EnSRF雷达资料同化在一次飑线过程中的应用研究   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

高士博  闵锦忠  黄丹莲 《大气科学》2016,40(6):1127-1142

本文利用包含复杂冰相微物理过程的WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式,针对2007年4月23日发生在我国华南地区的一次典型飑线天气过程,分别进行了确定性预报和集合预报试验,发现确定性预报能大致捕捉到飑线系统的发生发展过程,但对飑线后部的层云区模拟效果较差。集合预报能够有效地减少模式的不确定性,大部分集合成员对飑线的模拟效果优于确定性预报。进一步将集合预报得到的40个成员作为背景场,采用EnSRF（Ensemble Square Root Filter）同化多普勒天气雷达资料,并将分析得到的集合作为初始场进行集合预报,通过与未同化雷达资料的集合对比,考察了EnSRF同化多部雷达资料对飑线系统的影响。结果表明:EnSRF雷达资料同化增加了模式初始场的中小尺度信息,大部分集合成员的分析场能够较准确地再现飑线的热力场、动力场和微物理场的细致特征,并且模拟出飑线后部的层云结构。通过对EnSRF分析的集合进行模拟发现,大部分集合成员较未同化雷达资料时模拟效果有明显改善。同化后的集合预报ETS（Equitable Threat Score）评分最高,其次是未同化的集合预报,确定性预报的最低。  相似文献   

Hybrid ETKF-3DVAR方法同化多普勒雷达速度观测资料Ⅰ:模拟资料试验          下载免费PDF全文

沈菲菲  闵锦忠  许冬梅  张冰 《大气科学学报》2016,39(1):81-89

利用WRF(Weather research and forecasting)模式及模式模拟的资料,采用Hybrid ETKF-3DVAR(ensemble transform Kalman filter-three-dimensional variational data assimilation)方法同化模拟雷达观测资料。该混合同化方法将集合转换卡尔曼滤波(ensemble transform Kalman filter)得到的集合样本扰动通过转换矩阵直接作用到背景场上,利用顺序滤波的思想得到分析扰动场;然后通过增加额外控制变量的方式把"流依赖"的集合协方差信息引入到变分目标函数中去,在3DVAR框架基础下与观测数据进行融合,从而给出分析场的最优估计。试验结果表明,Hybrid ETKF-3DVAR同化方法相比传统3DVAR可以提供更为准确的分析场,Hybrid方法雷达资料初始化模拟的台风涡旋结构与位置比3DVAR更加接近"真实场",对台风路径预报也有明显改进。通过对比Hybrid S试验与Hybrid F试验发现,Hybrid的正效果主要来源于混合背景误差协方差中的"流依赖"信息,集合平均场代替确定性背景场带来的效果并不显著。  相似文献   

Estimating winter wheat biomass by assimilating leaf area index derived from fusion of Landsat-8 and MODIS data     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2016

A sufficient number of satellite acquisitions in a growing season are essential for deriving agronomic indicators, such as green leaf area index (GLAI), to be assimilated into crop models for crop productivity estimation. However, for most high resolution orbital optical satellites, it is often difficult to obtain images frequently due to their long revisit cycles and unfavorable weather conditions. Data fusion algorithms, such as the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM) and the Enhanced STARFM (ESTARFM), have been developed to generate synthetic data with high spatial and temporal resolution to address this issue. In this study, we evaluated the approach of assimilating GLAI into the Simple Algorithm for Yield Estimation model (SAFY) for winter wheat biomass estimation. GLAI was estimated using the two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) derived from data acquired by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) onboard the Landsat-8 and a fusion dataset generated by blending the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and the OLI data using the STARFM and ESTARFM models. The fusion dataset had the temporal resolution of the MODIS data and the spatial resolution of the OLI data. Key parameters of the SAFY model were optimised through assimilation of the estimated GLAI into the crop model using the Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona (SCE-UA) algorithm. A good agreement was achieved between the estimated and field measured biomass by assimilating the GLAI derived from the OLI data (GLAI_L) alone (R² = 0.77 and RMSE = 231 g m⁻²). Assimilation of GLAI derived from the fusion dataset (GLAI_F) resulted in a R² of 0.71 and RMSE of 193 g m⁻² while assimilating the combination of GLAI_L and GLAI_F led to further improvements (R² = 0.76 and RMSE = 176 g m⁻²). Our results demonstrated the potential of using the fusion algorithms to improve crop growth monitoring and crop productivity estimation when the number of high resolution remote sensing data acquisitions is limited.  相似文献   

