Objective Analysis on Large-scale Circulation Type and Its Links to Precipitation over China     

Liang Chen  Jianping Duan  Zhuguo Ma 《地球科学进展》2018,33(4):396-403

Atmospheric circulation anomaly is a direct cause of weather and climate change. In the past, most researches for the relationship between Weather Type (WT) and precipitation have mainly focused on the subjective classification and diagnosis. Compared to the subjective analysis, objective classification uses more consistent index and standard unification, thus, we can get more WTs, and it has been widely used in many areas. By using daily 12UTC Sea Level Pressure (SLP), Precipitable Water (PW), and 700 hPa wind speed (UV700) data from ECMWF’s Interim Reanalysis, the classification of WTs over China was performed with the method of obliquely rotated T-mode principle component analysis. WT and its link to precipitation over China were further analyzed. The results show that the influence of different WTs on precipitation is not uniform over China, and also show distinctly difference in different seasons. A common feature is that WTs great impact on the regions and months with large precipitation, while less impact on regions and months have with less precipitation. In addition, precipitation trends originating from WT intensity changes are much more deterministic, significant, and predictable than trends from WT frequency changes.  相似文献   

IPCC AR6报告解读：未来的全球气候——基于情景的预估和近期信息     

周天军  陈梓明  陈晓龙  左萌  江洁  胡帅 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(6):652-663

依据IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组报告第四章的内容,对未来全球气候的预估结果进行解读。报告对21世纪全球表面气温、降水、大尺度环流和变率模态、冰冻圈和海洋圈的可能变化进行了系统评估,并对2100年以后的气候变化做了合理估计。评估指出全球平均表面气温将在未来20年内达到或超过1.5℃,平均降水也将增加,但随季节和区域而异,同时变率将增大。大尺度环流和变率模态受内部变率影响较大。到21世纪末,北冰洋可能出现无冰期;全球海洋会继续酸化,平均海平面将持续上升,百年内上升幅度依赖不同排放情景,都在2100年后继续升高。在最新的评估中采用多种约束方法,减小了预估不确定性的范围。AR6对于低排放情景以及“小概率高增暖情节”的关注为应对气候变化提供了更多、更完整的信息。综合报告的评估结果指出,未来需要进一步减小区域,特别是季风区气候预估的不确定性,并从科学研究和模式发展两方面加强我国气候预估能力的建设。  相似文献   

三组火山强迫资料差异及其对模式模拟结果的影响     

高雅  高超超 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(3):305-316

Gao2008、Crowley2013和Sigl2015火山强迫资料,均基于极地冰芯重建。由于每组重建使用的冰芯数据和分析方法等不同,因此结果存在差异,从而影响气候模式应用。文中详细梳理三组火山强迫资料在原始冰芯数据、信号识别提取和沉积通量计算等方面的差异;介绍重建中涉及的对未知火山事件发生季节、纬度及从极地硫酸盐沉积通量向平流层辐射强迫通量转换等所做的假设;归纳资料中存在的共性问题。在此基础上,总结重建不确定性对模式应用的影响,希望为涉及气候模式的研究工作提供从气候系统外强迫资料解读或审视气候变化模拟与影响评估的视角,更好为气候模拟和预测服务。  相似文献   

Pattern,style and timing of British–Irish Ice Sheet advance and retreat over the last 45 000 years: evidence from NW Scotland and the adjacent continental shelf     

Tom Bradwell  Derek Fabel  Chris D. Clark  Richard C. Chiverrell  David Small  Rachel K. Smedley  Margot H. Saher  Steven G. Moreton  Dayton Dove  S. Louise Callard  Geoff A. T. Duller  Alicia Medialdea  Mark D. Bateman  Matthew J. Burke  Neil McDonald  Sean Gilgannon  Sally Morgan  David H. Roberts  Colm ó Cofaigh 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(5):871-933

