终霜及降水等的关系,对短期气候预测具有较好的参考价值。  相似文献   

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Southeast Coastal States of the United States   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Li''an Xie  Leonard J.Pietrafes  Kejian Wu 《大气科学进展》2002,19(4):677-686

The interannual variability of the Atlantic tropical cyclone(TC)frequency is well known.Separately,recent studies have also suggested that a much longer,multidecadal(40-60 year)trend might be emerging from the recent increase in Atlantic TC activity.However,the overall structure of the intrinsic frequencies(or temporal modes)of Atlantic TC activity is not yet known.The focus of this study is to systematically analyze the intrinsic frequencies of Atlantic TC activity using hurricane and tropical storm landfall data collected along the southeast coast(SEC)of the United States.Based on an Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) analysis of the frequency of landfall TCs along the SEC from 188701999,we have found that Atlantic TC activity has four primary,temporal modes.The interannual and multidecadal modes reported in the published literature are two such modes.After identifying all primary modes,the relative importance of each mode and its physical cause can be analyzed.For example,the most energetic mode is the interannual mode(2-7 year period).This mode is known to be associated with the 2-7 year El Nino/La Nino cycle.The average number of annual landfalling TCs along the SEC decreased by 24% during El Nino years,but did not show significant increase during weak and moderate La Nina years.However,intense La Nina years were generally associated with more than average landfalling TCs along the SEC.The effects of El Nino and La Nina also became more significant when only hurricanes were considered.The significance of the effects of El Nino and La Nina on landfalling TCs and hurricanes in different US southeast coastal states showed significant differences.  相似文献   

In situ determination of long-term basaltic glass dissolution in the unsaturated zone   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Steven J. Gordon  Patrick V. Brady   《Chemical Geology》2002,190(1-4):113-122

Maximum in situ weathering rates of basaltic glass measured at the El Malpais National Monument in New Mexico are on the order of 2–5×10⁻¹⁹ mol/cm² s. Rates were calculated from backscattered electron (BSE) imaging of weathered porosity and are equivalent to 1.7–5% of the surface per 1000 years. Weathering is independent of glass composition but appears to increase with flow elevation at El Malpais. Measured rates represent weathering over 3000 years and are substantially lower than glass dissolution rates measured in the laboratory over much shorter time spans. Basaltic glass is a close chemical analogue to glass hosts proposed for encapsulation of high-level nuclear wastes. Radionuclide release rates predicted from the basis of in situ field rates are substantially less than those predicted from short-term laboratory experiments.  相似文献   

热带西太平洋对风应力的斜压响应   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

巢纪平  陈鲜艳  何金海 《地球物理学报》2002,45(2):176-187

发展了一个线性热带西太平洋两层模式,分别为混合层和温跃层,其密度、温度各不相同.利用这一模式分析了热带西太平洋对纬圈风应力的响应,求出西边界的解,以及解析地求得热带西太平洋温跃层厚度、洋流及海温分布.结果表明,热带西太平洋物理量的变异在El Nino/La Nina事件中起着重要作用,在温跃层中海温变化的振幅明显大于混合层,这从理论上支持了近年来的观测事实.  相似文献   

二氧化碳海气交换通量估计的不确定性   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：8  

徐永福  赵亮  浦一芬  李阳春 《地学前缘》2004,11(2):565-571

尽管确信海洋是人为CO2 的一个巨大碳汇 ,但其确切的数字及其未来变化趋势至今仍有较大的争议。分析讨论了国内外这方面的研究成果 ,特别是近几年的研究进展 ,指出了在计算海气交换通量时存在的主要问题。计算CO2 气海交换系数的公式尚未取得一致 ,在相同的风速下 ,不同的公式可产生百分之几十的差别。计算的CO2 分压因使用不同的热力学常数表达式而导致不同的结果 ,差值可达 3Pa。进一步讨论了基于观测和模式估计的CO2 气海交换通量的不确定性 ,并指明了模式结果存在的差异。根据CO2 分压的观测资料估计 1 990年和 1 995年全球海洋分别吸收 1 .4 5GtC和 2 .2 5GtC的CO2 ,该估计有 5 0 %的不确定性 ,4个全球海洋环流碳循环模式估计 1 980— 1 989年间海洋每年吸收人为CO2 为 1 .5～ 2 .2GtC。评述了通量的季节变化和年际变化 ,年际变化与发生在太平洋中的厄尔尼诺现象有关。  相似文献