基于有理多项式模型的GF4卫星区域影像平差处理方法及精度验证     

皮英冬  杨博  李欣 《测绘学报》2016,45(12):1448-1454

分析了我国首颗静止轨道光学遥感卫星高分四号(GF4)特有的区域成像模式的几何特性,基于静止轨道成像基高比较小的几何特性提出一种利用平均高程面的区域网平差方法。该方法针对GF4卫星影像构建了基于有理多项式模型RFM的区域网平差模型,并在无控制条件下,对GF4卫星区域影像进行区域网平差处理,解决了GF4号区域影像由于定轨误差、定姿误差、大气折光以及镜头畸变等因素导致的拼接精度较低的问题。最后,通过两组真实数据试验对本文方法的精度及有效性进行了验证,同时分析了采用不同的误差补偿模型对于平差结果精度的影响。  相似文献   

皖南晚中生代花岗闪长岩地球化学:成岩成矿制约   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

谢建成  夏冬梅  方德  闫峻  杨晓勇  孙卫东  李全忠 《岩石学报》2016,32(2):439-455

皖南地区是铜、钼、金多金属成矿区,成矿与晚中生代花岗闪长岩类关系密切。近十年来,皖南花岗闪长岩的成因仍然存在分歧。本次报道了皖南花岗闪长岩全岩主、微量元素和锆石原位元素数据。皖南花岗闪长岩(Si O2=64.3%~70.8%)为高钾钙碱性、过铝质岩石,具有相似的埃达克岩特征:高Si O2、Sr/Y(17.1)和(La/Yb)N(14.9)比值,低Yb(1.72×10-6)和Y(18.4×10-6)含量。它们也具有较低Al2O3和Cr(3.40×10-6~10.0×10-6)含量、低Mg#(0.34~0.42)和Nb/Ta(9.6~13.3)值,高K2O和Ba(404×10-6)含量,高K2O/Na2O(0.89~1.55)、Th/La(0.27~0.51)和Th/U(2.79~7.49)比值。锆石原位地球化学特征显示其岩浆源区为低温(锆石Ti-in-zircon温度均值674℃)和高氧逸度(lgfO2集中在-21.4~-9.18,均值-16.4;锆石Ce4+/Ce3+平均值276)的陆壳。这些特征说明皖南花岗闪长岩可能起源于较年轻的加厚下地壳的部分熔融,并经历了斜长石、钾长石和铁镁矿物等结晶分异作用。它们可能形成于与古太平洋板块俯冲密切相关的大陆活动边缘弧至弧后拉张构造转换背景。本区大规模Cu、Mo、Au成矿作用与岩浆的高氧逸度密切相关,而锆石Ce4+/Ce3+可作为矿床勘探一个有效的指标。  相似文献   

TRMM卫星降水数据在小尺度流域的评估与应用          下载免费PDF全文

周萌  江善虎  任立良 《水文》2016,36(1):22-26

选取史灌河流域上游黄泥庄站以上集水区域为研究流域,以地面站点观测为基准数据,评估TRMM 3B42V7版本卫星降水数据的精度,并采用上述两种降水数据驱动栅格型新安江模型,模拟黄泥庄站日径流和月径流过程。结果表明:2001~2010年TRMM 3B42V7降水数据与雨量站数据累积量的偏差不大,仅为1.71%,但相关系数较低,采用TRMM降水数据模拟的日径流能基本再现黄泥庄站的日径流过程,但对洪峰的模拟精度较低;TRMM月降水数据精度较高,相关系数为0.96,能够较为精确地模拟黄泥庄站的月径流过程。  相似文献   

乌兰哈达变质岩地层地热勘探井钻头选择与取心工艺          下载免费PDF全文

宋国龙  董劲松  李进安 《探矿工程》2016,43(12):41-44

内蒙古自治区察右后旗乌兰哈达苏木地热勘探井井深2006.87 m。采用石油30型钻机施工,钻遇地层大部分为变质岩,达1500 m以上,对牙轮钻头损坏严重,同时施工要求进行18次岩心采取。经过对钻头的试用、选择,最后选用HJ637G型牙轮钻头,钻进时效可达0.8～1.2 m,使用寿命可达到80～100 h。取心段采用川7-4型双管单动取心筒配合金刚石钻头,岩心采取率可达70%～95%。  相似文献   