Predicting the future response of ice sheets to climate warming and rising global sea level is important but difficult. This is especially so when fast-flowing glaciers or ice streams, buffered by ice shelves, are grounded on beds below sea level. What happens when these ice shelves are removed? And how do the ice stream and the surrounding ice sheet respond to the abruptly altered boundary conditions? To address these questions and others we present new geological, geomorphological, geophysical and geochronological data from the ice-stream-dominated NW sector of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS). The study area covers around 45 000 km² of NW Scotland and the surrounding continental shelf. Alongside seabed geomorphological mapping and Quaternary sediment analysis, we use a suite of over 100 new absolute ages (including cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages, optically stimulated luminescence ages and radiocarbon dates) collected from onshore and offshore, to build a sector-wide ice-sheet reconstruction combining all available evidence with Bayesian chronosequence modelling. Using this information we present a detailed assessment of ice-sheet advance/retreat history, and the glaciological connections between different areas of the NW BIIS sector, at different times during the last glacial cycle. The results show a highly dynamic, partly marine, partly terrestrial, ice-sheet sector undergoing large size variations in response to sub-millennial-scale climatic (Dansgaard–Oeschger) cycles over the last 45 000 years. Superimposed on these trends we identify internally driven instabilities, operating at higher frequency, conditioned by local topographic factors, tidewater dynamics and glaciological feedbacks during deglaciation. Specifically, our new evidence indicates extensive marine-terminating ice-sheet glaciation of the NW BIIS sector during Greenland Stadials 12 to 9 – prior to the main ‘Late Weichselian’ ice-sheet glaciation. After a period of restricted glaciation, in Greenland Interstadials 8 to 6, we find good evidence for rapid renewed ice-sheet build-up in NW Scotland, with the Minch ice-stream terminus reaching the continental shelf edge in Greenland Stadial 5, perhaps only briefly. Deglaciation of the NW sector took place in numerous stages. Several grounding-zone wedges and moraines on the mid- and inner continental shelf attest to significant stabilizations of the ice-sheet grounding line, or ice margin, during overall retreat in Greenland Stadials 3 and 2, and to the development of ice shelves. NW Lewis was the first substantial present-day land area to deglaciate, in the first half of Greenland Stadial 3 at a time of globally reduced sea-level c. 26 kabp , followed by Cape Wrath at c. 24 kabp. The topographic confinement of the Minch straits probably promoted ice-shelf development in early Greenland Stadial 2, providing the ice stream with additional support and buffering it somewhat from external drivers. However, c. 20–19 kabp , as the grounding-line migrated into shoreward deepening water, coinciding with a marked change in marine geology and bed strength, the ice stream became unstable. We find that, once underway, grounding-line retreat proceeded in an uninterrupted fashion with the rapid loss of fronting ice shelves – first in the west, then the east troughs – before eventual glacier stabilization at fjord mouths in NW Scotland by ~17 kabp. Around the same time, ~19–17 kabp , ice-sheet lobes readvanced into the East Minch – possibly a glaciological response to the marine-instability-triggered loss of adjacent ice stream (and/or ice shelf) support in the Minch trough. An independent ice cap on Lewis also experienced margin oscillations during mid-Greenland Stadial 2, with an ice-accumulation centre in West Lewis existing into the latter part of Heinrich Stadial 1. Final ice-sheet deglaciation of NW mainland Scotland was punctuated by at least one other coherent readvance at c. 15.5 kabp , before significant ice-mass losses thereafter. At the glacial termination, c. 14.5 kabp , glaciers fed outwash sediment to now-abandoned coastal deltas in NW mainland Scotland around the time of global Meltwater Pulse 1A. Overall, this work on the BIIS NW sector reconstructs a highly dynamic ice-sheet oscillating in extent and volume for much of the last 45 000 years. Periods of expansive ice-sheet glaciation dominated by ice-streaming were interspersed with periods of much more restricted ice-cap or tidewater/fjordic glaciation. Finally, this work indicates that the role of ice streams in ice-sheet evolution is complex but mechanistically important throughout the lifetime of an ice sheet – with ice streams contributing to the regulation of ice-sheet health but also to the acceleration of ice-sheet demise via marine ice-sheet instabilities.  相似文献   

The evolution of the terrestrial-terminating Irish Sea glacier during the last glaciation     