MASNUM-WAM海浪模式集合Kalman滤波同化研究-I.风场扰动对海浪模拟影响   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

孙盟  尹训强  杨永增  吴克俭 《海洋与湖沼》2016,47(6):1091-1100

模式集合样本的代表性和观测信息的可靠性是制约数据同化效果的重要因素,而前者对海浪模式同化的影响尤为显著。由于海浪模式对初始场的敏感性较弱,来自大气的风输入源函数是海浪的重要能量输入,如何合理地对风输入进行扰动,构造海浪的集合模式运行,是实现和改进海浪模式集合Kalman滤波同化的关键问题。为了实现海浪模式集合运行,本文提出了风场的三种集合扰动方案,分别为：纯随机数、随机场和时间滞后的风场扰动方法。本研究利用2014年1月ECMWF全球风场,基于这三种风场扰动方法开展了集合海浪模式的集合运行实验,并统计分析了海浪特征要素（有效波高）和二维波数谱对风场扰动的响应。结果表明,随机场集合扰动方案所构造的风场集合效果最佳,所得海浪模拟结果的集合样本发散度适中,能够较为合理地反映背景误差的统计特征,可用于进一步的集合Kalman滤波海浪数据同化实验。  相似文献   

Estimation of mean and extreme waves in the East China Seas     

《Applied Ocean Research》2016

Accurately estimating the mean and extreme wave statistics and better understanding their directional and seasonal variations are of great importance in the planning and designing of ocean and coastal engineering works. Due to the lack of long-term wave measurement data, the analysis of extreme waves is often based on the numerical wave hind-casting results. In this study, the wave climate in the East China Seas (including the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea) for the past 35 years (1979–2013) is hind-casted using a third generation wave model – WAMC4 (Cycle 4 version of WAM model). Two sets of reanalysis wind data from NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) are used to drive the wave model to generate the long-term wave climate. The hind-casted waves are then analysed to study the mean and extreme wave statistics in the study area. The results show that the mean wave heights decrease from south to north and from sea to land in general. The extreme wave heights with return periods of 50 and 100 years in the summer and autumn seasons are significantly higher than those in the other two seasons, mainly due to the effect of typhoon events. The mean wave heights in the winter season have the highest values, mainly due to the effect of winter monsoon winds. The comparison of extreme wave statistics from both wind fields with the field measurements at several nearshore wave observation stations shows that the extreme waves generated by the ECMWF winds are better than those generated by the NCEP winds. The comparison also shows the extreme waves in deep waters are better reproduced than those in shallow waters, which is partly attributed to the limitations of the wave model used. The results presented in this paper provide useful insight into the wave climate in the area of the East China Seas, as well as the effect of wind data resolution on the simulation of long-term waves.  相似文献   

盐度对长江口3种滤食性贝类滤水率、摄食率、同化率的影响   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

吕昊泽  刘健  陈锦辉  沈和定  吴杨平 《海洋科学》2016,40(8):10-17

采用实验生态学方法研究了盐度对长江口缢蛏(Sinonovacula constricta)、河蚬(Corbicula fluminea)和光滑河蓝蛤(Potamocorbula laevis)滤水率、摄食率、同化率的影响。缢蛏组设6个盐度梯度(5,10,15,20,25,30),光滑河蓝蛤组设6个盐度梯度(5,10,15,20,25,30),河蚬组设6个盐度梯度(0,5,10,15,20,25),并测定了此3种滤食性贝类的生物学参数。结果显示,3种滤食性贝类的滤水率、摄食率和同化率随着盐度的上升而增加,当上升到一定盐度时达到峰值,然后随着盐度的升高而降低。盐度20时,缢蛏滤水率、摄食率和同化率达到峰值,分别为0.57L/h、5.38mg POM/h和0.72%。盐度10时,光滑河蓝蛤滤水率和同化率达到峰值,分别为0.46L/h和0.53%,摄食率在盐度15时达到峰值3.80mg POM/h。盐度5时河蚬滤水率和摄食率都达到峰值,分别为0.39 L/h和2.48 mg POM/h,同化率在盐度0时已达到峰值0.51%,并随盐度上升而下降。上述结果表明,盐度对3种滤食性贝类的3个摄食生理指标均有显著影响。  相似文献