Richard Christopher Chiverrell  Geoff Stephen Powell Thomas  Matthew Burke  Alicia Medialdea  Rachel Smedley  Mark Bateman  Chris Clark  Geoffrey A. T. Duller  Derek Fabel  Geraint Jenkins  Xianjiao Ou  Helen Marie Roberts  James Scourse 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(5):752-779

Here we reconstruct the last advance to maximum limits and retreat of the Irish Sea Glacier (ISG), the only land-terminating ice lobe of the western British Irish Ice Sheet. A series of reverse bedrock slopes rendered proglacial lakes endemic, forming time-transgressive moraine- and bedrock-dammed basins that evolved with ice marginal retreat. Combining, for the first time on glacial sediments, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) bleaching profiles for cobbles with single grain and small aliquot OSL measurements on sands, has produced a coherent chronology from these heterogeneously bleached samples. This chronology constrains what is globally an early build-up of ice during late Marine Isotope Stage 3 and Greenland Stadial (GS) 5, with ice margins reaching south Lancashire by 30 ± 1.2 ka, followed by a 120-km advance at 28.3 ± 1.4 ka reaching its 26.5 ± 1.1 ka maximum extent during GS-3. Early retreat during GS-3 reflects piracy of ice sources shared with the Irish-Sea Ice Stream (ISIS), starving the ISG. With ISG retreat, an opportunistic readvance of Welsh ice during GS-2 rode over the ISG moraines occupying the space vacated, with ice margins oscillating within a substantial glacial over-deepening. Our geomorphological chronosequence shows a glacial system forced by climate but mediated by piracy of ice sources shared with the ISIS, changing flow regimes and fronting environments.  相似文献   

青藏高原古里雅冰帽冰碛和冰水沉积物粒度特征及其意义   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

张延广  方小敏  毛子强  申茂华  张涛  昝金波  杨胜利 《冰川冻土》2021,43(3):701-713

冰冻圈演化不仅与青藏高原水塔变化、地表侵蚀风化及荒漠化密切相关,还深刻影响着亚洲季风系统和全球气候,冰碛物的粒度组成可以为冰冻圈演化提供重要信息,但高原冰碛物的特征粒度组成及其形成机理仍不清楚,高原冰碛物与高原冷黄土及河湖沉积物的关系也不明确。为此,选择青藏高原最大的冰帽——古里雅冰帽的冰碛物及系列冰水沉积物,开展系统粒度组成研究。研究发现：自终碛到冰川前端冰水扇及下游河流冰水沉积均表现出特征的双峰模态,即1~3 Φ（500~125 μm）的中细砂峰和6~8 Φ（16~4 μm）的细粉砂峰,前者可能由冰川压碎、寒冻风化崩裂作用造成,后者由冰川研磨作用形成,并受到源区基岩岩性软弱和组成颗粒大小的影响。冰川磨蚀的细粉砂组分含量,从冰碛物经冰水扇、河流到湖滩沉积物整体呈现减小趋势,粗粉砂在湖滩沉积中几乎完全被风吹走,粗粉砂直接成为下游黄土的物源并富集其中成为黄土特征组分,水流分选在开口湖泊中产生粗、细粉砂的明显富集,这些证据揭示出,无论是与冰川发育相关的尾闾湖沉积还是近源、远源的青藏高原及周边黄土沉积,其粉砂组成和来源,均可为高原冰冻圈的形成演化提供重要信息。  相似文献   

冰层空气反循环快速钻进方法及冰屑运移研究          下载免费PDF全文

董硕  贺文博  曹金娥  王孟克  陈宝义  曹品鲁 《探矿工程》2021,48(1):49-56

空气反循环钻进技术具有钻速快、能耗低、可不提钻连续取心取样、能有效避免积雪层漏失等优点,在冰层钻探中极具应用潜力。本文针对冰层钻探技术特点,提出了双壁钻杆式、双通道高压胶管式和寄生高压胶管式等三种空气反循环冰层钻探技术,分别介绍了其工作原理及特点。基于气力输送和气体钻井基本理论,对冰屑颗粒气体介质中的悬浮速度进行了分析,建立了单颗粒冰屑悬浮、运移方程和冰屑颗粒群悬浮方程,并设计了冰屑悬浮实验台,对冰屑悬浮所需的风速进行了实验测试。理论计算值与实验实测值吻合较好,最大误差约10.91%,可用本文建立的冰屑运动方程来计算实际钻进时携带冰屑所需的风量,为后续在极地实施冰层空气反循环钻进技术提供了依据。  相似文献   

美国极地钻探科学目标分析与钻探技术进展          下载免费PDF全文

李冰  韩丽丽  李亚洲  范晓鹏  宫达  洪嘉琳  张楠  冶宇霆  汪月  孙友宏 《探矿工程》2021,48(9):9-24

极地钻探是获取极地冰层或冰下环境样品和在极地冰层或冰下布放科学观测仪器的最直接方法,是开展极地科学研究的必要技术手段。美国是开展极地钻探较早的国家之一,也是极地钻探强国。相比美国,我国极地钻探技术尚处于起步阶段。本文以《美国冰钻委员会长期科学规划2021-2031》为基础,结合其官方网站和相关文献资料,梳理了美国极地钻探科学目标和极地钻探技术现状,并简要介绍了过去10年美国极地钻探的现场工作情况及其在未来3年的工作计划,以期为我国极地钻探发展提供参考。  相似文献   

南极东方站深冰层及冰下湖钻探技术          下载免费PDF全文

王秋雯  李冰  Pavel Talalay  孙友宏  张楠  宫达  杨阳  范晓鹏 《探矿工程》2021,48(9):34-45

自1970年至今,前苏联和俄罗斯在南极东方站持续进行了近50年的冰层钻探活动,先后攻克了包含粒雪层、冰层、冰岩夹层和湖水冻结冰的复杂冰层钻进难题,逐渐形成了一套集热融取芯钻探、电动机械取芯钻探和分支孔钻探等为一体的深冰芯钻探技术。创造了冰层最深干孔钻进深度记录（952.4 m）、最深热融取芯钻进记录（2755 m）、最深冰芯钻探记录（3769.3 m）,累计进尺达13000 m,并获取了总长超46 m的含湖水冻结冰样品的冰芯。东方站的钻探活动对极地冰层钻探技术的发展起到了巨大的推动和引领作用,同时积累了宝贵的深冰钻探经验。通过对东方站深冰钻探技术的系统梳理,将为我国正在实施的深冰芯钻探和即将开启的冰下湖科学钻探提供重要的借鉴。  相似文献   

六盘山区夏秋季大气水汽和液态水特征初步分析     

田磊  桑建人  姚展予  常倬林  单新兰  曹宁  孙艳桥 《气象与环境学报》2019,35(6):28-37

六盘山区是中国典型的农牧交错带和生态脆弱带,也是黄土高原重要的水源涵养地、生态保护区及国家级扶贫开发区。利用2017年6-11月隆德气象站地基多通道微波辐射计资料,结合同期平凉探空站及隆德地面降水等观测资料,分析了六盘山区夏秋季大气水汽、液态水变化特征。结果表明：六盘山区夏秋季在降水天气背景下,大气水汽含量和液态水含量均较高,分别为无降水天气背景下的1.4倍和7.0倍;降水天气背景下水汽在5000 m以下有明显的增加,且在此高度范围内的水汽密度随高度的递减率比无降水天气背景下明显偏小;各高度层的液态水相比无降水天气背景下均有明显增大,除6月外,主峰值均出现在0℃层高度层以下。六盘山区夏秋季各月中,6-9月。大气水汽含量高值区均出现在正午到傍晚时段,低值区均出现在日出前后;液态水含量在日出前、午后及傍晚分别出现峰值,最明显的峰值出现在午后。对一次对流性降水天气过程分析后发现,降水发生前40 min大气水汽含量和液态水含量出现两次明显的跃增,水汽向上输送不断加强,2500-7500 m高度的相对湿度明显增大。  相似文献